Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[ReallySuper]

Pretty remarkable that Kelly Craft is polling so poorly given that she's had the airwaves to herself and has been blanketing the state with positive spots.

considering her "positive spots" center around building a wall along the southern border to keep the tennesseeans out, i think i understand why she's not winning over many voters:

'

Ya'll think this might be another Laura-Kelly esq situation where a lot (but not all) of his rural crossover support erodes but be squeezes a few extra points out of greater Louisville, greater Lexington, the Cinci Burbs, and Bowling Green?

Also, 4 years of population shifts is prolly a slight net to Beshear in KY, but hard to say.

Whether this results in a win or loss is hard to say, especially since KY is a lot more rural than KS.

beshear was up +8 against bevin a year out in 2018 and it narrowed to +0.4 by election day. i think his support in rurals will definitely narrow again, especially if cameron is the nominee, but it's also different from kansas or 2019 bc beshear has pretty strong support in every region rn according to that poll. he's garnered a reputation as an effective crisis governor not just from covid but also from responding to the december 2021 tornadoes in western ky and the floods in eastern ky last summer, which will probably help him in both those areas. i think if anything louisville/the bluegrass/NKY will be the main challenge for beshear, not in terms of margins, which will be as high if not higher for him this time around, but in terms of turnout. ppl were very energized in 2019 bc everyone in these areas (especially teachers) hated bevin, but he obviously cant rely on that to get the numbers he needs to turn out again in his main urban & central ky democratic bases. but we also have expanded early voting which could help turnout as well...

granted given the republican primary hasnt even played out yet there's still a chance that beshear could coast to reelection in november (relatively speaking anyway) if there's a lackluster or just outright bad (looking at you kelly craft) nominee, or even if a good nominee is harmed more than helped by "winning" a nasty primary fight.

[Pollster]

Pretty remarkable that Kelly Craft is polling so poorly given that she's had the airwaves to herself and has been blanketing the state with positive spots.

considering her "positive spots" center around building a wall along the southern border to keep the tennesseeans out, i think i understand why she's not winning over many voters:

I actually hadn't seen any of her ads yet (just the amounts she's been spending) and now that I have it's pretty obvious what the issue is. She is barely more authentic talking about Republican red meat issues than Mehmet Oz was. The "if you're a drug dealer, I'm coming for you!" bit verged on parody.

[Skill and Chance]

Even after the COVID crap?

Surprisingly, it's not that big an issue to everyone. You might need to realize that to avoid disappointment.

Trust me, we won't forget.

Perhaps the reason your majority is so silent is because it isn't a majority.

Anyway, what I thought was interesting with that poll was the approval breakdown by region:

https://twitter.com/malarkeyfree/status/1618668315983101953

The regional approval resembles the abortion amendment more than his 2019 map.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a long way til Eday but it's Tilt D, Appalachian polls overstated TMac, Ryan numbers at this pt on Eday but Beshear is at 50

I think it's gonna be more like 52/49

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pretty remarkable that Kelly Craft is polling so poorly given that she's had the airwaves to herself and has been blanketing the state with positive spots.

considering her "positive spots" center around building a wall along the southern border to keep the tennesseeans out, i think i understand why she's not winning over many voters:

Holy sh!t is that a laughably bad ad! Secure the state border? And that little "threat" to drug dealers at the end...LMAO.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm late to the party in commenting on the Mon-Dixon poll, but I sure hope that holds up. At the very least it suggests that Beshear has room to fall over the campaign because there's no way he is going to win by that much. And that's not just for the sake of Beshear being re-elected over a whack-job but also because I hope Kentucky can retain its predictive streak of electing a Governor of the same party that wins the next presidential election. A lot of bellwethers and predictive indicators have lost that status over the past few election cycles (like Valencia and Vigo Counties) but I want this one to maintain that status.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm late to the party in commenting on the Mon-Dixon poll, but I sure hope that holds up. At the very least it suggests that Beshear has room to fall over the campaign because there's no way he is going to win by that much. And that's not just for the sake of Beshear being re-elected over a whack-job but also because I hope Kentucky can retain its predictive streak of electing a Governor of the same party that wins the next presidential election. A lot of bellwethers and predictive indicators have lost that status over the past few election cycles (like Valencia and Vigo Counties) but I want this one to maintain that status.

It's a MXDX poll that's why Rs aren't saying much, this same poll had Paul and Desantis up 60)40

[Hope For A New Era]

there's no way he is going to win by that much

Imagine if he does though, imagine! Kentucky bellwether, manifest it!

[Progressive Pessimist]

there's no way he is going to win by that much

Imagine if he does though, imagine! Kentucky bellwether, manifest it!

It would definitely be impressive. We can only hope.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

there's no way he is going to win by that much

Imagine if he does though, imagine! Kentucky bellwether, manifest it!

It would definitely be impressive. We can only hope.

Just wait for Oct we should know if there is an Impeachment inquiry Docugate isn't over Hillary wasn't exhonerated she was admonished by FBI and Lost Biden hasn't been fully Investigation yet

An Impeachment inquiry by Oct will hinder Beshear chances I am not rooting for RS but we all know what happened to Strickland and Ryan and TMac in Appalachian when they had early leads they Lost

We gotta hear from Trafalgar if there is uniform between Trafalgar and rest of polls they are right but if Trafalgar is way off like PA S then they are Wrong but they are off in blue not red states

[Duke of York]

there's no way he is going to win by that much

Imagine if he does though, imagine! Kentucky bellwether, manifest it!

It would definitely be impressive. We can only hope.

Just wait for Oct we should know if there is an Impeachment inquiry Docugate isn't over Hillary wasn't exhonerated she was admonished by FBI and Lost Biden hasn't been fully Investigation yet

An Impeachment inquiry by Oct will hinder Beshear chances I am not rooting for RS but we all know what happened to Strickland and Ryan and TMac in Appalachian when they had early leads they Lost

We gotta hear from Trafalgar if there is uniform between Trafalgar and rest of polls they are right but if Trafalgar is way off like PA S then they are Wrong but they are off in blue not red states

Very few are going to be casting a ballot for governor based on Docugate. An impeachment over this would only hurt Republicans.

Trafalgar is a pollster that makes up their their numbers and only happens to be right on occasion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

there's no way he is going to win by that much

Imagine if he does though, imagine! Kentucky bellwether, manifest it!

It would definitely be impressive. We can only hope.

Just wait for Oct we should know if there is an Impeachment inquiry Docugate isn't over Hillary wasn't exhonerated she was admonished by FBI and Lost Biden hasn't been fully Investigation yet

An Impeachment inquiry by Oct will hinder Beshear chances I am not rooting for RS but we all know what happened to Strickland and Ryan and TMac in Appalachian when they had early leads they Lost

We gotta hear from Trafalgar if there is uniform between Trafalgar and rest of polls they are right but if Trafalgar is way off like PA S then they are Wrong but they are off in blue not red states

Very few are going to be casting a ballot for governor based on Docugate. An impeachment over this would only hurt Republicans.

Trafalgar is a pollster that makes up their their numbers and only happens to be right on occasion.

Beshear is favored and so is Stein they aren't swing states GA, AZ and VA, WI and MI and PA are so it won't matter if Beshear wins but Center Street Pack Fetterman and Kelly 55/33 and Ryan 48/39 they aren't right in blue states as they said Dixon was gonna win but they were right in OH and NC that had Ryan and Beasley lose where Center Street Pack last poll had Ryan again with RV and behind on LV How about Impact polled FL and had Crist and Deming's down 50/48 and they lost 60/40 all the phony polls are in the database

They also said Docugate wasn't gonna hurt Hillary or Lewinsky wasn't gonna hurt Gore they both lost


It's Feb 3 weeks after Docugate and no FBI report anyone can lose, Ryan said a day before Eday he was gonna win on Morning Joe since Brown wins OH he is gonna win he LOST

WHY is Biden Approvals back to 44/55 and before Docugate he was at 50/47 if it won't matter

KY isn't a swing state anyways but Beshear isn't gonna win by 9 just because it's a MXDX poll, Ryan was up by the same 9 pt margin over Vance in Aug 22 but 48/39 he LOST

Before Docugate Casey was down 5 to Mastriano but we haven't seen another poll, but it's hard to believe because Casey wins all his races like Shapiro that's a prime example even before Docugate that PA is clearly gonna be closer with Docugate now

We all were told Hillary was fine because the FBI cleared her but Comey said it was no exhonerated it was an admonishment same with Biden he can't be indicted but admonished by FBI we have to wait for the FBI

I know you aren't Prez Johnson whom has a Biden signature and blanket says like he says Hochul won't lose  NY and says Biden won lose it's a 303 map it's not a 303 map if we lose AZ, GA, and VA and Kaine can be in for a tough race it's 274 R EC college

Also, NY isnt going 20 pts D anymore it's still tilts D but it only went 5 pts, the Docugate can hurt D's seats in NY like im 22

I am a D not a Biden supporter I voted for Bernie and did vote for Biden as a D not a die hard supporter

The media doesn't take friends in investigation if even a D has a scandal he should lose his right to hold office Faithful to Laws it doesn't say because Prez has pardon Power he exempt from Laws it says execte Bill and Hillary, Nixon, Reagan, Trump and Biden and Dixiecrats from Jefferson till Woodrow Wilson broke that oath because in the Declaration of Independence it says app men are created equal even Prez that faithful to execute the laws which forbids Jim Crow

[Alben Barkley]

Ya'll think this might be another Laura-Kelly esq situation where a lot (but not all) of his rural crossover support erodes but be squeezes a few extra points out of greater Louisville, greater Lexington, the Cinci Burbs, and Bowling Green?

Also, 4 years of population shifts is prolly a slight net to Beshear in KY, but hard to say.

Whether this results in a win or loss is hard to say, especially since KY is a lot more rural than KS.

In terms of the rural vote, remember that there are many voters in rural KY counties who are registered as Democrats out of tradition (since their ancestors were also registered as such) and/or convenience (since most local elected officials are Democrats) but who have voted Republican in recent years, especially for Federal offices at or near the top of the ticket. If you compare the 2019 results with those from 2020 and/or 2022, along with the turnout data from those years (which are broken down by county, party, age, gender, etc.), you will come to the conclusion that there must have been a very sizable share of voters in these rural areas who voted mostly D in 2019 (along with most earlier election years) but then proceeded to vote mostly R in 2020 and/or 2022. The 2023 election results in these counties will tell us whether or not these voters will revert to voting D when no federal races are on the ballot.

We can go even deeper than that. The 'No' vote on the abortion restriction referendum won through a surge of support in the KY-04 part of the state. These weren't all suburbs, many were small-towns inside the orbit of major metros that voted Beshear in 2019 but not by anywhere close to comparable margins. And while the No vote captured most of the Beshear vote in the central Bluegrass rurals, it did not in the southeastern coal country rurals. Which suggests further political divergences may come in November.

Credit for maps from MCI:

I wouldn't necessarily read too much into that. If Beshear wins again, he will almost certainly do so by both outperforming "No" in Eastern Kentucky coal country (even if he doesn't quite match his performance last time there) AND by running up the score in the Central Bluegrass region (I have strong ties to both those regions btw) as well as Northern Kentucky suburbs (even if he doesn't do quite as well as "No" there). Fact is a gubernatorial election is simply a very different ballgame from a referendum on an issue like abortion, brings out different coalitions who vote for different reasons. Basically the situation on the ground here is almost the complete reverse of what it was for Bevin: We have an overwhelmingly popular governor who is near the top of national rankings, but his party is not in sync with the state's partisan trends. This will almost certainly lead to a close race, but just like last time, I would bet on the governor's personal popularity being the deciding factor over partisanship. That means I would predict Beshear to win re-election. And if this was even 10 years ago, I'd predict him to do it by a landslide. As it is, I think a margin similar to the abortion referendum (even if the map isn't exactly the same) would be a pretty decisive win.

[South Dakota Democrat]

The same people saying not to hold grudges because "it's all in the past" are usually the same people who say we should still require masks in 2023.

Who's really living in the past?

Narrator:  No one's actually saying that.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

https://twitter.com/rkahne/status/1620582943520616448?t=T8t_L0-lwzXg5Mhu0ZmxjA&a...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/rkahne/status/1620582943520616448?t=T8t_L0-lwzXg5Mhu0ZmxjA&a...

I’m glad we finally have an unabashed Pro-Borg assimilation candidate.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Some other hits from that list;

Pronouns
Mail in Ballots
Fetterman
Iran
Media
Baby Formula “Outages”
January 6
BLM (which I will insist he means the Bureau of Land Management)
Sports
Music
Climate
Merry Christmas

[Pheurton Skeurto]

https://twitter.com/rkahne/status/1620582943520616448?t=T8t_L0-lwzXg5Mhu0ZmxjA&a...

The gender thing is funny as hell but some of the other things on here are pretty great, like "remove product names"? "Vax or Fired" but also "Vax maniplation" AND "vaccine corruption"? "Hunter Biden", "Kamala", "Fetterman", "Biden"? Those are just people. "Movies/TV", "sports", "music"? Those are things. There's also just a bunch of countries listed. There's no throughline here either denoting what's good and what's bad. "Trumpphobia" is bad, presumably, but what about "Merry Christmas"?

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/rkahne/status/1620582943520616448?t=T8t_L0-lwzXg5Mhu0ZmxjA&a...

That has to be comedy, right?

[wbrocks67]

LMAO I love how Fetterman just won a swing state by 5 and somehow he's a bad thing for a GOP candidate lmao

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Chuck this up to Beshear blks aren't voting for Cameron

[Ferguson97]

LMAO I love how Fetterman just won a swing state by 5 and somehow he's a bad thing for a GOP candidate lmao

They convinced themselves that he was a terminally-ill vegetable being Macbeth'd by his wife, and it melted their brains that their piss-drinking, dog-killing quack doctor from New Jersey lost.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beshear is a WC D he is moderate on Guns unlike Natl D's whom want ban on Assault weapons

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1618598932602580994

This is about where he needs to be at this point to have a real shot at pulling off a very narrow victory in November.  Starts at Tilt D, but far closer to Tilt R than Lean D.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I previously said Beshear, Presley, Manchin and Tester are WC D moderate on guns, D's do poorly in the S due in large part on guns no other social issues because Confederate flags are gone

Presley and Stein are competetive too Reeves up by 4 is the exact margin blks can make up the difference which is 4 and blks in MS are about 6% of population

Reeves won by 5 last time but didn't go against Brad Presley