Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[pbrower2a]

TX can vote to the left of FL due to fact Mexicans are far more liberal due to immigration reform than Cubans. Also, IA is Lean R

On the other hand, the more despotic or dictatorial he gets, the more Donald Trump reminds Cuban-Americans of someone that most of them despise:



which has nothing to do with a left-right divide.

[pbrower2a]

State polls conducted by TIPP for American Greatness SuperPAC (R), June 9-11.


Michigan: 907 RV

Approve 38
Disapprove 55

Biden 50, Trump 37 (among 859 LV: Biden 51, Trump 38)


Florida: 910 RV

Approve 42
Disapprove 52

Biden 50, Trump 40 (among 875 LV: Biden 51, Trump 40)

Michigan looks really solid for Biden.  Trump may not be the biggest disappointment in Michigan (the Detroit Cocker Spaniels baseball team and the Detroit Wrecked Wings hockey team are bigger disappointments to Michiganders)... but get disapproval in the 55% range and you are looking at a double-digit loss in November.

The 50-40 split in the match-up between Biden and Trump suggests much the same, although I usually suggest that voting tends to go among the undecided ineffectively toward the eventual loser

52% disapproval for the incumbent President at this stage is nearly impossible to shake. At that number I can imagine Florida being called for Biden before the states on the West Coast are.

50% is a definitive win in any state.

New Mexico: PPP, June 12-13, 740 RV

Approve 37
Disapprove 55

Biden 53, Trump 39

No real surprise here except for the extreme level of disapproval. New Mexico could be decided by a high-teens margin.

Georgia: PPP, June 12-13, 661 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 47

Biden 48, Trump 46

Ossoff 45, Perdue 44

 

More credible than the Arkansas poll that suggested that Trump had 50% disapproval in Arkansas (although he would win the match-up if nothing else changed).

....between polls in states as diverse as Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and New Mexico, I see signs of a blue wave (OK, Atlas Red).

My suggestion for Trump supporters on Election Night: Turner Classic Movies rarely disappoints, at least if hockey or basketball is not yet being played. I no longer have cable, and Turner Classic Movies is the cable channel I most miss.  

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

Ds arent winning AR, but AK is more winnable due to Senate race

The only way in which the Democrats win Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, or West Virginia (states that Bill Clinton won twice but that Barack Obama lost by double-digit margins in both 2008 and 2012) is if the political orientations of those states revert to what they were in the 1990's. Such is unlikely for any one of those states. These states are not undergoing demographic change likely to swing them D as is so in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, or Texas.

I have no polling data on Alaska. This said, Trump promised much to the fossil-fuels industry and has delivered little. Alaska depends heavily upon fossil fuels (meaning, of course, oil).

[pbrower2a]

...another utility, and a new one.


Nate Silver
✔
@NateSilver538
Elasticity ratings for 2020! Elasticity scores reflect how much a state’s polls would be expected to change based on a change in national. e.g. if Idaho’s elasticity score is 1.1, a 5-point swing in national polls would be expected to produce a 1.1 x 5 = 5.5-point swing in Idaho.





New Hampshire is the most elastic of states in its voting, so at an elasticity of 1.29, a 5% change in the vote would move New Hampshire an estimated 6.45% Among states, Mississippi is least elastic at 0.79%, so a 5% swing in the national vote would move Mississippi a mere 3.95%.

Exactly even is Indiana, which is something of a surprise in view of 2004-2008-2012, 10% shifts both times. Kentucky is also even.

[pbrower2a]

Trump's numbers will go up/come home on culture war issues. This is why Democrats need to focus on turnout.

Well, when Trump stood on Lafayette Square with a bible in his hand and said how nice the police cut into protesters like it was "butter", it didn't work out that well. These culture wars may energize some of his base, but he needs a couple of swing voters. The economy may have been a compelling argument here, but this has also gone away. I agree, however, Democrats must maximize turnout through offering a different vision.

"We don't need a stinking dictator!"

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire: St. Anselm College, June 13-16, 1072 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 57

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 53

Biden 49, Trump 42

It doesn't change the map on page 83.

57% disapproval in what is usually a swing state? Horrible news for the President.

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota, Gravis: Trump approval 42 and disapproval 56. Unless something really changes, Minnesota should go for Biden by a double-digit margin.

According to the poll, President Trump has a job approval rating in the state of Minnesota at 42% approve and 56% disapprove. 83% of Republicans approve of the job the President is doing while 84% of Democrats disapprove.  The elected official Minnesotans approve of the most at this time is Governor Tim Walz who earns a 61%-37% approval split. One third of Republicans in the poll indicated that they approve of the job Walz has done as Governor.  Minnesota’s two Senators also receive positive marks with Amy Klobuchar at 55%-36% and Tina Smith at 46%-36%. 

 

Voters were asked about the guilt of the four officers charged in the death of George Floyd and most have an opinion.  51% indicated that they believe all four charged Minneapolis police officers are guilty while 29% said only Derek Chauvin is guilty and 4% said that none of the officers are guilty. 55% of voters approve of the decision to put Attorney General Keith Ellison in charge of the prosecution of the four officers while 34% disapprove.

 

When asked about recent protests around the country, 60% of Minnesota voters have a somewhat or mostly positive view of the protests while 36% have a somewhat or mostly negative view. 57% approve of the Black Lives Matter movement while 38% disapprove.

 

There is broad approval for the local police departments of voters.  68% approve of the job performance of their local police department with 17% disapproving. When asked specifically about the Minneapolis police department, 62% indicated that the department should be reformed, 9% want the department defunded, 8% said demilitarized, 7% want it disbanded, and 14% feel that no change is needed. 23% of Republicans feel that no change is needed while 6% say disband, 4% say demilitarize, 2% say defund and 64% say reformed.  6% of Democrats feel that no change is needed while 17% say defund, 9% say disband, 10% say demilitarize and 58% say reformed. 65% of independents want the department reformed and 5% want the department disbanded.

 

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research p2p texting and data firm. This poll of 600 registered voters in Minnesota was conducted on June 19th and has a margin of error of ±4%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing.  Results are weighted by voting demographics.  Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan. 

 Minnesota (June 19, 2020)

https://www.gravismarketing.com/gravis-minnesota-poll-results/

Pro-police, but against brutal policing. I guess that is fairly representative of America. Minnesotans do not believe that their state is singled out...

Trump is fantastically unpopular in Minnesota this time; it is hard to believe that Minnesota was close in 2016. It ain't now.




 

 

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher



[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Remember: Donald Trump got a mere 45.92% of the popular vote and still won the Electoral College Note well:

1. The youngest voters are still about 20% more D than R in a normal election They supplant as a rule voters over 55 who are the vast majority of voters who die at a normal rate of 1.5% a year, then that demographic shift is enough to shift 1.5% over four years. That drops President Trump's likely share of the electorate to 44.4%, which is not enough with which to win re-election. Because that swing is even across the states, that will be enough to swing Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin alone. Perhaps Florida is getting older voters to move in, but even if Florida were getting voters roughly 0.5% R to replace about half of the older voters dying off, one could expect some other state to switch from R to D as it attracts younger voters (North Carolina?) or Californians (Arizona?).

2. The 2018 midterm elections still have something to say. Democrats won pluralities of the vote for House seats in every state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016... and Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Wisconsin. To be sure, Republicans can win gubernatorial races on statewide issues such as education, transportation, and state budgets, and they can win House seats gerrymandered in their favot, they cannot gerrymander the total state vote for Congress into statewide wins. It is more ambiguous on Florida and North Carolina... If the 2018 midterms aren't a slap-down of President Trump, then what are they? ME-02 did go to the Democrat... so based upon the statewide ballots for the House, Biden wins anywhere from 296 to 340 electoral votes in 2020.

3. Approval numbers matter:

   

The 43% approval may be charitable in view of where the President's approval ratings are in some states and in nationwide polling.

[pbrower2a]

Texas: PPP, June 18-19, 907 RV

Approve 48
Disapprove 46

Trump 48, Biden 46

Not as big a change as the color change suggests.  The voting choice of those polled was 50 Trump - 41 Clinton, and Trump now has a 2% lead over Biden. The good news for Trump is that he has a slightly-better-than-even chance of holding Texas and staving off a 400-EV loss to a Democratic challenger. The bad news is that a 7% shift in Texas against him is close to the national average,and that means that Trump has as the prospect losing to Biden who gets somewhere between 290 and 375 electoral votes.   

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

Ds arent winning AR, sorry

Obvious outlier, and the only way in which any Democrat wins Arkansas is that the state reverts to patterns that it had with Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1992 and 1996.

This said, there were plenty of polls that nobody believed in 2016 that suggested that Trump was winning some states that he ended up winning.

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin: Marquette Law, June 18-21, 805 RV (change from early May)

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+2)

Biden 49 (+3), Trump 41 (-2)

Within range on the disapproval, but an 8% gap in support against the President with little over four months to go is difficult to undo.

Ohio: Quinnipiac, June 18-22, 1139 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 53

Biden 46, Trump 45

Is there any question that if Ohio is a potential loss for the President that Michigan and Pennsylvania are both decisively gone against the President? An incumbent President does not win a state in which his disapproval is above 51% in late June. Biden has far more chance to gain votes in Ohio from this near-tie than does Trump.  

North Carolina: PPP, June 22-23, 1157 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 47

Biden 48, Trump 46

Cunningham 44, Tillis 40

Cooper 50, Forest 41

Within the margin of error, but still a more likely Biden win than  a Trump win.  

If I am to give odds on Trump winning these states, Arizona, Florida (I will get back to you after I seek out the last credible poll), Iowa,  Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Texas:

AZ
FL
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 20 Trump 80
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1275943304627212289

Trump has had a reservoir of good will, and he has gotten away with much until he does real harm (like his bungled response to COVID-19) or scares people (endorsing violence, as for his sacrilegious display of a Bible). Trump got impeached for an effort to induce a foreign leader to expose dirt on Hinter Biden, surviving son of his main opponent... and got away with it.

His polls went down during what looked like a panic in the financial markets, but that reversed... for now. If the Dow goes back into the teens by Election Day, then he is in big trouble on that again.

It may be too early to establish that the reservoir of good will that he used to have is no more. But another factor is intervening against which Trump can do nothing. Unlike baseball but like most other sports, political races are timed events. Baseball teams have undone eight-run leads late in the game and can turn a near-zero chance of winning for a team down 8-0 at the start of its batting half of the seventh inning into an 85% chance of winning the game. (Take a look at Game 4 of the 1929 World Series between the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Athletics; Connie Mack's Philadelphia Athletics scored ten runs in its half of the seventh inning)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHA/PHA192910120.shtml

In contrast, American football is a timed sport, and there are ways of making a twenty-point lead stick. I used to live in the Dallas area, and I saw lots of Cowboys games. Head Coach Tom Landry had a strategy that he could use to ensure  a win after scoring 20-30 points in the fourth quarter. Running up the score? That's kid stuff. Landry made the clock his ally as his twelfth man. On offense he committed to a time-killing offense that depends upon grinding out yards on running plays... five yards a play, and do that enough and you can get a ten-minute drive that either puts the opposing team in a bad field position or gets a field goal that might not be the killing play. On the other hand, Landry put a defensive strategy known as the nickel defense... five defensive backs to thwart practically any pass play that might be good for a good gain. So if the team behind tries to turn the game around fast, five defensive backs turn that effort into a high-risk effort that can result in an inordinate number of interceptions that might even result in defensive touchdowns causing things to go very bad even fast. The opposing team could spend three quarters looking good while losing or risk looking really bad due to interceptions.

Joe Biden may not have the political equivalent of Tom Landry's nickel defense on the political field yet, but I can see that happening.       

[pbrower2a]

Once again, 2016 this is not:

ARIZONA
Trump approval: 42/55 (-13)
Trump fav: 43/55 (-12)
Biden fav: 46/48 (-2)

FLORIDA
Trump approval: 43/54 (-11)
Trump fav: 43/55 (-12)
Biden fav: 47/47 (=)

MICHIGAN
Trump approval: 41/55 (-14)
Trump fav: 42/55 (-13)
Biden fav: 50/45 (+5)

NORTH CAROLINA
Trump approval: 45/52 (-7)
Trump fav: 44/52 (-8)
Biden fav: 51/46 (+5)

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump approval: 41/56 (-15)
Trump fav: 42/56 (-14)
Biden fav: 50/48 (+2)

WISCONSIN
Trump approval: 41/56 (-15)
Trump fav: 43/56 (-13)
Biden fav: 53/45 (+8)

...here is how it translates into the prospective vote:

Arizona: Biden 48%, Trump 41%

Florida: Biden 47%, Trump 41%

Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%

North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 40%

Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 40%

Wisconsin: Biden 49%, Trump 38%

...just let that sink in. Trump cannot yet crack 41% in any of these states, but Biden has hit at least 47% in all of them. Horrid disapproval numbers in each of them ensure that the President cannot crack 47 in any of them. Unless something changes catastrophically for Biden or some demonic miracle delivers for Trump, then Trump loses. The object of approval ratings is to predict an electoral result, and when the approval ratings are this bad this early, and one can't associate them with some emotional roller-coaster (like the latitude of the front in the Korean War) that can swing wildly, then the President cannot win.


If I am to give odds on Trump winning these states, Arizona, Florida (I will get back to you after I seek out the last credible poll), Iowa,  Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Texas:

and now I get to handicap Arizona and Florida based on a very recent poll

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 80 Trump 20
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 20 Trump 80
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

The states swing together. But a lamebrained attack on a Governor doing her job right  instead of obeying him and letting her state take the hit for his incompetence and cruelty was a bad idea:

Shocker! It looks like Trump picking a fight with Michigan was - surprisingly - a terrible move by him!

A high-profile clash with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan encapsulates the president’s challenge. Mr. Trump sided with protesters who opposed her stay-at-home orders, but voters in the state oppose the protests against social distancing restrictions by 57 percent to 37 percent.

As of now, 59 percent of voters in Michigan disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, the highest level of disapproval in any battleground state polled. And nearly 40 percent of registered voters there, including 11 percent of Republicans, say he has treated their state worse than others in response to the pandemic.

I may be citing Sun Tzu or Clausewitz (I have not read them) without knowing it, but it is best to choose battles wisely. The fascists thought that waging war against a country led by a cripple would be far easier than it turned out to be. Leadership is far more a matter of intellect than of legwork.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

With the awful poll numbers we haven't heard from Trump troupe for a while. Trump isn't beating Biden not would he have beaten Bernie with these bad poll numbers, no matter how badly Trump wants to get reelected.  He won in 2016 with help from Johnson and Obama's 3.5 percent unemployment. The tax cuts contributed to deficits and we have 45 M unemployment and we are in the Trump economy.

Obama raised taxes and didn't contribute to deficit tax cuts

Just to remind you of the usual prattle:

1. No vote has yet been cast, and there is plenty of time for Americans to come to their senses  and vote for Trump.

2. Trump has a super-secret strategy that will work in the end. How super-secret? It has yet to form!

3. Joe Biden will be linked to a scandal, even if the scandal or the connection is fabricated.

4. An economic miracle will happen.

5. People will quit caring about the 120K + people who died as a result of COVID-19.

6. Trump won in 2016, and we haven't seen an incumbent President lose after only one term of his Party's Presidency in the White House since 1980.

7. All electoral seasons are dynamic, and good things can happen for Trump.

8. Polls are meaningless four months out. As just about every political loser says, "the only poll that matters is the electoral result".

...it is far more likely that the British Royal Family will find a way in which to cut Prince Andrew out of the line of succession and make it stick. It is also more likely that the Detroit Tigers will win the 2020 World Series (although I can imagine the World Series going on in November due to a delayed, if still truncated, season, so that may not be relevant). OK, supposedly the Detroit Tigers have some better pitching this time... and it is also theoretically possible that CATS will win an Academy Award for Best Picture. Or that a snowstorm will make a mess of Houston traffic in July.

[pbrower2a]

Consequences of poor approval numbers:

FL

Biden 49
Trump 40

GA

Biden 47
Trump 45

NC

Biden 47
Trump 45

TX

Biden 45
Trump 44

FoX polls are generally reliable.

[pbrower2a]

Still don't believe any of these polls.

Then what will you believe?

[pbrower2a]

Fox News state polls, June 20-23


Florida: 1010 RV (change from April)

Approve 44 (-7)
Disapprove 53 (+6)

Strongly approve 32 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+6)

Biden 49 (+3), Trump 40 (-3)


Georgia: 1013 RV

Approve 47
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 33
Strongly disapprove 42

Biden 47, Trump 45

Perdue 45, Ossoff 42


North Carolina: 1012 RV

Approve 48
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 33
Strongly disapprove 44

Biden 47, Trump 45

Cunningham 39, Tillis 37


Texas: 1001 RV

Approve 50
Disapprove 48

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 40

Biden 45, Trump 44

...here is how it translates into the prospective vote:

Arizona: Biden 48%, Trump 41%

Florida: Biden 47%, Trump 41%

Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%

North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 40%

Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 40%

Wisconsin: Biden 49%, Trump 38%

...just let that sink in. Trump cannot yet crack 41% in any of these states, but Biden has hit at least 47% in all of them. Horrid disapproval numbers in each of them ensure that the President cannot crack 47 in any of them. Unless something changes catastrophically for Biden or some demonic miracle delivers for Trump, then Trump loses. The object of approval ratings is to predict an electoral result, and when the approval ratings are this bad this early, and one can't associate them with some emotional roller-coaster (like the latitude of the front in the Korean War) that can swing wildly, then the President cannot win.


If I am to give odds on Trump winning these states, Arizona, Florida (I will get back to you after I seek out the last credible poll), Iowa,  Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Texas:

and now I get to handicap Arizona and Florida based on a very recent poll

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 40 Trump 60
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

The states swing together. But a lamebrained attack on a Governor doing her job right  instead of obeying him and letting her state take the hit for his incompetence and cruelty was a bad idea:

Shocker! It looks like Trump picking a fight with Michigan was - surprisingly - a terrible move by him!

A high-profile clash with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan encapsulates the president’s challenge. Mr. Trump sided with protesters who opposed her stay-at-home orders, but voters in the state oppose the protests against social distancing restrictions by 57 percent to 37 percent.

As of now, 59 percent of voters in Michigan disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, the highest level of disapproval in any battleground state polled. And nearly 40 percent of registered voters there, including 11 percent of Republicans, say he has treated their state worse than others in response to the pandemic.

I may be citing Sun Tzu or Clausewitz (I have not read them) without knowing it, but it is best to choose battles wisely. The fascists thought that waging war against a country led by a cripple would be far easier than it turned out to be. Leadership is far more a matter of intellect than of legwork.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Texas in middle blue but Arkansas middle-red? Freakish character of some recent polls. Trump got 50% disapproval but with approval close to 50% in Arkansas, but he got 50% approval with 48% disapproval in Texas. Weird. Biden is one point ahead in the match-up in Texas. Go figure.

[pbrower2a]

The one good thing Biden has done is not side against the police and enforcing the law. If he had done so he would have had a serious problem with looking weak on law enforcement. 

The most recent poll in Minnesota suggested that Minnesota voters are not really anti-police; they are against unjustifiable brutality by police. They accept that police departments need to do better scrutiny of police recruits and better training of police. Reforming police work so that it becomes more community-based might make it look more like social work with a badge... but with te badge comes the ability to make an arrest. Community-based policing has been shown to be more effective than traditional police work in communities that have had cause to distrust the police. "Storefront police" are more effective at discovering the local dynamics of life. The police officers get to know which black man who owns a Cadillac is a physician and which one is a pimp or pusher.

Community policing is more effective at developing rapport between the police and communities -- and detecting the bad guys. Whatever helps  make police work more effective without making it more brutal (which means militarized) is a win-win situation for everyone but the criminals.

F--- the criminals! 

[pbrower2a]

Why are we obsessed with polls, as long as Biden is leading by 3 to 5 points the 278 to 260 blue wall is reaffirmed. There is not any Justin Amash to take 3 percent of the vote and 3.5 percent unemployment to help Trump seek out a narrow victory again in the Rust belt

Perhaps because America is so polarized between Left and Right (think of Spain in the 1930's) and because so many Americans despise the current President (as if such were not so with Dubya abd Obama as well.

The integrity of the current President is as lacking as his ruthlessness is abundant. Some of the people around him are going to need to find another country if Trump loses. If losing means a potential stay in prison, then you just might seek to win at all costs.

With disapproval numbers as they are and Biden having huge leads by historical standards in match-up polling, it is hard to see Trump winning honestly. Dishonestly? Ay, there's the rub.

[pbrower2a]

44% of registered voters in North Carolina approve of President Trump’s overall job performance, with 51% disapproving. When asked about President Trump’s handling of the federal government’s response to the coronavirus, 42% percent approve compared to 51% who disapprove. An even smaller percentage (35%) approve of President Trump’s handling of the nationwide protests over the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, while 52% disapprove.

https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/presidential-and-senate-elections-remain-highly-competitive-in-battleground-north-carolina-cooper-continues-to-lead-forest-in-race-for-governor

This does not change the map. President Trump is in a precarious spot in an electorally-large state that he absolutely must win but that in no way ensures him of a victory in the Electoral College. COVID-19 is not going away, and Trump is getting nothing from his dismissal of protests against a horrible case of inexcusable police brutality.

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less (Maine excluded) does not change.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 40 Trump 60
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

The states swing together. But a lamebrained attack on a Governor doing her job right  instead of obeying him and letting her state take the hit for his incompetence and cruelty was a bad idea:

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

Texas: PPP, June 24-25, 729 RV

Approve 46
Disapprove 51

Biden 48, Trump 46

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/TXToplines7220.pdf

Texas is a legitimate toss-up this time, and I don't see things getting better for Trump.

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less (Maine excluded) does not change.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 55 Trump 45
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I have been slow to give Joe Biden any edge in Texas, but I do now. COVID-19 has spiked in Texas, transforming at the least Houston and San Antonio into medical equivalents of slaughterhouses. 

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

With these numbers, Georgia would be the first state to flip, as it counts its votes unusually fast. It was a fairly quick call for McCain in 2008 even if it was fairly close.

But that is a nitpick. 

[pbrower2a]

Civiqs approval tracker - 7/1

National: 41/55 (-14)

Alaska: 47/50 (-3)
Arizona: 42/54 (-12)
Colorado: 36/60 (-24)
Florida: 44/52 (-8)
Georgia: 44/52 (-8)
Iowa: 45/52 (-7)
Kansas: 50/46 (+4)
Maine: 36/61 (-25)
Michigan: 41/55 (-14)
Minnesota: 38/59 (-21)
Montana: 48/49 (-1)
Nevada: 37/59 (-22)
New Hampshire: 36/59 (-23)
New Mexico: 42/54 (-12)
North Carolina: 44/53 (-9)
Ohio: 46/51 (-5)
Pennsylvania: 43/53 (-10)
South Carolina: 50/47 (+3)
Texas: 48/49 (-1)
Virginia: 39/57 (-18)
Wisconsin: 44/53 (-9)

Those Montana, Kansas, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas #s *eye emoji*

Got a link?

[pbrower2a]

Pbower 2a never goes into the Congressional polls where Rs are doing much better than in the Prez polls where they only show RV polls and Biden polls plus 12 numbers, which isnt gonna happen

Why doesnt he respond to ME polls showing Collins up by 8 or McSally now up by 4

I've seen polls in which one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is amazingly close yet the other two aren't -- with all three states, as I recall, being ties or even having Trump leads. Such polls look manipulated, perhaps for the benefit of fundraising for some house or Senate campaigns.

Polls commissioned to get a pre-selected result are junk.

I have seen outliers, and sometimes outliers indicate that something is changing dramatically -- as withe the Trump surge or Clinton collapse in 2016.

What does President Trump have going for him?