2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[Benjamin Frank]

Two thirds counted approximately

BRANDON JOHNSON
173,711
48.77%

PAUL VALLAS
182,439
51.23%

Total Votes
356,150

Does anybody know the eligible voter total?

[Benjamin Frank]

VALLAS - 182,439 (51.2%)
JOHNSON - 173,711 (48.8%)

57% in, gap has narrowed from 11,000 to 9,000.

57%?

Precincts Reported: 855 of 1,291 (66.23%)

[Benjamin Frank]

VALLAS - 182,439 (51.2%)
JOHNSON - 173,711 (48.8%)

57% in, gap has narrowed from 11,000 to 9,000.

57%?

Precincts Reported: 855 of 1,291 (66.23%)

NYT is doing an estimate of the vote reported, rather than precincts; they think 57%. Could have to do with outstanding mail.

Ah, thanks!

[Benjamin Frank]

We aren't going to know who won tonight.

Laugh about it, shout about it, when you've got to choose, every way you look at it, you lose.

[Benjamin Frank]

VALLAS - 182,439 (51.2%)
JOHNSON - 173,711 (48.8%)

57% in, gap has narrowed from 11,000 to 9,000.

57%?

Precincts Reported: 855 of 1,291 (66.23%)

Slow-counted Mail. Which is expected to be very Johnson.

Well hung ballots.

[Benjamin Frank]

Irrespective of what we think of Vallas, can we all agree that Illinois would (likely) be better off if he had won the Democratic primary for governor in 2002 over Rod Blagojevich?

I remember at the time thinking that the people there would be Illinnoyed if Vallas didn't win the primary.

[Benjamin Frank]

BRANDON JOHNSON
242,970

50.11%

PAUL VALLAS
241,859

49.89%

Total Votes
484,829

 

[Benjamin Frank]

Chicago voters voted for St. Louis, and they're going to get it good and hard. The city might not clear 2 million next census if Brandon gets his way.

We have to wait and see, within a year. Who does he pick as his police commissioner?

Paul Vallas?

[Benjamin Frank]

Fascinated by the takes that Chicago is doomed because they voted for a new mayor. Even if his policies were destined to be destructive, how often do big city mayors (or any executives, really) actually get their entire platform enacted? If I didn't know better, I'd think that people can only imagine cities in perpetual states of collapse.

Crime has risen dramatically in several cities since the 2020 George Floyd protests. The logically thing would be increase police presense and crack down on crime like shop lifting and car break ins.

Johnson wants to do the opposite. In fact, he wants to push policies that made it so bad on the west coast.

Even if Johnson doesn't make it worst (which is a big IF), it will not get better. With Vallas, you had a small chance it would get better.

So guess what? People will contiune not to feel safe and move out the city.

Want to know what'll hurt inner city kids the most? When every rich, middle and working class family moves out. Watch what'll happen to inner city schools. There is already a teacher shortage. No pay increase by Johnson will make up for every decent child leaving the city, leaving behind the worst.

Could you have a more melodramatic take?

[Benjamin Frank]

Fascinated by the takes that Chicago is doomed because they voted for a new mayor. Even if his policies were destined to be destructive, how often do big city mayors (or any executives, really) actually get their entire platform enacted? If I didn't know better, I'd think that people can only imagine cities in perpetual states of collapse.

Crime has risen dramatically in several cities since the 2020 George Floyd protests. The logically thing would be increase police presense and crack down on crime like shop lifting and car break ins.

Johnson wants to do the opposite. In fact, he wants to push policies that made it so bad on the west coast.

Even if Johnson doesn't make it worst (which is a big IF), it will not get better. With Vallas, you had a small chance it would get better.

So guess what? People will contiune not to feel safe and move out the city.

Want to know what'll hurt inner city kids the most? When every rich, middle and working class family moves out. Watch what'll happen to inner city schools. There is already a teacher shortage. No pay increase by Johnson will make up for every decent child leaving the city, leaving behind the worst.

Could you have a more melodramatic take?

How am I melodramatic?

Everything you wrote is sensationalist and over the top.

[Benjamin Frank]

Fascinated by the takes that Chicago is doomed because they voted for a new mayor. Even if his policies were destined to be destructive, how often do big city mayors (or any executives, really) actually get their entire platform enacted? If I didn't know better, I'd think that people can only imagine cities in perpetual states of collapse.

Crime has risen dramatically in several cities since the 2020 George Floyd protests. The logically thing would be increase police presense and crack down on crime like shop lifting and car break ins.

Johnson wants to do the opposite. In fact, he wants to push policies that made it so bad on the west coast.

Even if Johnson doesn't make it worst (which is a big IF), it will not get better. With Vallas, you had a small chance it would get better.

So guess what? People will contiune not to feel safe and move out the city.

Want to know what'll hurt inner city kids the most? When every rich, middle and working class family moves out. Watch what'll happen to inner city schools. There is already a teacher shortage. No pay increase by Johnson will make up for every decent child leaving the city, leaving behind the worst.

Could you have a more melodramatic take?

How am I melodramatic?

Everything you wrote is sensationalist and over the top.

Did I say anything false? Or even unlikely? Everything I said is based on existing treads are they not? Families are leaving Chicago. Schools are getting worst. Crime is getting worst.

I live on the west coast in Vancouver, British Columbia  (Richmond.) Most of Vancouver is very safe and the worst parts are generally nowhere near as bad as the media sensationalism makes it out to be.         

To the degree that policing is involved, drugs being illegal makes it worse. Yes, drugs should not be consumed on the streets.

As to families leaving, I'm sure most of Chicago is very safe, and even in the parts that aren't, most people are unlikely to leave. Not eveybody is as easily frightened as you seem to be.

It's funny how so many easily frightened people over crime were calling out those rightly concerned over Covid for being easily frightened. Maybe you should just never leave your house.

As to schools, I think schools have been getting worse since Socrates.

[Benjamin Frank]

Fascinated by the takes that Chicago is doomed because they voted for a new mayor. Even if his policies were destined to be destructive, how often do big city mayors (or any executives, really) actually get their entire platform enacted? If I didn't know better, I'd think that people can only imagine cities in perpetual states of collapse.

Crime has risen dramatically in several cities since the 2020 George Floyd protests. The logically thing would be increase police presense and crack down on crime like shop lifting and car break ins.

Johnson wants to do the opposite. In fact, he wants to push policies that made it so bad on the west coast.

Even if Johnson doesn't make it worst (which is a big IF), it will not get better. With Vallas, you had a small chance it would get better.

So guess what? People will contiune not to feel safe and move out the city.

Want to know what'll hurt inner city kids the most? When every rich, middle and working class family moves out. Watch what'll happen to inner city schools. There is already a teacher shortage. No pay increase by Johnson will make up for every decent child leaving the city, leaving behind the worst.

Could you have a more melodramatic take?

How am I melodramatic?

Everything you wrote is sensationalist and over the top.

Did I say anything false? Or even unlikely? Everything I said is based on existing treads are they not? Families are leaving Chicago. Schools are getting worst. Crime is getting worst.

I live on the west coast in Vancouver, British Columbia  (Richmond.) Most of Vancouver is very safe and the worst parts are generally nowhere near as bad as the media sensationalism makes it out to be.          

To the degree that policing is involved, drugs being illegal makes it worse. Yes, drugs should not be consumed on the streets.

As to families leaving, I'm sure most of Chicago is very safe, and even in the parts that aren't, most people are unlikely to leave. Not eveybody is as easily frightened as you seem to be.

It's funny how so many easily frightened people over crime were calling out those rightly concerned over Covid for being easily frightened. Maybe you should just never leave your house.

As to schools, I think schools have been getting worse since Socrates.

Chicago has a worse murder rate than most third world countries.

That's one data point and the likelihood of being murdered in Chicago is very low.

Also, nothing is going to improve regarding murder, or really crime in general, unless and until guns are dealt with.

[Benjamin Frank]

Fascinated by the takes that Chicago is doomed because they voted for a new mayor. Even if his policies were destined to be destructive, how often do big city mayors (or any executives, really) actually get their entire platform enacted? If I didn't know better, I'd think that people can only imagine cities in perpetual states of collapse.

Crime has risen dramatically in several cities since the 2020 George Floyd protests. The logically thing would be increase police presense and crack down on crime like shop lifting and car break ins.

Johnson wants to do the opposite. In fact, he wants to push policies that made it so bad on the west coast.

Even if Johnson doesn't make it worst (which is a big IF), it will not get better. With Vallas, you had a small chance it would get better.

So guess what? People will contiune not to feel safe and move out the city.

Want to know what'll hurt inner city kids the most? When every rich, middle and working class family moves out. Watch what'll happen to inner city schools. There is already a teacher shortage. No pay increase by Johnson will make up for every decent child leaving the city, leaving behind the worst.

Could you have a more melodramatic take?

How am I melodramatic?

Everything you wrote is sensationalist and over the top.

Did I say anything false? Or even unlikely? Everything I said is based on existing treads are they not? Families are leaving Chicago. Schools are getting worst. Crime is getting worst.

I live on the west coast in Vancouver, British Columbia  (Richmond.) Most of Vancouver is very safe and the worst parts are generally nowhere near as bad as the media sensationalism makes it out to be.          

To the degree that policing is involved, drugs being illegal makes it worse. Yes, drugs should not be consumed on the streets.

As to families leaving, I'm sure most of Chicago is very safe, and even in the parts that aren't, most people are unlikely to leave. Not eveybody is as easily frightened as you seem to be.

It's funny how so many easily frightened people over crime were calling out those rightly concerned over Covid for being easily frightened. Maybe you should just never leave your house.

As to schools, I think schools have been getting worse since Socrates.

First of all, you live in Canada. The US doesn't have the safety net Canada has which has resulted in a lot of poverty. That of course doesn't justify crime. Nor does Canada have the history of racial divides the US has.

Chicago has a reputation for being a dangerous city. I live in the Southern US, Missippie Delta area. A lot of black folks here have family in Chicago, who moved during the great migration. A lot of said family have moved back south. Crime is a big issue, along with taxes and weather.

Chicago lost 45k people from 2020-2021
https://www.illinoispolicy.org/79-of-illinois-communities-lose-people-in-2021-chicago-loses-45k/

Crime has gotton so bad in some places, certain companies will not insure cars in the St. Louis area for example

Safety net in Vancouver? Hrm. There is a fairly large tent city of homeless people in Vancouver. There are fires and violence there all breathlessly reported by the media (and I don't doubt that it's terrible when they occur), but I and a friend of mine walk through the area once a week (to be sure not at night) to go to a restaurant, and it's mostly peaceful.

Chicago has a reputation for being a dangerous city, and the U.S South, especially the rural south, has a reputation for trumping up charges against people passing through in order to seize their assets.

It seems there's no place all that safe to go to.

[Benjamin Frank]

I've noticed the folks arguing with me and have stopped replying to my posts once I started posting stats to back me up...

The stats aren't in dispute, it's the interpretation of those facts that are in dispute.

And, obviously, how 'safe' somebody feels is quite subjective.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/NewsWire_US/status/1640785541858730004

Good. If they're going to throw a tantrum because their guy didn't win, they're unfit to be a police officer.

They feel that politicians like Dinkins, de Blasio, and now Brandon Johnson don't know what it's like to be a cop and they feel that these politicians support minority lawlessness.

They want mayors and governors who have their backs, like Christie, Pete Wilson, Giuliani, Daley, etc.

What the police seem to want (in general) are easy to enforce laws like public drug crimes, and not to have to deal with much more complicated things like white collar crime and fraud.

How much of that is due to race is another issue.

[Benjamin Frank]

Precincts Reported: 1,281 of 1,291 (99.23%)

BRANDON JOHNSON
285,773

51.42%

PAUL VALLAS
269,951

48.58%

Total Votes
555,724

[Benjamin Frank]

I'd also think that if 'more guns lead to less crime', that there should be zero crime in the United States by now.

Maybe the police unions should stop supporting gun nut candidates. (Not saying that's the case here.)

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/NewsWire_US/status/1640785541858730004

Good. If they're going to throw a tantrum because their guy didn't win, they're unfit to be a police officer.

They feel that politicians like Dinkins, de Blasio, and now Brandon Johnson don't know what it's like to be a cop and they feel that these politicians support minority lawlessness.

They want mayors and governors who have their backs, like Christie, Pete Wilson, Giuliani, Daley, etc.

What the police seem to want (in general) are easy to enforce laws like public drug crimes, and not to have to deal with much more complicated things like white collar crime and fraud.

How much of that is due to race is another issue.

Some of it is racial, yes, because a lot of minorities commit a sizeable amount of crime. Dinkins, Johnson and Adams are black mayors and they are not seen as having the police's back, even if they have made concessions to the police. It's not enough for the Italian/Irish ethnic unions that run these big cities.

Well, they commit a lot of the crime that they police enforce. That's not the same as to whether they commit a lot of crime (or a disproportionate amount of crime.)

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/NewsWire_US/status/1640785541858730004

Good. If they're going to throw a tantrum because their guy didn't win, they're unfit to be a police officer.

They feel that politicians like Dinkins, de Blasio, and now Brandon Johnson don't know what it's like to be a cop and they feel that these politicians support minority lawlessness.

They want mayors and governors who have their backs, like Christie, Pete Wilson, Giuliani, Daley, etc.

What the police seem to want (in general) are easy to enforce laws like public drug crimes, and not to have to deal with much more complicated things like white collar crime and fraud.

How much of that is due to race is another issue.

Some of it is racial, yes, because a lot of minorities commit a sizeable amount of crime. Dinkins, Johnson and Adams are black mayors and they are not seen as having the police's back, even if they have made concessions to the police. It's not enough for the Italian/Irish ethnic unions that run these big cities.

Well, they commit a lot of the crime that they police enforce. That's not the same as to whether they commit a lot of crime (or a disproportionate amount of crime.)

In the big cities, Blacks and Latinos commit a large percentage of violent crime. That's a fact. Whites commit white collar crime. That is fact. That is why stop and frisk targeted Blacks and Latino men in most big cities because that was where most of the violent crime, especially gun violence came from. Fact. That however, does not warrant stop and frisk as S&F is invasive and causes racial tension, but it is factually true.

This is a very good reason to legalize and regulate all drugs.

[Benjamin Frank]

BRANDON JOHNSON
286,647
51.42%

PAUL VALLAS
270,775
48.58%

Total Votes
557,422

 

[Benjamin Frank]

It looks like all the votes have been counted.
https://chicagoelections.gov/en/election-results-specifics.asp

[Benjamin Frank]

I believe in 2002 Paul Vallas did best in suburban Cook County while Roland Burris carried Chicago.

[Benjamin Frank]

It was a close election and all that, and there are obvious other issues and touchy subjects for a lot of voters, but I think the result also shows that a lot of people in Chicago either reject the media driven sensationalism that Chicago is overridden with crime, or don't believe that additional policing is the solution to crime (or maybe believe that due to America being overridden with guns, that there isn't any solution to crime.)

[Benjamin Frank]

It looks like all the votes have been counted.
https://chicagoelections.gov/en/election-results-specifics.asp

No, they have not. There's plenty of mail still to come.

Oh, thanks!

[Benjamin Frank]

Not to make this about me, and despite what I've said in this thread... People call me strange, but other than my interest in U. S politics here,  I'm a white middle class suburban professional establishment liberal and I would have voted for Paul Vallas. I'm a cliche.

To broaden this out if anybody is interested: to what degree are people's politics determined by their cultural geography? Maybe everything else is just rationalization.