North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Roll Roons]

Also is there a DRA link to this map?

[Sol]

Alma Adams may not like that configuration as it appears to split the most heavily Black parts of Mecklenburg.

I can tell you this will not be an issue for her.

[Roll Roons]

Just wondering, why is it that redistricting seems to be so exceptionally contentious and painful in North Carolina even compared to other swing states?

[Sol]

Alma Adams may not like that configuration as it appears to split the most heavily Black parts of Mecklenburg.

I can tell you this will not be an issue for her.

To elaborate--Adams is a pretty reasonable, generic, progressive Democrat who has been on the record in favor of "unpacking" her district.  

Charlotte doesn't really have the same racially polarized political establishments that you see in other cities--Adams has plenty of appeal among white Democratic voters, and there aren't really enough of them in any plausible version of her district to threaten her anyway. That's not to say that there aren't racial tensions in Charlotte local politics but it's not Philly or Chicago.

Her primary weakness has been the fact that she's from Greensboro, which people seem to have forgotten.

[lfromnj]

Just wondering, why is it that redistricting seems to be so exceptionally contentious and painful in North Carolina even compared to other swing states?

Well it is its entire history of politics. Its Wisconsin but on steroids.

Unlike other southern states NC has always had a relatively stable GOP base but never enough to win the state.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1916_United_States_presidential_election_in_North_Carolina
It's a deeply polarizing state

Of the other southern states only TN is similar.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just wondering, why is it that redistricting seems to be so exceptionally contentious and painful in North Carolina even compared to other swing states?

If I had to guess: A history of court maps (encouraging people to sue against maps favoring the other side), hardball power plays from both parties (D and R), gerrymandering basically being completely okay with no limits until very recently, it being reliably contested territory in a way few other Southern states have been, and a GOP still rather new to dominating the levers of power.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Probably will be 8-6, but could be 7-7.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1496541870599847936?s=20&t=n2Riek7Y1a6...

Do we have the detailed 2020 results?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That map basically perfectly matches the partisan split of the state, with 7 seats won by Trump and Biden each, and the narrowest Biden seat is more marginal than the narrowest Trump seat.

[Stuart98]

There are so many better ways to draw a proportional map that do a much better job of preserving COIs.

[Oryxslayer]

Probably will be 8-6, but could be 7-7.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1496541870599847936?s=20&t=n2Riek7Y1a6...

Do we have the detailed 2020 results?

Not yet. The order says they attach block lists, but it doesn't. So nothing exact.

That map basically perfectly matches the partisan split of the state, with 7 seats won by Trump and Biden each, and the narrowest Biden seat is more marginal than the narrowest Trump seat.

There are so many better ways to draw a proportional map that do a much better job of preserving COIs.

These two go together perfectly. A good map from partisan lean perspective, but like say Colorado, reaches that outcome in a obtuse and weird way.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have to wonder why everybody is so allergic to just making a district that has all of Guilford and as much of Forsyth as possible. That seems like the obvious move COI-wise, and it's what the Court did last time, so why not now?

BTW, 538 seems to be treating the map as final. We'll see if they know something we don't.

[Oryxslayer]

Someone finally transcribed the block files, so we got an official DRA version.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::5a5bdb0a-4306-47c4-bc83-daff7855aa33

[GALeftist]

I have to wonder why everybody is so allergic to just making a district that has all of Guilford and as much of Forsyth as possible. That seems like the obvious move COI-wise, and it's what the Court did last time, so why not now?

BTW, 538 seems to be treating the map as final. We'll see if they know something we don't.

I think the main thing is no one has any reason to appeal. This is pretty good for Democrats and Republicans aren't getting anything better out of this court until after the elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have to wonder why everybody is so allergic to just making a district that has all of Guilford and as much of Forsyth as possible. That seems like the obvious move COI-wise, and it's what the Court did last time, so why not now?

BTW, 538 seems to be treating the map as final. We'll see if they know something we don't.

I think the main thing is no one has any reason to appeal. This is pretty good for Democrats and Republicans aren't getting anything better out of this court until after the elections.

Yeah, the map is fine from a partisan standpoint. It's just so frustrating because it's possible to make a map with similar partisanship but significantly cleaner. There's no excuse for a court to be so messy about it.

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1496553544886980614

NC-1 is comfortably Republican-voting under the VA/NJ result paradigm, since it's only Biden+7. It looks like the southern Mecklenburg seat is probably reasonably safe for Democrats nowadays even under GOP landslide conditions (though it probably voted R under these boundaries even in 2014); the Greensboro seat has something similar going.

I'd guess 9-5 for 2022 under this map, with a small Democratic recovery being good for 8-6 and a narrow Democratic year like 2020 possibly giving 7-7.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1496553544886980614

NC-1 is comfortably Republican-voting under the VA/NJ result paradigm, since it's only Biden+7. It looks like the southern Mecklenburg seat is probably reasonably safe for Democrats nowadays even under GOP landslide conditions (though it probably voted R under these boundaries even in 2014); the Greensboro seat has something similar going.

I'd guess 9-5 for 2022 under this map, with a small Democratic recovery being good for 8-6 and a narrow Democratic year like 2020 possibly giving 7-7.

Even Kay Hagan won the 2nd Charlotte seat.

[kwabbit]

NC 7-7

This would probably be 9-5 in 2022, but would be 8-6 or 7-7 in 2024 and long-term. There are non-horrendous ways to draw a 7-7 map, but it seems as though they will try to make the ugliest possible map for any certain partisan breakdown.

[BoiseBoy]

Republicans are appealing the map.

https://twitter.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1496582982047571974?s=20&t=vK9QfjU...

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1496553544886980614

NC-1 is comfortably Republican-voting under the VA/NJ result paradigm, since it's only Biden+7. It looks like the southern Mecklenburg seat is probably reasonably safe for Democrats nowadays even under GOP landslide conditions (though it probably voted R under these boundaries even in 2014); the Greensboro seat has something similar going.

I'd guess 9-5 for 2022 under this map, with a small Democratic recovery being good for 8-6 and a narrow Democratic year like 2020 possibly giving 7-7.

Even Kay Hagan won the 2nd Charlotte seat.

Per Twitter Hagan won it by a single point in a year when she ran way ahead of most North Carolina Democrats. Very obviously Generic R won there in 2014. That said, I don't think it's winnable in 2022 unless Republicans significantly out-perform VA/NJ. (Which is possible -- Trafalgar has a good track record and they seem to think this is happening -- but I think whenever any party is out to a big lead in polling it's always safer to bet on reversion to the mean).

Put another way: under VA/NJ results, or current generic ballot polling, this map is currently 9R-5D. It would take a small improvement from current numbers for Republicans to win the greatest victory in 80 years, which would make this 11R-3D. But you're probably not going to bet on that, since they're winning by a lot already and that means they have very far to fall.

[kwabbit]

Are there any grounds to strike down the new map for VRA violations? Black voters are cracked basically anywhere they exist. If the NC Dems want a court gerrymander why not get Persily or someone else who's not trash at drawing maps. 7-7 is possible without a hideous map. I was expecting that a court that struck down the original map for being too partisan wouldn't just pick a different terrible map engineered with partisan intent.

[THG]

This new map is going to the Supreme Court now:

https://twitter.com/dallaswoodhouse/status/1496609873332740098?s=21
The appeals court map is an objective monstrosity and I’m especially enraged at what they’ve done to the Charlotte area. This map is also proof that most concerns about ‘minority representation’ is nothing more than pure grandstanding.

[THG]

Are there any grounds to strike down the new map for VRA violations? Black voters are cracked basically anywhere they exist. If the NC Dems want a court gerrymander why not get Persily or someone else who's not trash at drawing maps. 7-7 is possible without a hideous map. I was expecting that a court that struck down the original map for being too partisan wouldn't just pick a different terrible map engineered with partisan intent.

Considering that this map actually flagrantly violates Section 2 of the VRA, there are legitimate grounds for it being struck down by higher courts.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

This is bs and I hope the Supreme Court appeal succeeds

[lfromnj]

No? If the 2016 map wasn't struck federally for tri cracking the Triad I don't see how this would get struck.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

No? If the 2016 map wasn't struck federally for tri cracking the Triad I don't see how this would get struck.

I agree on VRA grounds but I hope the Supreme Court strikes down the court's ability to draw congressional maps. Arizona 2015 held that commissions could be considered legislatures, but a court obviously isn't one.