India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[eos]

Oh wait, I got confused, sorry. You are talking about a 10% drop off from their 2019 shares. I was looking at figures for 2016.

Yep, what some local media are saying is that the expect NDA vote share to fall 10% relative to 2019 LS elections in Upper Assam based on what they saw.  This is pretty consistent with other state assembly elections that voted after the 2019 LS elections.  But if true it would be very disappointing to BJP where they had hoped for a mega landslide in Upper Assam to cancel out any losses in Lower Assam and Barak Valley.  

If we assume, which is reasonable, that most of the 10% drop are to the AJP-RD, and if we take into account of some INC vote share loss to AJP-RD but made up by AIUDF and Left parties shift to INC, we are looking at something like 5%-6% swing against the BJP relative to 2019 LS elections.  If so then NDA still wins Upper Assam with ease but not with enough seats to claim victory overall.  In this case the election will be decided on how well the AIUDF vote transfers to BPF and INC in Lower Assam and Barak Valley.  The 14 seats AIUDF got as part of UPA alliance are mostly safe so the issue of INC vote transfer to AIUDF most likely will not matter as much.

Can't some of the drop off be due to a BJP to INC swing? There are many Adivasi 'tea tribe' voters in Upper Assam. They are traditional INC voters who became pro-BJP in 2014.

Totally possible.  And if true then BJP might have lost the election already.

I am certain UPA won these phase 1 seats: Dhing, Batodraba, Rupohihat, Samaguri, Naobicha, Mariani, Lakhimpur, and Titabar. 80% sure INC won in Nazira and Amguri. INC also has a 50-50 chance in another 20 seats, such as Barchalla, Tezpur, Rangapara, Sootea, Gohpur, Golaghat, Dergaon, Jorhat, Teok, Thowra, Sibsagar, Bihpuria, Dhakuakhana, Dhemaji, Moran, Duliajan, Naharkatia, Doom Dooma, Sadiya.

For the 50-50 seats, I think there are three factors necessary for an INC win, depending on the seat in question.

(1) Consolidation of INC-AIUDF-Left vote
(2) AJP-RD taking the traditionally regionalist AGP votes due to CAA, rather than from INC
(3) Return of some Adivasi tea tribe voters to INC

Many of the 50-50 seats are leaning NDA, so I wouldn't be too surprised to see INC lose most of these. However, I wouldn't be too surprised to see INC win in some of these either.

At the moment, 37/47 seems to be on the optimistic side for the BJP/NDA. If they can't get at least 37 , they will need to perform extremely well in phase 2 and 3. However, every opinion poll so far points to UPA winning 45-55 from phase 2 and 3. I think UPA will win more than 50, as much as 55. As long as UPA wins the 10 probable seats I mentioned above, they are within touching grounds of forming the government.

[jaichind]

Can Rahul Gandhi's brand really withstand another defeat in 2024? Or do you think the INC can do well enough for him to emerge stronger, even if UPA concedes the government to the NDA once again?

I personally think Rahul Gandhi needs to make himself the undisputed leader of INC. They can't keep going back to Sonia Gandhi the moment it looks his brand is threatened. INC also needs to get the old guard and palace politicians close to Sonia Gandhi to retire. Promote leaders like Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan before its too late. Jyoti Rao Scindia was another prominent young face, but he went over to the BJP because INC kept favouring old faces like Digvijay Singh and Kamal Nath.

In any normal party, no.  In case INC does well enough in this round of elections leading to the return of Rahul Gandhi back in charge and he manages to lose 2024 as it is likely most normal parties would kick him out for good.  Unfortunately  for INC, it is really a confederation of various factions all looking for a member of the Gandhi family to settle disputes and be the main vote getter.  Last decade or so the Gandhi family vote has dwindled so this system is breaking down.  Still I think there is still no alternative to the Gandhi family even after a likely 2024 LS election. 

I always felt the way out for INC is to run the party like a franchise.  Still have Rahul Gandhi at the top for branding purposes but delegate the main vote getting to local leaders who in turn get a start in politics with a clear political brand with name recognition.   The Gandhi family then is mostly about running this confederation and in alliance with other parties try to capture national party.  Given the leadership perception gap between Rahul Gandhi and Modi it still means defeat in the LS elections but does allow INC to live to fight another day when Modi retires and the population tires of BJP.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Can Rahul Gandhi's brand really withstand another defeat in 2024? Or do you think the INC can do well enough for him to emerge stronger, even if UPA concedes the government to the NDA once again?

I personally think Rahul Gandhi needs to make himself the undisputed leader of INC. They can't keep going back to Sonia Gandhi the moment it looks his brand is threatened. INC also needs to get the old guard and palace politicians close to Sonia Gandhi to retire. Promote leaders like Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan before its too late. Jyoti Rao Scindia was another prominent young face, but he went over to the BJP because INC kept favouring old faces like Digvijay Singh and Kamal Nath.

In any normal party, no.  In case INC does well enough in this round of elections leading to the return of Rahul Gandhi back in charge and he manages to lose 2024 as it is likely most normal parties would kick him out for good.  Unfortunately  for INC, it is really a confederation of various factions all looking for a member of the Gandhi family to settle disputes and be the main vote getter.  Last decade or so the Gandhi family vote has dwindled so this system is breaking down.  Still I think there is still no alternative to the Gandhi family even after a likely 2024 LS election. 

I always felt the way out for INC is to run the party like a franchise.  Still have Rahul Gandhi at the top for branding purposes but delegate the main vote getting to local leaders who in turn get a start in politics with a clear political brand with name recognition.   The Gandhi family then is mostly about running this confederation and in alliance with other parties try to capture national party.  Given the leadership perception gap between Rahul Gandhi and Modi it still means defeat in the LS elections but does allow INC to live to fight another day when Modi retires and the population tires of BJP.

The INC strategy of trying to run out the clock could mean probably at least another 10 years before they have a chance of winning power again and after 18-20 years of BJP rule then even if congress gets back in, much of the changes implemented by the BJP will have long been cemented and almost impossible to roll back

[jaichind]

The Jagan Mohan debacle seems absolutely ridiculous. Why were INC so against giving him the opportunity to succeed his father? Worried about creating a local dynasty?

Also, don't discount the damage done to the INC brand by Anna Hazare and Arvind Kejriwal's anti-corruption movement. It greatly benefited the BJP, who were able to highlight corruption scandals without seeming partisan. Lastly, Rahul Gandhi's brand took a severe damage in the 2 years leading up to the 2014 election. BJP's so-called IT cell popularised the term "pappu", meaning 'small boy', to delegitimise him nationally. Before that, I remember Rahul Gandhi had a fairly popular brand, and used to be credited with UPA's success in 2009.

Of course the reason why INC could not work out a deal with Jagan is fear that they are growing a local dynasty.  The logic is what we Chinese say 功高震主 or large accomplishments by a subordinate is a threat to the master which is a saying from the Han Dynasty.  This whole thing started in the 1980s when Indira Gandhi insisted on having sycophant CM due to her conflict with her former loyalist Karnataka CM Urs in 1979.  The reason why this sort of "worked" was because Indira Gandhi was the one pulling in most of the vote anyway.  Still this style of management lost plenty of states for INC since then starting with Karnataka and AP in 1983 and plenty more after that.  INC continues to operate like this despite the fact that now the Gandhi clan does not even pull in the vote anymore.

You are now seeing the BJP become infected this "INC disease."  A lot of BJP choices of CM are more about making sure they do not have a mass base that can threaten the center.  The only BJP CM that was able to win elections in his own is BJP Karnataka CM Yediyurappa.  And frankly if BJP could they will be glad to get rid of Yediyurappa expect for the fact that they cannot win in Karnataka without him.  If Yogi Adityanath leads the BJP to re-election in 2022 in UP I expect tension to build up between Modi-Shah and Yogi Adityanath.

As for Rahul Gandhi's image.  He came off very badly in 2014 but in 2019 I actually felt he was getting better on the stump.  It is just the gap is still too big between him and Modi.  In 2009 he incorrectly got credit for INC doing well in UP when it was really the urban vote shifting INC due to the Manmohan Singh factor PLUS the shift  of Muslim votes from SP to INC due to SP alliance with former BJP CM Kalyan Singh.  But I guess the INC PR machine managed to give Rahul Gandhi credit for it.

[jaichind]

I am certain UPA won these phase 1 seats: Dhing, Batodraba, Rupohihat, Samaguri, Naobicha, Mariani, Lakhimpur, and Titabar. 80% sure INC won in Nazira and Amguri. INC also has a 50-50 chance in another 20 seats, such as Barchalla, Tezpur, Rangapara, Sootea, Gohpur, Golaghat, Dergaon, Jorhat, Teok, Thowra, Sibsagar, Bihpuria, Dhakuakhana, Dhemaji, Moran, Duliajan, Naharkatia, Doom Dooma, Sadiya.

For the 50-50 seats, I think there are three factors necessary for an INC win, depending on the seat in question.

(1) Consolidation of INC-AIUDF-Left vote
(2) AJP-RD taking the traditionally regionalist AGP votes due to CAA, rather than from INC
(3) Return of some Adivasi tea tribe voters to INC

Many of the 50-50 seats are leaning NDA, so I wouldn't be too surprised to see INC lose most of these. However, I wouldn't be too surprised to see INC win in some of these either.

At the moment, 37/47 seems to be on the optimistic side for the BJP/NDA. If they can't get at least 37 , they will need to perform extremely well in phase 2 and 3. However, every opinion poll so far points to UPA winning 45-55 from phase 2 and 3. I think UPA will win more than 50, as much as 55. As long as UPA wins the 10 probable seats I mentioned above, they are within touching grounds of forming the government.

I have as sure UPA wins: Dhing, Batodraba, Rupohihat, Samaguri, Naobicha, Mariani
I have Lakhimpur, and Titabar as tossup
I have  Nazira as sure UPA win but Amgur as tossup.

I think NDA winning 37 out of 47 is doable if they sweep all the tossups.  One does have to give them a chance to do so.  There must be a cost to INC-AIUDF alliance (every action has a reaction) and this is the place for the cost to show up.

In Assam phase 1 seats the NDA won 36 out of 47 seats in 2016.  Now Amit Shah is predicting just a gain of 1 from 2016.  And we know there will be losses for NDA in Lower Assam and Barat Valley.  It seems the best the NDA could do is a narrow majority although it also seems the best UPA can do is also a narrow majority.

[jaichind]

Very informative thread. I am originally from one of the Southern states (Andhra) which used to be the best state for INC/UPA when they were in power in 2000's..it was the state where INC won their highest number of MP seats in that decade but now they are totally decimated in my home state. INC's decision to divide Andhra in 2013 (which led to formation of new state - Telengana) backfired so terribly that they are struggling to win even a single MLA seat in Andhra currently. Almost all the leaders have left the party and it's kinda become a joke in Andhra now. They went from 29 seats in Andhra alone in 2009 to now 2 seats in both Andhra & Telengana combined (0 in Andhra and 2 in Telengana). I just don't see them making a come back in Andhra in near future. Their only hope is to atleast get Jagan (leader and CM of current ruling party in Andhra) to join UPA but chances of that happening is slim as Jagan will forever be extremely pissed about how Gandhis treated him during early 2010's after his father's death.

Well, today's friends can become tomorrow's enemies, and vice versa. It was strange seeing INC allying with JDS in Karnataka, and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. Jagan Reddy doesn't need the INC now, but I can see him joining the UPA if it can benefit him politically. On the other hand, I can also see him helping NDA if they fall short of a majority in 2024.

TDP and YSRCP in AP will be just like DMK and AIADMK and TN.  They will just do square dancing partner changes all the time between INC and BJP. 

[jaichind]

The INC strategy of trying to run out the clock could mean probably at least another 10 years before they have a chance of winning power again and after 18-20 years of BJP rule then even if congress gets back in, much of the changes implemented by the BJP will have long been cemented and almost impossible to roll back

You are most likely right.  Although Woody Allen once said that 80 percent of success in life is just showing up.  As long as INC continues to be the national alternative to the BJP means that even Even a broken clock is right twice a day and the INC will get back in eventually.  I am not even sure that there is that much of a difference between INC and BJP policy-wise in practice.  The ease BJP and INC MPs and MLA defect to each other is a clear sign of this. 

[jaichind]

VMR poll on Kerala from a few days ago

                Seats     Vote share
LDF             82            43.65%
UDF            54             37.37%
NDA             3             16.46%
Others          1              2.52%


If you read details of the poll they admit most of the survey was done before a lot of the candidate came out and they admit that most likely the survey underestimates UDF in several seats.

If you go seat by seat it seems this survey has KEC(Mani) moving a bunch Christian votes from UDF to LDF PLUS NDA eating into the UDF vote in Southern Kerala.  Both these factors have mitigated the natural swing from LDF to UDF to produce a result very similar to 2016 in terms of seats and vote share.

[eos]

Can Rahul Gandhi's brand really withstand another defeat in 2024? Or do you think the INC can do well enough for him to emerge stronger, even if UPA concedes the government to the NDA once again?

I personally think Rahul Gandhi needs to make himself the undisputed leader of INC. They can't keep going back to Sonia Gandhi the moment it looks his brand is threatened. INC also needs to get the old guard and palace politicians close to Sonia Gandhi to retire. Promote leaders like Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan before its too late. Jyoti Rao Scindia was another prominent young face, but he went over to the BJP because INC kept favouring old faces like Digvijay Singh and Kamal Nath.

In any normal party, no.  In case INC does well enough in this round of elections leading to the return of Rahul Gandhi back in charge and he manages to lose 2024 as it is likely most normal parties would kick him out for good.  Unfortunately  for INC, it is really a confederation of various factions all looking for a member of the Gandhi family to settle disputes and be the main vote getter.  Last decade or so the Gandhi family vote has dwindled so this system is breaking down.  Still I think there is still no alternative to the Gandhi family even after a likely 2024 LS election. 

I always felt the way out for INC is to run the party like a franchise.  Still have Rahul Gandhi at the top for branding purposes but delegate the main vote getting to local leaders who in turn get a start in politics with a clear political brand with name recognition.   The Gandhi family then is mostly about running this confederation and in alliance with other parties try to capture national party.  Given the leadership perception gap between Rahul Gandhi and Modi it still means defeat in the LS elections but does allow INC to live to fight another day when Modi retires and the population tires of BJP.

When do you think Modi could retire? I think he wants to stick around for another 5 years after 2024, before handing it over to Amit Shah.

[eos]

Do you think if the UPA forms a government in Assam, the INC will shy away from giving the CM post to Tarun Gogoi's son, Gaurav Gogoi?

Other contenders are the state INC chief, Ripun Bora, in addition to Debabrata Saikia, who is the leader of the opposition, and perhaps also Pradyut Bordoloi, a LS MP. Debabrata Saikia's father was also a Chief Minister of Assam.

[eos]

I am certain UPA won these phase 1 seats: Dhing, Batodraba, Rupohihat, Samaguri, Naobicha, Mariani, Lakhimpur, and Titabar. 80% sure INC won in Nazira and Amguri. INC also has a 50-50 chance in another 20 seats, such as Barchalla, Tezpur, Rangapara, Sootea, Gohpur, Golaghat, Dergaon, Jorhat, Teok, Thowra, Sibsagar, Bihpuria, Dhakuakhana, Dhemaji, Moran, Duliajan, Naharkatia, Doom Dooma, Sadiya.

For the 50-50 seats, I think there are three factors necessary for an INC win, depending on the seat in question.

(1) Consolidation of INC-AIUDF-Left vote
(2) AJP-RD taking the traditionally regionalist AGP votes due to CAA, rather than from INC
(3) Return of some Adivasi tea tribe voters to INC

Many of the 50-50 seats are leaning NDA, so I wouldn't be too surprised to see INC lose most of these. However, I wouldn't be too surprised to see INC win in some of these either.

At the moment, 37/47 seems to be on the optimistic side for the BJP/NDA. If they can't get at least 37 , they will need to perform extremely well in phase 2 and 3. However, every opinion poll so far points to UPA winning 45-55 from phase 2 and 3. I think UPA will win more than 50, as much as 55. As long as UPA wins the 10 probable seats I mentioned above, they are within touching grounds of forming the government.

I have as sure UPA wins: Dhing, Batodraba, Rupohihat, Samaguri, Naobicha, Mariani
I have Lakhimpur, and Titabar as tossup
I have  Nazira as sure UPA win but Amgur as tossup.

I think NDA winning 37 out of 47 is doable if they sweep all the tossups.  One does have to give them a chance to do so.  There must be a cost to INC-AIUDF alliance (every action has a reaction) and this is the place for the cost to show up.

In Assam phase 1 seats the NDA won 36 out of 47 seats in 2016.  Now Amit Shah is predicting just a gain of 1 from 2016.  And we know there will be losses for NDA in Lower Assam and Barat Valley.  It seems the best the NDA could do is a narrow majority although it also seems the best UPA can do is also a narrow majority.

Still, I think 37/47 is a best case scenario for NDA. They need everything to break their way for that.

[jaichind]

When do you think Modi could retire? I think he wants to stick around for another 5 years after 2024, before handing it over to Amit Shah.

Yeah.  It seems likely he will try to run for re-election in 2024 and then pass things over to Amit Shah after 2024.  The good news for the BJP is that Modi is single and has no children which simplifies succession.    After 2024 LS elections it will be Amit Shah vs Yogi Adityanath for the battle over who leads the BJP.

[jaichind]

Do you think if the UPA forms a government in Assam, the INC will shy away from giving the CM post to Tarun Gogoi's son, Gaurav Gogoi?

Other contenders are the state INC chief, Ripun Bora, in addition to Debabrata Saikia, who is the leader of the opposition, and perhaps also Pradyut Bordoloi, a LS MP. Debabrata Saikia's father was also a Chief Minister of Assam.

I have no idea.  All I know is if INC does in they will give credit to Rahul Gandhi and then there will be some negotiations behind the scenes to figure out CM in INC High Command.  This time of course they will have to also take the views of AIUDF and BPF into account.  BPF will be very important since they have the option of defecting back to BJP if the BJP dumps UPPL. 

[jaichind]

Phase 2 voting in WB coming up

Just like phase 1, these seats are part of the old Left Front strongholds that are now trending BJP as the old Left Front Hindu vote migrate to BJP.  There are more Muslims in these seats than phase 1 which makes it harder for BJP to make gains

In 2019 LS these seats went AITC 17 BJP 13.  Most likely BJP will gain on top of this.  Not clear by how much.

[eos]

Do you think if the UPA forms a government in Assam, the INC will shy away from giving the CM post to Tarun Gogoi's son, Gaurav Gogoi?

Other contenders are the state INC chief, Ripun Bora, in addition to Debabrata Saikia, who is the leader of the opposition, and perhaps also Pradyut Bordoloi, a LS MP. Debabrata Saikia's father was also a Chief Minister of Assam.

I have no idea.  All I know is if INC does in they will give credit to Rahul Gandhi and then there will be some negotiations behind the scenes to figure out CM in INC High Command.  This time of course they will have to also take the views of AIUDF and BPF into account.  BPF will be very important since they have the option of defecting back to BJP if the BJP dumps UPPL. 

It will be very interesting because Tarun Gogoi was a popular and recent CM of Assam. The INC were afraid to let Jagmohan Reddy succeed his father, and yet there is a sizeable number of Gogoi loyalists who want his son, Gaurav, to succeed him.

Himanta Biswa Sarma became estranged from Tarun Gogoi because he wanted to become CM, and suspected that Gogoi was grooming his own son to succeed him. When Gogoi continued to project himself as a CM candidate through 2015, Himanta rebelled, realising Gogoi meant to leave no earlier than 2021. This would give sufficient time for Gaurav Gogoi to emerge as a leader. Indeed, we can see now that Gaurav Gogoi is a CM candidate.

I think the AIUDF will favour Ripun Bora, who pushed for an alliance despite misgivings of other top INC leaders. https://www.telegraphindia.com/north-east/congress-leaders-seek-new-assam-chief/cid/1801788

The BPF had good relations with Tarun Gogoi. They might support Gaurav Gogoi. I am not sure the BFP will go back to the NDA as long as Himanta Biswa Sarma is pushing for the top spot. The BFP conditions will presumably include power over the BTC, and Sarbananda Sonowal as NDA CM. Himanta will presumably find these too humiliating to accept since he pushed for the BFP's ouster.

[eos]

Phase 2 voting in WB coming up

Just like phase 1, these seats are part of the old Left Front strongholds that are now trending BJP as the old Left Front Hindu vote migrate to BJP.  There are more Muslims in these seats than phase 1 which makes it harder for BJP to make gains

In 2019 LS these seats went AITC 17 BJP 13.  Most likely BJP will gain on top of this.  Not clear by how much. [/img]

Modi apparently didn't campaign in Nandigram, where Mamata Banerjee is contesting against her one-time lieutenant, Suvendu Adhikari.

According to some reports, Adhikari was upset with the promotion of Abhishek Banerjee, Mamata Banerjee's nephew. Others say he was pressured over some corruption scandal, and the BJP vouched to drop these cases if he joined them. This seems kind of similar to the case of Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam. Himanta not only lost his bid to succeed Tarun Gogoi, but he was also implicated in the Louis Berger scandal, and there were rumors that the BJP vouched to drop the case if he joined them. If true, the BJP under Modi and Amit Shah are ruthless.

[eos]

When do you think Modi could retire? I think he wants to stick around for another 5 years after 2024, before handing it over to Amit Shah.

Yeah.  It seems likely he will try to run for re-election in 2024 and then pass things over to Amit Shah after 2024.  The good news for the BJP is that Modi is single and has no children which simplifies succession.    After 2024 LS elections it will be Amit Shah vs Yogi Adityanath for the battle over who leads the BJP.

How acceptable is Yogi to non-rural BJP supporters?

[jaichind]

Thanthi TV (local TN media) district by district poll.   Their plan is to poll every constituency although the sample size is only 200 per constituency.  They are doing them 50 constituency at a time.

Yesterday's 50 it was DMK+ 34, AIADMK+ 12, too close to call 4.

Today's 50 is, DMK+ 42, AIADMK+ 5, too close to call 3.



Which makes the 100 constituency they polled so far DMK+ 76, AIADMK+ 17, too close to call 7

If you look at their results seat by seat it seems that the DMK+ and AIADMK+ vote share gap does not seem large (most likely around 6% or so.)  In many seats the DMK+ edge over AIADMK+ edge is small.  In many seats the vote transfer of the 2016 PMK and 2016 BJP vote is keeping the AIADMK+ bloc close across the board despite a clear swing from AIADMK+ to DMK+ and AMMK+

So far this poll is an extreme version of what I said about TN, that the swings are quite uniform and that once the vote share gap is above 7%-8% the seat gap becomes massive and moves into landslide territory.  This poll seems to indicate that the landslide vote share gap is more like 6%.

[jaichind]

Do you think if the UPA forms a government in Assam, the INC will shy away from giving the CM post to Tarun Gogoi's son, Gaurav Gogoi?

Other contenders are the state INC chief, Ripun Bora, in addition to Debabrata Saikia, who is the leader of the opposition, and perhaps also Pradyut Bordoloi, a LS MP. Debabrata Saikia's father was also a Chief Minister of Assam.

I have no idea.  All I know is if INC does in they will give credit to Rahul Gandhi and then there will be some negotiations behind the scenes to figure out CM in INC High Command.  This time of course they will have to also take the views of AIUDF and BPF into account.  BPF will be very important since they have the option of defecting back to BJP if the BJP dumps UPPL.  

It will be very interesting because Tarun Gogoi was a popular and recent CM of Assam. The INC were afraid to let Jagmohan Reddy succeed his father, and yet there is a sizeable number of Gogoi loyalists who want his son, Gaurav, to succeed him.

Himanta Biswa Sarma became estranged from Tarun Gogoi because he wanted to become CM, and suspected that Gogoi was grooming his own son to succeed him. When Gogoi continued to project himself as a CM candidate through 2015, Himanta rebelled, realising Gogoi meant to leave no earlier than 2021. This would give sufficient time for Gaurav Gogoi to emerge as a leader. Indeed, we can see now that Gaurav Gogoi is a CM candidate.

I think the AIUDF will favour Ripun Bora, who pushed for an alliance despite misgivings of other top INC leaders. https://www.telegraphindia.com/north-east/congress-leaders-seek-new-assam-chief/cid/1801788

The BPF had good relations with Tarun Gogoi. They might support Gaurav Gogoi. I am not sure the BFP will go back to the NDA as long as Himanta Biswa Sarma is pushing for the top spot. The BFP conditions will presumably include power over the BTC, and Sarbananda Sonowal as NDA CM. Himanta will presumably find these too humiliating to accept since he pushed for the BFP's ouster.

If the UPA does win it was done without projecting Gaurav Gogoi as the CM candidate.  If BPF backs Gaurav Gogoi I do not think INC high command would think that Gaurav Gogoi is a threat.  There are other INC factions that might object but most likely they will fall in line if the INC high command makes a call.  The main danger to the UPA government would be if the BJP tries to break BPF if the UPA majority is narrow as it is likely to be if it wins.

On the flip side if the NDA majority is narrow and Himanta Biswa Sarma is not picked by BJP to be the CM I can see Himanta Biswa Sarma playing some games to perhaps even defect back to INC to become CM.

[jaichind]

When do you think Modi could retire? I think he wants to stick around for another 5 years after 2024, before handing it over to Amit Shah.

Yeah.  It seems likely he will try to run for re-election in 2024 and then pass things over to Amit Shah after 2024.  The good news for the BJP is that Modi is single and has no children which simplifies succession.    After 2024 LS elections it will be Amit Shah vs Yogi Adityanath for the battle over who leads the BJP.

How acceptable is Yogi to non-rural BJP supporters?

Adityanath seems to be very popular to the core BJP votes and are being independently asked by BJP candidates all over the country to campaign for them.  He seems only second to Modi inside the BJP as a campaign crowd draw.  I would have thought that Adityanath's influence  would be limited to the Cow belt but BJP candidates in places like Telangana and WB are also asking him to campaign.    I still think his appeal would not be as wide as Modi. 

But if he does well in the 2022 UP assembly election and his popularity with the BJP base grows even more the 功高震主 or large accomplishments by a subordinate is a threat to the master effect will come into play and create conflict between him and Modi-Shah.

[jaichind]

https://zeenews.india.com/india/time-has-come-to-unite-against-bjp-mamata-banerjee-writes-letter-to-sonia-gandhi-other-opposition-leaders-2351857.html

"Time has come to unite against BJP: Mamata Banerjee writes letter to Sonia Gandhi, other opposition leaders"

AITC CM Mamata Banerjee writes to INC Prez Sonia Gandhi and a bunch of other anti-BJP parties asking for unity against BJP.  Most likely it is a ploy to get anti-BJP tactical voting in the later phases in WB elections or she senses that BJP now has a real chance to win in WB and she is looking for support from anti-BJP parties for help her form a government in case of hung assembly or both.

[eos]

Tamulpur’s BPF candidate withdrew his candidature in the presence of Hiamnta Biswa Sarma. He will support the UPPL candidate. Basumatary was missing since the early morning.

https://twitter.com/atanubhuyan/status/1377280450910035971

[eos]

When do you think Modi could retire? I think he wants to stick around for another 5 years after 2024, before handing it over to Amit Shah.

Yeah.  It seems likely he will try to run for re-election in 2024 and then pass things over to Amit Shah after 2024.  The good news for the BJP is that Modi is single and has no children which simplifies succession.    After 2024 LS elections it will be Amit Shah vs Yogi Adityanath for the battle over who leads the BJP.

How acceptable is Yogi to non-rural BJP supporters?

Adityanath seems to be very popular to the core BJP votes and are being independently asked by BJP candidates all over the country to campaign for them.  He seems only second to Modi inside the BJP as a campaign crowd draw.  I would have thought that Adityanath's influence  would be limited to the Cow belt but BJP candidates in places like Telangana and WB are also asking him to campaign.    I still think his appeal would not be as wide as Modi. 

But if he does well in the 2022 UP assembly election and his popularity with the BJP base grows even more the 功高震主 or large accomplishments by a subordinate is a threat to the master effect will come into play and create conflict between him and Modi-Shah.

Surprising. I can scarcely believe he would be acceptable to BJP voters in a metro like Delhi.

[jaichind]

Tamulpur’s BPF candidate withdrew his candidature in the presence of Hiamnta Biswa Sarma. He will support the UPPL candidate. Basumatary was missing since the early morning.

https://twitter.com/atanubhuyan/status/1377280450910035971

Wow, based on fundamentals this seat should be lean BPF.  I guess this shows that BPF, even with vote transfer from AIUDF and INC, will not sweep Bodoland.  It also shows how the BJP will try to break BPF in case of a narrow UPA majority.

[jaichind]

Adityanath seems to be very popular to the core BJP votes and are being independently asked by BJP candidates all over the country to campaign for them.  He seems only second to Modi inside the BJP as a campaign crowd draw.  I would have thought that Adityanath's influence  would be limited to the Cow belt but BJP candidates in places like Telangana and WB are also asking him to campaign.    I still think his appeal would not be as wide as Modi. 

But if he does well in the 2022 UP assembly election and his popularity with the BJP base grows even more the 功高震主 or large accomplishments by a subordinate is a threat to the master effect will come into play and create conflict between him and Modi-Shah.

Surprising. I can scarcely believe he would be acceptable to BJP voters in a metro like Delhi.

I think part of his appeal is that he is a maverick.  Yogi Adityanath and his mentor Mahant Avaidyanath were more from the HMS (Hindu Mahasabha) and only joined up with BJP in the late 1980s during the Ayodhya movement.  Even in the BJP there are plenty of cases where Yogi Adityanath undermined the election campaigns of rival BJP factions.  I think this independent, tell it like it is,  attitude has a lot of appeal to the core BJP voter.   Him being a sādhu also helps too.  Part of Modi's appeal is that he is not married and pretty much live like a sādhu which makes it easy for people to look past the policy mistakes he has made on the premise that: Well, his motivations are pure even if the results are not always good.