Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[Spectator]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

[Spectator]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

My point is that it has some residual democratic strength downballot.. Klobuchar, Walz, Tina Smith etc.. have either carried or kept it within low single digits in recent years.

That sounds like a cope. This special indicates the environment is neutral.

[Spectator]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

My point is that it has some residual democratic strength downballot.. Klobuchar, Walz, Tina Smith etc.. have either carried or kept it within low single digits in recent years.

That sounds like a cope. This special indicates the environment is neutral.

How is it a cope to provide factual analysis on a district lol.

The implication was you’re excusing Finstad’s performance by comparing it to a Dem Governor who previously represented the seat in Congress and overperformed Clinton by double digits in 2016 in said district. And comparing it to Klobuchar’s performance when she has always won statewide by 20%+

This is not a seat that should be in single digits in a Republican wave year.

[Spectator]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

My point is that it has some residual democratic strength downballot.. Klobuchar, Walz, Tina Smith etc.. have either carried or kept it within low single digits in recent years.

That sounds like a cope. This special indicates the environment is neutral.

How is it a cope to provide factual analysis on a district lol.

The implication was you’re excusing Finstad’s performance by comparing it to a Dem Governor who previously represented the seat in Congress and overperformed Clinton by double digits in 2016 in said district. And comparing it to Klobuchar’s performance when she has always won statewide by 20%+

This is not a seat that should be in single digits in a Republican wave year.

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

I know what your point was. And that doesn’t change the fact it’s an indicator of a neutral environment.

[Spectator]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

My point is that it has some residual democratic strength downballot.. Klobuchar, Walz, Tina Smith etc.. have either carried or kept it within low single digits in recent years.

That sounds like a cope. This special indicates the environment is neutral.

How is it a cope to provide factual analysis on a district lol.

The implication was you’re excusing Finstad’s performance by comparing it to a Dem Governor who previously represented the seat in Congress and overperformed Clinton by double digits in 2016 in said district. And comparing it to Klobuchar’s performance when she has always won statewide by 20%+

This is not a seat that should be in single digits in a Republican wave year.

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

In 2018 it voted for every Republican for statewide office except Walz (as his home district) and Klobuchar (who won in a crushing landslide.) Even Tina Smith lost it both times.

Yes, Tina Smith lost it 3 points, i.e low single digits.. as I mentioned in my post.

In a D+9 year

[Spectator]

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

I won't remain silent any longer, this analysis is just straight up trash. If you're arguing that this district is just permanently blue downballot you need to explain why it is that this long history of Democratic sympathies is only observable between 2006 and now. Yes Ettinger is probably benefitting somewhat from downballot strength but unless that downballot strength has increased between 2020 and now it doesn't even explain the differential between this and the 2020 congressional race if we're assuming an R leaning national environment, let alone the presidential one. Winning this district by single digits this cycle is bad for Republicans, point blank, period.

You're making assumptions on the basis that I've said it reflects a R+8 environment.. or whatever.. I haven't.

High single digits would be more akin to R+1 or +2.

Firstly that is very much on the low side of November HPV predictions both on this site and elsewhere. Most people think it will be R+4 to R+6. Secondly it would only indicate an R+1 or R+2 environment if I'm assuming uniform shift and the same downballot dem strength as 2020, but why would I assume that? After all, in 2018, a D+8.5ish year, this district was R+0.4 – 9ish points right of the nation. Is there any reason why I should prioritize Democrats' abnormally strong 2020 showing and say that the district is just 6 points right of the nation on the congressional level always and forever? This is a serious question.

Well, presumably you would use the most recent data point ? It's rather simple logic.

Idk why you wouldn’t use the Trump numbers as a stand in

[Spectator]

I think the chances of a GOP upset in New Hampshire are probably notably lower given this result.