Texas 2022 megathread

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Abbott will easily win over perennial candidate O'Rourke by double digits.

This. I think the TX Democrats will regret trotting this guy out there again, especially after he let the mask slip on his second amendment views.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Lmao! Safe R, Abbott +17

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1460255699364155394?s=20

In this midterm environment, I don't think this is that much of a stretch. My guess is R+12 on the low end and R+16 on the high end.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

For comparison sake, CBS/YouGOv's last poll of TX in 2020 was in September and had Trump +2 (48-46), so not extremely helpful since it was still a month and a half before the election. They nailed Bidens % though.

I'm very inclined to think the same thing is happening here. The 39-44% range we see for Beto in these polls is probably exactly where he will land come election day. Abbott's #s are way too low.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1579226077045854208

Beto is somehow winning the sign war in rural Texas, at least the hill country area. Saw more Beto signs than republican signs on my road trip

I'm highly skeptical of this being anything meaningful. Polling averages have been extremely accurate in predicting the final Dem vote share in TX but often not the margin. For example, most polling averages correctly had Biden at around 46% and Trump at around 47%. It doesn't take a genius to realize that 46 + 47 is only 93 and third parties aren't pulling 7% of the vote. Predictably, 5 of the 7 remaining points went to the Republican candidate as Trump won 52% of the vote. Beto has been locked in these averages right around 43%.

If that doesn't improve by election day, I don't foresee a single digit margin. The math just doesn't add up unless one can find overwhelming evidence of a magical hidden Beto vote. That's more consistent with a 55-43 Abbott win and it just so happens to very neatly coincide with a 6 or so point swing from a D+4.5 2020 national environment to an R+1.5 national environment which is in all likelihood within a point of what will actually happen barring any absolutely insane October surprises between now and election day. That said, if anyone was to break their polling averages, it would be Beto since he's the only one to have done that recently to any meaningful degree. The concern this time is that there isn't a D+9 national environment with an R president to help him out and the surge in turnout among marginal Dem voters (and the depressed turnout among Rs) that comes with that.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Beto is going to outwork his way to another very close loss.

A very close 10 point loss

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

I just cannot see Beto winning Hispanics by 30. I don’t even think Hillary Clinton won them by that much (at least in Texas)?

According to NBC, she won Latinos by 27% in Texas (compared to 36% nationwide).

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/tx/

Yea, no way Beto overperforms Hillary Clinton of all people with Hispanics. I say he wins them by mid single digits, if he wins then at all.

You think Hispanics will swing over 20%?

Okay, I'll take that bet. I'll say he wins Hispanics by, minimum, 15-20%.

I'll split the difference. 55-45 or a 10 point margin in favor of Beto.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Exit Polls showed Governor Abbott winning 40 % of the Hispanic Vote. Abbott also had a 55/45 Job Approval in the State.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/texas-governor-results
Democrats may think twice now contesting Texas in 2024.

The Party ID in Texas in 2022 was:
R - 41
D - 30
I - 29

On a sidenote, all the Progressive Candidates Olowakandi endorsed LOST.

What really shocked me was the CNN exit poll. It had Abbott at 48% with Asian voters. I would have expected something more like 38%.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Looks like Bell County zoomed R pretty hard this cycle vs 2020. It shifted 11 points, right up there with many of the rurals.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

How did Beto do in Uvalde?

He lost it by 22.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Not sure how the takeaway is Texas voting for an incumbent Governor by less than what he won by in a D wave year is that Dems should stop investing in Texas. If anything this is an encouraging result in the state lmao.

I suppose, but that's about how Bill White did in 2010 in a much redder year. If you adjust for the national environment and population shifts in the last decade, White had a much more impressive performance.