Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Hope For A New Era]

Lean D as of now.

As we saw in Kansas, even in a state with strongly opposite partisanship, it's hard to get people to vote against an incumbent candidate for whom they will answer "approve" in polls. Beshear, like Kelly, has never been below 50% approval his entire time in office.

[Hope For A New Era]

Even after the COVID crap?

What COVID crap? He was massively popular during COVID. One poll had him at 81% approval, second only to DeWine. You could even argue his continuing popularity since then has been a momentum phenomenon from that (see DeWine). It was his standout moment.

[Hope For A New Era]

there's no way he is going to win by that much

Imagine if he does though, imagine! Kentucky bellwether, manifest it!

[Hope For A New Era]

Latter wasn't elected in the first place though and just had a few months in the job. That said, I have little doubt Colyer would have won the GE.

I wouldn't be so sure. Colyer was Brownback's lieutenant governor. He was never viscerally disliked the way Brownback and Kobach were, but it's not at all hard to tie them together in a campaign, and Kelly is a very strong candidate. It would have been closer, but I could easily imagine an alternate-universe Kelly-Colyer 2018 looking very much like Kelly-Schmidt 2022.

[Hope For A New Era]

The Kentucky Bellwether has spoken!

We are realigned.

[Hope For A New Era]

Beshear +4

Prediction remains Beshear +4.

I will now accept my accolades.

[Hope For A New Era]

Beshear +4

Prediction remains Beshear +4.

I will now accept my accolades.

KY-GOV: Beshar (D)+4
MS-GOV: Reeves (R)+7
PA Supreme Court: McCaffrey (D)+6
Ohio abortion: Yes+10
Ohio marijuana: Yes+15
Virginia House: 52 D / 48 R (net D+4)
Virginia Senate: 23 D / 17 R (net D+1)
New Jersey Assembly: 48 D / 32 R (net D+2)
New Jersey Senate: 24 D / 16 R (R+1/no change from last election)

I said it first!

[Hope For A New Era]

If Beshear is to become the nominee in 2028, he needs to have credibility with black voters. That goes dor anyone who wants to be nominated. They're the bellwether in national Democratic primaries.

I'mnot saying he can't, just that it's something to seriously consider if last night does inspire him to become a national candidate down the line.

I don't want Kamala to run in 2024 or 2028, but if she does, I don't think anyone can doubt that he's the ideal running mate for her.