Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

Kremlin: Neutral Ukraine with  own army possible compromise option

Meanwhile, some Putin crony on Russian state TV yesterday was ranting about "taking back" Alaska and Antarctica <sic> once they had restored the entire Tsarist-cum-Soviet empire.

[CumbrianLefty]

Isn't there also Poland and Finland?

[CumbrianLefty]

Kremlin: Neutral Ukraine with own army possible compromise option

That's a stark admission that Russia doesn't have the resources to occupy all of Ukraine.

Something that was fairly obvious to many of us before this war started.

[CumbrianLefty]

Honestly the peace talks have me conflicted as much as I want the killing to end any talks that don’t result in a complete Russian withdrawal of all of Ukraine, Russia paying war reparations, and the removal of Putin is quite frankly unacceptable 

That very obviously cannot be an actual demand. Though the hope must be that he is "dealt with" internally once this is over.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1504167224906600451
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1504136862277017607

Zelenskyy advisor Alexander Rodnyansky was in a German TV talkshow tonight and he said that Putin isn't actually interested in a negotiated peace, but the purpose of the talks is to buy time for Russia to get their military organized again.

I've read that another Ukrainian concern is that even if a full peace agreement was reached, Putin would simply rebuild and improve the military, preparing for another invasion.

Yes, but in reality just repeating this won't be that simple. Especially since the public insistence both at home and to abroad, until almost literally the last minute, was that there would be no invasion.

Plus any settlement short of his original "maximalist" goals is surely going to hurt Putin's position.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Case Of Russia's Apparently Back From The Dead Black Sea Warship

Tl;dr the rocket barrage against the Vasily Bykov mentioned a few days ago most likely didn't work. Ukraine was right to request anti-ship missiles.

The real takeaway from this article is that many Ukrainian reports of casualties, battlefield victories, etc, are exaggerated or outright fake news

The real takeaway from your posts is that you are the most craven and embarrassing pro-Russia shill.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Case Of Russia's Apparently Back From The Dead Black Sea Warship

Tl;dr the rocket barrage against the Vasily Bykov mentioned a few days ago most likely didn't work. Ukraine was right to request anti-ship missiles.

The real takeaway from this article is that many Ukrainian reports of casualties, battlefield victories, etc, are exaggerated or outright fake news

The real takeaway from your posts is that you are the most craven and embarrassing pro-Russia shill.

He may be, but his point is still right. Ukraine as a nation being invaded has an incentive to exaggerate to keep morale high. I support it, but you have to then take that likely bias into account when interpreting the situation on the ground.

Sure, but saying that always happens - and even that almost all their claims are made up - makes the actual lack of Russian progress even harder to explain. Exaggeration is usually not invention.

[CumbrianLefty]

They bombed Lviv, guess they seriously do want the entire country…

Not necessarily, but they do want to intimidate the entire country.

They hit Ivano-Frankovsk about a week ago, so attacking Western Ukraine is nothing new.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some of the posts above imply that Russia needs to accomplish what it wants to accomplish pretty soon (soon being undefined), before it runs out of gas as it were, as opposed to just keep grinding along indefinitely slowly wearing Ukraine down until it has nothing left. Which point of view is more accurate, and is that just an unknown. If Russia does have a limited time window to attain its objectives, does anyone have any idea how long that might be?

In truth, to a large degree it is unknowable and both viewpoints have an arguably sound basis.

What remains true, though, is that Russia in theory having enough to totally subjugate Ukraine isn't the same as their being able to do so in practice. The cost to them, both in terms of their own lives and regarding the wider effects, could at some point become too great to make that actually viable.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm pretty sure Putin is going to carry on saying the things he says until the moment there is a deal. I am even starting to think that one effectively being agreed "over his head" and then presented to him by others in the Russian power structure as a fait accompli, can no longer be ruled out.

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't want to be Dr Strangelove

.......but I will go ahead and do so anyway

[CumbrianLefty]

It has been obvious from the beginning, Putin doesn't want a diplomatic solution. While Macron and Scholz have good intentions, their calls are a waste of time. Tbh, as much as I like the bloodshed to end, at this point I don't even want a false peace agreement and forced neutrality, I hope Russia is defeated in the war, resulting in an end of Putler's reign, including a return of Crimea.

You're not alone in that sentiment.  We are on the cusp of seeing Russia lose its status as a Great Power as a result of the war in Ukraine.  And with Vladimir Putin gone and Russia much shrunken in its power and influence, there is also the prospect of a great authoritarian Eurasian Axis alliance being stillborn with the People's Republic of China being shorn of its greatest ally and left to face a vengeful West alone led by the United States. 

If this (still rather optimistic) scenario actually comes to pass, we should surely be generous* towards China rather than "vengeful". They have quite a lot to offer the world, potentially.

(*this doesn't preclude pressing them where that is required, of course)

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah...there are a few not very subtle hints that it was Germany:

"On the first day of the war, Feb. 24, Ukraine's ambassador to a very influential European country attended the office of the secretary of state of some ministry and said: "Help us, the war has begun. Help us with this and that." That person smiled sympathetically and answered: "My dear, let's be honest, why we should help you if everything ends in a maximum of 48 hours and a new reality comes." This is a specific episode that took place in an extremely influential EU country."

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1505352215782989826?s=20&t=oth05F...

Well as related before, that it would all be over in a few days was close to a consensus at the time. That is why much of the talk of helping Ukraine then related to aiding any possible insurgency.

[CumbrianLefty]

26% of 10% is not really a significant demographic though.

They are extremely loud, especially on social media.

[CumbrianLefty]

In case you have not yet, read this article. It is the ultimate roller coaster ride. Russia has already lost with its best troops, it should pick one target (east Ukraine, Kiev or Odessa), rather than three at once, but Putin runs the show and wants all three to be in the best negotiating position, Russia will be out of gas in two weeks, so it is now or never for them, but Russia can still probably win a war of attrition, and Ukraine is being worn down too,  Putin can mobilize the whole country in his chase for the white whale, and maybe get it, opposition is just in the cities, Putin controls the fake news, and on and on. Maybe you will get less sea sick than I did, on the high seas of Putin's obsessive quest, with no one to tell him enough already. The guy has some credibility in the sense he lists what he does not know, fog of war and all of that. He's a more modest than hubristic expert.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/21/michael-kofman-russia-military-expert-00018906

Oh, the image  looks like a modern children's crusade (and why would the guy on the corner who is most visible and looks like 14 be part of the propaganda message - to win favor with those into child abuse?), but then I read that Putin was like a neutron bomb that had fused Russian orthodox mysticism, hedonism and sadism into a new element, and like all new elements, a highly volatile one.

My main takeaways from the article;

- Russia has used up all of its top forces and will run out of gas soon. Time isn't on the side of Russia, but it'll be worse for Ukraine if the fighting lasts longer than a month.

- This could very well end in a "Russian win". But since they look to accomplish many things at once, their original objective of regime change seems to have been cast aside, they're not prioritizing major cities and they don't seem to have the forces/logistics to conquer Kiev, no one knows what the hell a "Russian win" actually means or looks like anymore.

The only problem with the war of attrition point is I don’t see how Putin can politically pull it off. I know he dominates the news waves in Russia but I don’t see how forced conscription or seizing private business for the war effort when the country is teetering on economic collapse doesn’t see pushback on the home front

Except for the fact that, sadly and somewhat bewilderingly, anywhere from 55-65% of the Russian people tend to lean towards supporting what they know as the 'Special Military Operation' according to most polling I've seen on the issue. Putin has done a relatively decent job at whipping up nationalistic fervor and spreading his own debauched justifications to rural Russians/Older Russians who primarily consume state news.

These figures for support in Russia (assuming they are broadly true despite the fairly obvious caveats about polling there, especially now) look fairly impressive, but the lack of *overt* enthusiasm remains striking - even that Putin rally last week was obviously artificially boosted by "bussed in" people.

Compare to taking Crimea in 2014, which saw at least semi-spontaneous displays of genuine fervour.

[CumbrianLefty]

In that situation, we could certainly make clear that Putin himself is a dead man walking. Given his widely reported fear of death, that is one thing that might just give him pause.

[CumbrianLefty]

[/quote]smallest US nuke on city hall, as you can see, you'd be fine if you were at Battery Park.

1.a baby nuke couldn't destroy Peoria
2.they wouldn't use a "baby" nuke on NYC
3.if they did, you'd be fine


[/quote]

Even a "baby nuke" dropped in that location would likely kill over 10k people, mind.

[CumbrianLefty]

There are signs that PRC and India relations might be moving toward a thaw since the 2020 border conflict.  You can see media on both sides advocating closer ties to counter what both see as annoying badgering from the USA and the collective West on the Russian-Ukraine conflict.

Well that in itself is surely good, regardless of the actual reason.

[CumbrianLefty]

So much disinfo and wishcasting. It's okay to condemn Russia but let's be honest about this situation.

90% of this thread is misinformation as it is gathered from total misinformation from Twitter.......followed by 10% wishcasting. Interesting choice of word, but it fits well.

You are spot on.

I would not suggest reporting on any war has ever been any different.

Quick reminder, again, that some people said the very same in late February about 24-48 hours after the invasion began when tweets around here were posted that indicated that the Russian offensive was in trouble and wouldn't be able to take Kyiv immediately. Turns out those early tweets that depicted the Russians to be in trouble were entirely correct, especially considering that Zelennskyy is still president after all that time. Your concerns have been proven wrong by the practical experience of the past four weeks.

/snip

It honestly feels like folks are still in denial that Russia could screw up this invasion as badly as they have. Let alone the fact that we're entering the 5th week of the 3 day invasion & not only has Kiev not fallen, but Ukraine is now in a position to possibly encircle Russian troops & reclaim lost territory.

Yes, just ask yourself where Russia expected to be a month after invading.

Not where they currently are, that at least is pretty certain. And tbh puts the previous complaint that this thread is just uncritical pro-Ukrainian propaganda into some sort of perspective.

[CumbrianLefty]

Earlier on in this conflict, certain people were fond of making comparisons with the 2003 Iraq invasion to claim that "Russia is doing great, really". Those takes have gone quiet lately, for some reason - maybe that by the time 28 days elapsed then, the US had taken every significant urban centre.

[CumbrianLefty]

So much disinfo and wishcasting. It's okay to condemn Russia but let's be honest about this situation.

90% of this thread is misinformation as it is gathered from total misinformation from Twitter.......followed by 10% wishcasting. Interesting choice of word, but it fits well.

You are spot on.

I would not suggest reporting on any war has ever been any different.

 You say this in a tone that implies you have have specialized knowledge as to "what's supposedly REALLY going on".  Pray, do educate us.

MIGHTY RUSSIA is achieving a GLORIOUS VICTORY in CLEANSING UKRAINE OF NAZIS, of course!

But you won't read/hear/see anything about this in our bIaSeD cOrPoRaTe MsM!!??!??!!111!!!!

[CumbrianLefty]

If the goal is to actively cut the supply line, I still think a Zaporizhzhia->Vasylivka->Melitpol offensive would be better. Even then taking Melitopol would be extremely difficult and could result in a humiliating withdrawal.

(Or just do a #bigbrain move and do a landing from Nikopol to Enerhodar across the Dnieper, totally)

It’s heartening to see that Atlas is in the presence of a genius of military tactics.

Be fair. The Russian generals aren't Vladimir Putin isn't doing much better.

Corrected for greater accuracy

[CumbrianLefty]

His brain really has rotted away, hasn't it?

[CumbrianLefty]

Is his death now officially confirmed? An hour or two ago people were still disputing it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe it was noted above, but Biden saying Putin cannot remain in power, and the  the White House saying that does not mean regime change because Biden meant that Putin cannot have power over Russia's neighbors, is pretty pathetic. If Biden has that much trouble with words that important, he should read his speech word for word. If he meant what he said, then obviously the prep before hand was poor.

Addendum: I see that it was. I still think its pretty embarrassing.

Maybe its just me......but it can be argued this is the US using the same sort of "plausible deniability" schtick that is, after all, regularly deployed by Russia?

But I can see why "senile Biden makes gaffe" is more attractive as a narrative for some