2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Looking at you, Jim Wells County!

Are you surprised by how Texas turned out? Cornyn won easily, with a almost-identical margin and percentage to what he got in 2002 and 2008, and Trump also won the state without difficulty. Most polls seemed to indicate that Texas was a tossup at the presidential level and a potential upset for Senate.

Something I'm curious about but haven't dug into numbers to look at: if Biden had gotten HRC levels of support from Hispanics, would he have won Texas?

He prolly still would've narrowly lost it. The metro areas swing like 13 points to Biden, but outside that, he didn't have too many other impressive swings towards him.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At this point, it is safe to call Nevada and Pennsylvania for Biden, and North Carolina, Alaska, and Maine's second district for Trump.  

North Carolina???

Yes, North Carolina.  Trump's lead there hasn't budged since election day.  

Because they already said they won't produce anymore results until the absentee deadline, which is Nov. 12.

While no one was looking, NC just updated 117 votes a few minutes ago on NYT. That's the first update since Wed morning.

Seems very unlikely but it would be funny if Biden somehow eeks out NC too

[ProgressiveModerate]

Matt Stevens (NYT): Officials in Maricopa County, Ariz., expect to release tens of thousands of newly recorded votes around 9 p.m. ET. The remaining votes there will be key to deciding a tight race.

Hopefully that will be enough to call AZ and therefore NV.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone post the map with Atlas colors yet? Well here it is:

No one can convince me the map wouldn't look better with Biden winning North Carolina instead of Georgia.

Yeah, it does look way better. But the way I see it, Georgia sticking out so blatantly is like how Minnesota did in 2016. It's yet another mirror of that map. So for that reason I've grown to accept it.

I kind of like having islands in maps personally

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do you think it's possible that they're not calling Nevada yet because that would force Fox into a call, meaning they would be calling the election first. Fox cannot call Nevada because they know they probably jumped the gun on Arizona. The minute they all call Arizona I can see them all calling Nevada very quickly after across the board, so they're all calling at a similar time and keeping their viewership.

Idk if it’s necessarily because Fox jumped the gun on AZ; they have more precinct data than CNN and us which goes a long way when you have vague counties like Maricopa. CNN just doesn’t have the data to be able to call AZ, and they can’t call it based on FOX’s call since they don’t know if they jumped the gun or not.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also; why can’t CNN and other networks just get the precinct data FOX has?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324896264677416966

And the first to win 75,000,001, and 75,000,002

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden saying loud and clear THIS IS A MANDATE.

Mandate for what?

Not Trump?

For actual leadership, listening to science and doctors, and making decisions on something other than impulse.

Cry harder.

I mean Biden won and he does have a mandate for being president, Im just saying it doesn't look like a mandate to actually pass D leaning policy? Guess it depends on GA runoffs.

Honestly I think no matter who wins the GA runoffs we'll be ok. If Dems win them and get a "majority", then they'll be able to strait out pass their legislative agenda

If the GOP keeps the majority it'll be interesting to see how they behave. I think it's a real opportunity for both parties to be forced to find common ground with 2022 looming around the corner.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It seems fairly ridiculous to me that some networks have called Arizona but not Nevada or Pennsylvania.  I think Arizona is the least certain of the three by far.

The ones who have called it though are the ones with the most detailed data. I just have to trust that data knows what they're talking about, and to them, the precinct data shows essentially no realistic path for Trump to win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/benyc/status/1325096265911324678

Seems like the remaining Maricopa vote is from AZ-6 and AZ-9

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/benyc/status/1325096265911324678

Seems like the remaining Maricopa vote is from AZ-6 and AZ-9

If that's the case then Trump probably shouldn't be able to do much better than about 53 or 54% here, right?

That's what one would think

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is annoying. It's not enough to call the state for Biden but also not enough for Trump to have a good chance of winning the state

[ProgressiveModerate]

So was the FOX news and AP call of AZ premature or do they really know something we don't know?

[ProgressiveModerate]

So was the FOX news and AP call of AZ premature or do they really know something we don't know?

The call was probably premature, but it's looking like it'll be correct.

According to AP, AZ-7 only has 70% in, while NYT claimed >98% in. Not sure who to trust. 210k votes seems pretty low for a House district, but AZ-7 always tend to have lower turnout

[ProgressiveModerate]

mj lost but you get the idea lol

Just gotta say that House is really nice

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm thinking, why not appoint Susan Collins to some cabinet position and snatch that senate seat?

I remember Bush 43 tried to do that. But it didn't work.

I think Trump also tried to do that with Manchin

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is it possible that Arizona ends up closer than Georgia at this point? When and where will the next big batch of ballots be released?

Georgia isn’t happening get over it






/s

Where exactly is Trump going to net 7.5k votes from?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325918992490434562

That "Trump +8" in Wisconsin is pretty stunning, even by the standards of polling (which is obviously an imperfect science).  

The RV polls of WI were always tighter. Unreliable voters in rural white areas are less likely to have educational attainment, and therefore skew more R. Most of the states where the polling error was more normal like CO or VA had big cities.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone else notice how in states like NC and OH, most of the outstanding vote is from D metros? Biden is obviously not going to comeback and win OH, and NC looks unlikely, but I expect them to tighten a bit.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sad it came to this, but a good result none the less:

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1326292493852422144?s=20

Stop posting suppression polls!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bruh wtf is dis, Biden didnt win VA because of fraud LMAO

I got it from the Predictit comments section. A lot of the MAGAs there are pissed off.

I LOLed at that map. Giving all but one of the competitive states to Trump? Hilarious. Red VA? Icing on the cake.

Funny how there’s no detected fraud in “crazy California”

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329054683441278977

Ah FL gets more so irked!

[ProgressiveModerate]

If there was fraud anywhere, it would likely be in Florida, there no reason why this state swung so heavily towards Trump while the rest of the country swung away

TBF, the swings we saw in FL were correlated with many other parts of the country; rural majority-minority areas swung towards Trump alongside some urban Hispanic voters, while Biden improved in suburbs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Margin map so far of the certified results.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Current map of certified results