2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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City of Madison has counted 12.85% of all absentees in the first 2 hours.  On this pace all absentees will be counted by a little after 10 pm

Can we extrapolate this pace to PA?

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City of Madison has counted 12.85% of all absentees in the first 2 hours.  On this pace all absentees will be counted by a little after 10 pm

Excellent, so now it's mostly Pennsylvania and possibly Michigan that may take longer than a day. Hopefully we get a Wisconsin call tonight

I believe MI was allowed to start preprocessing the ballots yesterday so they should theoretically be ahead of the WI pace.

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https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323728684482703365?s=20
Gain of just 16K versus 230

I feel much better now about FL than I did in the morning when the GOP was gaining 0.3-0.5 points per hour.  And the GOP partisans were claiming that they were going to keep that pace up all day and that electorate may even get more R as the workday kicked into gear.

Their pace has slowed down to about 0.2 points per hour since lunchtime and this latest update is them gaining only 0.1. If this keeps up, the GOP registration lead may be held down to under R+2.5 which I'd take. If the post work electorate is more D then maybe they can even claw back more.

The Gillum/Nelson electorate in 2018 was R+4 by party ID (not the same as registration that we are talking about but for the sake of discussion)

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To get to even R+3 the GOP would have to win a pretty huge chunk of whatever vote is outstanding in Florida, right?

If they're at 10.4M now, and assuming they get to maybe 11M, that's... a hard ask.

To reach R+3 they'd need to increase their lead by roughly 0.35-0.4 points per hour till polls close. They have averaged R+0.14 per hour for the last 3 hours and it has been declining. I agree, it's a tough ask.

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https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323745241107734530

R+1.79. Barring something crazy, the Ds look on track to holding R edge under +2.5,

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https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323759400364974081

R lead 1.89,% up 0.1 in the last hour well short of the margins they need to hit to end up with R+3 or higher. At this point they will barely trickle over R+2 if this pace keeps up.

This dump also includes the 5-5:30 pm post work half hour, no GOP surge so far.

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https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323759400364974081

R lead 1.89 up 0.1 in the last well short of the margins they need to hit to end up with R+3 or higher. At this point they will barely trickle over R+2 if this pace keeps up.

This dump also includes the 5-5:30 pm post work half hour, no GOP surge so far.

does this dump even include Miami Dade?

I don't think the last 3 hrs of Miami are included but I am not 100% sure.

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We need to wait until some of these counties are reporting close to 90%+ before we make generalizations about what this means for the vote elsewhere. We have no idea if this is VBM or not, which could heavily skew the early results.

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The term "latinx" needs to never be uttered by another Democratic politician or anyone affiliated with the Democratic party ever again. It has always felt weird to me that white liberals were imposing a term on a minority community which the the minority community seems to have no interest in.

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It seems like the underperformance in the WOW counties in WI might end up costing Trump the state.

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But...but moderate heroes!

https://twitter.com/davidminpdx/status/1323855987338563585
Let this be the death of third-way DLC politics.

LOL You think a further left candidate would have done better? Eastmann got obliterated in NE-2, which Biden carried comfortably.

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It seems to me Arizona, NV, WI and MI are all still up for grabs.

I feel like talk on here is premature and is the same kind of talk that made “doomers” feel like idiots.

Doomers were right to doom.  Look at the race.

Oh I know that. I was one of them and despite being wrong about almost everything I say on here other than a Nevada Senate race ....  i relentlessly got mocked. And I’m still being mocked about Georgia as people in here dillude themselves into thinking Biden is going to win Georgia

Get the eff over yourself, this is not about yourself or your little feelings! How do you get girls in real life? Man the eff up and stop being such pussy.

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Here's a question- why are Cubans who came into this country ILLEGALLY on boats allowed to stay here and no one questions it? Why hasn't ICE been crawling the streets of Miami deporting all illegal Cubans?

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Other than Trump, John James and Tim Scott are the two Republicans that piss me off the most. I really hope he loses so that it doesn't encourage that.

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Scott Walker says a recount isn't necessary.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/scott-walker-suggests-biden-s-wisconsin-lead-too-big-for-recount/ar-BB1aGYLa?ocid=Peregrine

Incoming "Droopy Scott" tweet in 3... 2... 1.

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Other than Trump, John James and Tim Scott are the two Republicans that piss me off the most. I really hope he loses so that it doesn't encourage that.

I think every Republican in the Congress is terrible, but you *really* have to not be paying attention if you think Tim Scott is even in the top half of the worst elected Republicans.

I am not saying he is objectively one of the worst Rs in the congress, I am talking about the Rs that I personally find most distasteful.

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I have never done this before but MillennialModerate is the first occupant of my ignore list.

Same lol. I don't even mind doomers... it's the constant spamming the thread with posts.

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To those saying Biden will be a lame duck - this election is about getting rid of Trump, who is a threat to American democracy. I can live with Biden and a GOP Senate.

Same. I really hope GOP nominates someone normal like Mitt Romney, John Huntsman or Ben Sasse in 2024 so we don't have to worry about this kinda stuff.

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https://twitter.com/jdcapelouto/status/1324090574710996992

And Twitter hasn't marked it as misinformation, even after thousands of Rts.

Guess it's ok if it helps the Libs tho

How does this help the Liberals? The only thing it does is cause panic among the Ds which is definitely not helping.

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John James looking like he's going down in MI pleases me no end. I don't hate all Republicans and I'm not black but I could never trust a man who doesn't have solidarity with his own people.

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If the election goes Biden's way and is declared even by Fox News, if Mitch and senate Republicans have backbone, they should tell Trump the game is over and he has to concede. But they're not Barry Goldwater and Howard Baker, maybe besides the usual suspects as Mitt. However, if Trump loses, Mitch owes nothing to him any longer. Maybe he is once doing the right thing.

Mitch won't endorse Trump trying to steal the election, not because of "doing the right thing" but from a purely self-interested point of view. If you are Mitch things are pretty good, you have an R majority in the SCOTUS, a structural advantage in the Senate and in the EC. There really is very little reason to blantently try to steal an election, because if you do that, all of that including the SCOTUS majority is in jeopardy. If you do that then the institutions are in trouble (why would you do that when the institutions as currently constructed favor you) and things like secession are on the table.

Mitch has used Trump like a (very tiny) condom, he used to him to ejaculate his SC majority, now he's basically done with him and ready to throw him in the garbage and move on unless he can legitimately win.

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I would love to know which animal Ann Selzer sacrifices to the gods each election cycle in exchange for accurate polls.

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I am LOVING what a horrible time the orange one is having right now      

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So I guess the 6 PM Georgia drop was fake news and we're not getting anything until AZ and GA both drop at 9?

I only saw 9 EST Georgia drop. My guess is someone saw 6 PST on twitter missed the PST part and started spreading the rumor.

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https://twitter.com/michpoligal/status/1324140490497925120

Haha... snowflakes!!! I would pay good money to have their tears bottled up and delivered to me (upto $200).