The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #7350 on: February 07, 2011, 08:15:40 PM »

That is interesting. It almost implies that the partisans on both sides get that Obama was doing just about anything that could be done, but those people in the middle think that a President has a magical power to make everything better. It explains why some independents swings around so much based on right track/wrong track, based on assumption that the Pres could fix economy overnight if he just really tried harder

It reminds me of that one scene in Family Guy in the Lois vs. Adam West debate all over again. The President is not a wizard folks, quit pretending he is.

Exactly.  And people still believe the weight of the world should fall on him alone.

It's either that people have alarmingly fantastical expectations or Americans really like intervention.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7351 on: February 07, 2011, 08:16:41 PM »

Perhaps independents are just very fickle.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7352 on: February 07, 2011, 11:16:53 PM »

Perhaps independents are just very fickle.

Fickle? No. They want good results and aren't patient enough to accept excuses. They are much more demanding than are partisan supporters.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7353 on: February 08, 2011, 09:58:26 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, -1.

The Strongly Approve number is now tied with the lowest number period from 1/19 to 2/2/11.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7354 on: February 08, 2011, 02:29:53 PM »
« Edited: February 09, 2011, 12:43:24 PM by pbrower2a »

PPP, Colorado, where 2012 looks more likely to resemble 2008 than 2004 in the Presidential election.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_0208424.pdf

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To save space, I am also putting New Mexico in. This is apparently not a swing state in 2012.

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As in California and Colorado, Sarah Palin is about as unfavorable as President Obama is in Idaho, Utah, or Wyoming.






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   73
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 53
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 57
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   73
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 55
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 10
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  




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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7355 on: February 08, 2011, 03:29:05 PM »

It was obvious from the midterms that Colorado has become a crucial state for the new Democratic coalition.
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5280
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« Reply #7356 on: February 08, 2011, 04:39:25 PM »

I plan on moving out of CO in a few years, probably to Texas or somewhere down south, thank god! CO is the next CA, believe it or not.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7357 on: February 09, 2011, 03:44:14 AM »

I plan on moving out of CO in a few years, probably to Texas or somewhere down south, thank god! CO is the next CA, believe it or not.

Arizona demographics are just behind Colorado, followed by Texas.

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Dgov
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« Reply #7358 on: February 09, 2011, 03:48:05 AM »

One thing I noticed about Obama's dip in the polls (at least in Gallup), ALL of the decline in support from Obama came from independents, Democrats and Republicans have remained constant in their approval of Obama in the past few days.

No.  His numbers are basically right back where they were on January 1st, and his current numbers are statistically identical to those ones in basically all the categories.  The only sub-group that has shown potentially significant movement is race, where his approval is up 7 points with Hispanics and down 8 with Blacks.


Why does everyone think this?  What's far more likely is that Obama just got a temporary start-of-the-year boost that has now faded back to normalcy.  Egypt's been over the news for the past week or so, sure, but it's nothing that directly affects the US (though it has plenty of secondary effects).  Voters don't think "Oh, there's something troubling happening in the world.   I don't like the president now".  Foreign events have to actually involve the US or be very much related to the US to actually affect US politics--something like Iran taking US hostages or the Soviet Union invading Afghanistan.  And even then, unless it reflects really badly on the US president, it's unlikely to actually move his approval ratings.

If voters really thought that the US president was responsible for making sure nothing bad happened in the world, ever, we wouldn't have elected Obama (who ran on a very non-interventionist platform) in the first place.
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5280
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« Reply #7359 on: February 09, 2011, 08:35:54 AM »

I plan on moving out of CO in a few years, probably to Texas or somewhere down south, thank god! CO is the next CA, believe it or not.

Arizona demographics are just behind Colorado, followed by Texas.



WTF else is there to move to escape the mental disorder?
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Sbane
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« Reply #7360 on: February 09, 2011, 08:44:01 AM »

I plan on moving out of CO in a few years, probably to Texas or somewhere down south, thank god! CO is the next CA, believe it or not.

Arizona demographics are just behind Colorado, followed by Texas.



WTF else is there to move to escape the mental disorder?

Somalia.
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Dgov
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« Reply #7361 on: February 09, 2011, 09:05:49 AM »

Gallup's timing seems too perfect sometimes:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/146021/Obama-Approval-Rating-Deficit-Sinks-New-Low.aspx

Apparently Obama's handling of Egypt is apparently the only major issue where he has a better-than-statistically-tied approval rating (47-32 approve), is slightly above even in foreign affairs, Afghanistan, and energy policy (48-45, 47-46, and 43-42, respectively), and negative on taxes, health care, the economy and the deficit.

In fact, it looks like the Deficit is the issue hurting him the most right now, as not only does it give him the worst spread by far (27-68), but it's also the only one that Independents are really sour on him for (approval rating of 19%, while in the high 30s and low 40s for all the others).

Then again, i don't think the Republican's numbers are going to be much better on the deficit.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7362 on: February 09, 2011, 10:40:53 AM »

One thing I noticed about Obama's dip in the polls (at least in Gallup), ALL of the decline in support from Obama came from independents, Democrats and Republicans have remained constant in their approval of Obama in the past few days.

No.  His numbers are basically right back where they were on January 1st, and his current numbers are statistically identical to those ones in basically all the categories.  The only sub-group that has shown potentially significant movement is race, where his approval is up 7 points with Hispanics and down 8 with Blacks.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/politics.aspx
Take a look at Obama job approval by party affiliation, Independents went from 49% approve to 42%, in the same time from, Democrats went from 84% to 83%, while Republicans went from 14% to (gasp) 14%.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7363 on: February 09, 2011, 10:44:07 AM »
« Edited: February 10, 2011, 09:57:08 AM by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.

My guess is that Egypt is what drove the numbers down.

Edit: Typo, obviously not "59."
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exopolitician
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« Reply #7364 on: February 09, 2011, 11:49:26 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 59%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.

My guess is that Egypt is what drove the numbers down.

?!

I would hope not...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7365 on: February 09, 2011, 12:45:18 PM »

Obivous typo corrected:

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.

My guess is that Egypt is what drove the numbers down.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7366 on: February 09, 2011, 02:11:31 PM »

NM (PPP): 55-40

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_0209513.pdf

NJ (Quinnipiac): 55-41

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1556
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7367 on: February 09, 2011, 02:25:07 PM »

NC (High Point University):

48-44

http://acme.highpoint.edu/~mkifer/src/Sixthmemo.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7368 on: February 09, 2011, 02:26:54 PM »

Reuters/Ipsos:

51-46

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/09/us-usa-poll-idUSTRE7183Q820110209
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7369 on: February 09, 2011, 02:35:40 PM »

^ All of those look pretty good for Obama.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7370 on: February 09, 2011, 03:06:02 PM »

Gallup Obama Job Approval: http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
Approval: 47 (+1)
Disapproval 44 (-1)

Obama appears to be rebounding on Gallup as well.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #7371 on: February 09, 2011, 03:14:43 PM »

Hmmm, seems like the creep back to positive approval was genuine recovery rather than a temporary "rally around the flag" bounce.

In large part this can be explained by the Gallup (IIRC) poll showing the highest number of American optimistic about the economy in some three years...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7372 on: February 09, 2011, 04:04:42 PM »
« Edited: February 09, 2011, 04:06:35 PM by pbrower2a »

NJ, NC polls:





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   58
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 57
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   58
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 10
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  




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5280
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« Reply #7373 on: February 09, 2011, 10:50:39 PM »

pbrower goes back on ignore once again.

Favoring PPP over others is biased. You know PPP is a liberal leaning polling source right? Enough of the gibberish nonsense.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7374 on: February 09, 2011, 11:27:00 PM »

pbrower goes back on ignore once again.

Favoring PPP over others is biased. You know PPP is a liberal leaning polling source right? Enough of the gibberish nonsense.

I accept Quinnipiac, and I accepted Rasmussen when it was giving statewide approval ratings. I also accepted a couple new polls from entities that I know little about. The "S" on Georgia is a question more of my interpretation of a novel presentation of polling data (rate from "1" to "5")

PPP simply dominates in sheer number of polls.  If you have some question about PPP methodology, then explain it.  I have rejected pollsters only when they are associated heavily with partisan entities. An example is Magellan, which polls on behalf of Republican candidates and state Republican parties.

What would I not accept from a pollster on the other side? One that polls on behalf of the Democratic Party or its candidates, unions, the NAACP, MALDEF, LULAC, the League of Conservation Voters, the Sierra Club, or NARAL.  If I wouldn't accept one by the National Association of Manufacturers, the National Rifle Association, or the National Right to Work Association, then I shouldn't accept polls from groups similarly to the left that have a vested interest in legislation.

As for predicting the 2012 Presidential election, I translate approval ratings into a prediction of what happens. Does anyone think that Barack Obama is an inept campaigner? Do you expect one of the most effective get-out-the-vote machines to reappear in the late summer and early autumn of 2012?

So far I have found some surprises. Most remarkably, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, most people's first-choice predictions for the Republican nominee do about as well in every state so far polled. Gingrich does worse, and Sarah Palin is doing execrably.   Indeed she is doing especially badly in California, Colorado, and New Mexico. Contrast her speech to that of Barack Obama and ask yourself whose speech is more easily understood by someone whose first language isn't English (irrespective of current proficiency in English)  or through translation. Neither Romney not Huckabee has quite that problem.

PPP has matchups as well as approval ratings.  Such is telling. 
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