North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Libertas Vel Mors]

i think this is probably the best map you can get with respect to communities of interest and compactness




edit: i like this one more 'cause it keeps pittsboro with chapel hill

What's with everyone trying to place the Raleigh suburbs with Raleigh itself? Personally, I much prefer creating one Triangle district (durham-chapel hill-raleigh) and one Raleigh burbs one - Raleigh the city has much more in common with Durham then it does with say Holly Springs/

[Libertas Vel Mors]

BTW it increasingly looks like the NC-07/eastern NC-09 area is "going WV" on Dems even compared to other parts of the rural South.  I wouldn't count on Dems flipping anything in that area even with the most favorable map.  The best potential for an outstate Dem flip during the 2020's is in the mountains if the court forces Asheville and Boone into the same seat given how hard left both have been moving.
 

I think the best flip potential is actually the 8th, which includes Fayettesville and almost voted for Stein in 2016, but agreed other then that. Was drawing NC districts last night, and crazy seeing how much Trump overperformed PVI in the area, especially in Robeson County etc etc (though for some reason Stein, a Jewish Democrat from Chapel Hill, also really overperformed in the whole region).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article256309297.html

No blocking, they also muddled the case heavily by mixing the legislative maps and the congressional map

Let's go!

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1467895850533851145

Looks like I spoke too soon! Filing halted with like 15 minutes to spare. Fair maps might be back on the menu!

Serves the GOP right after the farce in Wisconsin. Least change, please.

Absolute horsesh**t. Won't matter after 2022 either way.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. The idea that the Court owes the NCGOP the time of day is ridiculous given that they tried to pull the same trick last decade, got caught, and took almost the entire decade dithering and wrangling before finally being forced by the court to draw a fair map that only ended up applying to the very last election of the cycle. And now they're trying to pull the same sh*t again. The Court is being too generous with them, if anything.

There's nothing illegal about the maps. Judges have a responsibility to follow the law, not make it.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. The idea that the Court owes the NCGOP the time of day is ridiculous given that they tried to pull the same trick last decade, got caught, and took almost the entire decade dithering and wrangling before finally being forced by the court to draw a fair map that only ended up applying to the very last election of the cycle. And now they're trying to pull the same sh*t again. The Court is being too generous with them, if anything.

There's nothing illegal about the maps....

Are you for real? You're a ing hack.

Lol. Point out to me the specific clause in the North Carolina Constitution that prohibits gerrymandering.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. The idea that the Court owes the NCGOP the time of day is ridiculous given that they tried to pull the same trick last decade, got caught, and took almost the entire decade dithering and wrangling before finally being forced by the court to draw a fair map that only ended up applying to the very last election of the cycle. And now they're trying to pull the same sh*t again. The Court is being too generous with them, if anything.

There's nothing illegal about the maps....

Are you for real? You're a ing hack.

Ig this is an interepretation question and what words like "fair" mean in the context of the constitution, though IMO the map clearly is unfair and violates the constitution and goes agaisnt precedent set forwards by the copurt historically

The Constitution doesn't even say fair. It just says the elections have to be free. Over 200 hundred years of precedent indicate that gerrymandering doesn't make an election unfree.

Yeah. The idea that the Court owes the NCGOP the time of day is ridiculous given that they tried to pull the same trick last decade, got caught, and took almost the entire decade dithering and wrangling before finally being forced by the court to draw a fair map that only ended up applying to the very last election of the cycle. And now they're trying to pull the same sh*t again. The Court is being too generous with them, if anything.

There's nothing illegal about the maps....

Are you for real? You're a ing hack.

Least partisan member of the NCGOP.

https://www.ncleg.gov/EnactedLegislation/Constitution/NCConstitution.html

Where does this document prohibit gerrymandering?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. The idea that the Court owes the NCGOP the time of day is ridiculous given that they tried to pull the same trick last decade, got caught, and took almost the entire decade dithering and wrangling before finally being forced by the court to draw a fair map that only ended up applying to the very last election of the cycle. And now they're trying to pull the same sh*t again. The Court is being too generous with them, if anything.

There's nothing illegal about the maps....

Are you for real? You're a ing hack.

Lol. Point out to me the specific clause in the North Carolina Constitution that prohibits gerrymandering.

"No person shall be denied the equal protection of the laws."

Equal protection clauses have not been historically interpreted at either the federal or the state level as prohibiting gerrymandering. Neither an originalist nor a textualist perspective supports such an interpretation. That's especially clear considering the context, which you misquoted by putting a period at the end: "No person shall be denied the equal protection of the laws; nor shall any person be subjected to discrimination by the State because of race, color, religion, or national origin."

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Least partisan member of the NCGOP.

https://www.ncleg.gov/EnactedLegislation/Constitution/NCConstitution.html

Where does this document prohibit gerrymandering?

To be honest? I don't know. As terminally online as I am, I spend my days thinking about things that matter instead of my state's constitution. I just like getting cheap shots against the state Republican party in.

I'll help you out: it doesn't. Maybe our out of state posters should review the actual constitution of NC before they assert that it prohibits gerrymandering of any sort?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. The idea that the Court owes the NCGOP the time of day is ridiculous given that they tried to pull the same trick last decade, got caught, and took almost the entire decade dithering and wrangling before finally being forced by the court to draw a fair map that only ended up applying to the very last election of the cycle. And now they're trying to pull the same sh*t again. The Court is being too generous with them, if anything.

There's nothing illegal about the maps....

Are you for real? You're a ing hack.

Lol. Point out to me the specific clause in the North Carolina Constitution that prohibits gerrymandering.

"No person shall be denied the equal protection of the laws."

Equal protection clauses have not been historically interpreted at either the federal or the state level as prohibiting gerrymandering. Neither an originalist nor a textualist perspective supports such an interpretation. That's especially clear considering the context, which you misquoted by putting a period at the end: "No person shall be denied the equal protection of the laws; nor shall any person be subjected to discrimination by the State because of race, color, religion, or national origin."

I think they should, though, and evidently the NCSC agrees with me. How is such an approach not textualist? Partisan gerrymandering very explicitly makes some votes count more than others. I don't really care for originalism.

Partisan gerrymandering does not make some votes count more than others. It puts votes together in a way that legislators can predict will lead to a pre-determined outcome, but all votes put together are counted equally. That's why the Supreme Court ruled in Reynolds that the equal protection clause prohibits unequally apportioned districts, but has also ruled that the equal protection clause does not prohibit partisan gerrymandering.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Hot take- In this environment and given the trends in the black belt/results in similar seats, the black belt seat will flip unless they add Durham to it or something like that

I'm skeptical of a Biden +8 or 9 racially polarized Southern seat flipping

[Libertas Vel Mors]

For real though what is with the Chapel Hill brainworms? Like what is the point? I just don't get it

Putting it in a GOP district makes said district more competitive without running into VRA issues (because Chapel Hill is so white).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Least change NC map attempt. The Tech Triad is the area that needs the most reconfiguration thanks to insane growth and also it's the most logical place to squeeze in the 14th seat (which would've narrowly gone to Biden). All the other seats are pretty self-explanatory

Your 14th is pretty strange: why split Cumberland to put Fayettville (not in the Triangle) into the 14th but not Johnston County (actually in the Triangle)?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Senate map with 25 Biden districts.  I don't know if some deviations are too high, I just made sure they're lower than 12k.  I kept most of the proposed map's county groupings the same.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/09fda123-ab7b-4a36-8a43-719f1bfea181

Why do you put black areas of Greensboro, Charlotte, and Fayetteville with white rural/suburban areas?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Least change NC map attempt. The Tech Triad is the area that needs the most reconfiguration thanks to insane growth and also it's the most logical place to squeeze in the 14th seat (which would've narrowly gone to Biden). All the other seats are pretty self-explanatory

Your 14th is pretty strange: why split Cumberland to put Fayettville (not in the Triangle) into the 14th but not Johnston County (actually in the Triangle)?

I was debating it but the remaining half of Johnson County is less populated with Fayetteville which makes things a bit weird. I could try having the 7th take in all of Cumberland but it just works out weirdly population wise.



Here's a quick attempt; Cumberland pretty much has to be split unless the 14th takes in Pender County

Cumberland may have to be split but it's better to keep Johnston whole and take less of Cumberland than more.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Senate map with 25 Biden districts.  I don't know if some deviations are too high, I just made sure they're lower than 12k.  I kept most of the proposed map's county groupings the same.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/09fda123-ab7b-4a36-8a43-719f1bfea181

Why do you put black areas of Greensboro, Charlotte, and Fayetteville with white rural/suburban areas?

For Greensboro and Fayetteville - Because Blacks would still easily control the Democratic Primaries in those districts (literally all of them).

I didn't really change much about the Charlotte districts, I tried to just copy the proposed map, no need for any changes there.  (The Fayetteville districts are changed *slightly*)

Right, but it's also a gerrymander.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Senate map with 25 Biden districts.  I don't know if some deviations are too high, I just made sure they're lower than 12k.  I kept most of the proposed map's county groupings the same.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/09fda123-ab7b-4a36-8a43-719f1bfea181

Why do you put black areas of Greensboro, Charlotte, and Fayetteville with white rural/suburban areas?

For Greensboro and Fayetteville - Because Blacks would still easily control the Democratic Primaries in those districts (literally all of them).

I didn't really change much about the Charlotte districts, I tried to just copy the proposed map, no need for any changes there.  (The Fayetteville districts are changed *slightly*)

Right, but it's also a gerrymander.

Why?  The Rockingham/Guilford district is a heck of a lot more compact that way,  the Fayetteville districts barely change (it's a difference of like 10-12 precincts) and still have the same overall shape.   There's no mandate that Black people are concentrated into districts beyond being able to elect candidates of their choice, which they can.

Because it violates communities of interest. Putting urban Fayettvile with rural Moore county reduces the ability of both to elect the candidate of their choice. Drawing urban Greensboro with Rockingham county rather than adjacent suburban or urban precincts (Rockingham/Greensboro) unites disjointed areas.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Because it violates communities of interest. Putting urban Fayettvile with rural Moore county reduces the ability of both to elect the candidate of their choice.

Moore/Fayetteville (Cumberland) is the county grouping on the proposed map.

I am aware. So rural Cumberland should go with rural Moore, and urban Cumberland should get its own district.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

This is bs and I hope the Supreme Court appeal succeeds

[Libertas Vel Mors]

No? If the 2016 map wasn't struck federally for tri cracking the Triad I don't see how this would get struck.

I agree on VRA grounds but I hope the Supreme Court strikes down the court's ability to draw congressional maps. Arizona 2015 held that commissions could be considered legislatures, but a court obviously isn't one.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Are there any grounds to strike down the new map for VRA violations? Black voters are cracked basically anywhere they exist. If the NC Dems want a court gerrymander why not get Persily or someone else who's not trash at drawing maps. 7-7 is possible without a hideous map. I was expecting that a court that struck down the original map for being too partisan wouldn't just pick a different terrible map engineered with partisan intent.

Considering that this map actually flagrantly violates Section 2 of the VRA, there are legitimate grounds for it being struck down by higher courts.

The same VRA the court doesn’t believe in?

You’re sour that the state has a FAIR map. Since we all know the GOP can’t win any branch of government if we’re actually going by majority rule not let’s rig the system

So true, putting Durham and Chapel Hill with rural red areas to unpack them is literally fairness. So is splitting Charlotte down the middle to create two blue seats.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Can't wait until this abomination is redrawn next year.

Sorry you hate fair maps. Cry more.

A fair map of North Carolina would respect communities of interest.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Can't wait until this abomination is redrawn next year.

Sorry you hate fair maps. Cry more.

A fair map of North Carolina would respect communities of interest.

This while not perfect, does a better job at that than any of the abominations the GOP drew over the last decade in NC.

No way. The original 2020s map was better.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Can't wait until this abomination is redrawn next year.

Sorry you hate fair maps. Cry more.

A fair map of North Carolina would respect communities of interest.

This while not perfect, does a better job at that than any of the abominations the GOP drew over the last decade in NC.

No way. The original 2020s map was better.

Yes because pushing a Charlotte district AND a Greensboro district WELL out into rural areas made a ton of sense from a COI point of view.  This is a much more compact map than the initial map that was passed

1. Didn't say it made sense. Just said it was better.

2. Yeah. Compact and COI violating.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Can't wait until this abomination is redrawn next year.

Sorry you hate fair maps. Cry more.

A fair map of North Carolina would respect communities of interest.

This while not perfect, does a better job at that than any of the abominations the GOP drew over the last decade in NC.

No way. The original 2020s map was better.

Yes because pushing a Charlotte district AND a Greensboro district WELL out into rural areas made a ton of sense from a COI point of view.  This is a much more compact map than the initial map that was passed

1. Didn't say it made sense. Just said it was better.

2. Yeah. Compact and COI violating.

How was the initial map better from a COI standpoint?  Greensboro all the way out to where??   South Charlotte combined with what??

Had a only in Wake district, put Durham and Chapel Hill with Cary, didn't split Charlotte in two, pretty easily better.