India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[eos]

Chart on WB by phase mapped to results in 2006 2011 2016 assemblies and 2019 LS

Can you make it larger? It's too small to see right now.

[eos]

You are totally right.  Typo by me.. HP is 2022

My best guess

Punjab: narrow INC win over split BJP and SAD
Goa: Shock INC win
Uttrakhand: INC comfortable win
UP: BJP over splintered opposition with reduced majority
Manipur: BJP wins re-election
HP: narrow INC win
Gujarat: BJP win but just like 2017 it will be closer than expected.  Gujarat INC does not exist except for the few months right before and election to come together to fight and election and then falls apart right after the election

Punjab: what of recent opinion polls indicating strong performance by AAP?

Uttrakhand: I think I also saw a recent opinion poll indicating a surprisingly good performance by AAP.

UP: is an alliance of SP, BSP and INC possible? If so, could it also backfire?

Gujarat: Didn't the AAP do well in the recent panchayat or municipal elections? I can't remember exactly. Can they further spoil the INC's chances?

Punjab: you make a good point in the sense that AAP emerge as the main alternative to INC then INC will be in danger.  I guess my sense is that polling at this stage overestimates both INC and AAP and underestimates SAD.  But most likely a SAD revival will take much more votes from AAP than INC letting in INC.  Note in Punjab it is INC vs BJP in Hindu areas and INC vs SAD vs AAP in Sikh areas.  It is clear INC will sweep Hindu areas given the BJP brand in Punjab, even with Hindus, and a 3 way battle in Sikh areas I suspect might still break for INC.  Even if it ends up being even honors between INC SAD and APP the INC still ends up with the edge overall.

Uttrakhand: AAP support might reach high single digits but in the end it will be BJP vs INC.  And this time around the state will lean INC.

UP: I think a SP-BSP alliance could potential defeat BJP.  But I think the BSP dalit base is not what it used to be where it is losing support to both BJP and Bhim Army.  At this stage Mayawati will prioritize keeping its Dalit vote intact than defeating the BJP.   BJP's main danger are that in East UP Thakur are expanding their power at the local level and that could trigger anti-Thakur voting which will hurt the BJP.

Gujarat: I think AAP at this stage is eating into the INC vote.  But that has more to do with the intra-election meltdown of INC which somehow always manages to get into fighting shape right  before an election.  I suspect good AAP performance at this stage is more about INC weakness which will reverse itself as 2022 elections approach.

What is the future of AAP? It seems like it is here to stay in Delhi. Can the INC ever win Delhi back? As I understand, it's mostly the INC voter base in Delhi who have went over to the AAP.

[eos]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-09/second-virus-wave-overwhelms-india-hospitals-as-shots-run-low

"India’s Hospitals Swamped By Second Virus Wave as Shots Run Low"

Looks like India is in the middle of another COVID-19 surge.  Places like Maharashtra and Delhi are already going into lockdown.  It seems MP is doing the same.  So far this wave has not hit the assembly election states until after the voted.  Kerala had a surge right after it voted.  WB which is still voting does not seem to be hit so far.  

Sounds suspicious. States are fine as long as elections are taking place, and then get hit with Covid immediately afterwards? Maybe they should cut short the WB elections. It's ridiculously long, even accounting for possible security issues. Even the Bihar election was three phase only.

[eos]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/tripura-autonomous-district-council-polls-ruling-bjp-ally-set-for-shock-defeat-in-tripura-tribal-council-polls-2410603

"Ruling BJP, Ally Suffer Shock Defeat In Tripura Tribal Council Polls"

In Tripura the ruling BJP-IPFT was defeated in the critical Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council elections.  

Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council or TTAADC is the tribal parts of Tripura which is now majority Bengali Hindu.  


BJP-IPFT as the ruling bloc in the state was was expected to win but was defeated by the new TIPRA alliance led by the former head of Tripura INC who quit INC due to INC not being hardline enough against CAA.  TIPRA won based on an anti-CAA line and consolidating the entire anti-BJP-IPFT vote.

TIPRA-INPT     18
BJP-IPFT          9
Ind.                 1
Left Front-INC  0



Back in 2015 when Left Front was still the ruling bloc in Tripura the Left Front swept the  TTAADC elections.  Since then the BJP-IPFT has taken over the entire Tripura INC vote for a shock victory in 2018 Tripura assembly elections.

This time around the tribal vote are very concerned about CAA.  Tripura used to be majority tribal but due to migration of Bengali Hindus from WB and Bangladesh last few decades has become a minority in Tripura.  The CAA has triggered an anti-CAA fusion in the tribal vote against the BJP.  The INC, also looking not to lose the Bengali Hindu vote, was not able to take a hardline position which led to the tribal background leader of the Tripura INC to bolt and create his own anti-CAA splinter which went on to sweep the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council polls.

This does pose an challenge for BJP-IPFT  in 2023.  If the Left Front or INC is able to main gains in the Bengali Hindu vote and with BJP-IPFT losing the tribal vote due toe CAA BJP-IPFT might be in trouble in the 2023 Tripura assembly elections.

BJP might soon have problems in North-East, especially if INC makes a show of force in the Assam elections.

[jaichind]

Chart on WB by phase mapped to results in 2006 2011 2016 assemblies and 2019 LS

Can you make it larger? It's too small to see right now.

I grabbed it of some tweet

It seems 2006 data is incomplete

[jaichind]

What is the future of AAP? It seems like it is here to stay in Delhi. Can the INC ever win Delhi back? As I understand, it's mostly the INC voter base in Delhi who have went over to the AAP.

I doubt INC can come back in Delhi as AAP has taken over the old INC vote and is the alternative to the BJP.  Just like I doubt INC can come back in AP as YSRCP is now the new alternative to TDP.

[jaichind]

BJP might soon have problems in North-East, especially if INC makes a show of force in the Assam elections.

The Tripura tribal result does raise the risk that the same thing could take place in Assam hill tribal areas.  In the Dima Hasao and Karbi Anglong district seats it seemed safe for BJP as it is going to be a 3 way battle where it is BJP vs INC vs ADSC.  If there is an anti-CAA wave in these tribal seats like Tripura there could be an consolidation of the anti-CAA vote behind INC and take these seat away from BJP.

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2021/apr/11/assam-polls-now-bodoland-peoples-front-shifts-its-candidates-abroad-2288703.html

"Assam polls: Now, Bodoland People’s Front shifts its candidates abroad"

Wow, resort politics now goes international.  Not content with shifting candidate to INC ruled Rajasthan, BPF now shift most of its candidates to Singapore to get them as far away from the BJP machine as possible.  It seems BPF is convinced the election result is very close and BPF most likely will hold the balance of power.

BTW, when I say BJP machine I really mean Himanta Biswa Sarma as he is the expert at doing backroom deals to form or break a majority.   In the battle between Himanta Biswa Sarma and Assam BJP CM Sarbananda Sonowal, it is clear that Sarbananda Sonowal would prefer a clear NDA victory or clear UPA victory by large margin while Himanta Biswa Sarma would prefer a close result.  In the case of a clear mandate Himanta Biswa Sarma's skills at making or breaking majorities would be superfluous and most likely Sarbananda Sonowal will stay on as the leader of the Assam BJP given his ability to appeal Assamese Hindu AGP voters as well as BJP voters.  If it is really close then the BJP will have to bring in Himanta Biswa Sarma as the leader to break an UPA majority and make a NDA majority and of course be given the CM role.

So far it seems things are working to the advantage of Himanta Biswa Sarma.

[jaichind]

Tripura TTAADC vote share



Which gives us this chart

                    Seats   Vote share
TIPRA-INPT      18         46.73%
BJP-IPFT           9          29.35%
Ind.                  1
Left Front-INC   0          15.37%

Back in 2018 when BJP-IPFT won a shock victory in the assembly elections the tribal areas went BJP-IPFT with around 53% of the vote share.  Will be interesting to see things play out in tribal areas in 2023 assembly elections.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/west-bengal-assembly-polls-2021/story/-aage-ram-pore-baam-former-leftists-form-bjp-s-backbone-in-bengal-2021-1789571-2021-04-11

"'Aage Ram, Pore Baam': Former Leftists form BJP's backbone in Bengal 2021"

Long but interesting India Today article on how the Left Front Hindu cadre drifted from Left Front to BJP since 2011 but especially after 2016.

The main lesson for AITC is: appreciate the enemies your have.  By going after Left Front cadres after 2011 with the goal of revenge for pre-2011 Left Front suppression of AITC and wiping the Left Front out, the AITC merely forced the fusion of the Left Front Hindu cadre and vote with the BJP and created a far bigger and powerful enemy in the ground with the BJP now close to defeating AITC in this WB assembly election.

[eos]

Chart on WB by phase mapped to results in 2006 2011 2016 assemblies and 2019 LS

Can you make it larger? It's too small to see right now.

I grabbed it of some tweet

It seems 2006 data is incomplete

Thanks. This really puts into perspective how badly the Left has collapsed.

[eos]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/west-bengal-assembly-polls-2021/story/-aage-ram-pore-baam-former-leftists-form-bjp-s-backbone-in-bengal-2021-1789571-2021-04-11

"'Aage Ram, Pore Baam': Former Leftists form BJP's backbone in Bengal 2021"

Long but interesting India Today article on how the Left Front Hindu cadre drifted from Left Front to BJP since 2011 but especially after 2016.

The main lesson for AITC is: appreciate the enemies your have.  By going after Left Front cadres after 2011 with the goal of revenge for pre-2011 Left Front suppression of AITC and wiping the Left Front out, the AITC merely forced the fusion of the Left Front Hindu cadre and vote with the BJP and created a far bigger and powerful enemy in the ground with the BJP now close to defeating AITC in this WB assembly election.

India's party 'workers' are not really ideological, are they? Except perhaps for the RSS-BJP types. Kerela is held up to be this land of progressives in certain media circles, but I suspect you see religious + caste equations behind the Left vote there too.

[eos]

BJP might soon have problems in North-East, especially if INC makes a show of force in the Assam elections.

The Tripura tribal result does raise the risk that the same thing could take place in Assam hill tribal areas.  In the Dima Hasao and Karbi Anglong district seats it seemed safe for BJP as it is going to be a 3 way battle where it is BJP vs INC vs ADSC.  If there is an anti-CAA wave in these tribal seats like Tripura there could be an consolidation of the anti-CAA vote behind INC and take these seat away from BJP.

I think BJP is definitely nervous right now. However, as you say, a close result wouldn't be too bad for Himanta Biswa Sarma.

[eos]

What is the future of AAP? It seems like it is here to stay in Delhi. Can the INC ever win Delhi back? As I understand, it's mostly the INC voter base in Delhi who have went over to the AAP.

I doubt INC can come back in Delhi as AAP has taken over the old INC vote and is the alternative to the BJP.  Just like I doubt INC can come back in AP as YSRCP is now the new alternative to TDP.

Thoughts so. INC is too weak to win the assembly, but they might still spoil the LS seats for AAP. In 2019, BJP finished first, but INC second, with AAP third. Yet, AAP swept the 2020 elections.

Why does Delhi vote so differently in LS and assembly elections? I can see how LS elections might be considered a de facto referendum on Modi. However, there are still drastic differences.

2019
BJP - 56.8
INC - 22.5
AAP - 18.11

2020
AAP - 53.57
BJP - 38.51
INC - 4.26

[jaichind]

Thoughts so. INC is too weak to win the assembly, but they might still spoil the LS seats for AAP. In 2019, BJP finished first, but INC second, with AAP third. Yet, AAP swept the 2020 elections.

Why does Delhi vote so differently in LS and assembly elections? I can see how LS elections might be considered a de facto referendum on Modi. However, there are still drastic differences.

2019
BJP - 56.8
INC - 22.5
AAP - 18.11

2020
AAP - 53.57
BJP - 38.51
INC - 4.26

Back in the 1980s Indians voted in assembly elections as if they were LS elections.  In the 1990s to 2010s Indians voted in LS elections as if they were assembly elections. Now they clearly split their vote.

In 2019 Delhi was voting for PM so the anti-Modi vote went INC since Rahul Gandhi was the main alternative to Modi but when it came to assembly elections the voting was based on voting for CM.

Another example of this is 2019 Kerala and TN where due to the Dravidian vs Hindi concerns voters there went heavy for UPA as the alterative to Modi (which to the voters represented Hindi).  The 2019 LS election results were

TN
UPA      53.19%
NDA     31.06%
AMMK+  5.19%
NTK       3.90%
MNM      3.68%

Kerala
UDF     47.48%
LDF      35.29%
NDA     15.64%

This time around it is clear UPA vote share will NOT reach this sort of level they reached in 2019 LS elections for the same reason as Delhi.  The 2019 vote for UPA is a vote for Rahul Gandhi as the alterative to Modi.

This effect mostly hurt BJP more since in most Indo-Aryan states there was a Modi bonus of at least 5% for the BJP that they cannot expect in assembly elections.  In WB this time the BJP vote share might exceed the 2019 LS vote share but that is mostly about BJP collecting anti-incumbency vote.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/west-bengal-assembly-polls-2021/story/-aage-ram-pore-baam-former-leftists-form-bjp-s-backbone-in-bengal-2021-1789571-2021-04-11

"'Aage Ram, Pore Baam': Former Leftists form BJP's backbone in Bengal 2021"

Long but interesting India Today article on how the Left Front Hindu cadre drifted from Left Front to BJP since 2011 but especially after 2016.

The main lesson for AITC is: appreciate the enemies your have.  By going after Left Front cadres after 2011 with the goal of revenge for pre-2011 Left Front suppression of AITC and wiping the Left Front out, the AITC merely forced the fusion of the Left Front Hindu cadre and vote with the BJP and created a far bigger and powerful enemy in the ground with the BJP now close to defeating AITC in this WB assembly election.

India's party 'workers' are not really ideological, are they? Except perhaps for the RSS-BJP types. Kerela is held up to be this land of progressives in certain media circles, but I suspect you see religious + caste equations behind the Left vote there too.

Usually not but CPM cadres are pretty committed organizationally and most likely ideologically.  Until the collapse of the CPM in WB there are very little examples CPM MPs and MLA defecting to another party going back to the 1960s when CPM split from CPI.

[eos]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/west-bengal-assembly-polls-2021/story/-aage-ram-pore-baam-former-leftists-form-bjp-s-backbone-in-bengal-2021-1789571-2021-04-11

"'Aage Ram, Pore Baam': Former Leftists form BJP's backbone in Bengal 2021"

Long but interesting India Today article on how the Left Front Hindu cadre drifted from Left Front to BJP since 2011 but especially after 2016.

The main lesson for AITC is: appreciate the enemies your have.  By going after Left Front cadres after 2011 with the goal of revenge for pre-2011 Left Front suppression of AITC and wiping the Left Front out, the AITC merely forced the fusion of the Left Front Hindu cadre and vote with the BJP and created a far bigger and powerful enemy in the ground with the BJP now close to defeating AITC in this WB assembly election.

India's party 'workers' are not really ideological, are they? Except perhaps for the RSS-BJP types. Kerela is held up to be this land of progressives in certain media circles, but I suspect you see religious + caste equations behind the Left vote there too.

Usually not but CPM cadres are pretty committed organizationally and most likely ideologically.  Until the collapse of the CPM in WB there are very little examples CPM MPs and MLA defecting to another party going back to the 1960s when CPM split from CPI.

So, how come the Left cadres in Bengal went over to the BJP? I know they are being targeted by TMC, but you'd think they would be opposed to BJP's Hindu-Hindi plank.

Admittedly, seems some workers being interviewed say they still have reservations about the BJP, and could switch back. I will believe it when I see it.

[eos]

Thoughts so. INC is too weak to win the assembly, but they might still spoil the LS seats for AAP. In 2019, BJP finished first, but INC second, with AAP third. Yet, AAP swept the 2020 elections.

Why does Delhi vote so differently in LS and assembly elections? I can see how LS elections might be considered a de facto referendum on Modi. However, there are still drastic differences.

2019
BJP - 56.8
INC - 22.5
AAP - 18.11

2020
AAP - 53.57
BJP - 38.51
INC - 4.26

Back in the 1980s Indians voted in assembly elections as if they were LS elections.  In the 1990s to 2010s Indians voted in LS elections as if they were assembly elections. Now they clearly split their vote.

In 2019 Delhi was voting for PM so the anti-Modi vote went INC since Rahul Gandhi was the main alternative to Modi but when it came to assembly elections the voting was based on voting for CM.

Another example of this is 2019 Kerala and TN where due to the Dravidian vs Hindi concerns voters there went heavy for UPA as the alterative to Modi (which to the voters represented Hindi).  The 2019 LS election results were

TN
UPA      53.19%
NDA     31.06%
AMMK+  5.19%
NTK       3.90%
MNM      3.68%

Kerala
UDF     47.48%
LDF      35.29%
NDA     15.64%

This time around it is clear UPA vote share will NOT reach this sort of level they reached in 2019 LS elections for the same reason as Delhi.  The 2019 vote for UPA is a vote for Rahul Gandhi as the alterative to Modi.

This effect mostly hurt BJP more since in most Indo-Aryan states there was a Modi bonus of at least 5% for the BJP that they cannot expect in assembly elections.  In WB this time the BJP vote share might exceed the 2019 LS vote share but that is mostly about BJP collecting anti-incumbency vote.

This makes sense. INC really needs Rahul Gandhi to step up then. Alternatively, is there any leader than Mamata Banerjee who could be viable alternative to Modi? Sharad Pawar? Amarinder Singh?

[jaichind]

So, how come the Left cadres in Bengal went over to the BJP? I know they are being targeted by TMC, but you'd think they would be opposed to BJP's Hindu-Hindi plank.

Admittedly, seems some workers being interviewed say they still have reservations about the BJP, and could switch back. I will believe it when I see it.

If you read

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/west-bengal-assembly-polls-2021/story/-aage-ram-pore-baam-former-leftists-form-bjp-s-backbone-in-bengal-2021-1789571-2021-04-11

it points it out what took place.  Aage Ram, Pore Baam = ('First Ram, then Left')  (the BJP rallying call in WB is "Jai Shri Ram" so Ram is codeword for BJP)

After 2011 when AITC came into power they went after the Left Front cadres just like Left Front cadres went after AITC party workers before 2011.  What some Left Front leaders did was to advise their cadres to join BJP on a temporary basis to avoid abuse from AITC.  In other cases Left Front cadres joined to BJP to defeat AITC and plan to go back to Left Front after AITC is defeated.

I think this destructive battle between AITC and Left Front will create what we Chinese call 弄假成真 (what started out as fake became real) (sorry but most complex abstract concepts I end up mapping into the large mental dictionary I have of Chinese sayings) and the Left Front cadre will join BJP and never come back, especially if BJP wins.  No one is going to give up their positions as part of the ruling infrastructure.  Ergo I call AITC the new INC and BJP, bizarrely, the new Left Front.  Most ironic of all is if the BJP wins I expect the Left Front to form an alliance with AITC to take on BJP after the election.

[eos]

So, how come the Left cadres in Bengal went over to the BJP? I know they are being targeted by TMC, but you'd think they would be opposed to BJP's Hindu-Hindi plank.

Admittedly, seems some workers being interviewed say they still have reservations about the BJP, and could switch back. I will believe it when I see it.

If you read

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/west-bengal-assembly-polls-2021/story/-aage-ram-pore-baam-former-leftists-form-bjp-s-backbone-in-bengal-2021-1789571-2021-04-11

it points it out what took place.  Aage Ram, Pore Baam = ('First Ram, then Left')  (the BJP rallying call in WB is "Jai Shri Ram" so Ram is codeword for BJP)

After 2011 when AITC came into power they went after the Left Front cadres just like Left Front cadres went after AITC party workers before 2011.  What some Left Front leaders did was to advise their cadres to join BJP on a temporary basis to avoid abuse from AITC.  In other cases Left Front cadres joined to BJP to defeat AITC and plan to go back to Left Front after AITC is defeated.

I think this destructive battle between AITC and Left Front will create what we Chinese call 弄假成真 (what started out as fake became real) (sorry but most complex abstract concepts I end up mapping into the large mental dictionary I have of Chinese sayings) and the Left Front cadre will join BJP and never come back, especially if BJP wins.  No one is going to give up their positions as part of the ruling infrastructure.  Ergo I call AITC the new INC and BJP, bizarrely, the new Left Front.  Most ironic of all is if the BJP wins I expect the Left Front to form an alliance with AITC to take on BJP after the election.

Yes, I read that. Like you, I also don't believe all these claims of temporarily supporting BJP, then coming back. That's why I am a bit skeptical about the ideological commitment of communist party cadres. It seems to me that they want to part of a successful political party, not toil without material rewards.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/goa/goa-bjp-ally-gfp-quits-nda-blames-government-for-anti-goan-policies-7271731/

"Goa Forward Party quits NDA, blames BJP govt for ‘anti-Goan policies’"

In Goa, on again off again BJP ally and INC splinter GFP quits NDA.  This mostly sets up GFP to join UPA for the 2022 assembly elections.  GFP actually ran in 2017 assembly elections on an anti-BJP plank and tried to from an alliance with INC but failed.  After the BJP formed the government through engineering defections they were able to rope in GFP.  In 2022 assembly I suspect INC will end up with an alliance with NCP and GFP which places them in a fairly strong position to take on BJP.

[jaichind]

In Meghalaya result of another tribal autonomous council (Garo Hills Autonomous District Council) election are out.  Even though BJP backs its NDA ally NPP at the state assembly level due to CAA the relationship between BJP and NPP has declined to a point where they ran separately in this election to the benefit of INC.  



Before 2018 INC ran the council with the backing of various independents but after NPP-BJP came to power in Meghalaya assembly in 2018 most of the INC MLC defected to NPP leading to NPP taking over. 

The CAA issues must have hit NPP leading to a surprisingly positive result for INC.   Despite the acrimony between NPP and BJP most likely NPP will form the government with BJP support.  

[jaichind]

Due to the COVID-19 surge in India it seems in WB all parties in remaining phases will stop rallies and only rely on door to door campaigning. 

[jaichind]

https://thefederal.com/assam-elections-2021/cong-bjp-pack-candidates-off-to-resorts-amid-hints-of-hung-assam-assembly/

"Cong, BJP pack candidates off to resorts amid hints of hung Assembly"

Talks about how both BJP and INC are moving their candidates and the candidates of their allies to be sequestered in various resorts as both parties internal surveys shows that the result will be close.  One funny part of the story is that all AIUDF candidates had their smartphones taken away and given a new cell phone with a separate number so the BJP are not able to call them.

[jaichind]

So far ECI has  seized around $140 million worth of assets (liquor, gold, cash, drugs, etc etc) related to vote buying.  Given the vague assumption that captured loot to real spend is 10-20 to 1 you figure this assembly election vote buying will be around $1.4 billon to $2.4 billion.  The level of resources seized for vote buying seems to be 4 times bigger than 2016.

TN historically has a very heavy spend in terms of vote buying when compared to other states.  This time it seems WB is surging upward.  Part of this must be pro-BJP money moving in in addition to the large resources available to AITC.



One thing to note: TN voters seems to like cash and gold while WB voters seems to like drugs and alcohol.   You can use this indicator to give you a sense the relative level of labor productivity between the two states, namely TN labor productively should be higher than WB which it is.

Separately, some WB 5th phase info