🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Battista Minola 1616]

To be honest I am not sure what is worse between trying to make neo-Salazarism real to trigger the libs or Ventura's assertion that Sá Carneiro would be proud of CHEGA. Either way, seeing also how Pacheco outmanoeuvered his leader so thoroughly, I can only add myself to the chorus of "LOL".

[Battista Minola 1616]

Oh lol. I thought that 15 debates for the last presidential election were weird, but I guess I had seen nothing yet. Congratulations to Portuguese TV networks for creating something that looks more like a sports league calendar than anything.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I seem to pleasantly notice a decline in CHEGA's polling now that we are actually very close to the election; is this real? I presume it is related to the apparent PSD surge.

[Battista Minola 1616]

With those numbers, CDS could be reduced to no seats or 1-2 in a better scenario.

I feel like for the CDS the only question is whether it manages to scrape by one seat in the Lisbon district (and with numbers like those Mike just posted, that seems unlikely). I wouldn't call it a sad loss anyway...

[Battista Minola 1616]

Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/

One thing that caught my eye when opening the "votómetro" was seeing the CDU in blue. I somehow had no idea this was a thing - I find it very bizarre given that the PCP by itself, like all communist parties, uses red.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Huh, the exit polls are pretty good for Costa. And the early returns are even better. It really seems that his repeated claims that it was only a choice between him and Rio have been pretty successful in polarizing the electorate and doing so in the PS's favour. CHEGA may well be the only minor party to cross 5% which is pretty stunning.

Now I mostly wonder if Costa will get his absolute majority he was asking so loud for.

[Battista Minola 1616]

So far no foreign vote. Do they usually lean Right or lean Left?

European expats lean left while the rest lean right. Doesn’t matter though as PS and PSD will divide the expat seats equally 2 each.

Admittedly the expat vote outside of Europe is so overwhelmingly right-leaning that PSD/PàF got both of its seats as recently as 2015 (and all previous elections going back up to the Guterres era it seems?). But of course this time the party is much, much weaker so that's not remotely in the cards.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Wow, and PS actually won Bragança and got an MP gain. By 15 votes, 0,02%

Right now the only mainland district where PSD is ahead is not in the rural north but our old friend Leiria, just like 2005... still, even that looks close. If PS won it, it would represent an absolute first.

[Battista Minola 1616]

How's the Trotskyist party that keeps nominating Instagram baddies as its PM candidates despite being led by a middle-aged professor doing?

MAS (Movimento Alternativa Socialista) is currently at 0.11% - which I believe is still an improvement over their 2019 showing. Lol.

[Battista Minola 1616]

The leadership of Costa is undisputed, regardless the PS gets a majority or comes close  to it

Is the PPM running?

Just running alone in Madeira, and running in a coalition with PSD.CDS in the Azores.

The latter of which has lost and fairly badly in the famous island of Corvo. Alas.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Yep. I was very wrong. Never even considered the possibility.

No one believe it. The PS even stooped asking for a majority during last week because they thought it was scaring away voters.

I guess after the fairly stunning results of the autárquicas we were bound to have a surprise (or shall we say, a large polling error) on the other side... but yes, almost nobody could have predicted this. I think the most mind-blowing fact is that just one week ago a couple polls got out which had the PSD ahead. How things change!

[Battista Minola 1616]

This is also the first time ever the CDU/PCP loses the arch-communist town of Avis in a legislative election, right? Seems like the PS victory was not just very big but also very broad - plenty of such firsts.

[Battista Minola 1616]

PCP is being criticized for its position regarding the current Russia-Ukraine tension. All parties from left to right have condemned Russia and Putin for their actions, with the exception of PCP.

I am a little surprised that CHEGA (incidentally lol, their constant internal sh**tshows and bleedings of members is hilarious) did not take a position closer to the PCP's on the crisis in Ukraine, in all honesty.

[Battista Minola 1616]

A bit of a random question, but I was wondering if Mike or someone else knows where I can find political maps or full broken-down data from the First Republic. I saw there is some of this on Portuguese Wikipedia but it is very spotty and about as confusing as that time period itself, although it still suggested political-geographical cleavages were nothing like in the modern day. Do you know anything better or more complete?