2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[BlueSwan]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

I don't think Biden running a "feminine" campaign has got anything much to do with it, but I totally agree with you about Trump's macho appeal. This factor should not be underestimated. There really isn't much rational thought behind voting for Trump for the VAST majority of Trump voters, I believe. Sure, they can provide rationalizations, but I don't think a single of those rationalizations are the true reason why they vote for him.

This is also why the educated elite have never been able to understand why people would vote for Trump since the educated elite typically finds ultra macho behaviour primitive and off-putting. Trumps behaviour is a feature, not a bug. This is also why it is far from certain that a DeSantis or Cotton or whoever would be able to carry the torch for Trumpism going forward.

Cut it out. Saying that Latinos/Black are stupid and vote because muh "primitive macho behaviour"... while "educated" whites voting rationally. WTF are saying, man? It is so f**king racist.

Except that is not what I am saying at all. Infact I don't even mention race in that post. Trumps macho behaviour first and foremost appeals to less educated men, this is known fact. Also, this is first and foremost WHITE men, but obviously not exclusively white men.

[BlueSwan]

I'm super tired so I might have mentioned this before, but the way this result is looking right now is pretty much a dream result for moderate republicans. They get rid of Trump and at least have a chance at taking the party in a direction away from Trumpism, while holding the senate and effectively making Biden a lame duck president. On the other hand, it could just pave the way for Alex Jones 2024 or even Q himself.

IF things hold as they are, I'm quite pleased.  I will say, though, that I'm saddened some of my favorite Democrats in the House lost last night.  

I haven't even paid attention to the house yet. Which ones were you sad to see lose?

[BlueSwan]

Trumps most realistic path outside of stealing the election, seems to be Nevada + Pennsylvania + North Carolina + Georgia. Wisconsin and Michigan seems very likely to be gone.

[BlueSwan]

Guys, the polling miss is an incredibly dark omen. We all have our issues with political science, but nobody should want punditry to become even more immune to data. I now expect the insufferable Cillizza to visit diners at ten times his usual rate because he can safely ignore any polls that defy his reasoning.

Yes, I strongly agree. I was really hoping for the polls to be right, not just because they predicted a Biden win, but to avoid this. Future elections will be even more dominated by stupid hot takes and we'll likely get much less quality polling because fewer outlets will be willing to pay for polling.

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/nick_field90/status/1323997319176638466

I wouldn't give this much weight, but I like that Casey is doing this to provide a counter to Trumps lies about the election.

[BlueSwan]

Not about race? Ok. So it isn't Black/Latinos don't know better than macho thing. Instead it's low-educated men don't know better than macho thing. Very progressive.

Certainly politically incorrect, but it is true.

Anyway: "There really isn't much rational thought behind voting for Trump for the VAST majority of Trump voters" is a truly elitist attitude. Even worse Romneys 47%. Perhaps, literally, why Black/Latino/Low-Educated swung Trumpy.

Very elitist yes. And very true.

[BlueSwan]

Antrim Co Michigan has to be some clerical error or something isn't it?



Was 62-33 Trump in 2016.  It almost completely inversed.

Yeah, that looks very odd indeed.

[BlueSwan]

Any hope we might get NC, or is it completely gone?

There's hope, but it's easily the longest shot of any of the remaining states. In my mind, I gave it to Trump like 12 hours ago or something like that.

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324004491612618752?s=19

Such blatant dishonesty with the intent of creating social unrest.

LOCK HIM UP!!

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324004491612618752?s=19

What an idiot,  there's nothing "magical" or "strange" about it, it happens every fricking election.

Yup, and it also happened in reverse in states like Iowa and Ohio, where Biden had huge leads only to see them predictably evaporate as the counting went on.

[BlueSwan]

Any idea how the Senate will shake out? I see PredictIt seems to feel pretty good about Republicans holding it and Susan Collins looks like she’s in good shape, but I can’t figure out the overall picture one way or the other.

I have it at 50-48 for republicans with the Georgia races going to runoffs.

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/LiamWBZ/status/1324005540004057090?s=19

If this is correct my god

Awful, yet expected.

[BlueSwan]

Is Biden doomed in GA/PA/NC?

Is Trump doomed in NV/WI/MI?

Biden is likely doomed in NC, but not quite in GA, and certainly not in PA yet.

Trump is not quite doomed in NV yet, but probably in WI and MI.

That's my take anyway.

[BlueSwan]

Fake?
https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346?s=19

very difficult to make up a 100k deficit, especially when its mostly VBM now

Who are "Data Orbital". Are these guys trustworthy or are they Trump hacks?

[BlueSwan]

Who is ticket splitting for Collins still??

I have been of the impression that a high voter turnout would help incumbents in down-ticket races, since normally disengaged voters are unlikely to even know most of the candidates, so an incumbent with high name recognition - and let's face it, Susan Collins is one of the best known senators for better or worse - would benefit from this.

[BlueSwan]

Is anyone else taking about AZ other than Data Orbital? We can't afford to lose there.

Yeah, if we lose AZ and NV we HAVE to win Pennsylvania. That's not good.

[BlueSwan]

Oh dear god am I really going to have to listen to Collins be very concerned for the next 6 years?

Well, she won't have to be concerned if Uncle Joe is the president.

[BlueSwan]

When was the last time there was Democratic President, Republican Senate and Democratic House?

Has to be back in the 19th century I think.

[BlueSwan]

Just woke up after 9 hours of sleep (finally!!). Have to go to work so no time to catch up. Could anybody help?

Nevada looks scary close. Are we still confident about that one?

Is Arizona still disputed? It was last night.

Biden has caught up quite a lot in PA - what's the general verdict here?

Any real news on which direction GA is taking?

[BlueSwan]

Just woke up after 9 hours of sleep (finally!!). Have to go to work so no time to catch up. Could anybody help?

Nevada looks scary close. Are we still confident about that one?

Is Arizona still disputed? It was last night.

Biden has caught up quite a lot in PA - what's the general verdict here?

Any real news on which direction GA is taking?

Nevada should be good because the rest is Vegas mail in. AZ is gonna be close. PA is almost safe Biden--he's passed 270. GA is lean/likely Biden.

Thanks mate. Sounds good!

[BlueSwan]

Just woke up after 9 hours of sleep (finally!!). Have to go to work so no time to catch up. Could anybody help?

Nevada looks scary close. Are we still confident about that one?

Is Arizona still disputed? It was last night.

Biden has caught up quite a lot in PA - what's the general verdict here?

Any real news on which direction GA is taking?

Nevada - Generally confident, most of the vote left is VBM from Clark County.

Arizona - AP & Fox have called it. It has tightened a bit and may continue to do so but it does not seem like a flip back to Trump is imminent.

Pennsylvania - Gradually chipping away, Biden is overperforming benchmarks and should end up the clear leader

Georgia - Getting very close. Biden may pull ahead imminently.

Thanks mate! Good news to start the day!

[BlueSwan]

It is concerning that no one seems able to determine how many votes are left to count.

If they don't know how many votes are left to count despite polls being closed for more than a day, how can they possibly know whether the vote has been fair.

Are you literally a Russian troll bot?

Probably just a Trumpist accepting all of the Trump camps lame talking points as gospel.

[BlueSwan]

It is concerning that no one seems able to determine how many votes are left to count.

If they don't know how many votes are left to count despite polls being closed for more than a day, how can they possibly know whether the vote has been fair.

Republican officials are largely to blame for this in Pennsylvania, at least. Ballots were accepted but not allowed to be processed (and counted) until yesterday. The party you support is at fault here.

Yes, and remember that this is BY DESIGN. Republicans did not want mail in ballots to be counted on election night and hence did not allow for the pre-processing of VBM before election day in MI/PA/WI. They absolutely planned for the red mirage so they could throw doubt on the legitimacy of VBM being counted after election day. This has been telegraphed for months and yet the Trumpists still think that this is legit.

[BlueSwan]

States seriously needs to put infrastructure in place to process and count all votes on election night, perhaps bar some overseas votes. Every other civilized nation can do it. In Denmark, voter participation is around 85%, we have barely anybody voting early, so pretty much everybody votes on election day. In the 25 or so elections I have participated in, I have literally never stood in anything that anybody would call a "line". Every time it has been like a regular trip to the supermarket. Worst case is that there are a handful of people in front of me. On average I would say that I have been in and out of the polling place in 5 minutes. Our polling places closes at 8 pm and we usually have a final count before midnight. These counts are MANUALLY done by poll workers, as we don't use voting machines at all. In the following days one further fine count is done of all ballots to ensure election integrity and to figure out exactly which politicians got elected.

It's not rocket science. All it takes is resources and the right infrastructure. Don't tell me that the USA cannot accomplish this in the 21th century.

[BlueSwan]

For some reason I find myself getting more anxious about this result. It would be very 2020 for the remaining states to all go to Trump by razor thin margins or even worse for Nevada to hold, but Arizona flip at the last second.