State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1686544753406492672

I don't think this guy can win a closely divided district like this.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's New Hampshire, a Qanon backing republican won a Biden Senate district.

[Oryxslayer]

One would expect the expelled members to be returned with expanded margins of support, right?

Well what about a no-name Dem overperforming by 14 points in a uber-red truly rural east Tennessee seat? Well the previous incumbent did resign in scandal so there is that I guess.

[wbrocks67]

Double digit overperformances from Biden in 2020: +13 and +14.

[Brittain33]

Any explanation for the difference in turnout between Nashville and the other two? I can guess, but curious if anyone knows details.

[NewYorkExpress]

There will be a special election in SC-SD 19, following the death of John Scott.

State Sen. John Scott, a longtime South Carolina lawmaker who served for more than three decades, died Sunday after a stint in the hospital, according to Democrats across the state. He was 69.

Scott had been at the Medical University of South Carolina in Charleston, since Friday, when he was hospitalized for an undisclosed medical issue, according to Senate officials.

[Mr. Matt]

Not a resignation, but a special convention will be needed in NJ- Dick Codey (aka the Governor after McGreevey) is retiring after 50 years in the legislature, this after defeating another incumbent in the June primary.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2023/08/ex-gov-codey-will-not-seek-re-election-to-nj-senate-ending-50-year-tenure.html
https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/codey-will-retire-drops-bid-for-re-election-to-n-j-senate/

[Nyvin]

The progressive is in first as of now for the top two primary in San Diego's district 4 election for county supervisor

https://www.livevoterturnout.com/ENR/sandiegocaenr/17/en/Index_17.html

[Kevinstat]

Bath Rep. Sean Paulhus resigns to take register of probate appointment

The special election hasn't been called yet (the Maine Constitution requires an "immediate election" to fill State Senate vacancies but merely says that State House vacancies "may be filled by a new election", and Maine statute requires municipal officers (Board of Selectmen, City Council, etc.) in an affected municipality (so, the Bath City Council in this case, since the district is simply the City of Bath) to notify the Governor of the need to fill the vacancy), but will almost certainly be held on November 7.

Pretty safe D seat nowadays.  The guy who resigned himself won a special election in 2019, 975 votes (66.5%) to 491 (33.5%).  (Maine State Representatives only represent 9,022 people on average based on 2020 census figures, and when you couple that with an irregular election (I'm not sure if there was anything on the Bath municipal ballot) you can get low figures like these.)

Special election set to fill House District 50 seat

Committee nominating paperwork (for party candidates) / nominating petitions with at least 50 valid signatures (for non-party candidates) due: 5:00 p.m. on Friday, September 1, 2023

Write-in candidate declaration deadline: 5:00 p.m. on Wednesday, September 6, 2023 (I've never seen a write-in candidate declare for a special election in the period when there have been such deadlines; until 2007 the deadline for a write-in candidate to declare was either non-existent (pre-1999) or was 3 days after the election; when you're only dealing with 1/151 of the state (population-wise as of the last census and so, very roughly, voter-wise), your chances of getting an eccentric individual to declare as a write-in diminish).

Election date: Tuesday, November 7, 2023

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1694138207116390666?t=OzJfq38DttjrbVw7Y...

NH special election,  for a very blue seat. The special which could tie/flip the chamber, depending on how one tabulates the Independents, is next month.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1694138207116390666?t=OzJfq38DttjrbVw7Y...

NH special election,  for a very blue seat. The special which could tie/flip the chamber, depending on how on tabulates the Independents, is next month.

But I read that Democrats are PANICKED in Virginia and that Republicans will easily win the trifecta.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1694138207116390666?t=OzJfq38DttjrbVw7Y...
NH special election,  for a very blue seat. The special which could tie/flip the chamber, depending on how on tabulates the Independents, is next month.

But I read that Democrats are PANICKED in Virginia and that Republicans will easily win the trifecta.

I don't think either party gets a trifecta in Virginia. I think both Houses filp, and Democrats pick up the Governor's Mansion in 2025.

[dspNY]

Democrats now outperforming 2020 by 7.7% and 2016 by 12.4% when all special elections are averaged. I really think the pollsters are missing a LOT of Dem-leaning voters

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ajyphWQru9TgDDiBe8kvEmApBEXND2wl9MVaxi1dndk/edit#gid=0

[Kevinstat]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1694138207116390666?t=OzJfq38DttjrbVw7Y...

NH special election,  for a very blue seat. The special which could tie/flip the chamber, depending on how one tabulates the Independents, is next month.

That ME HD45 special election with the 2.5% D "overperformance" from the 2020 Presidential election was actually an R flip from 2022.  Of course, the D who resigned did so pretty much in disgrace, after falsifications in getting public "Clean Election" funding (without which the Republican nominee would likely have won this seat in 2022) were exposed (although ultimately the falsifications weren't as bad as had been thought and the felony charges were dropped; and yes, I know how plea deals work and it doesn't necessarily mean the guy didn't do the worse stuff but in this case the judge noted how the case was different from other violations of the Maine Clean Election Act that had resulted in heavier sentences).

[Progressive Pessimist]

Democrats now outperforming 2020 by 7.7% and 2016 by 12.4% when all special elections are averaged. I really think the pollsters are missing a LOT of Dem-leaning voters

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ajyphWQru9TgDDiBe8kvEmApBEXND2wl9MVaxi1dndk/edit#gid=0

Special elections shouldn't be extrapolated too much for upcoming regular elections, BUT they have been a pretty consistent indicator of the national environment. The 2022 midterms demonstrated this to great effect.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Democrats now outperforming 2020 by 7.7% and 2016 by 12.4% when all special elections are averaged. I really think the pollsters are missing a LOT of Dem-leaning voters

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ajyphWQru9TgDDiBe8kvEmApBEXND2wl9MVaxi1dndk/edit#gid=0

Special elections shouldn't be extrapolated too much for upcoming regular elections, BUT they have been a pretty consistent indicator of the national environment. The 2022 midterms demonstrated this to great effect.

House Democrats underperformed Biden by 7.3% in the 2022 midterms.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Democrats now outperforming 2020 by 7.7% and 2016 by 12.4% when all special elections are averaged. I really think the pollsters are missing a LOT of Dem-leaning voters

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ajyphWQru9TgDDiBe8kvEmApBEXND2wl9MVaxi1dndk/edit#gid=0

Special elections shouldn't be extrapolated too much for upcoming regular elections, BUT they have been a pretty consistent indicator of the national environment. The 2022 midterms demonstrated this to great effect.

House Democrats underperformed Biden by 7.3% in the 2022 midterms.

And yet Republicans only net nine seats in a year that was less Republican than it should have been. That's the point I'm making from the previous post. The special elections from the summer largely weren't Democratic wins but suggested that in the year's environment, something was happening not reflective of a GOP wave.

I would also say that special elections suggested the same thing in 2020, particularly the CA-27 special, to what ended up as Republicans' benefit

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1696729555183026565

Not a legislative special but an interesting local special. 2020 election denial don't play even in a red county. Warren County IA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1696729555183026565
Not a legislative special but an interesting local special. 2020 election denial don't play even in a red county. Warren County IA.

Came here to post that but you beat me to it.  The linked article is worth a read.

[wbrocks67]

Also seems likely that if Virginia dems wouldve actually fielded a candidate in their special last night, it would've been a pretty big overperformance too.

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1696687817613529164

[Duke of York]

Also seems likely that if Virginia dems wouldve actually fielded a candidate in their special last night, it would've been a pretty big overperformance too.

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1696687817613529164

why didn't they field a candidate here?

[Landslide Lyndon]

why didn't they field a candidate here?

Nobody wanted to play the role of sacrificial lamb?

[Duke of York]

why didn't they field a candidate here?

Nobody wanted to play the role of sacrificial lamb?

no general or special election election should be unopposed. Get a random person to run in a district as red as this. have it be a high school senior for all I care.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Indiana State Senator Chip Perfect (R-Lawrenceburg) is resigning effective September 26, but in Indiana such vacancies are filled by the party committee rather than by special election.

[NewYorkExpress]

There could be a special election upcoming in AL HD-10, following David Cole's indictment for voter fraud.

Cole only won here 51.6-45 last year, so this could be a possible Democratic gain, either in a special election or in 2024 when the seat is normally up.