The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7275 on: January 30, 2011, 11:40:24 PM »

Wasn't that the same time as the Lewinsky denial???
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #7276 on: January 31, 2011, 01:13:53 AM »

Wasn't that the same time as the Lewinsky denial???

Yes, indeed it was. I've always found it amusing how Clinton's approval ratings remained consistently high throughout the Lewinsky scandal.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7277 on: January 31, 2011, 05:51:06 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2011, 11:36:44 PM by pbrower2a »

Nebraska, PPP.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NE_0131.pdf

This is complicated because the state splits its electoral votes. Statewide, Obama loses the state as a whole, but he wins the Second Congressional District against everyone else (here I take PPP at its word even if there is no specific poll shown for NE-02). One of the oddities of the 2008 election is preserved as a prospect for 2012.


Sarah Palin comes close to losing this very conservative state -- probably losing two Congressional Districts but winning the state at large, unless she slips even further. (She would win three electoral votes in Nebraska and Obama would win two, to make it clear).

Remember:

NE-01 (eastern Nebraska except for Greater Omaha. including Lincoln) voted like Texas and probably would do so again.

NE-02 (Greater Omaha within Nebraska) voted like Indiana in 2008 and I will reserve judgment on what state I compare it to -- until I see a poll for Indiana.

NE-03 (central and western Nebraska, including Scottsbluff and Grand Island) is one of the most conservative districts in America  and votes much like Wyoming.

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All major Republicans candidates project to do worse than did John McCain.  I am guessing that President Obama loses NE-01 by a high-single digit margin to the strongest Republican candidate (which I go with; Sarah Palin may completely disappear as a relevant candidate if she continues to fade in opinion polls).




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 108
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 27
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 56
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 4
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   17




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 108
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 27
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 4
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  17  




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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7278 on: January 31, 2011, 09:28:30 PM »

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hahaha
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7279 on: February 01, 2011, 01:25:35 AM »

Side note for pbrower2a's map:

Obama's approvals are actually broken down by Congressional District in the PPP release:

CD1: 35-57
CD2: 51-45
CD3: 28-67

(page 15)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NE_0131.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7280 on: February 01, 2011, 03:02:19 AM »
« Edited: February 01, 2011, 04:06:56 PM by pbrower2a »

Nebraska, PPP.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NE_0131.pdf

This is complicated because the state splits its electoral votes. Statewide, Obama loses the state as a whole, but he wins the Second Congressional District against everyone else (here I take PPP at its word even if there is no specific poll shown for NE-02). One of the oddities of the 2008 election is preserved as a prospect for 2012.


Sarah Palin comes close to losing this very conservative state -- probably losing two Congressional Districts but winning the state at large, unless she slips even further. (She would win three electoral votes in Nebraska and Obama would win two, to make it clear).

Remember:

NE-01 (eastern Nebraska except for Greater Omaha. including Lincoln) voted like Texas and probably would do so again.

NE-02 (Greater Omaha within Nebraska) voted like Indiana in 2008 and I will reserve judgment on what state I compare it to -- until I see a poll for Indiana.

NE-03 (central and western Nebraska, including Scottsbluff and Grand Island) is one of the most conservative districts in America  and votes much like Wyoming.

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All major Republican candidates project to do worse than did John McCain. I am guessing that President Obama loses NE-01 by a high-single digit margin to the strongest Republican candidate (which I go with; Sarah Palin may completely disappear as a relevant candidate if she continues to fade in opinion polls).

Thank you, Tender Branson, for finding what I was looking for.

Side note for pbrower2a's map:

Obama's approvals are actually broken down by Congressional District in the PPP release:

CD1: 35-57
CD2: 51-45
CD3: 28-67

(page 15)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NE_0131.pdf

Guesswork reworked for more reliable results.  




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 56
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7281 on: February 01, 2011, 01:01:43 PM »

Rasmussen Reports (February 1, 2011):


Presidential Approval: 50% approve (29% strongly)
                                    49% disapprove (40% strongly).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7282 on: February 01, 2011, 02:18:15 PM »

PPP/DailyKos now has seen the light in their weekly poll !

50% Approve
45% Disapprove

52% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

50% Obama
44% Generic Republican

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/1/27
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« Reply #7283 on: February 01, 2011, 04:29:38 PM »
« Edited: February 01, 2011, 04:35:20 PM by pbrower2a »

South Dakota, PPP.

If Senator John Thune were the GOP nominee, he would do better than George McGovern did at least in his own state. Note that he does about 10% better than Huckabee or Romney; take your pick on which one is closer to being "Generic Republican". You can play little games to see how much difference the Favorite Son effect had in the same State in 1972 (contrast 1972 to 1976 or North Dakota to South Dakota in 1972).



Notably, Obama not only defeats Sarah Palin, but also Newt Gingrich. He does not beat either Huckabee  or Romney.    A 42% approval rating is pretty good for a state that the incumbent lost about 54-45. The state would probably be close to an Obama win against anyone but John Thune  (safe for the GOP) or Sarah Palin (GOP disaster!)

2012 GE matchups:

37% Obama
57% Thune

41% Obama
47% Huckabee

40% Obama
46% Romney

44% Obama
42% Gingrich

48% Obama
40% Palin

Obama Approval Rating:

42-49

Thune Approval Rating:

58-31

Favorable Ratings:

40-30 Huckabee
35-34 Romney
31-43 Gingrich
37-55 Palin

PPP surveyed 1,045 South Dakota voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SD_0201513.pdf






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 41
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

(This time I am recalling Virginia, where in November no Republican stood to win against Obama in a PPP poll.)




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 10
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  62
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 41
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  






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J. J.
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« Reply #7284 on: February 01, 2011, 05:36:21 PM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, u.

Disapprove 49%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +2.

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Exopolitician
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« Reply #7285 on: February 01, 2011, 05:38:32 PM »

I wonder how the situation in Egypt will effect, if at all, his numbers.
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« Reply #7286 on: February 01, 2011, 09:53:28 PM »

I wonder how the situation in Egypt will effect, if at all, his numbers.

It's a high-risk, low-reward situation. The President must underplay his role.
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« Reply #7287 on: February 02, 2011, 01:29:27 AM »

I wonder how the situation in Egypt will effect, if at all, his numbers.

I'd be very surprised if it impacted his numbers at all. Sadly, I'd imagine many (if not most) Americans don't even realize anything is happening there... and surely some of the Americans that do don't care about it.
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« Reply #7288 on: February 02, 2011, 11:06:24 AM »

I wonder how the situation in Egypt will effect, if at all, his numbers.

I'd be very surprised if it impacted his numbers at all. Sadly, I'd imagine many (if not most) Americans don't even realize anything is happening there... and surely some of the Americans that do don't care about it.
Let's face it, how many Americans would even be able to point out Egypt on a map?
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« Reply #7289 on: February 02, 2011, 11:18:35 AM »

Obama Approval rating January 2011 (Gallup):

49% Approve

43% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 47/39 (January 1979)

Reagan: 36/54 (January 1983)

Bush I: 75/18 (January 1991)

Clinton: 47/45 (January 1995)

Bush II: 60/35 (January 2003)
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« Reply #7290 on: February 02, 2011, 11:39:49 AM »
« Edited: February 02, 2011, 11:56:42 AM by pbrower2a »

Arizona, PPP

Clinton won the state once (1996); Truman won it (1948). The only State not formerly part of the Confederacy to vote for Goldwater in 1964, it did go to its Favorite Son in 1964. It would have been close in 2008 had it not had a Favorite Son that year, which it won't have this time.   It looks like a close state in 2012, and the GOP certainly can't afford that. 45% approval now? That suggests about a 50-50 chance either way.

Two of the four most obvious potential GOP nominees win based on current polling; one ties, and Palin loses this state. But that is before the re-election campaign begins.

President Obama can win without Arizona; he'd have to win all  states that Dubya never won, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico first, which themselves would ensure a bare Obama victory. He'd also win Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and either Indiana or Missouri first and perhaps Georgia to have a real shot at Arizona.    
  
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_0202806.pdf

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Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 83
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 41
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

(This time I am recalling Virginia, where in November no Republican stood to win against Obama in a PPP poll.)




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 22
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  62
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 41
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  
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« Reply #7291 on: February 02, 2011, 12:32:42 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, -1.

Disapprove 50%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

Though well of the high, Obama's Strongly Disapprove number has jumped 6 points in just over a week.
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« Reply #7292 on: February 02, 2011, 03:46:05 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, -1.

Disapprove 50%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

Though well of the high, Obama's Strongly Disapprove number has jumped 6 points in just over a week.

Polarization, most likely.
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« Reply #7293 on: February 03, 2011, 10:57:48 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -2.

Disapprove 53%, +3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

I would not read too much into this; it could be an anti-Obama sample working through the system.
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« Reply #7294 on: February 03, 2011, 01:16:53 PM »

Okay, now its just getting sad.
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« Reply #7295 on: February 03, 2011, 02:45:47 PM »

FL (Quinnipiac):

47-49

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1555
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7296 on: February 03, 2011, 04:03:38 PM »
« Edited: February 03, 2011, 04:08:17 PM by pbrower2a »

Modified from a prior, now deleted post, to save space and recognize a significant change:  


South Carolina (PPP):

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_02021210.pdf

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A potential Favorite Son wins the state, and  both Huckabee or Romney do about as well. Gingrich loses a state that borders his and has similar demographics.  Sarah Palin? Any Republican intent on defeating President Obama had better look elsewhere.

Republicans must win this state decisively to win the Presidency -- and I would best describe the state as "shaky Republican".  


....

PPP just had a poll for the US Senate in California, and Diane Feinstein crushes everyone. I wouldn't lose any sleep over any chances of the GOP to win California in the Presidential election.  




 




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 53
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 41
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 55
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 10
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 23
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7297 on: February 04, 2011, 08:47:27 AM »


I wish they had polled some 2012 match-ups.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7298 on: February 04, 2011, 10:18:16 AM »
« Edited: February 04, 2011, 07:50:27 PM by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.

Possibly just a bad sample, however, the Strongly Approved number shown a prop outside of the sample range (though possibly not to dramatic). 
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -9.04

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« Reply #7299 on: February 04, 2011, 12:30:41 PM »

JJ that numbers don't make sense.
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