2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Benjamin Frank]

Some people seem to know this better than me, but from what I can tell, Biden is running out the clock well in Arizona.

[Benjamin Frank]

Had Allegheny County been able to report today this probably would have been over now.

The fish that is temporarily saving Trump?

[Benjamin Frank]

Does Trump attempt to negotiate his way out of the White House or will he refuse to concede under any circumstances or does he not appreciate the legal dangers he's facing as a private citizen?

[Benjamin Frank]

I don't know how much significance this has to the 2020 election, but don't forget in 2018 Kyrsten Sinema had a fairly large lead that closed until she was trailing Martha McSally, but then won when the last votes came in.

In 2018 there was something of a rollercoaster effect to the count.

[Benjamin Frank]

Orange county seems likes its gonna trend R, same margin as 2016, my guess is CA 48 and stuff like that moved right while hispanics and maybe(?) Vietnamese moved to the right?

I think what happened here is that Dana Rohrabacher (R-Russia) wasn't on the ballot.

[Benjamin Frank]

Biden won Virginia Beach so I would not take it for granted that military vote will be heavy republican.

The CNN Exit Poll has them 52-45 for Trump, but I don't know if overseas military would be different and there are likely differences depending on the state.

Of course, those are for all veterans, not just those in the active service.

[Benjamin Frank]

Does anybody have the numbers for the Presidential election results per Congressional district in Maine and Nebraska?

[Benjamin Frank]

Anybody watching on CNN sick of this idiot Little Ricky Santorum?

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/hjessy_/status/1324568910151229441
PA: Biden pulls 74% in batch of 3,803. Trump lead cut down to 24,479.

The numbers in Pennsylvania right now are 3.283 for Trump to 3.258 for Biden.

I was watching earlier in the day and I wondered if the numbers would be 3.2 million for Trump and 3 million for Biden at that point, just because I like that kind of symmetry.

In the end when Biden got to 3 million, Trump was at 3.196 million.

So, the votes sine then have been 87,000 for Trump and 258,000 for Biden or just under 75%.  This has been consistent with all the mail in votes coming in in Pennsylvania.

[Benjamin Frank]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

He's on track to overtake him, but there's still the military ballots and it's likely headed for a recount regardless.

My assumption is Biden ends up winning it.

It's not military ballots. It's 9k mail ballots that might still come in or might not, which might include a small amount of military.

What's left otherwise ahead of the provisionals and mail-ins that may not actually exist:

Clayton County: Approx 3,900
 Cobb County: 700
 Floyd County: 444
 Forsyth County: ? Probably a small amount but people said earlier its nearly all done.
 Gwinnett County: 4,800
 Laurens County: 1,797
 Taylor County: 456

Georgia is now 1,709 votes for Trump.

[Benjamin Frank]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

He's on track to overtake him, but there's still the military ballots and it's likely headed for a recount regardless.

My assumption is Biden ends up winning it.

It's not military ballots. It's 9k mail ballots that might still come in or might not, which might include a small amount of military.

What's left otherwise ahead of the provisionals and mail-ins that may not actually exist:

Clayton County: Approx 3,900
 Cobb County: 700
 Floyd County: 444
 Forsyth County: ? Probably a small amount but people said earlier its nearly all done.
 Gwinnett County: 4,800
 Laurens County: 1,797
 Taylor County: 456

Georgia is now 1,709 votes for Trump.

GA SOS shut down for the night so I switched over to Decision Desk. Clayton has reported a few hundred more votes that narrowed the margin to 1,479

Oh nice.

[Benjamin Frank]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Irrespective of who wins or loses Georgia, Trump performed better virtually everywhere than the Republicans did in 2018, yet Brian Kamp won the governorship in Georgia by 53,000 votes.  I think this provides even more evidence that Brian Kamp stole the governorship.

[Benjamin Frank]

If there continues to be an economic recovery, Biden should do what Trump did and immediately take control of the messaging around it. If he does it then 2024 will look decent for him

Not necessarily in this case.  It depends in part on how quickly the economy recovers as to whether most people feel there was a recession or whether it was a Covid caused 'blip' in otherwise sustained economic growth. This gets into economics argument about the marginal benefits of sustained long-term economic growth.  

It took about 6 years for real GDP (meaning net of inflation) to get back to where it was before the start of the Great Recession but, it took much less time than that for the economy to start improving again.  From that perspective, from 2009 or so to 2019, there was 9-10 years of continuing economic growth.

Obviously there is no way a first Biden term can reach that length of sustained economic growth.

[Benjamin Frank]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Irrespective of who wins or loses Georgia, Trump performed better virtually everywhere than the Republicans did in 2018, yet Brian Kamp won the governorship in Georgia by 53,000 votes.  I think this provides even more evidence that Brian Kamp stole the governorship.

That's a pretty big claim, anyway the turnout differential between the counties matter as wlell

It's not a new claim and obviously Stacey Abrams believes it and she also obviously wasn't rejected by the people in Georgia since she's being credited for Georgia being so close.

[Benjamin Frank]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Irrespective of who wins or loses Georgia, Trump performed better virtually everywhere than the Republicans did in 2018, yet Brian Kamp won the governorship in Georgia by 53,000 votes.  I think this provides even more evidence that Brian Kamp stole the governorship.

That was with a midterm electorate and this is with a general election electorate. In a state like Georgia with a strong age divide, that will benefit the Republicans over the Democrats. Also why Republicans do better in the runoffs.

Totally disagree.  2018 was a semi-wave Democratic cycle.

[Benjamin Frank]

Politics aside, who is more annoying on CNN: Rick Santorum or Chris Cuomo?

Did anybody just see that segment with Chris Cuomo where he was obsessing about a recount in Georgia and constantly trying to push (bully) the narrative? I'm not even sure what he was on about, whether he was trying to keep the horserace narrative alive or whether he genuinely wasn't aware that recounts don't change more than a handful of votes.

[Benjamin Frank]

Politics aside, who is more annoying on CNN: Rick Santorum or Chris Cuomo?

Do you ever sometimes start a post off with “Let me be frank with you...”

Frankly, no.

[Benjamin Frank]

Biden will lead in GA by ~4000 at this rate. Trump will surely continue to fundraise to pay for the recount to pay for his impending difficulties.

He'd make better use fundraising to pay for the wall.

[Benjamin Frank]

Updates from AZ, PA and GA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,667 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 1,267 (>99% counted)

Of the remaining ~22,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 11,634 of them - (52.9%)

PA - Biden down by 18,229 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~270,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~144,115 of them - (53.4%)

The ratios of late votes coming in the last 4 hours:

AZ (Biden : Trump =  53.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.8%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

Per the NYT map, the gap in GA is down to 665.

If only for the sake of comparison, I'd be interested to see the figures for NC and AK. The Senate races in both could also still be in contention if the EV ratios for the Dems are comparable to GA or PA.

Other than only around 1/2 of the estimated eligible vote has been counted in Alaska, is there any reason to believe it will become competitive?

[Benjamin Frank]

This thread should be ended at page 538.

[Benjamin Frank]

Biden just gained 602 votes in GA. The margin is now just 665 in Georgia.

Blue Georgia was once the stuff of dreams.

But now it’s reality.

Global warming

Georgia is sinking and I don't want to swim. 

[Benjamin Frank]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Irrespective of who wins or loses Georgia, Trump performed better virtually everywhere than the Republicans did in 2018, yet Brian Kamp won the governorship in Georgia by 53,000 votes.  I think this provides even more evidence that Brian Kamp stole the governorship.

That was with a midterm electorate and this is with a general election electorate. In a state like Georgia with a strong age divide, that will benefit the Republicans over the Democrats. Also why Republicans do better in the runoffs.

Totally disagree.  2018 was a semi-wave Democratic cycle.

I don't think the electorate in Georgia swings as much as in other places. Demographics and who turned out and who didn't are much more important.

I don't want to say the e-word, but it is definitely true that Georgia is less elastic than most other states. If Democrats manage to keep Atlanta-area white suburbanites in their column (possible, but not a given) and Georgia continues to get more demographically favorable (likely), Georgia could become a Titanium Tilt D state that votes Democratic by low single digits in every statewide election.

Heh, maybe by then though all the black working class voters will be Republican.

I'm not trying to be facetious here. There will obviously be a major battle for the direction of the Republican Party wherein one faction argues that the Republican Party should become a multi racial party of the working class.  I personally don't see how they get from here to there given the history and present makeup of the Republican Party, but it's something to watch for.

[Benjamin Frank]

Recounnts don't usually change calls aside from 2000, right?

The recount didn't actually change anything in 2000. But anyway, a recount will change a few hundred votes at most. More significant changes could conceivably come from legal challenges that could get votes thrown out or include votes that were initially thrown out.

The Democrats also won the Washington State governorship in 2004 after a recount (actually 2 recounts.)

[Benjamin Frank]

[Benjamin Frank]

a multi racial party of the working class.

A multi racial party of the working class whose main policy goals are tax cuts for the rich and gutting unions is actually something that I really can hardly fathom.

Yes, I agree but there are also many working class voters who favor tax cuts for the rich and who don't like unions.  I can hardly fathom it either, but there are still a lot of them, even though many of them came of age during the Reagan Administration.

The obvious connections to the Republicans and the working class other than the working class generally being being against those 'liberal coastal elites' and being socially conservative is with supporting resource extraction and (supposedly) promoting manufacturing by opposing free trade agreements.