India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[eos]

Can Rahul Gandhi's brand really withstand another defeat in 2024? Or do you think the INC can do well enough for him to emerge stronger, even if UPA concedes the government to the NDA once again?

I personally think Rahul Gandhi needs to make himself the undisputed leader of INC. They can't keep going back to Sonia Gandhi the moment it looks his brand is threatened. INC also needs to get the old guard and palace politicians close to Sonia Gandhi to retire. Promote leaders like Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan before its too late. Jyoti Rao Scindia was another prominent young face, but he went over to the BJP because INC kept favouring old faces like Digvijay Singh and Kamal Nath.

In any normal party, no.  In case INC does well enough in this round of elections leading to the return of Rahul Gandhi back in charge and he manages to lose 2024 as it is likely most normal parties would kick him out for good.  Unfortunately  for INC, it is really a confederation of various factions all looking for a member of the Gandhi family to settle disputes and be the main vote getter.  Last decade or so the Gandhi family vote has dwindled so this system is breaking down.  Still I think there is still no alternative to the Gandhi family even after a likely 2024 LS election. 

I always felt the way out for INC is to run the party like a franchise.  Still have Rahul Gandhi at the top for branding purposes but delegate the main vote getting to local leaders who in turn get a start in politics with a clear political brand with name recognition.   The Gandhi family then is mostly about running this confederation and in alliance with other parties try to capture national party.  Given the leadership perception gap between Rahul Gandhi and Modi it still means defeat in the LS elections but does allow INC to live to fight another day when Modi retires and the population tires of BJP.

When do you think Modi could retire? I think he wants to stick around for another 5 years after 2024, before handing it over to Amit Shah.

[eos]

Do you think if the UPA forms a government in Assam, the INC will shy away from giving the CM post to Tarun Gogoi's son, Gaurav Gogoi?

Other contenders are the state INC chief, Ripun Bora, in addition to Debabrata Saikia, who is the leader of the opposition, and perhaps also Pradyut Bordoloi, a LS MP. Debabrata Saikia's father was also a Chief Minister of Assam.

[eos]

I am certain UPA won these phase 1 seats: Dhing, Batodraba, Rupohihat, Samaguri, Naobicha, Mariani, Lakhimpur, and Titabar. 80% sure INC won in Nazira and Amguri. INC also has a 50-50 chance in another 20 seats, such as Barchalla, Tezpur, Rangapara, Sootea, Gohpur, Golaghat, Dergaon, Jorhat, Teok, Thowra, Sibsagar, Bihpuria, Dhakuakhana, Dhemaji, Moran, Duliajan, Naharkatia, Doom Dooma, Sadiya.

For the 50-50 seats, I think there are three factors necessary for an INC win, depending on the seat in question.

(1) Consolidation of INC-AIUDF-Left vote
(2) AJP-RD taking the traditionally regionalist AGP votes due to CAA, rather than from INC
(3) Return of some Adivasi tea tribe voters to INC

Many of the 50-50 seats are leaning NDA, so I wouldn't be too surprised to see INC lose most of these. However, I wouldn't be too surprised to see INC win in some of these either.

At the moment, 37/47 seems to be on the optimistic side for the BJP/NDA. If they can't get at least 37 , they will need to perform extremely well in phase 2 and 3. However, every opinion poll so far points to UPA winning 45-55 from phase 2 and 3. I think UPA will win more than 50, as much as 55. As long as UPA wins the 10 probable seats I mentioned above, they are within touching grounds of forming the government.

I have as sure UPA wins: Dhing, Batodraba, Rupohihat, Samaguri, Naobicha, Mariani
I have Lakhimpur, and Titabar as tossup
I have  Nazira as sure UPA win but Amgur as tossup.

I think NDA winning 37 out of 47 is doable if they sweep all the tossups.  One does have to give them a chance to do so.  There must be a cost to INC-AIUDF alliance (every action has a reaction) and this is the place for the cost to show up.

In Assam phase 1 seats the NDA won 36 out of 47 seats in 2016.  Now Amit Shah is predicting just a gain of 1 from 2016.  And we know there will be losses for NDA in Lower Assam and Barat Valley.  It seems the best the NDA could do is a narrow majority although it also seems the best UPA can do is also a narrow majority.

Still, I think 37/47 is a best case scenario for NDA. They need everything to break their way for that.

[eos]

Do you think if the UPA forms a government in Assam, the INC will shy away from giving the CM post to Tarun Gogoi's son, Gaurav Gogoi?

Other contenders are the state INC chief, Ripun Bora, in addition to Debabrata Saikia, who is the leader of the opposition, and perhaps also Pradyut Bordoloi, a LS MP. Debabrata Saikia's father was also a Chief Minister of Assam.

I have no idea.  All I know is if INC does in they will give credit to Rahul Gandhi and then there will be some negotiations behind the scenes to figure out CM in INC High Command.  This time of course they will have to also take the views of AIUDF and BPF into account.  BPF will be very important since they have the option of defecting back to BJP if the BJP dumps UPPL. 

It will be very interesting because Tarun Gogoi was a popular and recent CM of Assam. The INC were afraid to let Jagmohan Reddy succeed his father, and yet there is a sizeable number of Gogoi loyalists who want his son, Gaurav, to succeed him.

Himanta Biswa Sarma became estranged from Tarun Gogoi because he wanted to become CM, and suspected that Gogoi was grooming his own son to succeed him. When Gogoi continued to project himself as a CM candidate through 2015, Himanta rebelled, realising Gogoi meant to leave no earlier than 2021. This would give sufficient time for Gaurav Gogoi to emerge as a leader. Indeed, we can see now that Gaurav Gogoi is a CM candidate.

I think the AIUDF will favour Ripun Bora, who pushed for an alliance despite misgivings of other top INC leaders. https://www.telegraphindia.com/north-east/congress-leaders-seek-new-assam-chief/cid/1801788

The BPF had good relations with Tarun Gogoi. They might support Gaurav Gogoi. I am not sure the BFP will go back to the NDA as long as Himanta Biswa Sarma is pushing for the top spot. The BFP conditions will presumably include power over the BTC, and Sarbananda Sonowal as NDA CM. Himanta will presumably find these too humiliating to accept since he pushed for the BFP's ouster.

[eos]

Phase 2 voting in WB coming up

Just like phase 1, these seats are part of the old Left Front strongholds that are now trending BJP as the old Left Front Hindu vote migrate to BJP.  There are more Muslims in these seats than phase 1 which makes it harder for BJP to make gains

In 2019 LS these seats went AITC 17 BJP 13.  Most likely BJP will gain on top of this.  Not clear by how much. [/img]

Modi apparently didn't campaign in Nandigram, where Mamata Banerjee is contesting against her one-time lieutenant, Suvendu Adhikari.

According to some reports, Adhikari was upset with the promotion of Abhishek Banerjee, Mamata Banerjee's nephew. Others say he was pressured over some corruption scandal, and the BJP vouched to drop these cases if he joined them. This seems kind of similar to the case of Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam. Himanta not only lost his bid to succeed Tarun Gogoi, but he was also implicated in the Louis Berger scandal, and there were rumors that the BJP vouched to drop the case if he joined them. If true, the BJP under Modi and Amit Shah are ruthless.

[eos]

When do you think Modi could retire? I think he wants to stick around for another 5 years after 2024, before handing it over to Amit Shah.

Yeah.  It seems likely he will try to run for re-election in 2024 and then pass things over to Amit Shah after 2024.  The good news for the BJP is that Modi is single and has no children which simplifies succession.    After 2024 LS elections it will be Amit Shah vs Yogi Adityanath for the battle over who leads the BJP.

How acceptable is Yogi to non-rural BJP supporters?

[eos]

Tamulpur’s BPF candidate withdrew his candidature in the presence of Hiamnta Biswa Sarma. He will support the UPPL candidate. Basumatary was missing since the early morning.

https://twitter.com/atanubhuyan/status/1377280450910035971

[eos]

When do you think Modi could retire? I think he wants to stick around for another 5 years after 2024, before handing it over to Amit Shah.

Yeah.  It seems likely he will try to run for re-election in 2024 and then pass things over to Amit Shah after 2024.  The good news for the BJP is that Modi is single and has no children which simplifies succession.    After 2024 LS elections it will be Amit Shah vs Yogi Adityanath for the battle over who leads the BJP.

How acceptable is Yogi to non-rural BJP supporters?

Adityanath seems to be very popular to the core BJP votes and are being independently asked by BJP candidates all over the country to campaign for them.  He seems only second to Modi inside the BJP as a campaign crowd draw.  I would have thought that Adityanath's influence  would be limited to the Cow belt but BJP candidates in places like Telangana and WB are also asking him to campaign.    I still think his appeal would not be as wide as Modi. 

But if he does well in the 2022 UP assembly election and his popularity with the BJP base grows even more the 功高震主 or large accomplishments by a subordinate is a threat to the master effect will come into play and create conflict between him and Modi-Shah.

Surprising. I can scarcely believe he would be acceptable to BJP voters in a metro like Delhi.

[eos]

Adityanath seems to be very popular to the core BJP votes and are being independently asked by BJP candidates all over the country to campaign for them.  He seems only second to Modi inside the BJP as a campaign crowd draw.  I would have thought that Adityanath's influence  would be limited to the Cow belt but BJP candidates in places like Telangana and WB are also asking him to campaign.    I still think his appeal would not be as wide as Modi.  

But if he does well in the 2022 UP assembly election and his popularity with the BJP base grows even more the 功高震主 or large accomplishments by a subordinate is a threat to the master effect will come into play and create conflict between him and Modi-Shah.

Surprising. I can scarcely believe he would be acceptable to BJP voters in a metro like Delhi.

I think part of his appeal is that he is a maverick.  Yogi Adityanath and his mentor Mahant Avaidyanath were more from the HMS (Hindu Mahasabha) and only joined up with BJP in the late 1980s during the Ayodhya movement.  Even in the BJP there are plenty of cases where Yogi Adityanath undermined the election campaigns of rival BJP factions.  I think this independent, tell it like it is,  attitude has a lot of appeal to the core BJP voter.   Him being a sādhu also helps too.  Part of Modi's appeal is that he is not married and pretty much live like a sādhu which makes it easy for people to look past the policy mistakes he has made on the premise that: Well, his motivations are pure even if the results are not always good.

Would Yogi's perceived "frankness" have anything to do with his rhetoric against India's Muslim minority? I really struggle to see the appeal otherwise. Indeed, a lot of BJP voters in metros like to say they support BJP because it is "pro-development" and good for the economy. I heard the same for Modi running up to the 2014 elections. I guess there might be a "shy BJP" voter effect, where they claim their reasons for supporting BJP is economic, rather than an identification with Hindu Indian nationalism.

[eos]

Would Yogi's perceived "frankness" have anything to do with his rhetoric against India's Muslim minority? I really struggle to see the appeal otherwise. Indeed, a lot of BJP voters in metros like to say they support BJP because it is "pro-development" and good for the economy. I heard the same for Modi running up to the 2014 elections. I guess there might be a "shy BJP" voter effect, where they claim their reasons for supporting BJP is economic, rather than an identification with Hindu Indian nationalism.

I would say he does not hold back on his Hindu nationalism message.  His style has direct appeal to core BJP voters that does not consume English language media.  Yogi does not appeal to English language media based BJP voters who would prefer a Vajpayee.  The core policies will not be that different but the likes of Vajpayee can do them in a way that looks gentlemanlike.  With Yogi you do not get a gentlemen but you get a image of someone that gets things done and tells like like it is.  That is his brand and image.

Is Yogo competent too? I was surprised to see he has been a MP since 1998; I had not heard of him before 2017. Which potential successor poses a greater threat to the UPA, Yogi or Amit Shah?

[eos]

Tamulpur’s BPF candidate withdrew his candidature in the presence of Hiamnta Biswa Sarma. He will support the UPPL candidate. Basumatary was missing since the early morning.

https://twitter.com/atanubhuyan/status/1377280450910035971

After BPF candidate Basumatary quits BPF to join BJP, he called on voters to not vote for him and vote for UPPL.  Top BPF leader Hagrama Mohilary in a rally called on the voters of Tamulpur to vote BPF symbol (which is Basumatary of course).  

So now we have:
1) Candidate: do not vote for me
2) Party: Candidate is a traior, but vote for the traitor

The idea here is if Basumatary wins on the BPF symbol he is still bound by the BPF whip and will be disqualified if he does not vote with BPF on key votes.  And if he is disqualified there will be a by-election where BPF can then put in a loyal candidate.

Whole thing is bizarre.  It seems to me Basumatary  is much better off trying to win and if he wins then defect to BJP which would disqualify him but then BJP can then nominate him in the by-election. 

There might be chances of BFP winning a second election anyway. As the BFP candidate, I guess he can do his best to sabotage their chances from within.

I think BJP would have preferred he withdraw his nomination, but it was too late for that.

[eos]

Democracy Network is not the same as Democracy Times Network right? Democracy Network has no tweets earlier than March 23, and their first post is defending themselves against claims they are copying Democracy Network.

[eos]

Tamulpur’s BPF candidate withdrew his candidature in the presence of Hiamnta Biswa Sarma. He will support the UPPL candidate. Basumatary was missing since the early morning.

https://twitter.com/atanubhuyan/status/1377280450910035971

After BPF candidate Basumatary quits BPF to join BJP, he called on voters to not vote for him and vote for UPPL.  Top BPF leader Hagrama Mohilary in a rally called on the voters of Tamulpur to vote BPF symbol (which is Basumatary of course).  

So now we have:
1) Candidate: do not vote for me
2) Party: Candidate is a traior, but vote for the traitor

The idea here is if Basumatary wins on the BPF symbol he is still bound by the BPF whip and will be disqualified if he does not vote with BPF on key votes.  And if he is disqualified there will be a by-election where BPF can then put in a loyal candidate.

Whole thing is bizarre.  It seems to me Basumatary  is much better off trying to win and if he wins then defect to BJP which would disqualify him but then BJP can then nominate him in the by-election. 

There might be chances of BFP winning a second election anyway. As the BFP candidate, I guess he can do his best to sabotage their chances from within.

I think BJP would have preferred he withdraw his nomination, but it was too late for that.

This entire episode is does not make sense.  The BJP must figure BPF had a good chance of winning ergo they felt the need to bribe Basumatary to join before the elections.  But if Basumatary thinks he could win he should hold out for a bigger bribe after the elections.  The only explanation is that the BJP thinks Basumatary is likely to win but Basumatary has the opposite assessment.   The only alternative is Basumatary is not likely to win by the BJP want to bribe him to defect before the elections to shift marginal Bodo voters in the rest of Bodoland to vote NDA seeing that BPF is falling apart since their own candidate defected before the election. 

It would be hilarious if Basumatary wins by a landslide after campaigning against himself.  The look on his face on counting day would be funny to behold.  He would in theory have to office as an official BPF MLA.

I think its probably that NDA wants to collapse the BFP vote by making them think the party is going to fall apart due to defections.

In related news, Himanta Biswa Sarma has been banned from campaigning for 48 hours by the Election Commission after being reported for threatening the BFP chief with imprisonment.

[eos]

Very interesting, thanks for posting. No chart for SC and ST? I can see some of them included in 'Assamese Hindu', but quite a few are also Christians.

[eos]

Very interesting, thanks for posting. No chart for SC and ST? I can see some of them included in 'Assamese Hindu', but quite a few are also Christians.

Sorry he did not post any charts for ST (tribal) or SC (Dalits).  I am not sure how he categorized tea garden workers.  They are most Hindi speaking tribal but many do not have ST status.   Anyway I would expect SC to lean INC but now lean BJP while ST was mostly split between INC BJP and various tribal parties but now mostly lean BJP.

Why do tribals lean BJP? Is it simply because the BJP is also in power in centre, thus offering the clearest route to accessing power and resources?

I also remember the BJP attempted to woo the tribals after they lost ground due to CAA in 2019. They made various promises to recognise Assam as a "tribal state", and give ST status to many communities who assimilated into Assamese Hinduism and are otherwise counted as Assamese Hindu. If this happens, the share of the ST population will greatly increase. However, there has been no development so far.

[eos]

HP Municipal elections for the 4 top cities.

In aggregate it ended up being

INC    29
BJP    28
Ind      7

Overall these elections tend to lean the ruling party. If so then INC seems to be favorites to regain HP assembly in 2023.  Of course since 1990 every ruling party in HP has been defeated for re-election and it seems 2023 will continue that trend. 

I thought the HP elections are due by October 2022?

The list of states going into elections in 2022:
By Feb/March 2022: Punjab, Goa, Uttrakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Manipur
By October 2022: Himachal Pradesh
By December 2022: Gujarat

Also possible elections in JK.

Any other early predictions?

[eos]

You are totally right.  Typo by me.. HP is 2022

My best guess

Punjab: narrow INC win over split BJP and SAD
Goa: Shock INC win
Uttrakhand: INC comfortable win
UP: BJP over splintered opposition with reduced majority
Manipur: BJP wins re-election
HP: narrow INC win
Gujarat: BJP win but just like 2017 it will be closer than expected.  Gujarat INC does not exist except for the few months right before and election to come together to fight and election and then falls apart right after the election

Punjab: what of recent opinion polls indicating strong performance by AAP?

Uttrakhand: I think I also saw a recent opinion poll indicating a surprisingly good performance by AAP.

UP: is an alliance of SP, BSP and INC possible? If so, could it also backfire?

Gujarat: Didn't the AAP do well in the recent panchayat or municipal elections? I can't remember exactly. Can they further spoil the INC's chances?

[eos]

Chart on WB by phase mapped to results in 2006 2011 2016 assemblies and 2019 LS

Can you make it larger? It's too small to see right now.

[eos]

You are totally right.  Typo by me.. HP is 2022

My best guess

Punjab: narrow INC win over split BJP and SAD
Goa: Shock INC win
Uttrakhand: INC comfortable win
UP: BJP over splintered opposition with reduced majority
Manipur: BJP wins re-election
HP: narrow INC win
Gujarat: BJP win but just like 2017 it will be closer than expected.  Gujarat INC does not exist except for the few months right before and election to come together to fight and election and then falls apart right after the election

Punjab: what of recent opinion polls indicating strong performance by AAP?

Uttrakhand: I think I also saw a recent opinion poll indicating a surprisingly good performance by AAP.

UP: is an alliance of SP, BSP and INC possible? If so, could it also backfire?

Gujarat: Didn't the AAP do well in the recent panchayat or municipal elections? I can't remember exactly. Can they further spoil the INC's chances?

Punjab: you make a good point in the sense that AAP emerge as the main alternative to INC then INC will be in danger.  I guess my sense is that polling at this stage overestimates both INC and AAP and underestimates SAD.  But most likely a SAD revival will take much more votes from AAP than INC letting in INC.  Note in Punjab it is INC vs BJP in Hindu areas and INC vs SAD vs AAP in Sikh areas.  It is clear INC will sweep Hindu areas given the BJP brand in Punjab, even with Hindus, and a 3 way battle in Sikh areas I suspect might still break for INC.  Even if it ends up being even honors between INC SAD and APP the INC still ends up with the edge overall.

Uttrakhand: AAP support might reach high single digits but in the end it will be BJP vs INC.  And this time around the state will lean INC.

UP: I think a SP-BSP alliance could potential defeat BJP.  But I think the BSP dalit base is not what it used to be where it is losing support to both BJP and Bhim Army.  At this stage Mayawati will prioritize keeping its Dalit vote intact than defeating the BJP.   BJP's main danger are that in East UP Thakur are expanding their power at the local level and that could trigger anti-Thakur voting which will hurt the BJP.

Gujarat: I think AAP at this stage is eating into the INC vote.  But that has more to do with the intra-election meltdown of INC which somehow always manages to get into fighting shape right  before an election.  I suspect good AAP performance at this stage is more about INC weakness which will reverse itself as 2022 elections approach.

What is the future of AAP? It seems like it is here to stay in Delhi. Can the INC ever win Delhi back? As I understand, it's mostly the INC voter base in Delhi who have went over to the AAP.

[eos]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-09/second-virus-wave-overwhelms-india-hospitals-as-shots-run-low

"India’s Hospitals Swamped By Second Virus Wave as Shots Run Low"

Looks like India is in the middle of another COVID-19 surge.  Places like Maharashtra and Delhi are already going into lockdown.  It seems MP is doing the same.  So far this wave has not hit the assembly election states until after the voted.  Kerala had a surge right after it voted.  WB which is still voting does not seem to be hit so far.  

Sounds suspicious. States are fine as long as elections are taking place, and then get hit with Covid immediately afterwards? Maybe they should cut short the WB elections. It's ridiculously long, even accounting for possible security issues. Even the Bihar election was three phase only.

[eos]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/tripura-autonomous-district-council-polls-ruling-bjp-ally-set-for-shock-defeat-in-tripura-tribal-council-polls-2410603

"Ruling BJP, Ally Suffer Shock Defeat In Tripura Tribal Council Polls"

In Tripura the ruling BJP-IPFT was defeated in the critical Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council elections.  

Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council or TTAADC is the tribal parts of Tripura which is now majority Bengali Hindu.  


BJP-IPFT as the ruling bloc in the state was was expected to win but was defeated by the new TIPRA alliance led by the former head of Tripura INC who quit INC due to INC not being hardline enough against CAA.  TIPRA won based on an anti-CAA line and consolidating the entire anti-BJP-IPFT vote.

TIPRA-INPT     18
BJP-IPFT          9
Ind.                 1
Left Front-INC  0



Back in 2015 when Left Front was still the ruling bloc in Tripura the Left Front swept the  TTAADC elections.  Since then the BJP-IPFT has taken over the entire Tripura INC vote for a shock victory in 2018 Tripura assembly elections.

This time around the tribal vote are very concerned about CAA.  Tripura used to be majority tribal but due to migration of Bengali Hindus from WB and Bangladesh last few decades has become a minority in Tripura.  The CAA has triggered an anti-CAA fusion in the tribal vote against the BJP.  The INC, also looking not to lose the Bengali Hindu vote, was not able to take a hardline position which led to the tribal background leader of the Tripura INC to bolt and create his own anti-CAA splinter which went on to sweep the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council polls.

This does pose an challenge for BJP-IPFT  in 2023.  If the Left Front or INC is able to main gains in the Bengali Hindu vote and with BJP-IPFT losing the tribal vote due toe CAA BJP-IPFT might be in trouble in the 2023 Tripura assembly elections.

BJP might soon have problems in North-East, especially if INC makes a show of force in the Assam elections.

[eos]

Chart on WB by phase mapped to results in 2006 2011 2016 assemblies and 2019 LS

Can you make it larger? It's too small to see right now.

I grabbed it of some tweet

It seems 2006 data is incomplete

Thanks. This really puts into perspective how badly the Left has collapsed.

[eos]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/west-bengal-assembly-polls-2021/story/-aage-ram-pore-baam-former-leftists-form-bjp-s-backbone-in-bengal-2021-1789571-2021-04-11

"'Aage Ram, Pore Baam': Former Leftists form BJP's backbone in Bengal 2021"

Long but interesting India Today article on how the Left Front Hindu cadre drifted from Left Front to BJP since 2011 but especially after 2016.

The main lesson for AITC is: appreciate the enemies your have.  By going after Left Front cadres after 2011 with the goal of revenge for pre-2011 Left Front suppression of AITC and wiping the Left Front out, the AITC merely forced the fusion of the Left Front Hindu cadre and vote with the BJP and created a far bigger and powerful enemy in the ground with the BJP now close to defeating AITC in this WB assembly election.

India's party 'workers' are not really ideological, are they? Except perhaps for the RSS-BJP types. Kerela is held up to be this land of progressives in certain media circles, but I suspect you see religious + caste equations behind the Left vote there too.

[eos]

BJP might soon have problems in North-East, especially if INC makes a show of force in the Assam elections.

The Tripura tribal result does raise the risk that the same thing could take place in Assam hill tribal areas.  In the Dima Hasao and Karbi Anglong district seats it seemed safe for BJP as it is going to be a 3 way battle where it is BJP vs INC vs ADSC.  If there is an anti-CAA wave in these tribal seats like Tripura there could be an consolidation of the anti-CAA vote behind INC and take these seat away from BJP.

I think BJP is definitely nervous right now. However, as you say, a close result wouldn't be too bad for Himanta Biswa Sarma.

[eos]

What is the future of AAP? It seems like it is here to stay in Delhi. Can the INC ever win Delhi back? As I understand, it's mostly the INC voter base in Delhi who have went over to the AAP.

I doubt INC can come back in Delhi as AAP has taken over the old INC vote and is the alternative to the BJP.  Just like I doubt INC can come back in AP as YSRCP is now the new alternative to TDP.

Thoughts so. INC is too weak to win the assembly, but they might still spoil the LS seats for AAP. In 2019, BJP finished first, but INC second, with AAP third. Yet, AAP swept the 2020 elections.

Why does Delhi vote so differently in LS and assembly elections? I can see how LS elections might be considered a de facto referendum on Modi. However, there are still drastic differences.

2019
BJP - 56.8
INC - 22.5
AAP - 18.11

2020
AAP - 53.57
BJP - 38.51
INC - 4.26