Florida 2022 Megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

IDK why people are acting like this will destroy Fried, she's a politican who can probably sense the Biden administration is not popular and she shouldn't tie herself to it.

Honestly if the FL Democrats were halfway competent they could have a real shot of dethroning De Santis by  running against his firebrand stunts and painting him as someone who cares more for their own ambition than the state. Red-baiting like getting rid of Disneys tax exemption might improve his national image, but it'll hit harder when taxes have to go up in Orange County and the regional economy takes a hit. Mobilize those affected by the regional economic instability as well as others who work in sectors at risk with a message that Desantis will sell them down the river to become president.

That's DeSantis's real weak point, and it's the reason many would argue Younkin was able to beat McAuliffe. It's also partly why GA's governorship is being so highly contested in what should be a very good yaer for Rs.

That being said I think either way their chances of winning this race are unlikely at best barring some very dramatic turn; instead they should work on building up infrastructure for when Florida is more winnable. Their recent performance in Miami and Southeast Florida generally was frankly pathetic in 2020, both in terms of turnout and actually persuading voters. Why do the black communities in Miami only have like 30% turnout!?

I feel like Dems have either given up on Florida or are doing all the wrong things to try and win it back. Yes, the state isn't as high of a priortity as it once was, but just ceding 30 EVs to the GOP seems silly, especially when you have the demographics and likely the votes to be able to win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's a rather bold take I have: DeSantis narrowly wins Miami-Dade but loses Hillsborough. I have the opposite being true for the Senate. Rubio wins Hillsborough but loses Miami-Dade.

What demographics do you think would be DeSantis/Demings or Crist/Rubio voters

DeSantis - Dem Sen would prolly be someone who can still stomach Rs on a state level, maybe for tax reasons but agrees more with Dem optics on a federal level. There are prolly some urban white voters like

Rubio - Dem Gov likely someone who likes folks with lower profile and perceived "moderacy" or generally votes GOP but doesn't like all DeSantis's shenanigans. These would likely be lower propensity voters who want more help economically and such.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/philammann/status/1524507986575691776?s=21&t=ueZbL4uJUZQ...

She would actually be a pretty strong canidate considering and could bring the race to Lean R in 2022. She would likely do defacto worse than Biden in a lot of white areas but she doesn't need to outperform with cubans by too much.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is good news. FL-27 is still Lean R but she was not gonna win gov (priamry or GE) and is prolly one of the best canidates on the D side for the district.

She holds a Trump + 6 2020 seat in the state Senate and has respectable wins in the past, though she's no electoral titan who's a shoe-win. A lot of this race will come down to how special (or not special) Trump's 2020 performance was. Salazar could've had the district easily locked down for the decade but she's become progressively more conservative, and while she did overperform Trump in 2020, some of that could've been she was facing Shalala.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is good news. FL-27 is still Lean R but she was not gonna win gov (priamry or GE) and is prolly one of the best canidates on the D side for the district.

She holds a Trump + 6 2020 seat in the state Senate and has respectable wins in the past, though she's no electoral titan who's a shoe-win. A lot of this race will come down to how special (or not special) Trump's 2020 performance was. Salazar could've had the district easily locked down for the decade but she's become progressively more conservative, and while she did overperform Trump in 2020, some of that could've been she was facing Shalala.

She holds a Trump +6 seat solely because the seat was up in 2018. She would have been cooked in 2020. Its likely r.

You could make the argument Trumps (and Salazar’s) performance was specific to the 2020 electorate. Both 2016 and 2020 are quite abnormal years in Miami so it’s a bit hard to tell.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is good news. FL-27 is still Lean R but she was not gonna win gov (priamry or GE) and is prolly one of the best canidates on the D side for the district.

She holds a Trump + 6 2020 seat in the state Senate and has respectable wins in the past, though she's no electoral titan who's a shoe-win. A lot of this race will come down to how special (or not special) Trump's 2020 performance was. Salazar could've had the district easily locked down for the decade but she's become progressively more conservative, and while she did overperform Trump in 2020, some of that could've been she was facing Shalala.

She holds a Trump +6 seat solely because the seat was up in 2018. She would have been cooked in 2020. Its likely r.

You could make the argument Trumps (and Salazar’s) performance was specific to the 2020 electorate. Both 2016 and 2020 are quite abnormal years in Miami so it’s a bit hard to tell.

It's a Trump (+1) seat with an incumbent who outperformed Trump by 7 points as the challenger. Likely R is being generous. Yes I know Taddeo is clearly a better candidate than Shalala but it simply does not matter here.

It’s a Trump + 1 seat that has voted D in every other statewide majour election iirc. Also if Tadeo had challenges Salazar in 2020 I guarantee you the over performance on Salazars part would’ve been smaller than 4

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is good news. FL-27 is still Lean R but she was not gonna win gov (priamry or GE) and is prolly one of the best canidates on the D side for the district.

She holds a Trump + 6 2020 seat in the state Senate and has respectable wins in the past, though she's no electoral titan who's a shoe-win. A lot of this race will come down to how special (or not special) Trump's 2020 performance was. Salazar could've had the district easily locked down for the decade but she's become progressively more conservative, and while she did overperform Trump in 2020, some of that could've been she was facing Shalala.

She holds a Trump +6 seat solely because the seat was up in 2018. She would have been cooked in 2020. Its likely r.

You could make the argument Trumps (and Salazar’s) performance was specific to the 2020 electorate. Both 2016 and 2020 are quite abnormal years in Miami so it’s a bit hard to tell.

It's a Trump (+1) seat with an incumbent who outperformed Trump by 7 points as the challenger. Likely R is being generous. Yes I know Taddeo is clearly a better candidate than Shalala but it simply does not matter here.

It’s a Trump + 1 seat that has voted D in every other statewide majour election iirc. Also if Tadeo had challenges Salazar in 2020 I guarantee you the over performance on Salazars part would’ve been smaller than 4

Hello? This is the Seat that belonged to Illena Ross-Lehtinen before she retired so it always had a Republican-lean!

Again Ros-Letihen was basically a god tier fit for the seat, was Cuban and quite moderate. She outperformed top of the ticket by insane amounts. By your definition a seat like WI-03 would be D leaning.

This seat prolly still leans R at least for 2022 but Salazar def shouldn’t take anything for granted

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is good news. FL-27 is still Lean R but she was not gonna win gov (priamry or GE) and is prolly one of the best canidates on the D side for the district.

She holds a Trump + 6 2020 seat in the state Senate and has respectable wins in the past, though she's no electoral titan who's a shoe-win. A lot of this race will come down to how special (or not special) Trump's 2020 performance was. Salazar could've had the district easily locked down for the decade but she's become progressively more conservative, and while she did overperform Trump in 2020, some of that could've been she was facing Shalala.

She holds a Trump +6 seat solely because the seat was up in 2018. She would have been cooked in 2020. Its likely r.

You could make the argument Trumps (and Salazar’s) performance was specific to the 2020 electorate. Both 2016 and 2020 are quite abnormal years in Miami so it’s a bit hard to tell.

It's a Trump (+1) seat with an incumbent who outperformed Trump by 7 points as the challenger. Likely R is being generous. Yes I know Taddeo is clearly a better candidate than Shalala but it simply does not matter here.

It’s a Trump + 1 seat that has voted D in every other statewide majour election iirc. Also if Tadeo had challenges Salazar in 2020 I guarantee you the over performance on Salazars part would’ve been smaller than 4

Hello? This is the Seat that belonged to Illena Ross-Lehtinen before she retired so it always had a Republican-lean!

Again Ros-Letihen was basically a god tier fit for the seat, was Cuban and quite moderate. She outperformed top of the ticket by insane amounts. By your definition a seat like WI-03 would be D leaning.

This seat prolly still leans R at least for 2022 but Salazar def shouldn’t take anything for granted

Salazar is as moderate as Ross-Lehtinen. She voted for the COVID Relief Bill at the beginning of 2021, she voted for the Jan 6th Commission, she voted for the Infrastructure Bill.

Now compare Salazars Record as a Congresswoman with the Record Annette Taddeo had as State Legislator in FL before joining the 2014 Crist Democratic Ticket. It was ultra progressive liberal as you can get.

Good Luck beating Maria-Elvira with that! Taddeo is a Socialist - Period!

The main difference is that while they may not be too different in terms of actual votes, Ross-Lehtinen was more vocal in her opposition to the GOP whereas Salazar feeds into most GOP talking points. It's funny though cause on her website she actually has issues dedicated to things such as Climate Change but you never actually hear her talk about that.

She'll likely win in 2022 but Taddeo was never a hyper-progressive, more of just a pretty generic D

[ProgressiveModerate]

Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus right now under DeSantis, highest in recent history.

He is losing in the Listener poll 51/48 Ha to Christ

It's not over but it's not over for Crist or DeSantis but DeSantis tied just like Vance is tied with Ryan is embarrassing in this Environment where acred wave is supposed to happen

Meanwhile, your candidate far-leftist liberal Charlie Crist ran $5.2 billion in debt and lost 832 000 jobs during his time as Governor and he raised taxes by $2.2 billion two weeks after he signed the Americans for Tax Reform pledge. Gas prices are skyrocketing and Florida has the 9th highest gas prices in the country as the average state gas tax is 42.5 cents per gal and the average gas price is $2.39 per gal. Yet Crist supported Sleepy Joe's decision to revoke Keystone XL, thus killing 11,000 jobs, and he supports the Green New Deal and the THRIVE Agenda even though gas prices are at the highest rate since 2014 and even though that agenda would cost $2 trillion, ban fracking and abolish fossil fuel. The winner of such agenda is Vladimir Putin. So a vote for Charlie Crist is a vote for more funding for Putin's war in Ukraine and for more Ukrainian blood.

And even with issues emerging like guns and abortion, Crist will be portrayed as a flip-flop as he first thought abortion is a personal issue and not a government issue and he supported a partial-birth abortion ban. In 2006, he said he would sign a bill that would ban abortion in Florida and promoted a culture of life. Now he supports abortion. He first said he supported Second Amendment rights and was not in favor of strict gun control but now supports gun control. And in a state that is increasingly becoming red, Crist has an F rating from the NRA. Not a D minus, not a D, an F. So Crist is running to the left of Bernie Sanders and wants to take the guns of all Floridians.

Florida has a story of not electing serial flip-floppers. That's why George W. Bush won Florida over John Kerry in 2004 and why Barack Obama won Florida over Mitt Romney in 2012. Charlie Crist is just too wishy-washy to be Governor.

While I think he's running a more moderate campaign compared to most Ds, I agree Christ is pretty much damaged goods and everyone sees him as more or less a generic D which doesn't bode well in Florida for Dems, especially in what is likely to be an unfavorable national environment.

At the same time, Christ isn't a super inspirational canidate that will have potential to supercharge minority turnout which Dems would need out of places like Miami and Jacksonville to win Florida.

While Florida's political geography may not be that extreme, it's a very polarized state with a lot of energized voters in both directions due to years of being a swing state. Because of this, being politically moderate really isn't super helpful in most of Florida; I'd argue that being more politically extreme helps hype up your side more than it costs votes in Florida.

[ProgressiveModerate]

New Florida Registration Numbers:

Republicans 5,135,749

Democrats 4,959,838

Minor Parties  255,510

No Party Affiliation  3,865,575

Republican Advantage: 175,911

https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

Democrats abandoning Florida. Democrats lost about 80,000 Voters in the last 3 Months in the Sunshine State.

It soon will become virtually impossible for Crist & Demings to win.

Voter registration numbers tend to be a bit iffy, especially since they can lag decades behind re-alignment in regions such as the panhandle. Still not a good sign for Dems but it really doesn't mean much unless one is actually seeing an acceleration in Republicans favor.

[ProgressiveModerate]

New Florida Registration Numbers:

Republicans 5,135,749

Democrats 4,959,838

Minor Parties  255,510

No Party Affiliation  3,865,575

Republican Advantage: 175,911

https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

Democrats abandoning Florida. Democrats lost about 80,000 Voters in the last 3 Months in the Sunshine State.

It soon will become virtually impossible for Crist & Demings to win.

Voter registration numbers tend to be a bit iffy, especially since they can lag decades behind re-alignment in regions such as the panhandle. Still not a good sign for Dems but it really doesn't mean much unless one is actually seeing an acceleration in Republicans favor.

When DeSantis was sworn in as Governor in January 2019 Democrats had a 280,000 Reg Advantage, at the Book Closings just before the 2020 that was cut to 136,000 or so and now Republicans, after taking the lead in Registration at the back end of last year are up 175K.

This is a Major Realignment in FL!

The registration advantage has been going in favour of the GOP for quite a while in Florida. Party registration isn't a very good indicator of a states politics at any given moment.

Also, re-alignment implies a majour change in coalitions whereas it seems like the GOPs gains have been mostly through growth and just a general increase in polarization. They're coalition is predominantly white, many retirees, and cubans as has been the case for a long time now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I personally don't think voter reg matters as much as people think because most young people register with no party affiliation but still lean democratic.

Nelson & Gillum won Independents by Double Digits in 2018 YET they still lost the State because the Party ID per Exit Polls was R+6 in Florida.

It is worth noting that in Florida, Republicans are far more reliable voters than Dems in general, especially in off years. Even if you want to make the argument Dems theoretically have the numbers to win without having to do insanely well with Independents, that just practically doesn't happen.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another factor to consider is in Florida you have a lot of retirees who VBM. In 2020 when Trump was trying to discourage VBM in most states, there's a reason he tried to encourage it in Florida. A lot of these numbers will be stuff we look back it in hindsight as either good or bad.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I am waiting on the hilarious excuses by the Crist Campaign in November. He will probably blame his loss on the Mar-a-Lago Raid which galvanized Republicans.

.... The Dem has an uphill battle regardless in November. They always have.

In a big State like FL Infrastructure is the KEY to winning and Democrats are nearly non-existent when it comes to that. And Charlie Crist is no Andrew Gillum. Gillum got a lot of help from National Democrats in 2018. DeSantis has also a huge Cash Advantage, 136M to 4.5M for Crist.

It's a bit ironic how in Florida of all places the cash advantage flips on it's head big time (though not necessarily surprising). The FL GOP as much as I despise them is a really solid state party that knows how to message and do voter outreach while still saying solidly by their ideals in a massive incredibly diverse swing-state.

The GOP in every other remotely competative swing state seems to have some serious problems rn.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does Val Demings have any serious chance against Marco Rubio? I'm guessing no?

Uphill battle for sure, but if central Florida can turnout in record numbers, which it did tonight, and maybe a little help from Marco’s lackluster campaigning, she may get within 3, enough to make him sweat profusely…She ran in the wrong year though. But she’s not a bad candidate. She will outrun Crist.

Uh didn’t FL-10 just have some really poor turnout despite the competitive primary? Most of the high turnout in central FL was in R areas lol

[ProgressiveModerate]

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1562452608765542400
Hello Charlie? This is not 2014 or 2018 when your State had more Democrats.

Calling out DeSantis Supporters "Haters" & playing the Hillary Clinton Deplorable Card sure will help you.

Does it change the trajectory though? It’s not like this is going to suddenly win over new people to Ron or vice versa. Now I personally think Crist is correct here, but it doesn’t move the needle. People who are voting for DeSantis are voting FOR him. People who are voting for Crist are voting AGAINST DeSantis by and large. The primary results alone prove that people wanted someone who can best beat Ron, which is probably not going to work here as it would in other states (trump v Biden)

And yet with no Major Statewide Primary on the Republican Side Republicans outvoted Democrats 1,7M to 1,5M

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1562548562139185154


If DeSantis is such a hated Human Being I would have thought D-Turnout to be even higher.

The Problem for Crist is he needs significant Crossover Support to win and comments like that will make it harder + he needs significant support from the NPA Voters (Gillum & Nelson won them by 10 Points in 2018).

Polls have shown DeSantis leading with Independents and now Democrats because of NY-19 and other metrics all of the sudden thinking they will change their mind.

It’s a closed primary, so of those who did vote in the Democratic primary, I’m saying most wanted someone they thought was electable, ie whoever is the best to beat Ron. Dems went with the opposite approach (establishment) as opposed to last time (progressive). Im not talking about raw numbers. I’m well aware of the Republican gains statewide. As far as the hatred argument goes, that’s a matter of opinion.

Regarding Establishment vs Progressive
Brad Coker, the Managing Director of the Mason-Dixon Poll of Washington D. C. who polls FL frequently said Nikki Fried, with the Abortion Issue taking more of a stage, would be the better Candidate simply because she is a Woman. Everyone knows who Crist is.

Honestly, Christ (unironically) just feels like someone Dems resort to when they get scared and don't know who to run.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hot-take I don't expect Desants to outperform trump that much, I think him winning by 6 points is probably his celling. People like to pretend Florida is a titanium R state rather than one of the closest states in the country with plenty of democrats.

I agree. Looking at the 2020 precinct map, there really aren't a ton of areas where an R could really overperform Trump much without being insanely strong overall or dramatic re-alignment. Especially in communities like Tampa and Jacksonville, Dem support as is is pretty stripped to just black and non-cuban Hispanic communities.

I'm still keeping this at likely R due to Florida's turnout dynamics in midterms, however, I'd be pretty shocked if DeSantis won by double digits especially if folks like Kelly and Fetterman are competitive.

[ProgressiveModerate]

DeSantis isn't winning by double digits in an R plus 3 state

By that logic, Rubio shouldn’t have won by 8 in the same year Trump won by only 1.

Rubio didn't go out of his way to become a polarizing fireband. Like there are 3 ways that Desantis outperforms Trump is by either getting a lot of Biden voters to vote for him, getting non-voter for him or hoping democratic turnout craters.

Which of these is likley ?

Most likely non-voters

Ironically non-voters in FL are voters you'd demographically expect to skew heavily D, so if this does turn out to be true, it'd be very imrpessive on DeSantis's part.

I think what's most likely if the GOP generally just does a better job at showing up allowing DeSantis a 7-8 point win, but he doesn't significantly improve on Trump's margins in many communities.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/trust-linked-gavin-newsoms-in-laws-made-contribution-desantis-pac

Tbf, we see children/relatives of GOP politicians publicly anti-endorse them all the time so this doesn't really mean much. I think it does show how even in these political families that are associated with a certain brand of politics, there can still be internal political divides.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's only 46/45 Rubio and 48/45 DeSathis aren't blowout numbers

Crist maynot win but we don't need the Governorship all pundits are predicting Ryan and Demings have a 50/50 chance over Crist and Nan W and Beasley, we will be watching OH, NC and FL Sen races and FL 15 and NC 13

You still don't get it. To win in Florida as a Democrat or have a chance to win you need to be at 48 % or above, what Gillum posted in 2018 throughout the entirety of the Campaign. And Crist & Demings are both at 45 %

All the Polls you mentioned are Democratic PUSH-POLLS who have a Democratic Agenda. We haven't seen one Independent Poll in Florida in 3 Months.

Like the User @Hollywood mentioned:
A) DeSantis never banned Masks from Schools, that is just a blatant lie by Democrats.
B) DeSantis never prohibted discussions about Womens & LGBT Rights. That is a total LIE by the Democrats.

538 has DeSantis with an 94-6 Chance winning the Election
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/florida/

538 gives Rubio an 88-12 Chance winning the Election
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/florida/

538 gives Tedd Budd 63-37 Chance of winning BUT look where Beasley is. Like Demings she is stuck between 42-45 %. That's not good enough to win in NC
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/north-carolina/

Finally 538 gives JD Vance a 74 % Chance of winning
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/ohio/
Whether you like it or not almost all of the Undecided Voters in Ohio are Blue Collar White Working Class Voters and they will come home to Vance eventually.

Generally a good rule is if on EDay the Dem is polling above 49.5%, they’re prolly favored whereas if they’re below 49.5% they lose. As EDay comes closer, both sides should gain a bit in the polls but there’s a HUGE difference between a Dem being at 47% and 50%. The only 2 competative Dems who are already at or close to the % they need are Fetterman and Kelly; we’ll see how that holds up.

Secondly, polls tend to be bad at picking up turnout dynamics. If turnout dynamics are lopsided in an unexpected way what I said above could be null.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's only 46/45 Rubio and 48/45 DeSathis aren't blowout numbers

Crist maynot win but we don't need the Governorship all pundits are predicting Ryan and Demings have a 50/50 chance over Crist and Nan W and Beasley, we will be watching OH, NC and FL Sen races and FL 15 and NC 13

You still don't get it. To win in Florida as a Democrat or have a chance to win you need to be at 48 % or above, what Gillum posted in 2018 throughout the entirety of the Campaign. And Crist & Demings are both at 45 %

All the Polls you mentioned are Democratic PUSH-POLLS who have a Democratic Agenda. We haven't seen one Independent Poll in Florida in 3 Months.

Like the User @Hollywood mentioned:
A) DeSantis never banned Masks from Schools, that is just a blatant lie by Democrats.
B) DeSantis never prohibted discussions about Womens & LGBT Rights. That is a total LIE by the Democrats.

538 has DeSantis with an 94-6 Chance winning the Election
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/florida/

538 gives Rubio an 88-12 Chance winning the Election
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/florida/

538 gives Tedd Budd 63-37 Chance of winning BUT look where Beasley is. Like Demings she is stuck between 42-45 %. That's not good enough to win in NC
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/north-carolina/

Finally 538 gives JD Vance a 74 % Chance of winning
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/ohio/
Whether you like it or not almost all of the Undecided Voters in Ohio are Blue Collar White Working Class Voters and they will come home to Vance eventually.

Generally a good rule is if on EDay the Dem is polling above 49.5%, they’re prolly favored whereas if they’re below 49.5% they lose. As EDay comes closer, both sides should gain a bit in the polls but there’s a HUGE difference between a Dem being at 47% and 50%. The only 2 competative Dems who are already at or close to the % they need are Fetterman and Kelly; we’ll see how that holds up.

Secondly, polls tend to be bad at picking up turnout dynamics. If turnout dynamics are lopsided in an unexpected way what I said above could be null.

I think Fetterman & Kelly will win.

Be honest: Do you really believe Ryan has a chance to beat Vance. From the Polling Data out of Ohio we have thus far it looks like the bulk of the Undecided Voters are Non-College Educated Blue Collar White Working Class Whites and those are Trump Voters.

No barring pretty extraordinary circumstances which would likely already allowed Dems a decent Senate and Housr majority. It may be closer than Rs would like though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/johnsonhildy/status/1567202130078978050?s=21&t=SnHN3iQ20...

I agree!

On the other side 100 % from Crists Ads have been negative.

This really seems like the reverse of a lot of places where Dems are the ones running the more "positive" campaign compared to Republicans. Yes you can attack the current administration but you also have to have a sense of optimism for the future and explain why folks should re-elect you if you want to win. That's exactly what DeSantis is doing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Personally, I hope Dems likely loss here will help combat the notion that the best way to win a governors race is to run a former governor, who in this case had many chances to win statewide but didn't. People like Christ and McAuliffe really lack charisma and yet the Dem establishment treats them like gods.

I would argue this is why Dems are doing so well in many of these key Senate races, their slate of candidates is relatively young, charismatic, and generally seem more down to earth, especially when compared to certain GOP candidates.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Personally, I hope Dems likely loss here will help combat the notion that the best way to win a governors race is to run a former governor, who in this case had many chances to win statewide but didn't. People like Christ and McAuliffe really lack charisma and yet the Dem establishment treats them like gods.

I would argue this is why Dems are doing so well in many of these key Senate races, their slate of candidates is relatively young, charismatic, and generally seem more down to earth, especially when compared to certain GOP candidates.

Democrats did this back in 2016 as well in the Senate Races. Nominating Ted Strickland, Evan Bayh and it did not work back then.

I would argue the difference is that Strickland and Bayh were just kinda seen as "default establishment" candidates even if they were younger.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1564950298346545152?s=21&t=WWM15TbkaUZ8_...

Awww, as if our majority wasn't close enough already. Really should stay till January. He's not going to win the governorship anyways.

I expect he would have been ordered to stay on if NY-19 and AK-AL had gone to the GOP, but since they didn't, him leaving is relatively safe.

Do you know in Impact polls Crist is down 50/47 and Demings down 50/48 that is danger🛑zone you think DeSantis is gonna win by 10 no he's not look at the polls me, wbrooks and Minnesota Mike post about FL DeSantis lead in one poll by 8 and that's not Impact

I should know I am 1/3 posting polls but wbrooks posted the FL poll

I don't Trust "impact polls" or whatever random org you cook up any given day.

DeSantis wins by 10, Rubio by 15.

I’m skeptical a 15 point Rubio win is even possible, especially since Black voters provide Dems a pretty hard floor and he isn’t getting that crossover support he saw in 2016 again with them.