🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Flyersfan232]

CDS to elect a new leader during the weekend of 2 and 3 April:

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1492261901291692035

National Council of the CDS-PP approves realization of a Congress on April 2nd and 3rd

CDS National Council met last night and approved the date to elect a new leader, after the resignation of Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos on election night. The party will elect a new leader on the weekend of 2 and 3 April, while the venue is still to be decided. After the meeting, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos said that it was "internal friendly fire" that killed his leadership and that the party needs to start appreciate it self or the electorate will never appreciate CDS. MEP Nuno Melo is expected to announce his candidacy for the leadership, and could be the sole candidate for the leadership. Any new leader has a monumental task ahead, as in almost 50 years of Portuguese Democracy, no party that was wiped out from Parliament ever returned again.

what was the closet to returning?

[Mike88]

what was the closet to returning?

None, actually. UDP won their last MP in 1980 and never again elected again, however they merged with other parties to create the Left Bloc (BE); PRD lost all MPs in 1991 and soon afterwards became a "zombie" party until the far-right picked it up and transform it into PNR, now Ergue-te (E); PSN, a pensioners party in the 90's, also elected in 1991 but then had no breakthrough and after 1995, it was dissolved. So, it's quite difficult for a party to return to Parliament after leaving it, but, who knows, maybe CDS will break this trend and return, we'll see.

[crals]

CDS has some advantages, like having a long history, a significant local presence in some regions including 6 mayors and probably a well-known new leader who is an elected MEP, but 4 years without media coverage will be devastating.

[Mike88]

Media coverage the CDS will always have because they have many pundits on TV and newspapers, plus, like you said, they're still present in regional and local governments, but if that translates into votes is a totally other thing. It seems that Nuno Melo will present his candidacy on Saturday and he may be the sole candidate. The party has a lot of challenges, and one of them is already next year in the Madeira regional elections on September/October 2023. There's currently tensions within CDS about their relationship with the PSD, as some CDS-Madeira members point that the party is being merged with the PSD. The discussion of a possible electoral alliance, or not, between both parties could be tense within the party.

Also, some details of the 30 January exit polls were released today. Pitagórica exit poll (for TVI/CNN Portugal)

https://twitter.com/PCMagalhaes/status/1494277462741725188

In summary:

-PS wins the male and female vote, but by different margins: +8 in men, +18 in women. CHEGA has 10% of the male vote, while just 5% of the female vote. Others parties with small differences;

- Younger voters, bellow 25 years old, voted PSD: 29% PSD to the 27% of the PS. IL reached 12%, while CHEGA got 7%, behind BE who reached 8%.

- Older voters voted massively in the PS: 51% PS to the 28% of PSD. Other parties bellow 6%, with CHEGA and CDU tied in 3rd place with 6%;

- Voters with college degree sided with the PSD, while non college degree voters sided, by a massive margin, with the PS;

The full data is here: https://www.pedro-magalhaes.org/bases-sociais-do-voto-nas-legislativas-de-2022/

[Mike88]

Update:

Well, with the Europe overseas vote rerun, the political situation is on hold for a month and a half, as no one was expecting this outcome:

- The government was caught by surprise with the Court's ruling and many government staff have literally nothing to do. Because the government hasn't been sworn in, it's just a caretaker government with just some powers, no official jobs have been given and many offices aren't doing a thing. PM Costa acknowledged, this morning, that the current situation forced him to postpone the organization of the new cabinet and that he will only make invitations, for ministerial positions, in late March;

- The PSD will hold tomorrow their National Council meeting to analyse the general elections results. Yesterday, some local party leaders gathered, in Leiria city, to try to have a common strategy for a leadership ballot date, but nothing was agreed. Rio has said he wants to leave the party's leadership by July. No one has come forward as a candidate yet, but Luis Montenegro seems to be "rallying troops" in secret, while the mayor of Aveiro city, Ribau Esteves, is seriously considering a run for the leadership, however, he's seen as a loose cannon.

[Mike88]

PSD and CDS leadership updates:

MEP Nuno Melo presented his candidacy for the CDS leadership:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1495121215513575425

CDS-PP: Nuno Melo ready to overcome “a path full of obstacles”, without receiving “a cent from the CDS

MEP Nuno Melo presented, this Saturday afternoon, his candidacy for the CDS leadership. In his speech, Melo said he will not "throw the towel on the floor" in the mission to elect, once again, CDS MPs, adding that Portugal needs CDS. He criticized and drew the differences between CDS and IL/CHEGA, labeling IL as defenders of "savage capitalism" and that CHEGA is to the right of the regime, thus saying that CDS needs to fill the void of humanism that IL and CHEGA don't represent. He added that the party is in deep financial troubles and that he, if elected, vows to not receive a salary as party leader. He also said he counts on all CDS members and hopes that many will return to the party. Shortly after, Miguel Mattos Chaves, a CDS member who ran for the leadership in 2016, announced he's also running, but he has no chance as in 2016, Mattos Chaves only got 1% of support.

The PSD National Council meeting ends with Rio being advised to propose a leadership ballot date in 20 days:

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1495166445600141319

PSD National Council approves marking an internal calendar within a maximum period of 20 days

The PSD National Council meeting was a calm and rather cold meeting. Held in Barcelos city, Braga, the PSD councillors heard Rio explain the reasons of the defeat last 30 January. Rio blamed that tactical voting on the left, the "fear campaign" orchestrated by the PS and the party's difficulty in winning the support of elderly voters. He also added that the growing number of pensioners and people living with Government support, makes these voters not interested in a change of government. However, many PSD members didn't liked Rio's explanations and asked for changes in the party's tone and strategy. In the end, the party's councillors approved a motion to advise the party's leadership to propose a leadership ballot date and call another National Council meeting to approve that date. Rio said he wants to leave during the early summer, and wants to do things calmly. Rio and his leadership team will now decide if they propose, or not, a leadership ballot date in the next 20 days.

[Mike88]

Turmoil in CHEGA continues: Party loses two more councillors as Ventura accuses them of "shaming" the party.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1495838358433587205

CHEGA removes political confidence from two councilors. One of them had already left the party

The internal tensions in CHEGA continue. Yesterday, Ventura removed his trust in 2 CHEGA councillors from Seixal and Sesimbra cities after these councillors negotiated local budgets with the incumbent CDU governments. Ventura accused these councillors of violating party rules by accepting pacts with "parties that have destroyed Portugal" and that they shamed the party. Since last September's local election, CHEGA has already lost 3 councillors and has now a total of 16, compared with the 19 they elected. There has been a lot of controversy surrounding the votes of several CHEGA councillors, and local party Assembly members, as many have been making deals with PS and CDU in order to pass local budgets.

At the same time, in the last weeks after the party's big gains in the general elections, there have been other internal disputes: just days after the general election, Ventura saw his party general secretary, Tiago Sousa Dias, resign because of "deep disagreements" between him and Ventura; and just a week ago, Ventura punished several CHEGA members in Braga district after many criticized the election of their own MP for Braga district. The deputy leader of the party in that district even announced she was leaving the party. 

[Mike88]

Overseas election rerun update:

Ballots have started to be sent to voters across Europe. Voters have to postmarked the ballots by 13 March, and only ballots the reach Portugal until 23 March will be accepted. In terms of in person voting, just 400 voters can cast a ballot in person.

However, there are concerns about turnout as many overseas voters are furious and frustrated by the counting debacle. The Interior Ministry is also urging voters to also send an ID card copy, otherwise the ballot will be rejected.

[Mike88]

PCP under fire for being the only party defending Russia and Putin:

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1496382097942011905

With the communist parties losing out in the West, there is a temptation to look to the cradle of this political project as a way of rebuilding it. But in Russia today Putin will not be the heir of this ideology, however much he is seen as one of the main opponents of US hegemony. This is the portrait made by two historians and a political scientist

PCP is being criticized for its position regarding the current Russia-Ukraine tension. All parties from left to right have condemned Russia and Putin for their actions, with the exception of PCP. The Communists sent a press release saying they are worried with the situation in the East, but they blame Ukraine for never following the Minsk agreement guidelines and for blocking any political solution in the Donbass region. They also accuse the US, NATO and the EU of a "dangerous strategy of tension and warmongering propaganda" against the Russian Federation.

This reaction, which was expected by the PCP, nonetheless is creating criticisms by the media and pundits that accuse the Communists of being "orphan" and that they continue stuck in their view that Putin is the "heir" of the USSR.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

PCP is being criticized for its position regarding the current Russia-Ukraine tension. All parties from left to right have condemned Russia and Putin for their actions, with the exception of PCP.

I am a little surprised that CHEGA (incidentally lol, their constant internal sh**tshows and bleedings of members is hilarious) did not take a position closer to the PCP's on the crisis in Ukraine, in all honesty.

[Mike88]

PCP is being criticized for its position regarding the current Russia-Ukraine tension. All parties from left to right have condemned Russia and Putin for their actions, with the exception of PCP.

I am a little surprised that CHEGA (incidentally lol, their constant internal sh**tshows and bleedings of members is hilarious) did not take a position closer to the PCP's on the crisis in Ukraine, in all honesty.

Well, in fact Ventura's close ties with Le Pen and Salvini would point to some kind of "soft" message regarding the current crisis in Ukraine, but CHEGA's statement said that Russia should resolve the issue via diplomacy, but that there are moments in history in which we need to defend our values not by the diplomatic way. Regarding their "internal problems", I'm of those who don't know if by December 2022, CHEGA still has its caucus intact. We'll see.

Also, and again regarding CHEGA, Ventura has been permanently banned from Twitter after being suspended 3 times. The reason for his last suspension from the social media page, that led to his ban, is unclear but it seems it's because of a tweet regarding Islamic immigration, where he warned that only his party understands the dangers of it. Ventura is considering suing Twitter.

[Mike88]

Overseas election rerun update:

Party leaders are holding campaign events in Portuguese communities across Europe:

- PSD leader Rui Rio is campaigning in the UK and France during the weekend. Rio will spend this Friday in London and end the weekend in Paris, holding meetings with Portuguese communities associations and contacts with PSD members in these areas;

- André Ventura, CHEGA leader, wants to "steal" the PSD MP from the Europe constituency and will do a campaign blitz by going to several European countries from Belgium and Spain to Switzerland, where CHEGA achieved a very strong result in the annulled election;

- Other parties will also do campaign events: CDS will have an event in Brussels to present their candidate, and CDU will have campaign events done by PCP members in these areas. BE is going to focus on social media while the PS will also have events, but no details were given.

[Mike88]

Also, and again regarding CHEGA, Ventura has been permanently banned from Twitter after being suspended 3 times. The reason for his last suspension from the social media page, that led to his ban, is unclear but it seems it's because of a tweet regarding Islamic immigration, where he warned that only his party understands the dangers of it. Ventura is considering suing Twitter.

For some unknown reason, Twitter has retracted its earlier decision and has reopened Ventura's account on the social media platform.

Regarding the ongoing reactions to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, PCP is continuing to be heavily criticized for not condemning Russia and blaming NATO and the US, and BE is also being a bit criticized for its ambiguity in also condemning Russia, as BE defends an immediate cease fire and the end of NATO's expansion.

In CHEGA, Ventura is strongly condemning Russia, saying he's by the side of the Portuguese government in the economic and military sanctions against Russia. However, there are some dissident voices within CHEGA, as one of Ventura's deputies in the leadership went to social media saying the Ukrainian government made a lot of mistakes and suggesting that they provoked Russia. However, the post has already been deleted.

[Mike88]

Trainwreck debate between Sérgio Sousa Pinto (PS) and António Filipe (PCP), who lost his seat on the 30 January election, regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine:

Sérgio Sousa Pinto, PS MP, accused PCP of having deliriums of Western conspiracies against Russia, accusing PCP of being pro-Putin and of suggesting that this is the result of the "US imperialist machiavellianism". António Filipe (PCP), who lost his seat in the 30 January election, interrupted Sousa Pinto several times saying that wasn't true, in which Sousa Pinto said that if Filipe was calling him a liar, then he will call António Filipe insane. Sousa Pinto went on to say that PCP was a vassal of the Soviet Union and is now a vassal of Putin. Clearly angry, António Filipe threatened to leave the debate.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: PSD to convene again in a National Council meeting on March 14 to vote on a ballot date.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1499546988261650434

PSD National Council meets on March 14 to schedule ballot and Congress

Rio's leadership team met, this afternoon, and decided to call a national council meeting for March 14 in order to set the timetable for the party's leadership ballot. The previous PSD meeting, 2 weeks ago, demanded that Rio called a second meeting in 20 days, and Rio's team decided to call a meeting one day after the deadline to issuing ballots in the Europe constituency rerun on March 13. However, the party's leadership has to propose a date, but so far, there are no leaks on possible dates and they will probably only revealed the proposed date during next week. Rio has stated he wants to leave the leadership by July, hinting that he could propose an early June date for the leadership ballot, and a congress in late June. We'll see.

Earlier in the day, Rio had a lunch with the Ukrainian ambassador in Portugal, Inna Ohnivets, and he announced that the PSD is in favour of admitting Ukraine as a candidate for EU membership. Ms Ohnivets has been meeting with several party leaders and office holders, from Costa to Marcelo, Moedas, Rio and Ventura, and has been asking for support for Ukraine's bid to be part of the EU.

P.S.: Sorry for the few updates. The issue is that because there's no government yet, the political scene here is basically stalled and there's basically no news on that front.

[Mike88]

Update on the rerun of the overseas vote: Overseas associations warn that ballots are not arriving to voters.

Associations of Portuguese Communities overseas are warning that ballots are not arriving to many voters across Europe. They acknowledge that some have received their ballots by mail, but that a large number is still waiting. The Interior Ministry says they have sent all the ballots, around 925,000, and that voters should be receiving them. They also report that as of now, only 1,389 ballots were returned. Overseas associations warn that ballots have to be postmarked by 13 March, in order to be accepted, and that many will probably not have the time to vote or collect their ballots.

At the same time, there seems to be a lot of anger in Portuguese voters overseas because of the counting mess, and many will not mail in their ballots.

[Mike88]

Rising energy prices: Costa announces cut in fuel tax to attenuate VAT hike.

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1501290634312921088?cxt=HHwWgMC9rZb409UpAAAA

Government cuts ISP to limit fuel increases

Facing massive hikes in fuel prices in the last week, PM Costa announced some measures to alleviate the cost to consumers. Many have been pressing the government to cut fuel taxes, and Costa announced that, after this Friday, the fuel tax will be cut in order to attenuate the VAT hike, meaning that if the State collects 5 cents in VAT, those same 5 cents will cut from the fuel tax. Costa said that this meassure will not reduce the final price and will only try to insure that prices will not go up due to taxes. The government will do a weekly update on this matter.

It's expected for next week, another big hike in fuel prices: a 18 cent increase for diesel and 12 cent increase for gasoline. But only on Friday there will be a final number.

Update: The latest update is that diesel could rise 25 cents and gasoline 15 cents, with the tax reduction measure already taken into account.

[Mike88]

Some updates on the political scene:

- The PSD is set to convene next Monday to decide a leadership ballot date. Today, the media is leaking the proposed dates by Rio: 4 or 5 June for the leadership ballot and a party congress on late June/early July. However, many in the party aren't happy with this timetable and preffer resolving the matter in May. Plus, some in the party are fed up with Rio dragging on his leadership and want to limit Rio's powers as leader, like the power to nominate names to the Council of State or select a caucus leader. Rio is worried that in the Monday meeting this could be voted. Regarding candidates, Luís Montenegro seems to be the favourite, but Miguel Poaires Maduro, former cabinet member during the Passos Coelho term, is considering a run. Carlos Moedas, Lisbon mayor, is also being pressured to run, but he has already said he will not run and in private is saying that the timing isn't right for it;

- Regarding the composition of Costa's next cabinet, to be sworn in on 29 March if nothing bad happens, again, in the overseas ballot counting, the media is beginning to leak some names: The current Economy minister, Pedro Siza Vieira, will became Foreign Affairs minister, António Costa e Silva, the head of the Portuguese Covid Recovery plan, will become Economy minister and António Sampaio da Nóvoa, 2016 Presidential candidate, is set to become Education minister. The most controversial pick, however, is Fernando Medina as Finance minister. Some argue that this is a forced rehabilitation and Medina is still quite mocked because of the whole "Russiagate" thing from last year;

- Mariana Mortágua, BE MP, is currently involved in a controversy. A magazine revealed that she received payments from a TV network for being a pundit while she was exclusively working as a MP. BE party rules say that their MPs have to be exclusively working in Parliament and are barred from accepting other outside payed jobs. Ms Mortágua has acknowledge that she indeed received payments from SIC TV and has apologized and announced she will return the money to SIC TV;

- PCP continues in the middle of heavy criticisms for their positions regarding the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war and a PSD MP from Setúbal filed a complaint against the PCP caucus leader João Ferreira. The complaint was sent to the Commission of Equality and Racial Discrimination and accuses João Ferreira of discriminating against the Ukrainians because of a quote in an interview Mr. Ferreira gave in which he said that "Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to incorporate Nazis into the armed forces". Mr Ferreira rejects the accusation, while the PSD MP, Nuno Carvalho, also challenges the PS to treat the PCP like they treat CHEGA;

- And regarding CHEGA, Ventura has imposed a gag law in the party's caucus. According to the decision, the 12 MPs of CHEGA are forbidden to talk with the media without the approval of the party's press office. The party wants to control dissident voices within the party as it is now growing in size;

[Mike88]

Crisis in BE: Party plans to fire people and close several headquarters.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1502291387554934788?cxt=HHwWiMC5hdeDm9kpAAAA

Legislative Elections 2022: Bloc advances with dismissals and closure of headquarters

The massive losses in last January general election are taking a big toll in BE. The media is reporting that the party is planning to cut costs that will force firing people and closing or merging regional headquarters. The party has to cut 60% of their costs and in terms of regional structures, it's expected that only regional branches in Lisbon, Porto, Setúbal, Azores and Madeira will be able to have their own structures, and the rest across the country could be merged with the 3 remaining in the mainland. However, this restructuring is being badly received in the party with some BE members accusing the leadership of lack of transparency in this process.

The left-wing in Portugal is completely on the ropes...

[Mike88]

Update on the rerun of the overseas vote: Almost 20,000 ballots returned so far.

This weekend, the in-person voting for voters overseas will be held. Just a tiny portion will be able to vote in person, around 400, as the overwhelming majority will send their ballots by mail. So far, 19,469 ballots have been returned.

However, there's a new problem. Overseas communities are warning that there's an error in the voting instructions: In the instructions pamphlets, it says that voters have to send their ballots postmarked by 12 March, but the Electoral Commission has announced they will accept ballots postmarked after 12 March if they arrive in Portugal by 23 March. Overseas communities are saying that this is creating a lot of confusion and that many voters will just not return their ballot. Adding to this, there's the anger and frustration of how the whole process unfolded.

[Mike88]

Turmoil in CHEGA continues: Party loses two more councillors as Ventura accuses them of "shaming" the party.

More exits from CHEGA: Party loses another councillor as a local party branch collapsed. The CHEGA-Moita local branch, Setúbal district, collapsed yesterday night when all local government member from the party left the party. CHEGA has now 15 councillors left, down from the 19 elected last September. Accusations of corrupt deals and that they are ignored by the national leadership are the main reason for this fallout.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership ballot: Rio proposes 28 May for the ballot day and a Congress between 1 an 3 July in Porto city.

Rui Rio will propose on the party's National Council meeting a leadership ballot on 28 May, with a possible 2nd ballot, if necessary, on 4 June. He will also propose a party congress for the weekend of 1 to 3 July in Porto city Coliseum. We'll see if the PSD councillors accept this timetable or will propose an alternative.

[Mike88]

First polling after the elections.

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %: (compared with the election results)

37.1% PS (-4.4)
31.7% PSD (+2.5)
  7.3% IL (+2.4)
  5.6% CHEGA (-1.7)
  4.5% BE (+0.1)
  4.3% CDU (nc)
  2.7% Livre (+1.4)
  1.4% CDS (-0.2)
  1.3% PAN (-0.3)
  4.1% Others/Invalid (+0.2)

Hypothetical scenario: Luís Montenegro as PSD leader and Nuno Melo as CDS leader

Vote share %: (compared with the election results)

36.5% PS (-5.0)
30.6% PSD (+1.4)
  7.2% IL (+2.3)
  5.3% CDS (+3.7)
  4.4% BE (nc)
  4.4% CDU (+0.1)
  4.2% CHEGA (-3.1)
  2.5% Livre (+1.2)
  1.3% PAN (-0.3)
  3.6% Others/Invalid (-0.3)

Poll conducted between 15 and 20 February 2022. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.08%.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership ballot: Rio proposes 28 May for the ballot day and a Congress between 1 an 3 July in Porto city.

Rui Rio will propose on the party's National Council meeting a leadership ballot on 28 May, with a possible 2nd ballot, if necessary, on 4 June. He will also propose a party congress for the weekend of 1 to 3 July in Porto city Coliseum. We'll see if the PSD councillors accept this timetable or will propose an alternative.

The PSD National Council meeting approved Rio's timetable for the leadership ballot. The proposal to change the date of the congress to June was rejected. Therefore, candidates for the PSD leadership have to present their candidacy until 16 May, and if a 2nd round is needed, it will be held on 4 June. Rio himself wasn't present in the meeting as he contracted Covid and is in isolation.

Luís Montenegro is expected to announce his candidacy in the next few days, according to the media.

[Mike88]

Overseas vote rerun update:

152 voters, out of 400, cast an in-person ballot last weekend. Compared with the annulled vote in January, there was an increase of 36 voters.

Regarding mail-in ballots, the Interior Minister announced that, so far, they have received 37,605 ballots. Ballots will be accepted until 23 March and will start being counted on the same day.