2020 Poll Hype Thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/dparkermontana/status/1315105575907196929

THANK YOU! I want more MT - SEN polls more than anything

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like we're all getting our hopes up. Polling has been pretty bad for the GOP this entire cycle. I think we could see some Trump - 12 polls in the Midwest, and some Biden leads in the sunbelt states like TX, but we'll just have to wait and see. As someone else pointed out, this prolly also spells out bad news for the GOP in the senate, so maybe a good poll for Ds in one of the fringe senate seat in red states that haven't gotten much polling.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NYT/Siena has announced more polls for this week:

- Michigan and Wisconsin tomorrow at 1 PM ET
- Alaska, North Carolina, and South Carolina later in the week

Previous NYT/Siena poll of MI (from June) had Biden 47%, Trump 36%. Their most recent WI poll (mid-September) had Biden 48%, Trump 43%. Hoping for far fewer undecideds in both.

For some reason, all the NYT polls this cycle have had an annoyingly high number of undecides, and that will likely be the case in these new polls too

[ProgressiveModerate]

NYT/Siena has announced more polls for this week:

- Michigan and Wisconsin tomorrow at 1 PM ET
- Alaska, North Carolina, and South Carolina later in the week

Previous NYT/Siena poll of MI (from June) had Biden 47%, Trump 36%. Their most recent WI poll (mid-September) had Biden 48%, Trump 43%. Hoping for far fewer undecideds in both.

For some reason, all the NYT polls this cycle have had an annoyingly high number of undecides, and that will likely be the case in these new polls too

Exactly lol .
Watch New York Times have it 44-40 Trump in South Carolina

Or Trump 42-38 in AK, with Sullivan up 41-36. If either their AK or SC poll have more than 10% undecided, I'm going to be mad unless someone is at 48% or higher because it's a waste of what could be a great poll.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol. I told ya'll all this hype was misplaced. We'll likely get some good Biden polls later today, which are in line with what we've been seeing, but I doubt we're going to get a high quality poll that shows Biden up in SC, MT, or AK, or with a solid 5% lead in TX.

I could see maybe like a SC, KS, or MT senate poll with the D leading, but that wouldn't be a shock, it would just be a more useful data point since these senate races have had so few polls for their competitiveness.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol. I told ya'll all this hype was misplaced. We'll likely get some good Biden polls later today, which are in line with what we've been seeing, but I doubt we're going to get a high quality poll that shows Biden up in SC, MT, or AK, or with a solid 5% lead in TX.

I could see maybe like a SC, KS, or MT senate poll with the D leading, but that wouldn't be a shock, it would just be a more useful data point since these senate races have had so few polls for their competitiveness.

Its literally 9:30 on Monday morning. We still don't know what they were talking about, yet you seem assured that it's never coming

I don't doubt new polls will be coming, but I don't think they're going to be all that different from what we've already seen.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tied on the presidential level
Tillis +2

Kinda doubt that considering the national environment just got 4 points worse on the national level, there’s no reason NC would swing the opposite way, especially since NC has so many voting groups that cancel each other out

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trafalgar has PA with Biden +2

This thing ain’t over yet. If Trump can keep PA he will win re-election.

If only Trafalgar, Trump's most favorable pollster that LITERALLY inflates his numbers as part of their methodology shows Trump behind in PA, his chances of winning the state are very very low.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's another chance for everyone who wanted NYT/Siena to poll Kansas last time:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1316022436559679489

Have to go with MT, I’m sorry.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Optimum & Guardian, head to head Biden +17 (57-40).

You really believe these polls? lol gtfo

Literally not a single insane person on this forum thinks Biden will win by 17%, but the fact that the good outliers for Biden are +14-17, while the outliers that favor Trump are +4-7% spells very bad news for Trump beacuse it signifies a change in the national environment towards Biden regardless of how accurate the polls themselves are in the margin

[ProgressiveModerate]

Optimum & Guardian, head to head Biden +17 (57-40).

You really believe these polls? lol gtfo

Literally not a single insane person on this forum thinks Biden will win by 17%, but the fact that the good outliers for Biden are +14-17, while the outliers that favor Trump are +4-7% spells very bad news for Trump beacuse it signifies a change in the national environment towards Biden regardless of how accurate the polls themselves are in the margin

RCP better not include that garbage in their aggregate.

Even RCP has Trump +10 RN. Also; just beacuse it's an outlier doesn't mean it's inherently bad; it's just inaccurate. You should include the outliers that are bullish on Trump and the ones that are bullish on Biden to create a well rounded polling average

[ProgressiveModerate]

Really hoping we start getting some more high quality state and senate polls. ME-Sen needs another high quality poll pretty urgently, and more MT, AK, and SC polls will be nice. Even though NYT is polling AK-Sen, I'm pretty sure the poll will have like 20% undecided or smtg and be Sullivan 42-38, which isn't very helpful and a waste of a great poll. I want an AK-Sen poll from a firm that actually pushes people because thus far all the senate polls out of the state have too many undecides

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump really only needs FL and PA, both of which are getting much closer. It’s your funeral, I suppose.

Biden's lead has actually grown slightly the last few weeks from 6% to 7%

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump really only needs FL and PA, both of which are getting much closer. It’s your funeral, I suppose.

Is the margin in PA getting closer?

Recent PA poll, Biden +2. I’ll take that heading into the election should it hold.

Give it up, Biden leads by 7+ in every recent high-quality PA poll. Cherry-picking low-quality polls that *still show Biden with a lead* isn't going to help the incumbent President who's badly trailing in the state most critical to his re-election.

According to my raw polling average Biden leads by 50.1-43.4 currently in PA

[ProgressiveModerate]

So we have a Monmouth-AZ poll coming today....anything else?

SC from NYT

Bet it'll have like 20% undecided in the senate, and therefore, pretty useless

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump really only needs FL and PA, both of which are getting much closer. It’s your funeral, I suppose.

Is the margin in PA getting closer?

Recent PA poll, Biden +2. I’ll take that heading into the election should it hold.

Give it up, Biden leads by 7+ in every recent high-quality PA poll. Cherry-picking low-quality polls that *still show Biden with a lead* isn't going to help the incumbent President who's badly trailing in the state most critical to his re-election.

According to my raw polling average Biden leads by 50.1-43.4 currently in PA

Which is consistent with Biden +8 nationally.
The other state polls are also consistent with Biden +8 nationally.

Current state polling suggests more of a Biden + 9 national average when calculating the Swiss from 2016

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any minute now...

I’m going to be very happy if the undecideds are below 12%, especially in the senate race

[ProgressiveModerate]

Feels like we're overdue for an A-rated poll out of Texas. Last one was in September.

I agree.

But between high early voting, high registration numbers & an electorate that seems to change demographically every day, I don't think pollsters have a clue what Texas is gonna look like this November

Texas is a new rapidly changing swing state that has a huge population and many different cities and communities throughout the state. I really don't really pollsters really know how to poll TX yet.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What is with the lack of polls the last few days!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Probably a narrow Trump lead, but Emerson had been very unpredictable.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the NYT national poll has more or the same % of third-party/undecided as last time (10%) it'll be a little ridiculous. They've received a lot of criticism over not pushing undecideds so hopefully they push a little more.

Honestly, the undecided problem is more of an issue downballot for me, especially since this may very well be the last high quality polls of MT and KS senate before the election. They tend to have like 8-10% on the Presidential level which isn't ideal but acceptable, whereas in the senate races their undecides tend to be more like 16% which is just unacceptable.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The last ECU poll had Biden +3 (50-47) but Tillis +1 (47-46)

My guess is that was a noise poll, since pretty much every other poll shows Cunningham running even with Biden (at least in terms of margin, and sometimes usually % in polls that push undecideds) at worst, and ahead of Biden at best.

[ProgressiveModerate]

http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/20/co-biden-51-trump-43/

COSEN poll coming from RMG Research/PoliticalIQ later.

Nice, but I would prefer to get more senate polls from MT, KS, AK, and those other fringe seats for the Democrats. CO-Sen polling has been extremely consistent for Ds, with basically every poll showing D + 8-10, with that one +14 poll.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1318979437073977344

Guesses?

Maybe TX. NYT tends to do states that don't get enough polls.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1318979437073977344

Guesses?

Maybe TX. NYT tends to do states that don't get enough polls.

PA or IN

Those are both possibilities as well; they haven't really polled the rust belt recently (unless we're counting IA)