2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323958121463795714?s=20

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323959890637918208?s=20

[Asta]

As Badger suggested earlier, there's actually a pretty solid argument that the polls weren't wrong, just that Biden got his polling numbers within the MOE, but that undecided voters broke overwhelmingly for Trump. It makes sense given that this election was basically a referendum on Trump, and if after the last four years of every news bulletin starting with his latest ridiculousness someone wasn't decided against him they probably wouldn't be when they entered the voting booth.

Same thing, but less strongly, happened with the incumbents in 2012 and 2004.

There weren't that many undecideds. And polling error wasn't too bad in NC and GA.
It's consistently a Midwest thing. It was evident in 2016 and in some races in 2018 as well.

[Asta]

There seems to be a worrying amount of confusion with Arizona; some saying that because it's EV that was returned the day before or on election day it could skewer Trump but equally some people are saying that it's fine because the most of it is maricopa county.

After I've stopped worrying about Michigan can somone reassure me Arizona isn't going to f*** us from behind?

NV is likely Biden. I don't see Trump catching up with tons of votes remaining in Clark county.

PA is uncertain but Dave Wasserman and Nate Cohn both think Biden is on track to win there.

GA is pure tossup but Cohn said Biden is the favorite by smidgen after Atlanta votes get dumped there.

I don't know about AZ so we'll see.

If I was a betting man, I'd rather be putting my money on Biden than Trump.

[Asta]

PA update:

176K left in Allegheny
167K left in Philly
68k left in Bucks
62K left in Montco
59k left in Chester
29K left in Delco
20K in Lancaster
20K in Luzerne
13k in Berks

https://twitter.com/JoeHoldenCBS3/status/1324065334115110917

If Allegheny (81%) and Philly (93%) keep going as they've been going, that should net Biden nearly 300K alone.

These #s also appear to be fluid with late arriving ballots. Earlier, Montco was down to 54K but now it's up to 62K

Biden is down something like 460k in PA right now. 300k isn't going to cut it.

Not sure how Cohn and Wasserman got their numbers but we'll see.

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324075266981978125?s=20
MillennialModerate, this is for you.

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324085096111050755

Is it doable?

I'm inclined to believe Nate.

Have you run your own numbers to support this? Not that I don't trust Nate but it'd be more convincing with a second opinion.

[Asta]

Would be hilarious if Fox News became the first major network to declare Biden the winner of the election.

I wouldn't be surprised if FOX News privately disses Trump, and only grudgingly pretend to support him just to not lose Republican viewers.

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324112093545639941

Someone remind me, what was it at the start of the day? (Let's say this morning)

I don't know about the start of the day but the last time I saw it was about 11 point lead for Trump last night from my rough memory. By this morning, I would guesstimate he was leading by 8-9 point.

[Asta]

It's kind of funny that FOX Decision Desk is firmly standing by their call on AZ whereas NYT hasn't called it yet.

What special data could FOX have that NYT doesn't? Aren't they looking at the same data?

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324150879956721665?s=20

It seems like we may see PA clinch it for Biden tonight.

[Asta]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Just random comment, but is it just me or does Atlas have over-representation of blue avatars and conservatives that are soft Trump supporters or NeverTrump people?

RINO Tom, ExtremeRepublican, DTC etc. come to mind, (Sorry if I missed anyone) and I've seen handful of blue avatars with Biden Harris endorsements. Just kind of amazing.

[Asta]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Just random comment, but is it just me or does Atlas have over-representation of blue avatars and conservatives that are soft Trump supporters or NeverTrump people?

RINO Tom, ExtremeRepublican, DTC etc. come to mind, (Sorry if I missed anyone) and I've seen handful of blue avatars with Biden Harris endorsements. Just kind of amazing.

Roll Roons and Penn Quaker Girl are two others. But yes, they are definitely overrepresented on this forum, compared to the country at large. It's clear that the Lincoln Project failed in its objectives, and the Republican base-as we all knew-are firmly behind Trump. Trump apparently got 93% of the Republican vote in this election.

Without the project, Trump may have gotten 94-95%. Who knows? MI, WI, GA, NV and PA were all nail-biters. If it ended up convincing his supporter to vote for Jorgensen or Kanye, then that's all Biden really needed. I don't think it made much of a difference but it may have been enough to tip states like NV and GA.

[Asta]

Biden is down by 9,534 votes in GA with 98% reporting. Just saw on MSNBC.

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324491444992634881?s=20

[Asta]

Any Republican reactions to that mess other than Hogan and Santorum? Marco Rubio is trying his best to have it both ways, but that's all a quick search found for me.

Nah, Let's dispel once and for all with this fiction that Marco Rubio doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing.

[Asta]

Does anyone know if Biden is favored to prevail in Arizona?

[Asta]

L M A O

https://mobile.twitter.com/KathyBenjamin/status/1324737371628326912

Ben Shapiro should chime in and tell Rick that facts don't care about their feelings.

[Asta]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyleKulinski/status/1324735367610798081
lol

The left is not going to get far if it keep believing in the delusion that a majority of voters are closet progressives who are just waiting to cast their ballots for Bernie Sanders or AOC.

- 63% support for a 15 Dollar minimum wage 
- 66% support healthcare for all
- 63% support tuition free universities

Those are vague and it isn't the expansion of the welfare state that turns voters off, it's the anti-market stuff (bad for business, overregulation, killing industries) and the smash the system stuff (defund, abolish, etc) that's utterly toxic. Plus positively identifying as socialist.

The left is a minority faction of a party that represents just over one half of the country, with some of them having particularly huge demands.
No wonder they end up disappointed.

Speaking as someone who opposes $15 minimum wage, I'm the first one to concede that it is fairly popular. Even red-leaning FL just passed the minimum wage amendment, 61-39.

[Asta]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyleKulinski/status/1324735367610798081
lol

The left is not going to get far if it keep believing in the delusion that a majority of voters are closet progressives who are just waiting to cast their ballots for Bernie Sanders or AOC.

- 63% support for a 15 Dollar minimum wage  
- 66% support healthcare for all
- 63% support tuition free universities

Those are vague and it isn't the expansion of the welfare state that turns voters off, it's the anti-market stuff (bad for business, overregulation, killing industries) and the smash the system stuff (defund, abolish, etc) that's utterly toxic. Plus positively identifying as socialist.

The left is a minority faction of a party that represents just over one half of the country, with some of them having particularly huge demands.
No wonder they end up disappointed.

Speaking as someone who opposes $15 minimum wage, I'm the first one to concede that it is fairly popular. Even red-leaning FL just passed the minimum wage amendment, 61-39.

$15 still isn't precluded from not being a big lift even if it is popular. You have folks like Manchin and Sinema and a few other moderate-to-conservative Dems that won't vote for $15 but might strongly consider a lower number.

I know. Where I disagree is that progressive ideas aren't exactly as unpopular as you postulate. It just happens to be that progressivism is extremely concentrated in already blue states, making an inefficient map for the purpose of electing progressive senators.

Democrats don't have an "idea" problem. They have a land disadvantage problem because non-college whites, Republican base, are far more efficiently spread out across the map.

[Asta]

Kind of crazy how Trump did better with non-white voters than any Republican nominee since 1960 and still lost!

Shocking, really.  Trump of all people.  Very probably the most racist president in modern times.

People have talked about this and beaten it to death and hurled plenty of insults at those who explain why and give reasons that are not always 100% positive or don't seem rational (without actually refuting any points made), and the fact that this happens explains exactly why this is so hard for people to grasp. Many people just don't understand other communities or cultures, and have to see that understanding other communities and cultures is knowing the good and the bad, and understanding that seemingly irrational behavior to one person is completely normal to another. There are people I know from Mexico and Taiwan who say that there are some things they just don't understand about America/Americans because they make absolutely no sense, and when I reflect on these things, I definitely think they have a point.

In the end, people of color supporting someone as racist as Trump in larger numbers than before makes about as much sense as rural working class white voters supporting someone as far removed from the working class in rural areas as Trump. It seems irrational, and you can definitely argue that it is to an extent (or criticize the logic behind the decision), but it does pay to understand why people see things differently.

Please, educate us. NOT sarcastic here.

I can't speak for latinos or blacks, but i can contribute a bit as an Asian that most Asians, particularly older ones, are socially conservative. If exit polls are correct that Asians swing toward Trump, I'm not surprised by it because my anecdotal experience corresponds with it as well.

Many of us have first generation immigrant parents that would vote for the conservative party of our native country.

We have identified as non-privileged minorities and sided as Obama's coalition but strangely enough, I have begun to observe more than a few around me that, despite Trump's rhetorics, seem to sympathize, and even extol merits in his behaviors (media is untrustworthy, BLM is rude)

These are some of the things I have heard over the last 4 years. It's unfortunate that Trump will be written in history as racially depolarizing candidate but whether this happened because of him and not in spite of him is less conspicuous to me. I'm still of the belief that Kasich would have won OH by double digits and Midwest convincingly over Clinton and Biden. (Kasich had a positive net approval among blacks in 2016) In some sense, one can argue that electing Trump might have decelerated Democrats' collapse among non-whites.

[Asta]

Kind of crazy how Trump did better with non-white voters than any Republican nominee since 1960 and still lost!

Shocking, really.  Trump of all people.  Very probably the most racist president in modern times.

People have talked about this and beaten it to death and hurled plenty of insults at those who explain why and give reasons that are not always 100% positive or don't seem rational (without actually refuting any points made), and the fact that this happens explains exactly why this is so hard for people to grasp. Many people just don't understand other communities or cultures, and have to see that understanding other communities and cultures is knowing the good and the bad, and understanding that seemingly irrational behavior to one person is completely normal to another. There are people I know from Mexico and Taiwan who say that there are some things they just don't understand about America/Americans because they make absolutely no sense, and when I reflect on these things, I definitely think they have a point.

In the end, people of color supporting someone as racist as Trump in larger numbers than before makes about as much sense as rural working class white voters supporting someone as far removed from the working class in rural areas as Trump. It seems irrational, and you can definitely argue that it is to an extent (or criticize the logic behind the decision), but it does pay to understand why people see things differently.

Please, educate us. NOT sarcastic here.

I can't speak for latinos or blacks, but i can contribute a bit as an Asian that most Asians, particularly older ones, are socially conservative. If exit polls are correct that Asians swing toward Trump, I'm not surprised by it because my anecdotal experience corresponds with it as well.

Many of us have first generation immigrant parents that would vote for the conservative party of our native country.

We have identified as non-privileged minorities and sided as Obama's coalition but strangely enough, I have begun to observe more than a few around me that, despite Trump's rhetorics, seem to sympathize, and even extol merits in his behaviors (media is untrustworthy, BLM is rude)

These are some of the things I have heard over the last 4 years. It's unfortunate that Trump will be written in history as racially depolarizing candidate but whether this happened because of him and not in spite of him is less conspicuous to me. I'm still of the belief that Kasich would have won OH by double digits and Midwest convincingly over Clinton and Biden. (Kasich had a positive net approval among blacks in 2016) In some sense, one can argue that electing Trump might have decelerated Democrats' collapse among non-whites.

Adding on to this with Latinos and Hispanics, if I can, with the exception of Cubans, who can never be grouped in the rest, you have to remember a few things. First is that most Latinos are very socially conservative, they're mainly catholic, so that plays a lot, they can be swayed. Another thing is the whole "Latinx" crowd, for politically active Latinos, even democrats if they're not young SJW's, I've found that it very much pisses them off, I've also seen many feel, especially in rural areas, used by Democrats that they've voted for for decades, look in TX-23 in those rural Latino areas.

Many blacks are socially conservative as well. I speculate that 2024 GOP candidate will do even better with blacks and Hispanics.

I don't think I can say this without sounding racially insensitive but I will say it anyway. Democrats need to hit reasonable floor with white voters. I'm glad that Biden was the nominee over Sanders even if I didn't like his foreign policy. Bernie would have done better with Hispanics but would have done horribly with whites, especially moderate ones in AZ, GA, FL and TX.

Even before the outcome, I knew Biden would be a far better shot at AZ and GA. I am saying this as someone who supported Sanders in 2016.

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/apnovoa/status/1324800460335755265
This is disturbing and I think the man needs help but I had to laugh.

Democrats wanting to raise a bit more tax (only on income of 400k+), especially when we are one of the lowest tax paying countries, is communism!

[Asta]

Might be a hot take but I think the fact that white men are swinging against Trump so hard it basically will decide the election is the best evidence yet that sexism sunk Hillary above all.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/7/13/1870970/-It-s-not-just-Republicans-Hostile-sexism-is-skewing-the-Democratic-primary

"among the most sexist Democratic primary voters, Biden is preferred by as much as a four-to-one margin"

"[Kamala] Harris’s support drops from around 15 percent among the least sexist voters to less than 5 percent among those who are most sexist.”"

I have nothing against Warren or Harris, but if even Democrats are this sexist, I'm pessimistic about the prospect of having a female president anytime soon.

[Asta]

Going to sleep now. Thank you to everyone especially those living in swing states that saved the republic by voting for Biden.

Special thanks to GA voters like GeorgiaModerate, Hammy, Horus, GWB etc. that voted for Biden (holler at me if I missed anyone). I never thought blue GA would be possible. Your votes really made a difference.