COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1248315818854748160

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jacobbogage/status/1248323451196248071

[GeorgiaModerate]

What seems likely is that we will pull back some stay-at-home measures by around the end of April, as deaths seem to peak and political pressure mounts. Within a few weeks, new hot spots will emerge. What then?

No new hot spots will emerge then.

You are amazingly overconfident.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Excessive corona panic is more dangerous than coronavirus itself.

How many people have been killed by "corona panic"?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1248365705503932420

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1248365705503932420

Not an indictment on you, GM, but I'm just a little confused on where Cate is getting "hundreds" from -- maybe he's referring to confirmed cases?

According to the CDC's provisional breakdown, there has been five COVID-deaths in the U.S. in people aged twenty-five and under.  

I suspect that you're correct, and that he's conflating the number of deaths in people under 25 (small, but nonzero) with the number of confirmed cases (considerably larger).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking at it a little further, I suspect that Cate may have gotten his "hundreds of deaths" from this WP article: Hundreds of young Americans have now been killed by the coronavirus, data shows.  It finds "at least 759 people under age 50" have died as of April 8, breaking it down to "at least 45 deaths among people in their 20s, at least 190 deaths among people in their 30s, and at least 413 deaths among people in their 40s."  Under 25 is a much lower cutoff, obviously.  Also interestingly, the WP finds at least 9 deaths under age 20, in contrast to the CDC's 5.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking at it a little further, I suspect that Cate may have gotten his "hundreds of deaths" from this WP article: Hundreds of young Americans have now been killed by the coronavirus, data shows.  It finds "at least 759 people under age 50" have died as of April 8, breaking it down to "at least 45 deaths among people in their 20s, at least 190 deaths among people in their 30s, and at least 413 deaths among people in their 40s."  Under 25 is a much lower cutoff, obviously.  Also interestingly, the WP finds at least 9 deaths under age 20, in contrast to the CDC's 5.

The real question is the motive behind posting these tweets:

(a) for the scientific betterment of this thread; or
(b) support a pre-disposed political bias.

What were you hoping to achieve with these tweets, regardless of their now proven 'fake news' status?

It would be more useful for the thread if we did not have an echo chamber of anti-Trump bias tainting the credibility of the data presented.

Otherwise we just end up with 150,000 posts on this forum of people crying like a bleeting sheep, and no quality discussion surrounding the science behind the virus can grow.

I posted it as an example of Ron DeSantis downplaying the seriousness of the virus, something he has done consistently, and which is a bad thing for the governor of a state that has been affected as much as Florida is.  This is relevant to discussion of government response to the crisis (state government in this case), something we have been discussing throughout these threads in addition to the scientific aspects.

But I'd like to ask you a counter question: why did you mention "anti-Trump bias" when asking me about this?  Nowhere did I mention Trump in the post, and neither did the tweet.  If you're concerned about knee-jerk responses in the thread, perhaps you should start with your own.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A short article that makes the case that easing restrictions won't automatically restart the economy, because people won't start going out again until they feel safe in doing so:

...the essential variable in “flattening the curve” isn’t central planning but behavior change. Many businesses closed down well before they were ordered to. Millions of people practiced social distancing and refused to get on planes not because they were commanded to, but because they were convinced this was a wise course of action for themselves and their loved ones.
...
Information doesn’t just come from governments. The death tolls in Italy and New York probably did more to change behavior on the ground than all of Trump’s press conferences or Dr. Anthony Fauci’s TV appearances.

And this raises another complication for those who think the government can just “re-open” the economy with the flick of a switch. Trump and all of the governors could lift the stay-at-home orders and federal advisories tomorrow. That wouldn’t necessarily fill the restaurants, airplanes or stadiums. People would still need to be convinced it’s safe. Such persuasion comes via clear, believable information, not orders from on high.

https://thedispatch.com/p/central-planning-hasnt-flattened

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is bad:

https://twitter.com/strickdc/status/1248703742708461571

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kellyswails/status/1248606674195230720

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AGHamilton29/status/1248737943130451971

[GeorgiaModerate]

OMFG! The guy is an absolute retard.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1248699275355328512

I can just picture some of the FNC talking heads now: "Why don't we TRY antibiotics against a virus?  How do we KNOW they don't work?  What do we have to lose?"

[GeorgiaModerate]

Italy has extended its nationwide lockdown until May 3.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1249356635996409856

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/EricLiptonNYT/status/1249012275681337345

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPE with style: I saw someone grocery shopping wearing a full-body Easter Bunny suit.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1248664536078483462

[GeorgiaModerate]

Meat processing plants are the new hot spots

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

The one is Sioux Falls employs 3700 people and the number of positive cases was up to almost 300 at last count.

"The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply," the meat processor's chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, said in a statement Sunday.
"It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running," he said. "These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain."

Load up on the bacon boys.

Lettem get it. The workers are young anyways. The meat industry can't just halt.

Perhaps you should go get a job in one.  IIRC you're a young person.

[GeorgiaModerate]

John Horton Conway, a pioneer of mathematics and game theory, died of COVID-19 yesterday, three days after falling ill.  Anyone familiar with his work will know what a tremendous loss this is.  If you would like to know more about him, his Wikipedia entry is here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For a nice, easily understandable presentation of the difficulties in modeling COVID-19, check this out from 538:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling/

[GeorgiaModerate]

People can will themselves into the next century just to say they lived in two. I look forward to say three at the ripe young age of 106.

I don't think I'm gonna make it...I'd be pushing 150.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This BBC report on increased restrictions in Moscow is worth watching all the way through (about 3 minutes):

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1249585589239906304

[GeorgiaModerate]

THREAD: This is the true human cost of #COVID that you don't see on TV very often. CNN obtained photos from ER staff at a Detroit hospital, showing bodies pilled up in vacant spaces because the morgue was full. Nearly 1,500 people have died in Michigan, and 23,000 nationwide.

https://twitter.com/MarshallCohen/status/1249753457046835200

I have linked to the tweet rather than embedding it because it contains images that some people may find disturbing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I never watch Trump's lie-rallies. What's making this one special?

I'm not watching it either, but from the general reaction on Twitter it sounds like Trump has gone into full raving lunatic mode.