State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 134264 times)
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« Reply #1350 on: December 21, 2023, 10:26:33 PM »


Something seems up since the restart of student loan payments and Israel-Gaza in October.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1351 on: December 22, 2023, 01:14:00 PM »
Quote from: Free markets, peace, prosperity on December 21, 2023, 10:26:33 PM


Something seems up since the restart of student loan payments and Israel-Gaza in October.

Those things may not be helping Democrats, but I think it's hard to discern what impact they have in down-ballot races entirely.
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Birdish
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« Reply #1352 on: December 22, 2023, 01:45:24 PM »
Those swings seem extremely random with no discernable pattern. Also, having a special election 4 days before Christmas on a random Thursday seems like a recipe for nonexistent turnout.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1353 on: December 22, 2023, 02:36:22 PM »
Special elections only count when there is a D overperformance.
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jvmh2009
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« Reply #1354 on: December 27, 2023, 02:45:00 PM »
Okay. I married ethan chens and Nathan rakichs sheets to analyze by year,month,state,etc for each year starting with 2017. Check out the link below. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yjP5MyzWY0KITB1YWyZmCQ8T_-geDfVx7Z4aHq93PwQ/edit?usp=drivesdk

Other than 2017/2018 dems do worse in november,december,and january than the other months.  What's really interesting is looking at the year average and the popular margin for each year.... it's eerily accurate. We will see how 2024 special elections go, but if they stay somewhat similar next year.... may be looking at a blowout. Or the whole special election analysis is astrology for election nerds... which is the theory I lean towards.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #1355 on: January 02, 2024, 09:15:10 PM »

15 point over performance by a democrat in a heavily black district, more evidence of blexit.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
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« Reply #1356 on: January 02, 2024, 09:34:51 PM »
Quote from: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on January 02, 2024, 09:15:10 PM

15 point over performance by a democrat in a heavily black district, more evidence of blexit.
Majority black district in South Carolina for reference.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1357 on: January 03, 2024, 10:53:52 AM »
Interesting that Dems continue to do well in these majority black specials. But I was told Dems would continue to implode with black voters...
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1358 on: January 03, 2024, 10:57:58 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on January 03, 2024, 10:53:52 AM
Interesting that Dems continue to do well in these majority black specials. But I was told Dems would continue to implode with black voters...

and i was told there had been shift in special elections showing a worsening environment for Democrats yet this seems to indicate what happened in Minnesota and Delaware were outliers. Fun fact Tamika Devine ran for mayor of Columbia in 2022.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1359 on: January 03, 2024, 01:04:55 PM »
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BRTD
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« Reply #1360 on: January 03, 2024, 02:03:31 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on January 03, 2024, 01:04:55 PM

Trump +25 district.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #1361 on: January 03, 2024, 02:21:01 PM »
Quote from: For We Are Not Yet, We Are Only Becoming on January 03, 2024, 02:03:31 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on January 03, 2024, 01:04:55 PM

Trump +25 district.

Atlanta suburbs or elsewhere?
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #1362 on: January 03, 2024, 02:28:16 PM »
Quote from: CentristRepublican on January 03, 2024, 02:21:01 PM
Quote from: For We Are Not Yet, We Are Only Becoming on January 03, 2024, 02:03:31 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on January 03, 2024, 01:04:55 PM

Trump +25 district.

Atlanta suburbs or elsewhere?

Augusta suburbs.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #1363 on: January 03, 2024, 02:45:17 PM »
Quote from: CentristRepublican on January 03, 2024, 02:21:01 PM
Quote from: For We Are Not Yet, We Are Only Becoming on January 03, 2024, 02:03:31 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on January 03, 2024, 01:04:55 PM

Trump +25 district.

Atlanta suburbs or elsewhere?
Columbia County is suburban Augusta, but the district seems to be on the fringes, so kind of a  mix of Augusta suburbs with exurbs and some rural areas (it also stretches outside the county.)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1364 on: January 03, 2024, 03:07:35 PM »
Quote from: For We Are Not Yet, We Are Only Becoming on January 03, 2024, 02:45:17 PM
Quote from: CentristRepublican on January 03, 2024, 02:21:01 PM
Quote from: For We Are Not Yet, We Are Only Becoming on January 03, 2024, 02:03:31 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on January 03, 2024, 01:04:55 PM

Trump +25 district.

Atlanta suburbs or elsewhere?
Columbia County is suburban Augusta, but the district seems to be on the fringes, so kind of a  mix of Augusta suburbs with exurbs and some rural areas (it also stretches outside the county.)

I believe Spectator has mentioned he's from Columbia County.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1365 on: January 09, 2024, 08:11:17 PM »

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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1366 on: January 09, 2024, 10:53:56 PM »
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1367 on: January 10, 2024, 04:34:48 AM »
Democrats overperform in deep blue districts, Republicans overperform in deep red ones.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1368 on: January 10, 2024, 10:02:57 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on January 10, 2024, 04:34:48 AM
Democrats overperform in deep blue districts, Republicans overperform in deep red ones.

Not exactly true, Dems overperformed in the Alabama special last night. I believe it was R+66 in a Trump +73 district
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1369 on: January 10, 2024, 11:15:56 AM »
Virginia who? never heard of her. When's the next real special election? (waves hands)
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1370 on: January 16, 2024, 08:51:38 AM »
It's Election Day in FL House District 35 which was previously held by a republican but was won by Biden in 2020. Dems went into election day with a 650 voter turnout advantage (D+4.8%). Election day is expected to be heavily GOP and the race is expected to be close.

Both sides have spent over $1.5M+ with the GOP having a spending edge (typical in Florida).
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1371 on: January 16, 2024, 01:57:36 PM »
I’ve gotten so many calls for this race because of my phone number being incorrectly linked with a Democrat named Karen in this district.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1372 on: January 16, 2024, 02:46:17 PM »
As a lover of NJ politics, I still can't get over the fact that the Democratic candidate here is named Tom Keen.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1373 on: January 16, 2024, 04:17:18 PM »
Where is Wbrocks67 to tell us how this means Dems will win in 2024 by a landslide?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1374 on: January 16, 2024, 04:31:12 PM »
Quote from: Climate change is a force for good on January 16, 2024, 04:17:18 PM
Where is Wbrocks67 to tell us how this means Dems will win in 2024 by a landslide?

Sis you are one of the last people to mock anyone about election predictions after 2022...
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