2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not good at all, and the fact Atlas STILL hasn’t learned to not be an echo chamber is shocking.
After last night, I would expect at least a bit more caution.

The fact that Michigan was called for Biden I would think you a little more humble and aelf-aware, but apparently not.

The fact that Elliot county went for Trump by a greater margin might teach you a bit, but apparently not.

Did Alben Barkley sleep with your girlfriend or something? You have a problem.

Can we just focus on analyzing the results. We can disagree with eachother but we don't need to actively be trying to shut eachother down

[ProgressiveModerate]

Might not get any more calls tonight tbh

As of right now, I would say

Pennsylvania: Likely Biden, should overcome Trump's lead at this rate, and he has a bit of a cushion in case there's a batch of R-friendly votes

Arizona: Lean D

GA: Lean D

NV: Lean D because of the uncertainty

NC: Lean-Likely R

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/TimMurtaugh/status/1324176145416441857?s=20

I think the state is too close to call for either canidate at this point with confidence, unless FOX has or knows some data we don't know

[ProgressiveModerate]

What's interesting is the same people using this small data point to say AZ will be close think Trump will hold in GA and PA despite the current rate suggesting Biden will edge it in both states, PA maybe more than just edging it out, and that counting has been going on for much longer now in both states

[ProgressiveModerate]

Associated Press doubled down on Biden winning Arizona

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-race-and-ethnicity-mark-kelly-6841e27210770f59418bdc13a60ccec7

They definately have some data or know something we don't if that's the case. They seem way too confident otherwise.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There's about 20k mail-in votes out in Clayton too, which is an 85% Biden county with the votes that have already been counted

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

Around this. It depends on margins.

Does anyone know if we can push Perdue under 50?

Definately a possibility; Perdue is at 50.2% right now, meaning a 0.5-0.6% gap closure between him and Osoff should get him over the edge, and it seems like based on Biden’s current rates, Biden is already betting roughly 1% in the state

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

We don’t know. Fox News could have some weird agenda, but AP is pretty reliable, and they must either know something we don’t or don’t want to retract their call to draw attention to their reputation

[ProgressiveModerate]

Manchin haters are ridiculous. He is the Democratic MVP for how much he votes with the party. You can't compare him Tammy Duckworth, you have to compare him to what his replacement would be in WV. When you game that out, he probably votes 40-50% more Democratic than his hypothetical replacement would. No other Democratic senator provides that value (maybe Tester could come close).

I really should make a Senator WAR chart. I’m pretty sure Manchin and Tester are obvious, but Baldwin and especially Brown are amazing too.
On the GOP side, Collins and Toomey definitely top the list.
Worst Dem is almost certainly Feinstein but Sinema may officially be below replacement if Arizona is trending as quick as it looks.

Ron Johnson too at this point

Biggest drag for the GOP has to be Murkowski and Romney, but they are both from interesting states

[ProgressiveModerate]

Accoding to NYTimes:

Richard Fausset, in Atlanta 8m ago

Gabriel Sterling, Georgia’s statewide voting system implementation manager, said that 61,367 outstanding mail-in absentee ballots remained uncounted. The state aims to finish its count by noon.

Biden just needs to net 20k which seems doable

[ProgressiveModerate]

Both parties need a wake up call

NY is a red state without NYC
IL is a red state without Chicago

CA is to the left of NY and IL......

GA is going Blue, and Republicans put to trash gay marriage and abortion in the garbage.

Martina White and Nicole Malliotakis should be the template for the GOP going forward, Northern ethnic law and order, not Marsha Blackburn's rigid social conservatism.

What is going on in New York? Biden's margins look pathetically small for a Democrat, different websites have different figures (I have no idea why) but the Guardian has him only up by 12.7%. Nassau, Rockland and Dutchess are red, Trump's over 60% in Staten Island, over 30% in Queens and over 25% in Brooklyn. Have the postal votes just not been counted yet or is Trump really doing abnormally well in his former home state?

As for the future of the GOP, I 100% agree. Bible bashing and white grievance politics are a dead end for them long term, building on their gains with non-white voters (many of whom are not really liberal at all) is likely the way forward.

VBMs not counted.

These NY margins will significantly improve for D's in NY. They returned over 1.2 VBM ballots.

VBM took decades to count for primaries only.

Have no idea what's going on in NJ though. They zoomed 2.9M counted VERY fast, and now they've basically stopped despite a lot still being out

NJ said they aren't counting in person ballots for several days

[ProgressiveModerate]

How are we feeling about PA, GA, NV, and AZ?

PA: Likely Biden, at this rate he should pass Trump’s total with a cushion

AZ: Likely Biden. AP prolly knows something we don’t but both they and Fox News seem confident with their call

GA: Lean D, seems like Biden will pull out a squeaker and Perdue will end up below 50%

NV: Lean D, lots of ambiguity

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just want to remind everyone; it’s not over till someone is over 270, but based on the current results, Biden seems favored

[ProgressiveModerate]

Again, can we please stick to analyzing results instead of just dooming and getting into irrelevant arguments. We can disagree with each other’s analysis, but let’s disagree respectfully and stick to the topic at hand.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=4owr

Does this seem like a fair map of where things stand?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Please finish counting the votes in this century!

Is this place just a pro-Biden circlejerk or is there a legitimate chance of him winning all the remaining states?

He seems favored in all but NC and AK

[ProgressiveModerate]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Don’t forget Florida

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1324434835105030151

Fox tripling down on Arizona

Good for them.

Wonder what the precint results must say? There must still be some out from Phoenix proper or smtg

[ProgressiveModerate]

What about Military ballots in GA?

[ProgressiveModerate]

A few of the freshmen democrats losing is understandable given Trump was at the top of the ticket. Donna Shalala and Mucarsel-Powell however had no business losing. Democrats need to get some strong candidates and get these seats back in 2022. Even in a Biden mid-term, they'll be able to pick them back up.

Though these seats may look totally different in 2022, especially since FL is netting a district or two. Never underestimate the Rs ability to gerrymander

[ProgressiveModerate]

This whole thread is just incredible...

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1324445099430940673?s=20

DMP was in tears during the call.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1324445867663908870?s=20

I'm not sure about generally blaming the "liberal wing" of the party, but you have to admit their branding is God-awful. Progressives talk about how popular their ideas are, but progressives are often the ones that come up with these awful catchphrases. "Defund the police" is a guaranteed vote-loser, even if police reform is popular. Calling themselves "Democratic socialists" is a vote-loser, even if progressivism can be popular. I don't even understand that one, seeing as how they are social democrats at their leftmost.

This is clearly a problem with the Democratic Party in general, judging by the Florida minimum wage thing. The party needs rebranding before 2022/2024 (and this is coming from a moderate establishment™ dem who loves Pelosi)

Eh, I think there's nuance though. Joe Biden way end up winning 300 EVs in the highest turnout in decades. There *are* issues but it looks like Biden also ended up doing a lot of things right.

It’s clear that most liberal policies have the support of a large majority of the people, but the messaging from the party is pretty bad. Something needs to change. For the record, I’m definitely not saying that we should hand over the party to AOC, just switch up the leadership within.

I also think many Democrats with progressive policies come off as aggressive sometimes, even if they don't mean to be.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is it more or less guarenteed that Perdue will go to run off at this point?

[ProgressiveModerate]

GA is now 9k

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can someone give me a straight forwards answer on how many ballots are left in GA?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Curious; is it possible for say Hazel and Perdue to merge their votes in GA? Same with Loefeller and Collins?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't like Ivanka but it's clear that she the least crazy person in the immediate Trump family. She's the only one out of her dad and brothers that has not tweeted about phantom "voter fraud".

I was extremely disappointed, but not surprised, she went back on her pro-choice stance.

Good