2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Hope For A New Era]

Trumpland
https://twitter.com/rooshv/status/1324183227951624194?s=20

It's the bread scientist!

If Daryush "legalize rape" Valizadeh would like to move to West Virginia, I'm sure whatever state he currently lives in would be happy to see him go.

Only legitimate rape, of course.

[Hope For A New Era]

2024 pls!!!!
https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1324448622658965505?s=20

he sounds like a sore loser. Anyway does anyone think Hawley can reach trump's appeal? or is trump a unique character in reaching out to the working class voters. Im not sure if other republicans can replicate trump's success but im not sure

Yeah. Hawley might do well in a Republican primary, but a certain amount of Trump's success did come from the fact that he was already a household name, and that name was synonymous (whether rightfully or not) with opulence, glamor, and fame.

He will flop, Kamala-in-2019 style.

[Hope For A New Era]

I just woke up to the newly-blue Georgia.

It’s there yet

[Hope For A New Era]

I’m thinking about all y’all who wrote Georgia off talking about Kemp was going to steal it anyway.

I have to admit, I've been pleasantly surprised. I thought it would be the last of the 413 to flip, if we got that far.

I do wonder, though. Is this the "real" election result, suppression-free? Or would GA have been stronger for Biden without Kemp?

[Hope For A New Era]

We need an organization focused on moving Dems out of California and other Safe D states into swing states. Keep the Blue Wall blue, demographic-shift Georgia, North Carolina, Texas to the left. With the right strategy, I think we can keep the R EC advantage down. Maybe try to overwhelm Wyoming with sheer numbers, Vermont-in-the-80s style?

[Hope For A New Era]

I get that they need to project confidence, but at what point are they going to accept the loss?

They'll do a (and I feel bad for criticizing her now) Stacey Abrams-style "well yes, but actually no" concession.

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1324158992877154310?s=20

Followed by a Republican president leaving it again in the next 4-8 years. What a hollow victory.

sssshhhhh

Climate is quietly becoming a nonpartisan issue, especially among younger Republicans. Personally, I'm not worried about that.

[Hope For A New Era]

What do we make of the fact that Minnesota voted to the left of the nation?

Well, what I make of it is that I was right. The state is so polarized and so consistently high-turnout that it’s Titanium Likely D, and the close margin in 2016 was caused mostly by third-party voting. Dems shouldn’t get too worried about trends either, because MSP is there to counteract any rural rightward shift (most of which has already happened anyway).

[Hope For A New Era]

Trying to find a post I read some time ago that I think is in this thread. Something about how Democrats were hoping to raise turnout after the low-turnout 1996 election, and some Canadian pollster found that a lot of these people didn't turn out to vote because they were extremely conspiracist, or something?

[Hope For A New Era]

Rita Hart has taken the lead in Iowa-02 according to DDHQ. It's only by 151 votes, and who knows if it will stand. But I'll take it!

Nice! I would rather have saved Queen Abby though :<

[Hope For A New Era]

I finally feel safe enough to eat my election-night pizza that has been sitting in the refrigerator since then.

That was such a terrible night. It really did look like another 2016 for a while. Knock on wood.

[Hope For A New Era]

NV AZ is Trump's best chance to challenge

When even Jessica is less of a partisan hack than you...wow

[Hope For A New Era]

Might be a hot take but I think the fact that white men are swinging against Trump so hard it basically will decide the election is the best evidence yet that sexism sunk Hillary above all.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/7/13/1870970/-It-s-not-just-Republicans-Hostile-sexism-is-skewing-the-Democratic-primary

"among the most sexist Democratic primary voters, Biden is preferred by as much as a four-to-one margin"

"[Kamala] Harris’s support drops from around 15 percent among the least sexist voters to less than 5 percent among those who are most sexist.”"

I have nothing against Warren or Harris, because they weren't my first choice anyway, but if even Democrats are this sexist, I'm pessimistic about the prospect of having a female president anytime soon, if even Democrats are this sexist.

I'm not pessimistic. With "the right kind of candidate," you can break through that. I remember reading a story posted by someone on here about someone who was campaigning/polling/whatever for Obama in rural Pennsylvania in 2008. He went up to someone's door and asked who he was voting for, and the guy said something along the lines of "I'm voting for the n*****."

Play it right and you can get people to vote for a candidate in spite of all sorts of prejudices.

[Hope For A New Era]

So I've been looking at the Florida swing map on the New York Times. Almost everything looked as I would expect at this point: big swing R in South Florida, slight D swing on East/West coasts, small swings through central Florida, and then a good D swing near Jacksonville and a good R swing into the Tallahassee area.

What surprised me though is the 4-8 point swing towards Biden in the Florida panhandle. I know he lost by a ton anyway, but that doesn't seem like the sort of area that would be trending his way. Okaloosa County currently has the biggest pro-Biden swing in the state at 8.1%. Anyone have any ideas why that happened?

Black turnout maybe?

Or maybe new population/demographic change? I know the Panhandle is increasingly popular for tourism.

Edit: Okaloosa in particular was 6.29% third-party in 2016. Since it seems like Biden picked up most of the 2016 third-party vote, I imagine that played a role also. Trump actually underperformed Bush (2000 and 2004), McCain, and Romney in that county in 2016. I think we could put that county specifically down to the growth of Crestview?

Edit Edit: Okaloosa voted 67% D in 1924, 72% R in 1928, and 90% D in 1932. Wtf lol

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1324917221152448512?s=20

give up, josh

watch him run for 2024 and utterly flop

Total empty suit. Probably would have lost if not for McCaskill's unpopularity. I bet Kander or Galloway could have beaten him.

[Hope For A New Era]

Now Trumpers are railing against Libertarian voters...Sad that they don't realize they are far from a lock for Trump if it was a 2 person race, Biden won 3rd party voters from 2016 62% to 24%...

https://twitter.com/Read_N_Learn/status/1324914743174451200

Ironic considering they were trying to get Kanye to run with the expressed intent of siphoning votes from Biden

Does anybody remember when Atlas freaked out about Kanye getting in the race? I think Horus and a couple others were legitimately convinced he was going to cost Biden LMAO

I remember. One tweet = 14-page thread in less than an hour. Oh, Atlas. Never, ever change.

[Hope For A New Era]

So this election will have the highest turnout since 1896.

You know, when a populist appealed strongly to the rural WWC and drove up their turnout, only to lose by 4.5 points anyway to a pretty likable mainstream candidate because “elites” in the midwest and Northeast opposed him even more strongly for the same reasons he fired up his supporters.

Realigning elections don't have to be landslides!

I think it's pretty clear that there's been a dramatic shift in party bases of support and platforms since 2015. I see a very clear realignment.

There's even the same "front porch" campaign!

[Hope For A New Era]

Wait a second, will this really be higher turnout than 1896? Wikipedia claims 1896 was 79.3%. I really doubt we could get that high.

[Hope For A New Era]

Wait a second, will this really be higher turnout than 1896? Wikipedia claims 1896 was 79.3%. I really doubt we could get that high.

I thought I heard a pundit say the estimated final total of ~155M would - at ~60.2% turnout - equate to the highest turnout since 1968's 60.7%.

I've been hearing 160M in most media, something around 66-67%. Alben Barkley was the one who said 1896.

[Hope For A New Era]

How is Georgia looking? Still solid?

[Hope For A New Era]

Susan Collins would, unironically, be a fairly good and qualified Transportation secretary in a Biden administration.

Clever trick if it works. Could the same be done in Pennsylvania with Toomey? Might be worth putting a few Republicans in the Cabinet if it gets a sneaky Senate majority.

[Hope For A New Era]

Susan Collins would, unironically, be a fairly good and qualified Transportation secretary in a Biden administration.

Clever trick if it works. Could the same be done in Pennsylvania with Toomey? Might be worth putting a few Republicans in the Cabinet if it gets a sneaky Senate majority.

There's no way any Republican Senator would agree to this unless their state has a Republican governor or if the Democratic governor is bound by law to appoint another Republican. This idea stands zero chance of working.

You never know. The right kind of senator might take the deal. The right kind of power-hungry. If Brian Kemp was a Senator he'd take the Cabinet position in a second.

[Hope For A New Era]

Susan Collins would, unironically, be a fairly good and qualified Transportation secretary in a Biden administration.

Clever trick if it works. Could the same be done in Pennsylvania with Toomey? Might be worth putting a few Republicans in the Cabinet if it gets a sneaky Senate majority.

There's no way any Republican Senator would agree to this unless their state has a Republican governor or if the Democratic governor is bound by law to appoint another Republican. This idea stands zero chance of working.

You never know. The right kind of senator might take the deal. The right kind of power-hungry. If Brian Kemp was a Senator he'd take the Cabinet position in a second.

[Hope For A New Era]

Anyone know what order ballots are counted in in Iowa? If mail is counted after Election Day, it's possible that Jefferson could flip and become the state's sole Obama-Trump-Biden county.

[Hope For A New Era]

Georgia is just wow

College white men did a 43-point swing!



Also, supposedly Trump won college-educated voters 52-47 in Kansas. If that's true, Kansas Republicans are not even remotely close to their floor (assuming current trends continue).