2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are we looking at for final margin in GA? Biden by <5k?

If nearly 50,000 absentee votes are missing from the count, Biden should take the state by way more than 5,000.

Has the 50k ballots been proven at all yet by a reputable source?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there any evidence that there are actually 50k more absentee ballots out of GA?

[ProgressiveModerate]

My guess of AZ:

AP and FOX have both called it for Biden, and they're the ones with precinct level data, they have not retracted their calls, and seem quite confident. AP is generally pretty reliable and I don't get why Fox News would call if for Joe if they weren't sure, especially since they lean right overall.

One thing that makes the county results difficult is that the counties are so big, and in Maricopa for instance, there is a mix of D and R strongholds. The thing is, just with the county data, we don't necessarily know whether those ballots that have already been cast are from Phoenix proper, or some of the redder exurbs or suburbs, but they do. My guess is based on the precinct results, enough of the vote is still out of Phoenix for them to be able to call it for Joe, and most of the current vote is from the traditionally redder parts of Maricopa. That's my guess

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the odds Trump will end up winning AZ?

30%

What are the odds Trump will end up winning AZ?

20%

so 0%

Honestly it's impossible to know without seeing what patts of Maricopa have counted. But I assume Fox knows what they're doing from precincts.

This is exactly what I think too. AZ county's are so big, that when you have a county like Maricopa, you really don't know where in the county the vote is coming from. My guess is that there's a good amount of the vote still out in central Pheonix.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the odds Trump will end up winning AZ?

20%

I feel like Jessica's 30% estimate is a tad more accurate, but I could see it either way.

I'm guessing it's more like 10%. Gotta trust AP with precinct results. Maricopa county is so big that we don't know what votes have been counted and what are still going to come in.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Like I stated before about Arizona it's important to look at how the congressional districts are reporting. AZ-5 is at 95% and AZ-8 is at 91%, but AZ-7 is at 89% and AZ-9 is at 88%. Trump is running out of favorable territory in Maricopa County to gain votes.

Where do you see results by Cong district?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-house.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

[ProgressiveModerate]

Al Gross in now saying he thinks he will win, not sure if he actually believes that though

He's not really outperforming Biden, so prolly not.

[ProgressiveModerate]

When will the race be called?

estimates

If it's GA - 1-4am

If it's PA - 2-5am

If it's NV - tomorrow

In all honestly, no matter who finishes ahead in GA, we need to wait for military ballots and then it'll go to a recount, not that it will change the overall result of the election nationwide

[ProgressiveModerate]

Has anyone called GA-Sen as runoff?

I think NBC or MSNBC might’ve

[ProgressiveModerate]

Al Gross declaring victory is clearly the most insane thing said today.

Is there any rhyme or reason to this? Is he just being optimistic or annoying?

[ProgressiveModerate]

So Biden leads Trump +1,098 in Georgia. How many votes are expected to come out of Georgia, besides provisionals/military?

There is at least 8/9K out in GA from just regular votes (not provisionals/military)

Are these votes expected to skew Biden?

[ProgressiveModerate]

BTW, it seems like most of the remaining ballots out of Maricopa are from AZ-6, AZ-7, and AZ-9, so that's a goods sign for Biden.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So Biden leads Trump +1,098 in Georgia. How many votes are expected to come out of Georgia, besides provisionals/military?

There is at least 8/9K out in GA from just regular votes (not provisionals/military)

Are these votes expected to skew Biden?

Yes

So Biden should end up being fine in GA, and there's no way Perdue can get back to 50%?

[ProgressiveModerate]

By the way ...
What happened to our blue-avatar friends that were so enthusiastic about consistently posting in this thread yesterday?

Jessica
SirWood
SN
Buzz
7sergi9

Who else am I missing?

Tbf, Buzz has been a pretty fantastic poster this cycle (just Trumpy) and Sergi has had a good sense of humor in this thread.  

Yeah Buzz is fine, and seems like a very reasonable person even if I disagree with him on some political stuff. Throwing him onto the same list as SN and Woodbury definately isn't a fair thing to do. Jessica has also become a pretty good and reasonable poster too

[ProgressiveModerate]

My guess is the next Maricopa drop will skew Trump but only by mid or low double digits

[ProgressiveModerate]

What do we make of the fact that Minnesota voted to the left of the nation?

Gives me some hope about Ds narrowing the R's EC advantage in the future, especially since Trump seems to have invested more in MN than Biden.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why aren't the networks calling Nevada for Biden?

For some reason they seem to be actively looking for excuses to avoid putting Biden over the top. I don't think any of us are quite sure whether it's because of muh ratings (i.e. wanting to call the race at some time other than midday) or because they're afraid Trump will tweet mean things about them.

Prolly the former

[ProgressiveModerate]

is that a 306-232 election map uno reverse repeat I'm smelling?

Also; what's funny is WI may be the tipping point state again, and be decided by 0.8%

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol, now I'm freaking out about PA all over again

[ProgressiveModerate]

Are yall f#cking serious rn? Biden is the heavy heavy favorite to win PA.

We're just very reactionary to this kind of stuff. A drop in confidence from 99.9% to 99.8% feels like a drop from 100% to 50%

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would guess that we'll see the networks calls the race once the Allegheny vote comes in, which will put Biden's PA lead well over 0.5%.

I doubt it, if provisionals are GOP friendly and if there really are 100,000 of them they could cut into if not completely erase Biden's lead.

I don't think we'll have a call from PA until at least Monday.

They've been GOP friendly because they've come from rural areas. The vast majority of outstanding provisional are from urban centers, meaning they'll lean Biden.

Ok I feel better about PA now. That was a rollercoaster

[ProgressiveModerate]

Are we seriously gonna go 48 hours+ with no new calls!?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do you guys think Trump or Biden won more CDs?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking through the county level swings from NYT. A couple areas stand out (Latinos4Trump, Mormons coming home, trendz in southern Midwest and non-deep south, Blue Wall reforming, angry New England women, D.C. hates orange man)

Geez, though, the bottom really fell out in Colorado and the Atlanta metro for the GOP; I think it's safe to say that Colorado is blue for the foreseeable future, and the Republicans are clearly in freefall in Georgia. Well done, Stacey Abrams; really hope ATL isn't maxed out for Democrats quite yet. This should also be setting off alarm bells for the GOP, because if something like this were to happen in North Carolina the state is instantly light blue, although I'm not sure if the Democrats have as much room to grow there.

NC just seems like it's stagnating and won't really start trending either direction, which is annoying because Ds always seem to narrowly lose it. There's still plenty of areas of NC that both parties have to improve in, and they will likely largely cancel eachother out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Collin and Denton