State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Deevers seems to be doing well in the first rural denser precinct reported, outperforming Stitt by 10 and only underperforming the 2022 R by 13.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Deevers takes the lead with 15 of 23 precincts reporting:

Candidate Choice   Absentee Mail   Early Voting   Election Day   Total Votes   
Percent

DUSTY DEEVERS (REP)   111   137   1,574   1,822   
50.85%

LARRY BUSH (DEM)   118   172   1,471   1,761   
49.15%

Total   229   309   3,045   3,583

[GeorgiaModerate]

Deevers now up 55-45 with 19/23 precincts reporting.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Finished at R +10.96, a 9 point underperformance of Trump 2020 and 26 point underperformance of 2022. Candidate wanted to ban all abortion and porn.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Finished at R +10.96, a 9 point underperformance of Trump 2020 and 26 point underperformance of 2022. Candidate wanted to ban all abortion and porn.

He also wants to ban no-fault divorce, according to what I've seen on Twitter.

[Yellowhammer]

Finished at R +10.96, a 9 point underperformance of Trump 2020 and 26 point underperformance of 2022. Candidate wanted to ban all abortion and porn.

He also wants to ban no-fault divorce, according to what I've seen on Twitter.

Good

[Senator Incitatus]

Finished at R +10.96, a 9 point underperformance of Trump 2020 and 26 point underperformance of 2022. Candidate wanted to ban all abortion and porn.

He also wants to ban no-fault divorce, according to what I've seen on Twitter.

This is actually probably the least controversial of the three.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Finished at R +10.96, a 9 point underperformance of Trump 2020 and 26 point underperformance of 2022. Candidate wanted to ban all abortion and porn.

He also wants to ban no-fault divorce, according to what I've seen on Twitter.

This is actually probably the least controversial of the three.

I suspect that it would be the most unpopular policy of the three, although I’d like to see some surveys on it.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting that the Dem outperformed the most in the urban areas, something we don't normally see in these specials.

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1734759316253524447

[Progressive Pessimist]

Dusty Deevers sounds like a porn name.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

You hope

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

It isn’t going to flip. It’s a more WWC seat so special election overperformances are harder for Rs here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This makes the State House now tied, although I think it's moot because the legislature isn't in session. And it means it flipping would flip control, meaning that the Democrats aren't going to just ignore it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

Not impossible to see D+20, given what happened in Oklahoma on the same night.  One conclusion is as valid as the other.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

Based off of… one special election?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

Based off of… one special election?

And completely ignoring the other one on the same night.  But he sees through (R)ose-colored glasses.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

Based off of… one special election?

And completely ignoring the other one on the same night.  But he sees through (R)ose-colored glasses.

I have long believed that Florida is trending left, so the result was expected. Their only other recent outperformance (which wasn't even as big as Florida's) was against someone who called for banning no-fault divorce, abortion, and porn.

[Kevinstat]

Maine State Representative Lois Galgay Reckitt (D-South Portland) died on October 30.  No special election has been called yet (the South Portland City Council would have to send a letter to the Governor asking her to call a special election, which will probably happen since there's over a year left on her term and the special election could coincide with Maine's Presidential Primary on March 5 (while such a date might benefit Republicans the seat is rock-solid D nowadays; it's on the northeast end of South Portland while it's the western end that used to sometimes elect Republicans into the mid-2000s (decade)).  Also, terms beginning on or after the third Wednesday in June of the odd year (so in the last ~73% of a term considering that terms start on the first Wednesday in December after the election) no longer count as terms for term-limits purposes under a law change enacted this year, so there's no reason why a prospective successor (and Rep. Reckitt or Galgay Reckitt (not sure if it was a dual but non-hyphenated last name or if she just liked to have her middle (and maiden) name shown on documents and such) would have been term-limited next year so people may already have been planning to run) wouldn't want to get into office sooner.

South Portland council sets November 2024 vote to fill vacant seat in Legislature (Portland Press Herald)

The heading of the article is not entirely accurate, as there was already going to be an election for the seat (and all 186 "full fledged" (my own terminology)* Legislative seats) in November 2024, and that's the only election there will be for that seat in November.  This isn't a New York State or Texas congressional district.

The short time frame between when the election would most likely have been (March 5, coinciding with the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries in Maine) and the statutory end of the Second Regular Session of the 131st Maine Legislature (terms were for only one year until the one elected in 1880 apart from seemingly one 2-year term in the 1840s, which is how the Maine Legislature got ahead of the U.S. Congress in terms of the number of the terms) was cited as a main reason in the City Council vote against requesting that a special election be scheduled, as well as the cost involved in printing the special election ballots even if the state would pay for that, which councilors didn't seem sure about.  It's an uber-safe D seat.  It was the other end of South Portland which was competitive back in the 1990s and 2000s (decade), but even it seems safe D nowadays.

*Maine also has largely non-voting seats (although preferences in the committees they sit in are noted) for the Penobscot Nation, Passamaquoddy Tribe and the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians, but elections for those seats in tribal council or whatever are likely held on a different day.  As it turns out, the Penobscot and the Maliseet (the latter of whom only got their seat in late 2011 or early 2012) have left their seats unfilled in protest of what they see as unfair treatment by the state.  The Passamaquoddy had joined the Penobscot in the initial withdrawal of their representatives in May 2015 several years ago, but they appointed a member following the 2016 elections and the Maliseet chose not to appoint a member after the 2018 elections and from then on.

Special election to be held March 5 to fill vacant state House seat in South Portland (Portland Press Herald)

Special election set to fill House District 122 seat (Secretary of State's Office press release on the election being scheduled and the various deadlines)

Party committee (D/R/Green/Libertarian) "caucus" paperwork/non-party candidate petition (50 signatures needed) deadline: 5:00 p.m. on Friday, December 29, 2023

Write-in candidate deadline (for a "declaration of write-in candidacy", without which votes cast for you are counted as blanks): 5:00 p.m. on Wednesday, January 3, 2024

Election date: Tuesday, March 5, 2024 (coincident with Maine's Democratic and Republican Presidential Primary elections)

It appears that everyone assumed the order on last week's meeting would be passed, and so no one actually contacted them urging them to pass it while someone did speak on the other side at last week's meeting.  But when it became known that the Council had voted to leave the seat vacant, residents of the vacant House districts and others in the city, including other members of the South Portland legislative delegation, started contacting City Councilors, who reversed course in a 6-1 (although the Mayor reported it as 5 to 1, like he's able to vote at the same time as the other Councilors but his vote only is only counted officially if it breaks a tie).

If you have like 70 minutes to kill and want to see how municipal government discussions of special elections go in Maine's fourth largest city (26,498 people as of and according to the 2020 census), you can view recordings of the December 5, 2023 meeting (relevant portion from 26:05 to 36:26) and the December 12, 2023 meeting (relevant portion from to 1:01 to 58:05).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

The Republican in that Minnesota special election already had a network and ground game set up because she was the candidate for that seat in 2022. That went far in a low turnout election. This seat was unopposed last election so there's no one comparable.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

You’re making a huge assumption based on just one election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1737536151773487134

[Boobs]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1737536151773487134

 I believe Arizona does not have legislative special elections, and instead vacancies are filled by a committee of the departing member's party.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1737536151773487134

 I believe Arizona does not have legislative special elections, and instead vacancies are filled by a committee of the departing member's party.

That committee selects three persons, the final choice is made by the relevent county government (Maricopa; 4 R, 1 D).