IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

This thread has the same vibes as the last minute Marquette shock poll that had Hillary leading by a narrow margin for two of the four polling days (and a more comfortable margin the other two days)

I think Biden still wins, but I might adjust my prediction down from 355 EVs to more like 320-330.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Acknowledging small sample sizes, my experience with phonebanking/canvassing tells me that "don't wanna tell you my vote" probably tilts towards older voters. I also suspect Trump has more support in that group than Biden.

Oddly, the only age group Biden is winning in this poll is 65+.

Makes sense. There was almost no age gap in the 2016 exits. Trump's margin with youngs was already 3 points higher than it was with seniors then.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wait, is Trump really leading the youth vote in this poll?

It's a heavily white midwestern state, of course he is.

Stop it. Hillary won the youth vote in Iowa in 2016. There is no way that Trump is winning it this year against Biden.

Wait what? What is the source for that? Exit polls had Trump winning, and an article on the youth vote helping Democrats even cites Iowa as a counterexample to this fact.