PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'd say it's time to rename the thread?

Suggestions: "Mr. Braddock vs. the New Jersey Doctor"; "The 51st vote?"

"We're Off to See the Wizard"

"Wizard vs. Ogre"

"Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz"

This is my favorite so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1552779883868295168

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone know which third parties/independents got/will get ballot access?

Ballotpedia says:

John Fetterman (D)
Mehmet Oz (R)
Ronald Johnson (Constitution Party)
Erik Chase Gerhardt (L)
Quincy Magee (Independent)
Everett Stern (Independent)

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2022

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1553077650176065538?s=20&t=akUCwfD...

Indeed, but Oz losing makes the path to a solid GOP majority much harder. 

If PA flips R-->D, the GOP must win two of AZ/GA/NV to take control of the Senate (we'll discount less likely flips such as NH or CO).  And even then, it'd still be the narrowest of majorities. 

Of course, it's not at all inconceivable that the GOP holds PA and flips AZ/GA/NV to take a more commanding 52-48 majority.  But Oz is a pretty integral part of the GOP Senate machine. 

I have actually had PA as seat number 53 for the GOP for quite some time with this being my ranking:

49: WI
50: NV
51: AZ
52: GA
53: PA


Given it is an open race I dont think the fact the GOP currently holds this seat really means much. Now I think Republicans have the best chance in NV out of these 4 as they actually have a strong candidate in NV, its a state that is trending R , and the Reid Machine was toppled so due to this I think the GOP has the best chance in NV.

So that leaves AZ/GA/PA where Republicans have/likely to nominate flawed candidates so the reason why I think PA is the hardest out of those 3 is:

1. It voted for Biden by the largest margin

2. PA is a state where Republicans rely on low propensity voters turnout more than they do in AZ/GA which are states where Democrats rely on low propensity voters to turnout.

I think you counting is off, shouldn’t WI be 50 and PA be 54?

No, he's right (and I agree with his ordering).  The Republicans have 50 now, but that includes WI and PA.  So if they flipped AZ/GA/NV they would have 53.

[GeorgiaModerate]

TBF, there is actually some truth to his comment about happiness, although he expressed it poorly.  There's an economic concept called "the utility of money" -- see https://tciwealth.com/blog/the-utility-of-money-and-the-concept-of-enough/ for a good explanation.  The basic idea is that the more money you have, the less important to your well-being it is to get $X more.  Or to look at it in the other direction: the less you have, the more harmful it is to lose $X.  For example, suppose you have an unexpected car repair that costs $5K.  If you're struggling to get by, that's a disaster.  If you're doing OK, it's an annoyance.  If you're rich, it's nothing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oz reminds me of how some local Georgia sources have described David Perdue: a successful rich guy who got into politics out of boredom, but wasn't really cut out for it.  In Perdue's case, he was fortunate enough to run in a Republican wave so he won his first race, but his subsequent campaigns showed that he actually isn't a very good politician.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1558224045509861376

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fetterman isn't winning by 20 he will win by 6.5 and Casey will win by 6.5 but it's won't be that close

We would have lost if McCormick was nominated he was averaging plus 5 over Fetterman

I have John Fetterman winning 49-47, though my prediction may change either in John Fetterman favor or to Dr. Oz’s favor as the election gets closer.

*faints*

[GeorgiaModerate]

Again, one of the more underrated possible attacks against Oz that Fetterman & co. don't seem to really be focusing on right now is that a DOCTOR continues to mock Fetterman for his stroke recovery.

Here, he implies that Fetterman "avoided the campaign trail for 90+ days" (which isn't true), but the implication here is that Fetterman should... not have recovered from his stroke? This is quite possibly the most egregious "attack" yet from Oz, especially considering he's a medical professional

The way he's mocked someones stroke recovery has been disgusting to say the least

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1558585186547372039

"...and you call yourself a doctor?"

[GeorgiaModerate]

what the 's a crudite

Clearly, someone who believes in crud.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Given Fetterman's clear health issues, I kind of wish we had nominated Lamb or Kenyatta.

Either of them would also be destroying Oz, and we wouldn't be running the risk of an incumbent dying halfway through a term and a Governor Mastriano appointing his replacement.

If Fetterman wins, Mastriano ain't winning.  The two outcomes are not independent.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Given Fetterman's clear health issues, I kind of wish we had nominated Lamb or Kenyatta.

Either of them would also be destroying Oz, and we wouldn't be running the risk of an incumbent dying halfway through a term and a Governor Mastriano appointing his replacement.

If Fetterman wins, Mastriano ain't winning.  The two outcomes are not independent.

I'll disagree with you, if only because Mastriano is running a competent campaign and Oz isn't even trying to run a competent campaign. Based on that alone, I could see a split decision in Pennsylvania.

He just said at a rally he wants to turn PA into 'Northern Florida'.

Some people call the western part of the Panhandle 'Lower Alabama'.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Given Fetterman's clear health issues, I kind of wish we had nominated Lamb or Kenyatta.

Either of them would also be destroying Oz, and we wouldn't be running the risk of an incumbent dying halfway through a term and a Governor Mastriano appointing his replacement.

If Fetterman wins, Mastriano ain't winning.  The two outcomes are not independent.

I'll disagree with you, if only because Mastriano is running a competent campaign and Oz isn't even trying to run a competent campaign. Based on that alone, I could see a split decision in Pennsylvania.

He just said at a rally he wants to turn PA into 'Northern Florida'.

If that’s all he wanted to do I’d easily support him as Florida is one of the best states in the country

It looks better from your distance.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1559902444427120640

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the new POS (R) poll, 538 now gives Fetterman a 68 in 100 chance of winning. That's slightly more than Ron Johnson, who has a 67 in 100 chance. LOL

From what I can tell, it looks like they haven't added it yet? Unless mine is just not refreshing fast enough

Yup, true. I thought they did because there wasn't another PA poll the last few days and Fetterman was at 65 in 100 not too long ago.

The overall Senate odds for the D's have been creeping up lately, probably due to their improvement in the GCB, which will influence the individual races as well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1560081996797427712

[GeorgiaModerate]

He's not Christian.

I can see this, as well as his dual citizenship, causing lowered enthusiasm for him among Republicans. 

On another note, here's an amusing (but maybe correct!) observation:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1560423166777901058

[GeorgiaModerate]

This won't move the needle at all. Oz narrowly wins in the end.

So you think the polls will be off by double digits?  Fetterman has an 11.4% lead in 538's polling average.

BTW, why are you even here?  You posted this regarding Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson's confirmation:

If Collins votes to confirm, I will leave the forum for a year.

Ahem:

The Senate voted to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court on Thursday, making her the first Black woman to serve as a justice on the nation's highest court.

The final vote was 53-47, with three Republicans — Susan Collins of Maine, Mitt Romney of Utah and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — joining all 50 Democrats in backing her nomination.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senators-support-oppose-ketanji-brown-jackson-supreme-court-nomination/

[GeorgiaModerate]

If either Fetterman or Shapiro win, I will leave this forum forever.

Haven't you said this before? Like about Warnock/Ossoff or something? Maybe multiple times?

Do you promise to ACTUALLY do it this time?

That was Woodbury. I made this promise with Hassan, whose fate will be determined this November. Regardless, unlike Woodbury, I intend to keep my promise, simply because I think this forum would rather I were gone.

Actually, you quoted him for agreement:

I am saying it right now: If either Ossoff or Warnock wins, I'll leave the forum for 1 solid year.

So that's two years you owe us, plus forever if either Fetterman or Shapiro wins.  And believe me, you will not be allowed to forget it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Am I the *only* one who doesn’t think what Oz said was that bad? It’s not the best joke but honestly, not that terrible all things considered and almost funny.

It’s like when the socially awkward person tells a joke at someone else’s expense which is not funny and makes everyone feel uncomfortable and bad for the butt of the joke. I’m guessing a number of us have been the perpetrator of this in real life.

Ah I am that person. Maybe that’s why I find it not so bad.

Pro tip: don't run for Senate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1562478315725762567

If it quacks like a duck...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fair warning: don't start a Ukraine debate in this thread.  It's off-topic and the posts will be deleted.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SpiroAgnewGhost/status/1564056338983841792

[GeorgiaModerate]

Big news here, Fetterman will NOT attend the first senate debate
https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1564734464353345544?s=20&t=a348MBD0oWYH4P6pn...

Can someone call me “a liar, a liberal, and a coward” so I can put it in my signature? What an epithet.

No you lying liberal coward!

I thought he was just a cowardly lying liberal.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Except he stands for nothing lol

Well, he probably stands for the National Anthem.