State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1696729555183026565
Not a legislative special but an interesting local special. 2020 election denial don't play even in a red county. Warren County IA.

Came here to post that but you beat me to it.  The linked article is worth a read.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Indiana State Senator Chip Perfect (R-Lawrenceburg) is resigning effective September 26, but in Indiana such vacancies are filled by the party committee rather than by special election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1703920432091402263

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1704261891957145698

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reminder: the Minnesota Legislative District 52B special election is tonight.  Results will be here after polls close at 8pm CST.  The seat is Safe DFL.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1734313618555244994

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oklahoma results tonight: https://results.okelections.us/OKER/?elecDate=20231212

[GeorgiaModerate]

5 of 23 precincts reporting:

Candidate Choice   Absentee Mail   Early Voting   Election Day   Total Votes   
Percent

DUSTY DEEVERS (REP)   111   137   257   505   
46.12%

LARRY BUSH (DEM)   118   172   300   590   
53.88%

Total   229   309   557   1,095

[GeorgiaModerate]

10 of 23 precincts reporting:

Candidate Choice Absentee Mail Early Voting Election Day Total Votes
Percent

DUSTY DEEVERS (REP) 111 137 791 1,039
48.42%

LARRY BUSH (DEM) 118 172 817 1,107
51.58%

Total 229 309 1,608 2,146

[GeorgiaModerate]

Deevers takes the lead with 15 of 23 precincts reporting:

Candidate Choice   Absentee Mail   Early Voting   Election Day   Total Votes   
Percent

DUSTY DEEVERS (REP)   111   137   1,574   1,822   
50.85%

LARRY BUSH (DEM)   118   172   1,471   1,761   
49.15%

Total   229   309   3,045   3,583

[GeorgiaModerate]

Deevers now up 55-45 with 19/23 precincts reporting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Finished at R +10.96, a 9 point underperformance of Trump 2020 and 26 point underperformance of 2022. Candidate wanted to ban all abortion and porn.

He also wants to ban no-fault divorce, according to what I've seen on Twitter.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Finished at R +10.96, a 9 point underperformance of Trump 2020 and 26 point underperformance of 2022. Candidate wanted to ban all abortion and porn.

He also wants to ban no-fault divorce, according to what I've seen on Twitter.

This is actually probably the least controversial of the three.

I suspect that it would be the most unpopular policy of the three, although I’d like to see some surveys on it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

Not impossible to see D+20, given what happened in Oklahoma on the same night.  One conclusion is as valid as the other.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

Based off of… one special election?

And completely ignoring the other one on the same night.  But he sees through (R)ose-colored glasses.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1737536151773487134

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1742607592596066561

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1742607592596066561

Trump +25 district.

Atlanta suburbs or elsewhere?

Columbia County is suburban Augusta, but the district seems to be on the fringes, so kind of a  mix of Augusta suburbs with exurbs and some rural areas (it also stretches outside the county.)

I believe Spectator has mentioned he's from Columbia County.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1744888273145622724

[GeorgiaModerate]

From DDHQ:

Tom Keen   DEM   11,376   
51.3%

Erika Booth   GOP   10,778   
48.7%

>99% est. reporting

[GeorgiaModerate]

How much did Biden win it by? The Democrat won this by 3. So if Biden did well here, it could be bad for Democrats, but if it was really close, this actually is good. Crazy thing is I considered moving to this district once. There is a nice little community/lifestyle center called Avalon Park there.

Biden won by 4.9%, D last night won by 2.6%, so a 2% underperformance. But honestly given the spending disparity, DeSantis winning it by double digits in 2022, and how allegedly 'unpopular' Biden/Ds are nationwide, that number in a vacuum is pretty damn good imo.

That would still map to a Democrat +2% environment, which could keep things really close in the House and Presidency. Especially if Trump isn't as efficient this time.

538 has the partisan lean of the seat as D+1, so yes this would be a 2% overperformance.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Special election incoming in Georgia HD-139:

Georgia Rep. Richard Smith, who led the powerful House Rules Committee that set the agenda for votes in the state House, has died suddenly at age 78 after fighting the flu.

Smith, a Republican from Columbus, was known for his steady leadership as a close ally to both current House Speaker Jon Burns and his predecessor, House Speaker David Ralston.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-rep-richard-smith-chairman-of-house-rules-committee-dies/KNNTEZ5ZZVBNFGFSWHJGFHTKKA/

And a weird bit:

Three Rules chairman have died in office in recent years: Smith, state Rep. Jay Powell in 2019, and state Rep. John Meadows in 2018.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ChiCyph80/status/1757449522643382281

[GeorgiaModerate]

Early vote has Republican Timothy J. Bearden ahead in GA SD-30 by >50%, with a Dem in second place.

HD-125 is currently looking at a R v R runoff between Gary Richardson with over 40% of the vote and CJ Pearson with 28%.

FWIW, the state GOP leadership has been working hard against Pearson.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MichaelLangeNYC/status/1757604206817534026?t=9Rq1Y3R3j-tQ-Mc...
Also in NY, the Bronx vote has stalled at 1.4k total votes with some precincts not in. Looking like a Dem underperformance - but still a overall landslide - seemingly cause of this hyperfixation by the Republican on one neighborhood block.

This takes “all politics is local” to a new level.