Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[roxas11]

I do wonder how much anything that has happened over the past few days or even next few days will actually matter in end since 1/3 of people have already voted in this election.

I will say that if Glenn Youngkin does lose this election the early vote will be one of the main reasons for his loss

Here's the thing though: Most people who vote early are people who are going to vote Democrat anyway. And logically, are you going to vote early if you're on the fence going into the final weeks?The race has tightened partially because undecided voters have decided and they're going more for Youngkin. If you're someone who's undecided, you're not going to be voting super early, so this argument is not as strong as it can seem.

Maybe, but this is a huge assumption because we have no idea who has voted early at this point. It could very well be people who are going to vote Democrat like in the past, but right now there is no way of knowing that for sure

Finally, even if undecided voters do break for Youngkin at the end that still may not be enough if we honestly believe that 1/3 of all voters in virginia who came out to vote early went for terry mcauliffe...

[roxas11]

Clinton-Biden-Youngkin voters will exist. The question is to what extent do they exist? Are they just a small group or a sizable minority? If Youngkin can capture even 5-10% of Clinton-Biden voters, that's probably a good sign for him.

Sure, they exist absolutely - but it really confounds me, given that someone who supported Clinton and Biden would've likely supported Northam, who has objectively gotten a LOT done for VA in his 4 years - and then just be like, yeah, nah, I'll vote for Youngkin now when he's basically against nearly all of the progress that Northam has accomplished.

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1455174915880013825?s=20

I do wonder what the impact will be if terry mcauliffe actually does go on to win. If pollsters turn out to be wrong on this I can see the polling industry taking an even bigger hit to their credibility than they did in 2016

pollsters better hope that Glenn Youngkin does win this race because otherwise they will have a lot of explaining to do....

[roxas11]

It doesn't. And until anyone can provide proof that these random anecdotes of "my kids teacher was telling my child that white people are terrible!" are ever true, I don't believe them. Because even if something was brought up, there's no way that a public school teacher would say something like that.

Even in a world where this did happen, how is this in any way shape or form having to do with McAuliffe? I have no doubt that this person was looking for everyone reason to vote GOP, and I don't buy that he was a "Hilary-Biden" voter.

“Who are you going to believe, parents? Your own lying eyes and ears or me, a partisan poster on an obscure message board?”

It doesn’t matter what you think. Many of us have experienced this firsthand. You’re not making us forget it.

I can't say it its true or not and its definitely not my place to dismiss parents who claimed to have seen or experienced such things.

I can simply say that at least here in Louisiana I have never seen or heard of anything about CTR being taught in classrooms. It's something that I see talked about a lot online, but in real life I have seen not evidence of it at all. Also, I unfortunately have to sometimes help out my young nieces and nephews with their homework and at no point did I ever see anything that had to do with CRT, nor did ever bring up anything about the teacher telling them to hate white people

Believe me when I tell you that these kids LOVE to gossip about teachers and every little thing that happens in their class and if something like that was happening at their school they would literally force me to listen to every single detail even if did not want to hear about it lol

[roxas11]

McAuliffe will go down as a perfect example of how to run a really terrible campaign.

Maybe? But it sure seems like "running a terrible campaign" coincides often with "running in an environment unfavorable to your party." Mainly because it looks like nothing you are doing is sticking or making a difference, but perhaps that's because it's beyond your control and you have to keep trying different things.

This isn't something I'm deciding new in 2021 - I first felt this way in 2014.

True. I'm not denying that Biden's unpopularity will have undoubtedly played some part in it if McAuliffe loses, but losing in a state won by your parties' presidential nominee by ten points a year ago takes at least a fairly sloppy campaign.

Plus, I think most can agree that the McAuliffe campaign HAS been pretty bad.

Biden’s approval in VA is negative in most polls. Terry’s campaign is alright - the problem is we have an unpopular President who isn’t course correcting at all

How in the world is Biden is suppose to be course correcting because It would be 1 thing if everything was going south right now, but in Biden case this here is the reality

Covid cases have massively declined and unemployment is 4.8 percent and dropping

Can you imagine if Obama and the Dems had news like this before heading into the 2010 midterms. He or any other president would have been hailed as a hero right about now. heck if you had told me in 2020 that that Biden would be unpopular with unemployment at 4 percemt I would have not believed you yet here we are....

I just think that Biden more so than any other president I can think of is being hurt at a time when almost everything around him is going to in the right direction. Even trump low numbers during a decent economy still made more sense to me because his many controversies were overshadowing all of the positive news about the economy, but in Biden case he is not even doing crazy stuff like that so that make his low number even more baffling

Unfortunately, I think the social media is playing a big role here and there is nothing Biden can really do about it ​beacue no matter how good things get Facebook will still convince a lot of people that the things are worse than they were during the great recession. Sadly, I think that even if inflation went down tomorrow a lot people still would not believe it because some idiot on Facebook would convince them that it just hit record highs

[roxas11]

McAuliffe will go down as a perfect example of how to run a really terrible campaign.

Maybe? But it sure seems like "running a terrible campaign" coincides often with "running in an environment unfavorable to your party." Mainly because it looks like nothing you are doing is sticking or making a difference, but perhaps that's because it's beyond your control and you have to keep trying different things.

This isn't something I'm deciding new in 2021 - I first felt this way in 2014.

True. I'm not denying that Biden's unpopularity will have undoubtedly played some part in it if McAuliffe loses, but losing in a state won by your parties' presidential nominee by ten points a year ago takes at least a fairly sloppy campaign.

Plus, I think most can agree that the McAuliffe campaign HAS been pretty bad.

Biden’s approval in VA is negative in most polls. Terry’s campaign is alright - the problem is we have an unpopular President who isn’t course correcting at all

How in the world is Biden is suppose to be course correcting because It would be 1 thing if everything was going south right now, but in Biden case this here is the reality

Covid cases have massively declined and unemployment is 4.8 percent and dropping

Can you imagine if Obama and the Dems had news like this before heading into the 2010 midterms. He or any other president would have been hailed as a hero right about now. heck if you had told me in 2020 that that Biden would be unpopular with unemployment at 4 percemt I would have not believed you yet here we are....

I just think that Biden more so than any other president I can think of is being hurt at a time when almost everything around him is going to in the right direction. Even trump low numbers during a decent economy still made more sense to me because his many controversies were overshadowing all of the positive news about the economy, but in Biden case he is not even doing crazy stuff like that so that make his low number even more baffling

Unfortunately, I think the social media is playing a big role here and there is nothing Biden can really do about it ​beacue no matter how good things get Facebook will still convince a lot of people that the things are worse than they were during the great recession. Sadly, I think that even if inflation went down tomorrow a lot people still would not believe it because some idiot on Facebook would convince them that it just hit record highs

You have just figured out how the right wing manufactured outrage machine works to perfection every single time.

Yep.

It's also why we have conflicting reports on the economy - we have numerous articles saying consumer index is not that bad and economy is booming - backed up with the unemployment rate.

But higher gas prices, inflation, and mainstream outlets yelling "supply chain crisis!!!!!" every day is making people think the economy is worse than it is.

also not to mention that gas prices have nothing to do with the actual economy, but alas

What amazes me is that even with the current inflation that is still nothing compared to pain that people were experiencing in 2009/2010 during the great recession yet I have seen polls where people have claimed that things today are actually worse than it was during great recession lol

It just goes to show you that a lot of people are increasingly disconnected from reailty

[roxas11]

McAuliffe will go down as a perfect example of how to run a really terrible campaign.

Maybe? But it sure seems like "running a terrible campaign" coincides often with "running in an environment unfavorable to your party." Mainly because it looks like nothing you are doing is sticking or making a difference, but perhaps that's because it's beyond your control and you have to keep trying different things.

This isn't something I'm deciding new in 2021 - I first felt this way in 2014.

True. I'm not denying that Biden's unpopularity will have undoubtedly played some part in it if McAuliffe loses, but losing in a state won by your parties' presidential nominee by ten points a year ago takes at least a fairly sloppy campaign.

Plus, I think most can agree that the McAuliffe campaign HAS been pretty bad.

Biden’s approval in VA is negative in most polls. Terry’s campaign is alright - the problem is we have an unpopular President who isn’t course correcting at all

How in the world is Biden is suppose to be course correcting because It would be 1 thing if everything was going south right now, but in Biden case this here is the reality

Covid cases have massively declined and unemployment is 4.8 percent and dropping

Can you imagine if Obama and the Dems had news like this before heading into the 2010 midterms. He or any other president would have been hailed as a hero right about now. heck if you had told me in 2020 that that Biden would be unpopular with unemployment at 4 percemt I would have not believed you yet here we are....

I just think that Biden more so than any other president I can think of is being hurt at a time when almost everything around him is going to in the right direction. Even trump low numbers during a decent economy still made more sense to me because his many controversies were overshadowing all of the positive news about the economy, but in Biden case he is not even doing crazy stuff like that so that make his low number even more baffling

Unfortunately, I think the social media is playing a big role here and there is nothing Biden can really do about it ​beacue no matter how good things get Facebook will still convince a lot of people that the things are worse than they were during the great recession. Sadly, I think that even if inflation went down tomorrow a lot people still would not believe it because some idiot on Facebook would convince them that it just hit record highs

Because he's doing a f**king terrible job so far? Inflation is out of control (people say it's "transitory", but historically inflation usually takes a few years to kick in after printing a ton of money), the border is a complete mess, supply chain crisis, royally screwed up Afghanistan, has no plan for when COVID restrictions should end, is uniformally liberal despite campaigning as a moderate. He's done a horrible job with the reconciliation bill so far too - why not just focus on doing 1-2 things well as opposed to doing 5+ things poorly? Just seems like a pork-ridden package to democratic interest groups now.

If you guys stop b**ching about "social media misinformation" and actually start doing the work, maybe just maybe Joe Biden would be popular? Like f***, I'm so tired of hearing people make excuses for Biden. I voted for him and expect far better than you guys. My vote isn't free; you have to earn it.  

Now, again, I'm expecting T-Mac to win fairly comfortably (by about 4%), but if Youngkin wins, the democrats need to stop b**ching and start getting to work. Talk to people who don't always agree with you. Implement solutions to the problems they talk about. Focus better on a couple of issues rather than attempting to do a million different things poorly. Joe Biden winning was more of people being concerned about COVID and Trump being unpopular; it's not a showing of huge, widespread support of every aspect of the liberal democrat agenda.

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455210988047937542

They seem to want to have it both ways because They are predicting Youngkin to win but then they add this....

This was an incredibly tough pick, so if it goes the other way with a McAuliffe win, I won’t be surprised in the slightest. Virginia is, after all, a leftward-trending state where Republicans haven’t won a statewide election since 2009

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1455243036795998212

Videos like this are always dumb.  Like, do you think that if they found a Youngkin voter who could actually articulate what CRT is they would be plastering his facae on social media trying to get him to go viral?  lol

My money says 95% of Youngkin voters cannot do this.  Yet it's their number 1 issue.  

C'mon, man, c'mon! Everyone intuitively knows, what CRT is. It's White People BAAAD. As simple as that. A lot of {white} libs think this way, and believe or not, some of them are teachers. And, of course, some will inject it in some way in theirs teaching.


Condoleezza Rice explains like a Queen she is, what many normie parents worry about:

https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1451038600242544642
Here is the full video:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Youngkin/GOP should make an ad of it.

Well, in the red state of Louisiana none of my Republican co-worker had never heard or even talked about CTR until after Trump had lost in 2020.

Condoleezza Rice can explain it all she wants, but the reality is as a Black American neither I or any of my family was ever taught that all White People are BAD in school nor has any of the young kids in our family has ever had a teacher come up to them to talk about CRT

[roxas11]

Youngkin rally...
https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455365502222708736?s=20

So what are glenn youngkins chances of winning if he goes on to lose Loudoun?

[roxas11]

My God tweets need to be banned from this thread.

While I don't mind most of the tweets I will admit that I do roll my eyes every time I see someone posting a tweet hyping up crowd sizes or posting a tweet that supposedly claims that a candidate has great internal polls without actually showing us the actual poll so that we can see for ourselves

Now to be clear, I'm not just picking on the republicans for doing this because I have also seen the Dems do it in 2020. I have just never been a fan of either party hyping up internal polls or crowd sizes nor do I take that kind of talk seriously at all

[roxas11]

I do think it's curious that Q-pac likely spiked their poll.

Makes me think it might've had a T-Mac lead, because if they found a Youngkin lead of like +6, it wouldn't be the only one, since Fox also had one.

The poll obviously did not have Youngkin leading and this the main reason why they will never release it. Had that poll showed that Youngkin was winning there would be no reason at all not to put it out.

It's a actually smart move on their part because they won't have to be the 1 major poll that takes a risk and shows different results compared to everyone else. Plus no matter who wins, they can now always fall back on the idea there did not put out any poll at the end and therefore nobody can say they got the race wrong

[roxas11]

"X didn't publish poll - must be a good news for T-Mac!". You basically unskew the non-existence of a poll!  

I dont feel that way at all

It's more likely that Quinnipiac had a poll that showed some pretty crazy results that they themselves were not confident about nor did they want to take the risk by putting the poll out just 24 hours before an election

even if the poll had showed a 80 point lead for terry mcauliffe that does not mean its automatically good news for terry mcauliffe, it just means the Quinnipiac polls are now complete trash that should not be taken seriously by anyone lol

[roxas11]

This is interesting

https://twitter.com/RecoverRepub/status/1455533613571878925

DId you guy's ignore the giant post as the start of the thread warning everyone to ignore nonsense like this.

sorry about that I did not see that at all and I deleted the post

[roxas11]

Wasserman is predicting 2.8M-3.1M total turnout, but 2M on Election Day seems unlikely.

I cant even take Dave Wasserman seriously at this point lol

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455553552743604232?s=21

what the hell does this tweet even mean? 

I have no idea lol

[roxas11]

It feels like there's a bandwagon effect on saying Youngkin is favored.

Republican-leaning pollsters release a disproportionate of the polls in the final two weeks, average starts to favor Youngkin, Crystal Ball moves to Lean R because they didn't want to do a tossup, other prediction groups follow suit. Beltway types wet themselves at the prospect of a truly competitive race in their backyard and entertain every inkling of Dems being in disarray in a Biden +10 state.
Youngkin would need to overperform with usually straight ticket Democrats even with poor minority turnout and good R-leaning election day turnout. I just don't see it in the numbers or feel it in my gut. It'll be closer then 2017 but not under <2%.

Well one thing is clear to me so far

That fox news poll showing a 8 point win for Glenn Youngkin probably isn't happening and if anything, I'm kind of surprised that the Republican turnout so far has not been as high as I was expecting it to be.

[roxas11]

Hmm. Seems like early voting might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting and turnout reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory at the moment.

I think you may be right

It's possible that Glenn Youngkin can still pull this off, but I am simply not seeing the kind of turnout that makes me think he can win this. Right now republican should be doing way better than they currently are and their turnout should be though the roof but so far that is not what we are seeing

now it's still early and who who knows, maybe as the day goes on, things will look better Republicans and Glenn Youngkin will go on to win this election, but as of right now it is starting to look like a narrow McAuliffe win to me

[roxas11]

Hmm. Seems like early voting might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting and turnout reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory at the moment.

I think you may be right

It's possible that Glenn Youngkin can still pull this off, but I am simply not seeing the kind of turnout that makes me think he can win this. Right now republican should be doing way better than they currently are and their turnout should be though the roof but so far that is not what we are seeing

now it's still early and who who knows, maybe as the day goes on, things will look better Republicans and Glenn Youngkin will go on to win this election, but as of right now it is starting to look like a narrow McAuliffe win to me

This election was never about turnout in R base areas, especially given it’s an off year election. The GOP base is simply just not big enough where the GOP can win by turning them out. Youngkin’s goal has always been to peel off suburbanites in the metros that will have relatively high turnout, something that we can’t know the result of into the votes are counted.

Prognostication based on turnout is essentially useless. High turnout in the metros is more likely than not to be good for Dems, but the correlation is probably around .10 lol.

I think the larger problem for the GOP is that the underwhelming turnout so far does show that maybe Republicans were simply not as excited about this election as the media thought they would be. I remember the 2010 Virginia race and how fired up the Republicans were at the time and so far this current race is nothing like that at all.

The turnout is so far telling is us that there is very little enthusiasm for this race and if terry mcauliffe does win that would be a big warning sign for the GOP going forward

Now, as I said before, Glenn Youngkin can still win this election if things pick-up for the GOP throughout the day, but at some point the Republican turnout is going to have to get a lot better than it currently is otherwise terry mcauliffe is going to win this

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455577405251334146?s=20

His previous 8 tweets are about PredictIt, lol.

speaking of predictit

Glenn Youngkin is currently sinking like a stone and terry mcauliffe has retaken the lead

[roxas11]

I can't believe I'm saying, but the ridiculous fox news poll may have been they best thing they could have ever happened to terry mcauliffe

It looks like the media has literally scared the dems into coming out to vote lol

[roxas11]

GOP is now saying we don't know how people voted.  That's true.  But part of their rationale for why Youngkin would pull this off was "lack of enthusiasm" among Dems.  That's simply, objectively, based on actual turnout reports, NOT panning out.  If anything turnout in Dem counties and cities is going to exceed 2017 levels (when everyone said Dems WERE enthused).

These results should make one thing very clear to the media and the GOP

This is not the Obama years anymore and the era where Dems just stayed home during elections are over thanks to Trump

[roxas11]

Higher turnout was, indeed expected - "debunked" by this forum.

No. Nobody said Dems lack enthusiasm. Just that GOP had it higher.

This is not playing out in the actual votes.  It is clear at this point that for Youngkin, everything is riding on him getting a significant crossover of Biden suburban voters.

even if he does get some of them that still may not be enough

[roxas11]

While I'm hoping he wins since Youngkin is anti vax by proxy (anti vaccine mandate), a 2 or so point McAuliffe victory is still pathetic for a state like Virginia.

Had you said this a few months ago I would have agreed but the second the media decided to write terry mcauliffe political obituary and start pushing the narrative that he was doomed heading into this election, I now feel that a McAuliffe victory ends looking far more impressive than it ever had any right to be

If McAuliffe does win there is going to be a lot of questions about that now infamous fox news poll showing in 8 point lead for Glenn Youngkin

[roxas11]

I think biggest surprise to me of the year is that Biden really is not having the negative impact on Dem turnout that media said he would

Unlike Obama Biden simply does not even seem to be a factor when it comes to Dem's turnring out to vote

At first when it happened in California I just thought it was a fluke because, of course the Dems were going to come out and vote against someone like Larry elders, but the fact the they are once again coming out to vote in Virginia now makes is clear to me that Joe Biden is not killing Dem enthusiasm for voting at all. If this continues than the 2022 midterms may end up playing out a lot differently than what I originally thought.