🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

It's over, I guess... Left-wing voters have made their choice. They prefer stability to ideological purity. Hopefully giving PS so much power won't backfire.

I'm afraid it could. Cavaco and Sócrates are evidence. We'll see.

[Boobs]

I estimate PS ends up with 120 seats.

[Flyersfan232]

34 seats left…

PS 105 (+11)
PSD 69 (-1)
CHEGA 10 (+10)
I.LIBERAL 5 (+5)
PCP-PEV 4 (-5)
BE 3 (-13)

Any chance peg breaks from the commies

[Mike88]

Rui Rio opens the door to leaving the PSD leadership.

[Mike88]

RTP is also projecting a PS majority.

[Mello]

Will the various Left-wing parties learn a lesson from this and form electoral pacts next election?

Nah.

Livre and MAS are already BE spin-offs - egos and typical far-left sectarianism- and it's unlikely they'll go back to the fold.

Zero chances of any electoral pacts involving the PCP (besides the one with the satellite environmentalist fake party - which for the first time since its existence won't have parliamentary representation).  

The absolute majority is a silver lining to those parties. Not sure they'd resist a few more years of having to prop tPS governments

[Logical]

Porto District (40 seats) is done counting.
PS 42,5% (+5,9) - 19 (+2)
PSD 32,3% (+1,2) - 14 (-1)
IL 5,1% (+3,6) - 2 (+2)
BE 4,8% (-5,3) - 2 (-2)
CH 4,4% (+3,8 ) - 2 (+2)
CDU 3,3% (-1,5) - 1 (-1)
PAN 1,7% (-1,8 ) - 0 (-1)
CDS 1,5% (-1,9) - 0 (-1)

PSD lost 1 seat despite increasing its vote share in an illustrative example of D’Hondt.

[Flyersfan232]

Back from dinner and kitchen stuff.

Well, I live in a bubble, literally: My hometown, Póvoa de Varzim

42.5% PSD
32.2% PS
  6.7% CHEGA
  5.0% IL
  3.6% BE
  2.4% CDS
  2.2% CDU
  1.3% PAN
  1.1% Livre

Seem inline with the national results is it a bell weather

[Rikschard]

Porto District (40 seats) is done counting.
PS 42,5% (+5,9) - 19 (+2)
PSD 32,3% (+1,2) - 14 (-1)
IL 5,1% (+3,6) - 2 (+2)
BE 4,8% (-5,3) - 2 (-2)
CH 4,4% (+3,8 ) - 2 (+2)
CDU 3,3% (-1,5) - 1 (-1)
PAN 1,7% (-1,8 ) - 0 (-1)
CDS 1,5% (-1,9) - 0 (-1)

PSD lost 1 seat despite increasing its vote share in a fun example of D’Hondt.

That reminds me of the local election in Alenquer, Lisboa where PS lost 11%, but got a bigger majority.

Also if Costa actually pulls this off, it completely makes up for the underwhelming perfomances in 2015 and 2019. He'll probably break Cavaco's record as PM with most time in power.

[jeron]

Back from dinner and kitchen stuff.

Well, I live in a bubble, literally: My hometown, Póvoa de Varzim

42.5% PSD
32.2% PS
  6.7% CHEGA
  5.0% IL
  3.6% BE
  2.4% CDS
  2.2% CDU
  1.3% PAN
  1.1% Livre

Seem inline with the national results is it a bell weather

It seems more like the opposite with PSD as the largest party and PS second

[Mike88]

Livre elects an MP.

I think the CDS will be wipe out.

[Mello]

34 seats left…

PS 105 (+11)
PSD 69 (-1)
CHEGA 10 (+10)
I.LIBERAL 5 (+5)
PCP-PEV 4 (-5)
BE 3 (-13)

Any chance peg breaks from the commies

If you mean PEV, it isn't a de facto independent party; rather a PCP appendage, a marketing ploy they concoted in the early 80s to 1) shut the door on a potential green party on the left that could compete to their votes 2) soften their image, allowing them to run and show on the ballot with anodyne name and logos, like CDU and a honeycomb instead of the communist and hammer and sickle (with the additional benefit of not losing so many votes to parties like the PCTP/MRPP and UDP that also had the hammer and sickle on their logo).

[Red Velvet]

Livre elects an MP.

I think the CDS will be wipe out.

What about PAN? Could still get a seat? Only 21 seats left and it’s like this:

PS 110 (+12)
PSD 72 (-1)
CHEGA 11 (+11)
I.LIBERAL 6 (+5)
PCP-PEV 5 (-5)
BE 4 (-14)
LIVRE 1 (+1)

[Mike88]

Livre elects an MP.

I think the CDS will be wipe out.

What about PAN? Could still get a seat? Only 21 seats left and it’s like this:

PS 110 (+12)
PSD 72 (-1)
CHEGA 11 (+11)
I.LIBERAL 6 (+5)
PCP-PEV 5 (-5)
BE 4 (-14)
LIVRE 1 (+1)

Could get just one in Lisbon, but it will be a close call.

[Mello]

Livre elects an MP.

I think the CDS will be wipe out.

What about PAN? Could still get a seat? Only 21 seats left and it’s like this:

PS 110 (+12)
PSD 72 (-1)
CHEGA 11 (+11)
I.LIBERAL 6 (+5)
PCP-PEV 5 (-5)
BE 4 (-14)
LIVRE 1 (+1)

Could get just one in Lisbon, but it will be a close call.

I think she'll get in with some margin (relatively speaking, that is)

Lisboa   PAN   1.99   44   Sim   Paula Inês Alves de Sousa Real
Lisboa   CH   1.98   45   Sim   Pedro Manuel de Andrade Pessanha Fernandes
Lisboa   IL   1.98   45   Sim   Bernardo Alves Martinho Amaral Blanco
Lisboa   PS   1.93   47   Sim   Rita Mafalda Nobre Borges Madeira
Lisboa   PSD   1.85   48   Sim   Alexandre Bernardo de Macedo e Lopes Simões
Lisboa   PS   1.85   49   Não   João Miguel Maçarico Nicolau

[Mike88]

Lisbon is going to end up maybe like this: 21 PS, 13 PSD, 4 IL, 4 CH, 2 CDU, 2 BE, 1 Livre, 1 PAN, 0 CDS

And Setúbal: 10 PS, 3 PSD, 2 CDU, 1 CH, 1 BE, 1 IL

The final tally (exluding overseas) : 117 PS, 76 PSD, 12 CH, 8 IL, 6 CDU, 5 BE, 1 Livre, 1 PAN

[VPH]

I'm stunned that after all the Joacine nonsense, LIVRE managed to elect somebody. My guess is enough BE voters went for them.

[Mike88]

Costa is about to speak.

[Mike88]

Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

[crals]

Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Yep. I was very wrong. Never even considered the possibility.

[Mike88]

Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Yep. I was very wrong. Never even considered the possibility.

No one believe it. The PS even stooped asking for a majority during last week because they thought it was scaring away voters.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Yep. I was very wrong. Never even considered the possibility.

No one believe it. The PS even stooped asking for a majority during last week because they thought it was scaring away voters.

I guess after the fairly stunning results of the autárquicas we were bound to have a surprise (or shall we say, a large polling error) on the other side... but yes, almost nobody could have predicted this. I think the most mind-blowing fact is that just one week ago a couple polls got out which had the PSD ahead. How things change!

[Walmart_shopper]

Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Costa is really good at this.

[Mike88]

Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Costa is really good at this.

At what exactly?

Also, Chicão is out. He resigned from CDS leadership.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I'm surprised too. Good on Costa, though honestly I can't be too thrilled that he's being rewarded for f**king over the left and going full neoliberal. And the next PSD leader will almost certainly be to the right of Rio.