India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

Tomorrow is the first day of election.  Phase 1 of  8 in WB and phase 1 of 3 in Assam.  The part of WB that will be voting should be BJP's strongest area (Southwest WB).  Same with Assam (Upper Assam)

So if the feedback from the ground is not positive for BJP then that would be bad news.  On the other hand if the feedback is pro-BJP that does not mean they will win but for sure they will be in the running.

[jaichind]

WB phase 1 voting over.  Pro-BJP ground sources seems confident they swept almost all the seats.  The local media ground reports seems to differ.  Various local media sources indicate that there is a surge in  women vote which for sure helps AITC.  They also report that Left Front-INC-ISF is doing better than expected which means they are eating into anti-AITC pro-BJP votes.

A local media outfit came out with their projection of WB Phase 1 seats which seems like a disaster for BJP and massive overperformance for  Left Front-INC-ISF although they might be doing so under pressure from AITC


Turnout comparison 2021 vs 2016.  Once all the numbers comes in I think turnout will be slightly lower than 2016 or about the same.

[jaichind]

In Assam, pro-BJP sources indicate that BJP-AGP have swept phase 1 Upper Assam seats.  Various local media sources seems to indicate that BJP-AGP are running around 10% behind their 2019 LS vote share.  The local media also reports that the tea garden Hindi speaking tribal vote are most likely splinter which on the surface is bad news for BJP since they were counting on sweeping the tea garden worker vote.   If, as it is likely, most of this 10% drop-off went to AJP-RD, then the BJP-AGP should have won 2/3 of the seats which would keep this election 50/50.  If most of this drop-off went to INC, then the NDA is looking at a solid defeat in Assam.

Voting in Upper Assam


The reason why Assam and WB votes in phases are due the need of security forces to be deployed at poll stations.  Both Assam and WB have various Maoist and/or tribal insurgencies


Turnout by seat 2016 vs 2021. Once final numbers comes in turnout numbers will rise although it seems overall turnout most likely fell from 2016.  A glance at relative turnout seems to indicate that turnout mostly fell in BJP strongholds and most likely rose in marginal seats.  

[eos]

I think the split was 54-39 NDA vs INC in the 2019 LS elections in Upper Assam. If this is true, the NDA will be at 44. UPA needs only half of this reported swing to deny the NDA another chance at forming the government.

[jaichind]

I think the split was 54-39 NDA vs INC in the 2019 LS elections in Upper Assam. If this is true, the NDA will be at 44. UPA needs only half of this reported swing to deny the NDA another chance at forming the government.

Was the 2019 Upper Assam assembly segment 54-39 for NDA ? In 2019 Assam overall the assembly segment lead was

BJP      67
AGP     11
BPF       4
SGS      6
INC      26
AIUDF  12

Given these numbers I am pretty sure the NDA 2019 LS assembly segment lead in Upper Assam was much greater than 54-39 when INC and AIUDF together only led on 38 assembly segments out of all of Assam.  Also I think it depends on definition of Upper Assam but I do not think Upper Assam has as many as 94 assembly segments (54+39).

[eos]

I think the split was 54-39 NDA vs INC in the 2019 LS elections in Upper Assam. If this is true, the NDA will be at 44. UPA needs only half of this reported swing to deny the NDA another chance at forming the government.

Was the 2019 Upper Assam assembly segment 54-39 for NDA ? In 2019 Assam overall the assembly segment lead was

BJP      67
AGP     11
BPF       4
SGS      6
INC      26
AIUDF  12

Given these numbers I am pretty sure the NDA 2019 LS assembly segment lead in Upper Assam was much greater than 54-39 when INC and AIUDF together only led on 38 assembly segments out of all of Assam.  Also I think it depends on definition of Upper Assam but I do not think Upper Assam has as many as 94 assembly segments (54+39).

Sorry, I should have clarified I meant vote share.

In 2016, NDA won 35/47 seats being contested in phase 1, with 1 independent joining BJP later.

[eos]

In any case, I misremembered. The 2016 voteshare for the 47 seats from phase 1, 2021 was actually:

NDA - 44.96
INC - 35.85
AIUDF  - 5.62
OTHER - 13.56

[eos]

If there is a 10% swing in Upper Assam, the NDA is in serious trouble. Or did you mean 10% of the NDA total in 2016, i.e. 5%?

[eos]

Oh wait, I got confused, sorry. You are talking about a 10% drop off from their 2019 shares. I was looking at figures for 2016.

[eos]

In Upper Assam's LS districts, I include Dibrugarh, Lakhimpur, Kaliabor, Jorhat, Tezpur, and Nowgong. Some parts of Nowgong, Kaliabor, and Tezpur might be considered part of Central Assam, but I have a very liberal definition.

In 2019, the BJP and INC got 3,962,513 and 3,148,648 votes out of 7,465,660. That's 53.1 vs 42.1. If you opt for a more restrictive definition and take only Lakhimpur, Dibrugarh and Jorhat, it would be BJP at 1,979,277 and INC at 1,181,507 out of 3,357,302. That's 58.9 vs 35.1.

If you meant a 10% voteshare drop in deep Upper Assam (Lakhimpur, Dibrugarh, and Jorhat), the BJP would be around 49.

[jaichind]

Oh wait, I got confused, sorry. You are talking about a 10% drop off from their 2019 shares. I was looking at figures for 2016.

Yep, what some local media are saying is that the expect NDA vote share to fall 10% relative to 2019 LS elections in Upper Assam based on what they saw.  This is pretty consistent with other state assembly elections that voted after the 2019 LS elections.  But if true it would be very disappointing to BJP where they had hoped for a mega landslide in Upper Assam to cancel out any losses in Lower Assam and Barak Valley. 

If we assume, which is reasonable, that most of the 10% drop are to the AJP-RD, and if we take into account of some INC vote share loss to AJP-RD but made up by AIUDF and Left parties shift to INC, we are looking at something like 5%-6% swing against the BJP relative to 2019 LS elections.  If so then NDA still wins Upper Assam with ease but not with enough seats to claim victory overall.  In this case the election will be decided on how well the AIUDF vote transfers to BPF and INC in Lower Assam and Barak Valley.  The 14 seats AIUDF got as part of UPA alliance are mostly safe so the issue of INC vote transfer to AIUDF most likely will not matter as much.

[eos]

Oh wait, I got confused, sorry. You are talking about a 10% drop off from their 2019 shares. I was looking at figures for 2016.

Yep, what some local media are saying is that the expect NDA vote share to fall 10% relative to 2019 LS elections in Upper Assam based on what they saw.  This is pretty consistent with other state assembly elections that voted after the 2019 LS elections.  But if true it would be very disappointing to BJP where they had hoped for a mega landslide in Upper Assam to cancel out any losses in Lower Assam and Barak Valley.  

If we assume, which is reasonable, that most of the 10% drop are to the AJP-RD, and if we take into account of some INC vote share loss to AJP-RD but made up by AIUDF and Left parties shift to INC, we are looking at something like 5%-6% swing against the BJP relative to 2019 LS elections.  If so then NDA still wins Upper Assam with ease but not with enough seats to claim victory overall.  In this case the election will be decided on how well the AIUDF vote transfers to BPF and INC in Lower Assam and Barak Valley.  The 14 seats AIUDF got as part of UPA alliance are mostly safe so the issue of INC vote transfer to AIUDF most likely will not matter as much.

Can't some of the drop off be due to a BJP to INC swing? There are many Adivasi 'tea tribe' voters in Upper Assam. They are traditional INC voters who became pro-BJP in 2014.

[eos]

According to some independent pollsters on twitter, the INC+Left over-performed in the first phase of the Bengal elections. They say this is going to cost the BJP, who expected to take the anti-TMC vote and sweep in the first phase.

The seats up for grabs https://twitter.com/Morewithshashi

[jaichind]

Oh wait, I got confused, sorry. You are talking about a 10% drop off from their 2019 shares. I was looking at figures for 2016.

Yep, what some local media are saying is that the expect NDA vote share to fall 10% relative to 2019 LS elections in Upper Assam based on what they saw.  This is pretty consistent with other state assembly elections that voted after the 2019 LS elections.  But if true it would be very disappointing to BJP where they had hoped for a mega landslide in Upper Assam to cancel out any losses in Lower Assam and Barak Valley.  

If we assume, which is reasonable, that most of the 10% drop are to the AJP-RD, and if we take into account of some INC vote share loss to AJP-RD but made up by AIUDF and Left parties shift to INC, we are looking at something like 5%-6% swing against the BJP relative to 2019 LS elections.  If so then NDA still wins Upper Assam with ease but not with enough seats to claim victory overall.  In this case the election will be decided on how well the AIUDF vote transfers to BPF and INC in Lower Assam and Barak Valley.  The 14 seats AIUDF got as part of UPA alliance are mostly safe so the issue of INC vote transfer to AIUDF most likely will not matter as much.

Can't some of the drop off be due to a BJP to INC swing? There are many Adivasi 'tea tribe' voters in Upper Assam. They are traditional INC voters who became pro-BJP in 2014.

Totally possible.  And if true then BJP might have lost the election already.

[jaichind]

Looks like they are coming out with a biographical film on former AIADMK CM Jayalalithaa called Thalaivi or leader.  Jayalalithaa was called Puratchi Thalaivi or Revolutionary Leader by the AIADMK. 

It seems it will cover in detail the 1989 incident in the TN assembly where then Opposition leader Jayalalithaa  was attacked by DMK ministers for speaking out against the DMK government which was just elected after the split of the AIADMK into the  Jayalalithaa and Janaki factions.  It was that attack on Jayalalithaa's modesty as a women that really propelled her into a TN political superstar.

Anyway I am sure the movie will whitewash the her disastrous 1991-1996 term as CM riddled with corruption culminating in the infamous 1995 wedding for her adopted son which must have broke records on being the most expensive wedding in modern Indian history. 

The Tamil trailer is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nt_G_Ti8lAo

It seems the release will be after the TN elections to avoid accusations of it being an election propaganda for AIADMK.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/mamata-banerjee-urged-trinamool-defector-to-return-in-leaked-call-bjp-2400282

"Mamata Banerjee Urged Trinamool Defector To Return In Leaked Call: BJP"

https://www.freepressjournal.in/india/war-of-audio-clips-in-west-bengal-after-bjps-viral-tape-on-mamata-tmc-releases-mukul-roys-conversation-on-how-to-influence-ec

"War of audio clips in West Bengal: After BJP's viral tape on Mamata, TMC releases Mukul Roy's conversation on how to influence EC"

In WB as the voting in the phase 1 was in progress BJP and AITC had a war of recordings.  First BJP released an alleged recording of  AITC CM Mamata Banerjee calling a former AITC party worker in Nandigram that have since joined the BJP and became the BJP deputy leader of the district pleading for him to return to work for her.  The purpose is to show that  Mamata Banerjee and AITC was desperate.

Within a couple of hours AITC struck back by releasing an alleged recording of BJP leader Mukul Roy  telling another BJP operative on how to influence ECI.  The topic in question is the issue of poll agents.  The recording points out that current rules that polling agents must be from the same district will leave the BJP without poll agents in many booths.  It seems a few days ago ECI came out with a ruling that said party polling agents does not need to be from the same district which AITC cried foul.  The allege recording seems to imply that ECI was acting on behalf of the BJP.

There is strong reason to believe that both recording are doctored but clearly if true the recording of BJP and ECI is more serious.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/bjp-will-sweep-assam-west-bengal-amit-shah-after-polling-for-1st-phase-concludes-231712

"BJP will sweep Assam, West Bengal: Amit Shah after polling for 1st phase concludes"

Amit Shah press conference claims BJP will win 26 out of 30 in Phase 1 WB and 37 out of 47 in Phase 1 Assam.


When Amit Shah said BJP will win 37 out of 47 seats in Assam phase 1, his usage of 47 seems to imply BJP-AGP will win 37 out of 47 seats since in phase 1 BJP is only contesting 39 out of the 47 seats.  If if indeed Amit Shah is predicting BJP-AGP winning 37 out of 47 phase 1 seats, it is good but not a great result.  In the Ground Zero Assam poll that had UPA beating NDA 67-59 overall it has NDA beating UPA in phase 1 33-14.  Even if Amit Shah's prediction comes true for Assam then it it still a 50/50 race that leans NDA for Assam overall and nowhere the blowout Amit Shah seems to imply.

As for WB, I agree if the result is anywhere what Amit Shah claims the BJP would have won WB by a good margin.  

[jaichind]

Right now my gut feeling on results are

TN: UPA landslide
Puducherry: NDA landslide
Kerala: Narrow UDF win
Assam: Narrow UPA win
WB: Significant BJP win

The range of outcomes for WB is quite wide and that range will only narrow with exit polls.  But overall I think all 5 states/UT will see the ruling party/bloc defeated.

[eos]

Right now my gut feeling on results are

TN: UPA landslide
Puducherry: NDA landslide
Kerala: Narrow UDF win
Assam: Narrow UPA win
WB: Significant BJP win

The range of outcomes for WB is quite wide and that range will only narrow with exit polls.  But overall I think all 5 states/UT will see the ruling party/bloc defeated.

Would a TMC defeat in West Bengal be a positive development for UPA in 2024?

[jaichind]

Right now my gut feeling on results are

TN: UPA landslide
Puducherry: NDA landslide
Kerala: Narrow UDF win
Assam: Narrow UPA win
WB: Significant BJP win

The range of outcomes for WB is quite wide and that range will only narrow with exit polls.  But overall I think all 5 states/UT will see the ruling party/bloc defeated.

Would a TMC defeat in West Bengal be a positive development for UPA in 2024?

My scenario is pretty close to an ideal scenario for Rahul Gandhi.  Only thing better is if Left Front-INC hold the balance of power between AITC and BJP.  All things equal my scenario would most likely mean Rahul Gandhi returns to Prez of INC and assuming INC performs reasonably well in the 2022 and 2023 assembly elections Rahul Gandhi will be leading the anti-BJP forces in 2024.  I still think NDA will win in 2024 but perhaps UPA does well enough to make 2029 a real race.

[prag_prog]

Very informative thread. I am originally from one of the Southern states (Andhra) which used to be the best state for INC/UPA when they were in power in 2000's..it was the state where INC won their highest number of MP seats in that decade but now they are totally decimated in my home state. INC's decision to divide Andhra in 2013 (which led to formation of new state - Telengana) backfired so terribly that they are struggling to win even a single MLA seat in Andhra currently. Almost all the leaders have left the party and it's kinda become a joke in Andhra now. They went from 29 seats in Andhra alone in 2009 to now 2 seats in both Andhra & Telengana combined (0 in Andhra and 2 in Telengana). I just don't see them making a come back in Andhra in near future. Their only hope is to atleast get Jagan (leader and CM of current ruling party in Andhra) to join UPA but chances of that happening is slim as Jagan will forever be extremely pissed about how Gandhis treated him during early 2010's after his father's death.

[jaichind]

Very informative thread. I am originally from one of the Southern states (Andhra) which used to be the best state for INC/UPA when they were in power in 2000's..it was the state where INC won their highest number of MP seats in that decade but now they are totally decimated in my home state. INC's decision to divide Andhra in 2013 (which led to formation of new state - Telengana) backfired so terribly that they are struggling to win even a single MLA seat in Andhra currently. Almost all the leaders have left the party and it's kinda become a joke in Andhra now. They went from 29 seats in Andhra alone in 2009 to now 2 seats in both Andhra & Telengana combined (0 in Andhra and 2 in Telengana). I just don't see them making a come back in Andhra in near future. Their only hope is to atleast get Jagan (leader and CM of current ruling party in Andhra) to join UPA but chances of that happening is slim as Jagan will forever be extremely pissed about how Gandhis treated him during early 2010's after his father's death.

Totally agree.  Back in 2019 right after the LS landslide victory for BJP and debacle for INC I wrote on where things went wrong for INC.  I identified the death of AP INC CM YSR in 2009 as the start of INC falling apart.

Thinking about where things went wrong for INC I concluded that for me it really started with the death of YSR, INC CM of AP, in an helocoper accident right after the 2009 election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Andhra_Pradesh_Chief_Minister_helicopter_crash

This event set of a chain of events that destroyed the Sonia Gandhi brand and allowed for the total meltdown of INC in 2014 which its still has not really recovered from.  The real reason, in my mind, for the 2009 INC victory, is that the Sonia Gandhi brand was well above that of the BJP.  Sonia Gandhi was actually not that popular before 2004 and was clearly less popular than BJP PM Vajpayee.  Her ability to chain up a loos coalition of anti-BJP parties in 2004 plus a serious state level anti-incumbency threw the election to INC in 2004.  But when it appeared that she was poised to become PM she gave it up to have Manmohan Singh to become PM.  This selfless act, regardless of the real reasons behind it, propelled her image that place nation above herself and her party.

After AP CM YSR passed away INC high command bungled dealing with YSR's son Jagan Reddy's demands his share of power in AP.  As a result Jagan Reddy formed YSRCP which clearly took away the INC base in the Seemandhra (non-Telangana) part of AP.  The weakened in INC in AP allowed TRS's KCR to step up demands of Telangana.  Seeing that its position weakened in AP to the point of total annihilation, Sonia Gandhi acted in 2013 to grand the creation of  Telangana hoping to retrieve the INC position in  Telangana even as it writes up it base in Seemandhra to YSRCP.  That very act projected an image of Sonia Gandhi putting the interests of INC above that of the nation and destroyed her brand.   While it was clear that UPA will lose in 2014 the polls did not really show a NDA landslide back in 2013.  It was really after the UPA decision to create Telangana that the INC position in the polls started to drop dramatically even as Sonia Gandhi did achieve her tactical goals of persevering the INC position in  Telangana.

At the time this did not seem obvious in 2009 and the decline of INC in AP after the death YSR was an existential to INC because the BJP itself did not hit rock bottom until 2012 when it was hammered in the UP assembly elections nearly dropping to 4th place behind SP BSP and almost INC-RLD.  It was only Modi's assembly victory in late 2012 in the Gujarat assembly by a wide margin was it clear that the BJP position was rising upward.

Looking back now almost 10 years later it seems to me that the most recent and potentially permeate decline of INC really started with the death of the AP INC CM YSR in 2009.   

[eos]

Right now my gut feeling on results are

TN: UPA landslide
Puducherry: NDA landslide
Kerala: Narrow UDF win
Assam: Narrow UPA win
WB: Significant BJP win

The range of outcomes for WB is quite wide and that range will only narrow with exit polls.  But overall I think all 5 states/UT will see the ruling party/bloc defeated.

Would a TMC defeat in West Bengal be a positive development for UPA in 2024?

My scenario is pretty close to an ideal scenario for Rahul Gandhi.  Only thing better is if Left Front-INC hold the balance of power between AITC and BJP.  All things equal my scenario would most likely mean Rahul Gandhi returns to Prez of INC and assuming INC performs reasonably well in the 2022 and 2023 assembly elections Rahul Gandhi will be leading the anti-BJP forces in 2024.  I still think NDA will win in 2024 but perhaps UPA does well enough to make 2029 a real race.

Can Rahul Gandhi's brand really withstand another defeat in 2024? Or do you think the INC can do well enough for him to emerge stronger, even if UPA concedes the government to the NDA once again?

I personally think Rahul Gandhi needs to make himself the undisputed leader of INC. They can't keep going back to Sonia Gandhi the moment it looks his brand is threatened. INC also needs to get the old guard and palace politicians close to Sonia Gandhi to retire. Promote leaders like Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan before its too late. Jyoti Rao Scindia was another prominent young face, but he went over to the BJP because INC kept favouring old faces like Digvijay Singh and Kamal Nath.

[eos]

The Jagan Mohan debacle seems absolutely ridiculous. Why were INC so against giving him the opportunity to succeed his father? Worried about creating a local dynasty?

Also, don't discount the damage done to the INC brand by Anna Hazare and Arvind Kejriwal's anti-corruption movement. It greatly benefited the BJP, who were able to highlight corruption scandals without seeming partisan. Lastly, Rahul Gandhi's brand took a severe damage in the 2 years leading up to the 2014 election. BJP's so-called IT cell popularised the term "pappu", meaning 'small boy', to delegitimise him nationally. Before that, I remember Rahul Gandhi had a fairly popular brand, and used to be credited with UPA's success in 2009.

[eos]

Very informative thread. I am originally from one of the Southern states (Andhra) which used to be the best state for INC/UPA when they were in power in 2000's..it was the state where INC won their highest number of MP seats in that decade but now they are totally decimated in my home state. INC's decision to divide Andhra in 2013 (which led to formation of new state - Telengana) backfired so terribly that they are struggling to win even a single MLA seat in Andhra currently. Almost all the leaders have left the party and it's kinda become a joke in Andhra now. They went from 29 seats in Andhra alone in 2009 to now 2 seats in both Andhra & Telengana combined (0 in Andhra and 2 in Telengana). I just don't see them making a come back in Andhra in near future. Their only hope is to atleast get Jagan (leader and CM of current ruling party in Andhra) to join UPA but chances of that happening is slim as Jagan will forever be extremely pissed about how Gandhis treated him during early 2010's after his father's death.

Well, today's friends can become tomorrow's enemies, and vice versa. It was strange seeing INC allying with JDS in Karnataka, and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. Jagan Reddy doesn't need the INC now, but I can see him joining the UPA if it can benefit him politically. On the other hand, I can also see him helping NDA if they fall short of a majority in 2024.