Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Someone somewhere mentioned that Putin intended his blitzkrieg invasion of Ukraine as the 21st century version of the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis that would be to the United States what the original was to Britain and France.  Clearly his gambit has backfired big time, revealing it is Russia -and not the United States- that can no longer be regarded as a true global superpower.  

Unless of course you consider the nuclear weapons stockpile it inherited from the Soviet Union, but then again so do Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel...and they can hardly be considered 'superpowers' in any real sense of the term.  

After the collapse of the USSR, Russia lost it's superpower status. Russia is still a great power similar to Japan, Germany, France and the UK.

You could make the argument that Russia is a regional power (Turkey, Italy, Brazil, Nigeria) that just happens to have nuclear weapons.

I’ve always assumed that a conventional conflict with Russia would be quite costly on the US/NATO side. (Infact, back in the Cold War the planners thought that the Red Army would quickly overrun continental Europe with sheer numbers, that’s why America never committed to no first use). After seeing the Ukraine operations, I doubt they fair much better than the Iraqis in the first Gulf War.

Obligatory disclaimer, nukes still means we should never, ever try it.

Beware, that Russia has not been fighting according to their training or typical tactics. In case we actually went to war with fought Russia, it would likely get very serious, very fast.

I’m aware of that, or at least heard Russia experts saying that, but I’m not talking about training and tactics, I’m talking doctrine. Big picture, the Russian army is acting like the 60s or 70s vintage Red Army, advancing on three axes in giant formations along main roads, the BTGs that are the basic unit appear to be just big clumps of soldiers as compared to the dispersed small tactical units with independent initiative of a survivable modern peer army. This is both exactly the army that the US military has been built and planning for 70 plus years to beat and looks like nothing so much as 90s Iraqis.
MAD being what it is, we’ll thankfully never have to find out, but I definitely would not want to be on the Russian end if we did.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

US officials believe a huge second wave of Russian soldiers who will be able to overwhelm the Ukrainian resistance is coming according to CNN.

This was bound to happen at some point. I guess we just have to wish that the resistance is able to keep some territory to operate out of and that the Ukrainians and the rest of the world can continue to make this as costly on Russia as possible.

The numbers are overwhelming, but the logistics are still pretty daunting for Russia. A lot of troops and tanks won't do much good if they're low on food, sleep, and gas. Hopefully the spring thaw will bog the Russians down in the mud, and roads will be blocked by destroyed columns of armored vehicles.

Even beyond that, numbers are pretty meaningless if the logistics aren’t there to deploy them. If I’ve got a hundred tanks but only the fuel and spare parts keep ten running at any given time, I’ve actually only got ten tanks.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

What's the 'easiest' way to roast a 40 mile convoy without air power?

Artillery, but the more efficient answer might be blow bridges, barricade and/or tear up roads, and let the traffic jam do the work for you.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So Okay... didn't get home from work until about two hours ago, barely checked my media coverage, and instead thought I would spend a couple hours of my life going through every single post on this thread since my last post.

See how much I love Atlas?   

So basically today sounds like a relatively slow day on multiple fronts (Militarily, Politically, Economically, and even Socially).

I know Meclazine made a light hard meme about my heavy posting Yesterday, but still it seems like most of the items I posted were actually basically reflected or accentuated in today's News updates.



All right, now that I've digested two hours of Atlas, time to take a peak at the news to see if anything has been missed.

It feels like the Russians took the day to retool. Kharkiv is under siege again and it sounds bad. Kyiv, which allegedly high command demanded fall Monday only saw some probing attacks fall back but there is a massive troop deployment headed their way. The Belarusian paratroopers never materialized but there were earlier reports of their army massing at Brest.

As always, Pray for Ukraine

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Snip

That the guy I mostly know from rooting for the worst people in the US in USGD also roots for Putin just tracks so well.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Don't believe this was posted before, but for anybody out there who is a big fan of crypto currency, it also shows why it is the most favored current currency among big bad actors from rogue states, drug dealers, tax cheats, computer financial hackers, etc...


"Some cryptocurrency exchanges said they were refusing calls to suspend Russian accounts. Unless there was a legal requirement to do so, the move would violate bitcoin’s “libertarian values, which strongly favor individualism and human rights,” Jesse Powell, the chief executive and co-founder of the U.S.-based Kraken Exchange, said on Twitter. “Our mission,” he added, “is to bridge individual humans out of the legacy financial system and bring them in to the world of crypto, where arbitrary lines on maps no longer matter.” On Sunday, Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's minister of digital transformation, had asked all major crypto exchanges to block Russian addresses."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/28/world/ukraine-russia-war

If anyone from that volunteer IT legion wants to crash this exchange, please go ahead.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions

Oh boohoo.

Tbf, this isn't just interesting because "Putin's mad." It's interesting because the West is releasing this knowing full well that it'll feed into Putin's paranoia about a rat in his inner circle. Recall, he just spent the weekend convening the top oligarchs to him at his Ural mountain lair, so at least one of said oligarchs in the room with him must not like him anymore.

Or we just tapped the phones.

But please Mr. Putin, do start turning on those guys. I’m sure none of the basically mob bosses you’ve cost millions and now are physically threatening will do anything rash.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Again, this makes no sense. I'm not Russian. I'm basically watching a football game here. I may have picked a side to support but I have no skin in the game. For some reason the vast majority of the forum, minus a few Ukrainians, thinks they do even though they are in the same situation as me.

In human cultures, the loss of life is generally considered lamentable. Hope this helps!

Yet wearing a mask is an intolerable burden to slow down COVID? While the effect of the sanctions will have a far greater impact on daily life, particularly in Europe where energy costs could surge?

I'm a believer in Long COVID. Look at the brain damage displayed above.

Or maybe we just thought he was smarter than he was because we don’t speak Russian. He just may have always been a half-mad buffoon and we never saw it because of translators.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1498688423267344391

Side note, not telling the rankers what to expect could be a huge strategic mistake if the supply clerks didn’t know that they were going to need to the fuel, ammo, and rations they were selling out the back.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Big, if true.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1498697710429425672?s=20&t=YZdP8KJk...

https://mobile.twitter.com/kfcisrael/status/1498698107533541378

I doubt they were dumb enough to leave ammo in the thing, but it’s going to be a really bad day to be in one of those giant convoys if they did.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Who needs logistics and supply lines when you can simply loot the cities you invade?

https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1498668193749118977?s=20&t=9ZC0NkLLiB_eGZ...

I shouldn’t, but the tiny shopping carts make me laugh

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson will hold an extraordinary speech to the nation at 20:00 CET.

It will be about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Whether she will tell some breaking news? We will see...

She’s calling up the Caroleans they’ve been keeping around in secret and they are taking Ingria back.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

If you read carefully through this thread, you can determine why NATO hasn’t directly intervened.

Despite what some “Russia stronk Russian nukes WWIII” posters think, it’s not because NATO is afraid of Russia.

The goal is regime change in Russia, brought about by Putin’s own actions in Ukraine.

As long as NATO doesn’t directly intervene in Ukraine, Putin can’t use it as a rallying cry tO pRoTeCt MoThEr RuSsIa. Because sadly there absolutely are many Russians who would see it that way.

So NATO/EU/the West in general will do everything they can up to the line of direct intervention to aid Ukraine.

I understand this policy; I don’t like how hard it is on the Ukrainians, but at least I grasp the logic.

Yeah, I don't buy this at all. Banking on the Russians overthrowing Putin by themselves is a stretch at best. It could happen, but I absolutely don't see NATO counting on this.

NATO is refraining from defending Ukraine because they are scared of nuclear war and because the Americans aren't really on board with entering into another war in general. I guarantee you that NATO would be totally on board if Joe Biden tomorrow said "let's kick out those damn russians". The rest of NATO is still too weak and too fragmented.

NATO isn’t refraining from defending Ukraine, they are refraining from putting their own troops in because that’s how we’ve figured out how to do things without causing a human extinction event.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

If you read carefully through this thread, you can determine why NATO hasn’t directly intervened.

Despite what some “Russia stronk Russian nukes WWIII” posters think, it’s not because NATO is afraid of Russia.

The goal is regime change in Russia, brought about by Putin’s own actions in Ukraine.

As long as NATO doesn’t directly intervene in Ukraine, Putin can’t use it as a rallying cry tO pRoTeCt MoThEr RuSsIa. Because sadly there absolutely are many Russians who would see it that way.

So NATO/EU/the West in general will do everything they can up to the line of direct intervention to aid Ukraine.

I understand this policy; I don’t like how hard it is on the Ukrainians, but at least I grasp the logic.

Yeah, I don't buy this at all. Banking on the Russians overthrowing Putin by themselves is a stretch at best. It could happen, but I absolutely don't see NATO counting on this.

NATO is refraining from defending Ukraine because they are scared of nuclear war and because the Americans aren't really on board with entering into another war in general. I guarantee you that NATO would be totally on board if Joe Biden tomorrow said "let's kick out those damn russians". The rest of NATO is still too weak and too fragmented.

NATO isn’t refraining from defending Ukraine, they are refraining from putting their own troops in because that’s how we’ve figured out how to do things without causing a human extinction event.

Let Russia do whatever genocide they want bcuz Putin said some empty threats that he would be unironically overthrown by his generals for if he tried to act on them.

We are arming the hell out of them and crippling the Russian economy. That’s what we can do.

This isn’t about Putin’s empty threats, this is about the reality that the US and Russia are both capable of wiping out humanity and if they ever fought directly  it would happen.

It’s not a reaction to whatever bullsh**t Putin is seeking, it’s been that way for 70 years, Ivan and Joe start shooting and that’s it for the human race.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

If you read carefully through this thread, you can determine why NATO hasn’t directly intervened.

Despite what some “Russia stronk Russian nukes WWIII” posters think, it’s not because NATO is afraid of Russia.

The goal is regime change in Russia, brought about by Putin’s own actions in Ukraine.

As long as NATO doesn’t directly intervene in Ukraine, Putin can’t use it as a rallying cry tO pRoTeCt MoThEr RuSsIa. Because sadly there absolutely are many Russians who would see it that way.

So NATO/EU/the West in general will do everything they can up to the line of direct intervention to aid Ukraine.

I understand this policy; I don’t like how hard it is on the Ukrainians, but at least I grasp the logic.

Yeah, I don't buy this at all. Banking on the Russians overthrowing Putin by themselves is a stretch at best. It could happen, but I absolutely don't see NATO counting on this.

NATO is refraining from defending Ukraine because they are scared of nuclear war and because the Americans aren't really on board with entering into another war in general. I guarantee you that NATO would be totally on board if Joe Biden tomorrow said "let's kick out those damn russians". The rest of NATO is still too weak and too fragmented.

NATO isn’t refraining from defending Ukraine, they are refraining from putting their own troops in because that’s how we’ve figured out how to do things without causing a human extinction event.

Let Russia do whatever genocide they want bcuz Putin said some empty threats that he would be unironically overthrown by his generals for if he tried to act on them.

100 percent. What's happening in Kharkiv wouldn't be the case with NATO troops present on the ground. But neither would the devastation of the entire world, because not even Putin or his generals want it, and it's insane to think they would.

Did you guys miss the Cold War?

We aren’t talking about just stationing troops or making a diplomatic move, we are talking about declaring war on Russia. Do you guys not get how Putin threatening nukes because sanctions is an obvious bluff but Russia threatening nuclear retaliation if we start shooting at them is real?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

If you read carefully through this thread, you can determine why NATO hasn’t directly intervened.

Despite what some “Russia stronk Russian nukes WWIII” posters think, it’s not because NATO is afraid of Russia.

The goal is regime change in Russia, brought about by Putin’s own actions in Ukraine.

As long as NATO doesn’t directly intervene in Ukraine, Putin can’t use it as a rallying cry tO pRoTeCt MoThEr RuSsIa. Because sadly there absolutely are many Russians who would see it that way.

So NATO/EU/the West in general will do everything they can up to the line of direct intervention to aid Ukraine.

I understand this policy; I don’t like how hard it is on the Ukrainians, but at least I grasp the logic.

Yeah, I don't buy this at all. Banking on the Russians overthrowing Putin by themselves is a stretch at best. It could happen, but I absolutely don't see NATO counting on this.

NATO is refraining from defending Ukraine because they are scared of nuclear war and because the Americans aren't really on board with entering into another war in general. I guarantee you that NATO would be totally on board if Joe Biden tomorrow said "let's kick out those damn russians". The rest of NATO is still too weak and too fragmented.

NATO isn’t refraining from defending Ukraine, they are refraining from putting their own troops in because that’s how we’ve figured out how to do things without causing a human extinction event.

Let Russia do whatever genocide they want bcuz Putin said some empty threats that he would be unironically overthrown by his generals for if he tried to act on them.

100 percent. What's happening in Kharkiv wouldn't be the case with NATO troops present on the ground. But neither would the devastation of the entire world, because not even Putin or his generals want it, and it's insane to think they would.

Do I think Russia would use nukes is NATO troops got involved? No. They're playing a card in order to attempt to prevent NATO getting involved. I'd wager the reluctance to get involved is more due to public opinion at home. But certainly leaders are worried about how Russia would react to NATO intervention, and nukes are a part of that worry.

Again, you guys don’t seem to get that NATO troops involved means ‘US declares war in Russia’

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

What is likely to be the last update on the EU jets story: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/

The Ukranian army post claiming jets would arrive has been deleted, and Poland has finally confirmed (after some ambiguity from their President) that it’s not happening.

Presumably, the Ukranian transports parked on a Polish airfield are for carrying other supplies or for safekeeping during a conflict they’re not fit for. Perhaps they came anticipating jets that were never guaranteed.

Romania was requested to give jets and refused to comment; the others refused. However, Romania did return the errant Ukranian Su-27 today, and the only other craft they have that Ukrainians could fly is the Yak-52 trainer (which is likely to be less impactful than a purpose-built fighter/bomber) and the MiG-21 (which is increasingly obsolete - outside of testing during refurbishment for other countries’ fleets, Ukraine hasn’t flown many of these for a long time).

Turkey has not responded to Ukraine’s request for more Bayraktars. They had ordered lots more at the start of the invasion proper, but new ones had to be manufactured and faster delivery would require some depletion of Turkish army or training stocks.

No mention of SAMs, but I would expect they’re not getting any of those, either. Expect RuAF supremacy soon, and more unchallenged convoys.

Cowards

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Ugh, what an embarrassing climbdown. It looked like it was finally time to stand up to the West and challenge them but didn't even last a week. It pains me to admit it but the Americans pushed us around on this. Now this is something I need to cope over.

China ready to ‘play a role’ in Ukraine ceasefire

China signalled it was ready to play a role in finding a ceasefire in Ukraine as it “deplored” the outbreak of conflict in its strongest comments yet on the war.

Beijing said it was “extremely concerned about the harm to civilians” in comments that came after a phone call between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

“Ukraine is willing to strengthen communications with China and looks forward to China playing a role in realising a ceasefire,” the Chinese statement said on Tuesday.

It added that it respected “the territorial integrity of all countries”, without indicating whether Beijing accepted Russia’s claim to the Crimean peninsula or shared its recognition of separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

Needing to cope about this is mutually exclusive with insisting you don't have a dog in the actual fight, bootlicker.

I definitely have skin in the part of the game where China is involved. The people at the Foreign Ministry know more than me, they're the experts, so I defer to them, but damn it looks a lot like we took an L here and let the Americans push us around.

So OT, but what do nationalist sh**theads think ‘challenging the West’ is supposed to do? Oh wow you proved China Stronk and daddy Xi is biggest man ever. Other than a sense of racial superiority, what did that buy you?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Okay, this might be an unfortunate side effect in terms of cultural exchange and support for the Russian Anti War Movement, although perhaps this might free up fans time to go out to demonstrations instead

Green Day are cancelling their tour of Russia along with other artists.

(Excerpt from longer article. Click link below for full report)

"Green Day among musicians to cancel Russian tour dates over Ukraine invasion

By Sonia Rao2:55 p.m.

A growing number of musical acts have canceled their tour dates in Russia over the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

Green Day canceled an upcoming show in Moscow earlier this week, writing Sunday in an Instagram story, “We are aware that this moment is not about stadium rock shows, it’s much bigger than that. But we also know that rock and roll is forever and we feel confident there will be a time and a place for us to return in the future.”

The band was soon joined by Louis Tomlinson and the Killers, the latter of which pulled out of the Park Live festival set to be held in Moscow this summer, according to a representative. Tomlinson, known for performing as part of One Direction, tweeted Monday that his concerts in Moscow and Kyiv would be canceled “until further notice.”

“The safety of my fans is my priority,” the English singer wrote in a statement, “and my thoughts go out to the people of Ukraine and all those suffering from this needless war.”

....

"


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/01/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news/#link-VCPHMM2TGZHKJDR7XVEM3VYICU

Are we still even allowing business travel to Russia?
Why?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So, what do people think might be the endgame here? Ultimately it feels like, if the combatants remain only Russia (plus Belarus) and Ukraine, Russia is likely to win the conventional war eventually, even if it takes them months to occupy the whole country. On the other hand, in the last few days, the European powers (and the US, operating behind the scenes) seem to have committed themselves quite far towards a position where Russia cannot be allowed to win the conventional war. Right now, that doesn't mean direct intervention because the Russians aren't about to win, and clearly there are high hopes on the European side that the Ukrainians can ultimately repel the Russian forces without direct military intervention by the rest of Europe. But what happens if, as is more likely, the Ukrainians eventually start to crumble under the pressure? Given the implicit commitments by the UK, France, etc. to preventing Russia from winning, not to mention the strong pressure from Poland, Romania, the Baltics, etc. and popular sentiment in all of the above countries, it feels like a European intervention would have to happen at some point. I think we all hope it doesn't come to that, but isn't that starting to feel inevitable? Not now, and maybe not until May or so, but at some point?

The end game is a largely intact Ukrainian army acting as a resistance force with NATO weapons and unbombable bases in Poland while the Russian economy is in taters and can’t possibly support a long term occupation.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Looks like Russia's oil industry will take a massive hit regardless of any official Allied actions to target Russian Oil exports per Wall Street Journal article a little bit ago...

(Excerpt only from very long article--- you'll need to buy your own subscription or get a free trial to view in full).

"Russia Scrambles to Maintain Oil Sales, Lifeblood of Economy

Refiners balk at buying Russia’s oil and banks refuse to finance shipments of Russian commodities, fearing the impact of financial sanctions

By Joe Wallace , Benoit Faucon  and Anna Hirtenstein

Updated March 1, 2022 4:42 pm ET

In their broadside of sanctions on Russia, the U.S. and its allies are going out of their way to spare energy shipments and keep economies humming and voters warm.

The oil market went on strike anyway. Acting as if energy were in the crosshairs of Western sanctions officials, refiners balked at buying Russian oil and banks are refusing to finance shipments of Russian commodities, according to traders, oil executives and bankers.

The self-imposed embargo threatens to drive up energy prices globally by removing a gusher of oil from a market that was tight even before President Vladimir Putin attacked Ukraine. Russia, waging war and in need of revenue with its financial system in turmoil, is taking extreme steps to convince companies to buy its most precious commodity.

Before refiners and banks are certain they won’t fall afoul of complex restrictions in different jurisdictions, they won’t do business with Russian oil, traders and others involved in the market say. Market players also fear that measures that target oil exports directly could land as fighting in Ukraine intensifies.

“This is going to make it very complex to trade with Russia,” Sarah Hunt, a partner at law firm HFW who works with commodities traders, said of the sanctions laid out as of Monday. “These sanctions against Russia will have an incredible effect on global trade and on trade finance.”

...

Traders are offering Urals at massive discounts—as much as $18 a barrel below the price of Brent—and even then not finding buyers. A drop in the price of Espo, a grade of Russian crude popular in Asia, suggests refiners in Japan and South Korea are hitting pause on purchases alongside those in Europe and the U.S.

...

“The market is starting to fail,” said a person at a major commodities trading house.

Companies including Vitol and Trafigura Group Pte. Ltd.—among the world’s biggest independent oil traders—hold Russian oil bought under long-term deals. They were unable to sell Tuesday, people familiar with their operations say.

...."


https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-scrambles-to-maintain-oil-sales-life-blood-of-economy-11646156655?st=gm817y99ij3amxd&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Jesus just go full embargo already

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

40 Mile Convoy Update


So I posted earlier regarding some more detailed analysis of the composition of the vast "40 Mile Convoy" heading towards Kiev, and assuming that some of you have already read it (and don't want to have to reread that article), will simply post a link here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8504073#msg8504073

Now, we have The Guardian with a few additional data analytical points, which I don't believe anybody else has posted.

(Excerpt from link at bottom live feed)

Dead centre of the picture, circulated by the satellite company Maxar Technologies on Sunday, a small clearing is visible, and next to it, on the road heading south towards the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, a small proportion of a vast convoy of Russian military vehicles – estimated to be 40 miles long – accompanied by 15,000 troops.

In places, the military vehicles can be seen three abreast, almost blocking the road. Other images of the convoy seem to explain its belligerent purpose: fuel tankers and trucks carrying food, ammunition and soldiers.

Elsewhere, just visible are the shapes of towed and self-propelled artillery pieces, BMP3 armoured carriers and Russian main tanks. In places you can see the tracks of Russian vehicles that have gone off the road – perhaps to scout against attack from the flanks – visible in the fresh snow covering the fields.

....

And in some images released by Maxar on Monday, troops appeared to have arrived at where they would halt, deploying in camps outside the city, including in and around the town of Zdvyzhivka, to the north of Kyiv

....

On Tuesday the head of the convoy was reportedly passing near the heavily contested Hostomel airbase 17 miles north of Kyiv’s city centre. There are fears that the force in the convoy could be deployed against the nearby district of Obolonskyi, the adjacent village of Horenka, and the main roads running through Obolonskyi towards the city’s centre.

....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/vast-russian-military-convoy-kyiv-siege-ukraine


Your Humble Servant NOVA merely passing on the news.....

I’m getting exceptionally pissed than Ukraine wasn’t given buckets of drones and MLRS. We are sitting here watching the progress of the to be butchers of Kyiv and no one seems able to do a damn thing about it. A few Reapers would have cleaned the whole thing up.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498815833681891332

Bu... but Comrade Putin has said in Soviet Russia you don't need large banks and financial institutions.

The Western sanctions against Russia are stronger then even Germany in WW2. The allies did not sanction the German central bank.

They are weaker than the Cuban, Iranian and North Korean sanctions, both in the number of states on board with them and the extent of the sanctions enforced by the states that are on board with them. This was inevitable to some extent because Russia's economy is much bigger than those countries', but the relative lack of restrictions on energy - the backbone of the Russian economy - means they aren't going to dissuade Russia's leaders from their conquest.

We’ll look, you can’t expect the Germans to have some black outs in the name of a silly thing like…checks notes..peace in Europe.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Good analysis in this Twitter thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickForVA/status/1498702036363210754

Between analysis like this showing how Russian victory isn't a done deal, analysis showing how Russian victory is a done deal, analysis showing how it might take a month for Kiev to fall, the halting & logistical problems of the Kiev convoy, Belarus troops seemingly entering Ukraine + the destruction of Kharkiv & the Russian economy, I have no clue what to make of the trajectory of the conflict.

I think it is pretty clear that absent a coup in Moscow (or a stunning reversal by Putin), Russia will win conventionally in the short term. With that said, if the Ukrainian people's morale remains high and the entire country remains mobilized for an insurgency, then they will win they long run because Russia will not be able to afford hold the entire country.

While that's certainly possible, after what we've seen I don't think it's guaranteed. I'm not so naive as to believe the logistics of Putin's invasion are a complete disaster, but it seems plausible that they're insufficient to support what he's trying to do. In which case, the Russian invasion is going to run out of steam at some point. How soon that might happen, I have no idea. But if they reach insufficient levels of supply to keep advancing soon, while Russian economically falls apart, that will not be a win for Russia in any real sense.

Depends on what "winning" is. If that's taking the whole country, I agree that is questionable. But Russia could take Kiev and Kharkov, take Mariupol and encircle the Ukrainian forces facing Donetsk, and then call a ceasefire and negotiate from there. It's not a certainty but I think Russia is still more likely than not to succeed at this limited goal. In this hypothetical Russia will have taken Ukraine's largest city and capital, second largest city, most of their Black Sea coast, and neutralized their fortifications in the east, which is still quite a bit that could be given back to Ukraine in exchange for the neutrality guarantees they are looking for.

If that's even the reason why Putin started that war.

It’s blatantly not, but ole compy is working from Russian propaganda as read through Chinese state filters.