Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

Would Ukraine still be able to join the EU?

Uncertain, though due to EU's criteria and inner politics more than any military situation. Turkey's beef over Cyprus is keeping them out and Spain might be afraid Catalonia will declare independence if Ukraine's allowed in with territorial disputes. The Ukrainian government still needs to meet standards regarding public official/law enforcement corruption.

Moreover, the Kremlin is calling for no foreign troops not only in Ukraine, but for all foreign troops to leave the former Warsaw Pact/USSR nations which have since joined NATO/EU. That should signal what the Kremlin's ambitions are.

That is one of the most bellicose "peace" plans ever written. Putin is still on his mad dash into hell. I am pessimistic that he will be deflected from his intended destination.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1504100947605217291

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1504100947605217291

Saw reports of that earlier, but trying to minimize my direct quotes from media sources.

Still, looking a lot like.... Too bad Fox News didn't experience a similar exodus a year or so back...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1504167224906600451
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1504136862277017607

Zelenskyy advisor Alexander Rodnyansky was in a German TV talkshow tonight and he said that Putin isn't actually interested in a negotiated peace, but the purpose of the talks is to buy time for Russia to get their military organized again.

I've read that another Ukrainian concern is that even if a full peace agreement was reached, Putin would simply rebuild and improve the military, preparing for another invasion.

Honestly what the US needs to do, whenever the war ends, is make an agreement, treaty, alliance, pact, or whatever that if Ukraine is attacked, the US/NATO will defend it. Putin would not have invaded if US/NATO intervention was a consequence. End of story.

[NOVA Green]

Now at three pages. I can only imagine how many junior officers and enlisted the Russians have lost. I'd be calling up the South Ossetians too.

https://twitter.com/4ukraine834614/status/1504205262458077196?s=20&t=E7d9yaf...

Don't believe it's been mentioned yet, but that list appears to include yet another Russian Major General...

Oleg Mityaev Commander of the 150th Rifle Division....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleg_Mityaev_(general)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/150th_Rifle_Division

Ukrainian Forces claimed to have killed the commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army’s 150th Motor Rifle Division near Mariupol on March 15. If confirmed, Miyaev would be the fourth Russian general officer killed in Ukraine; his death would be a major blow to the 150th Motor Rifle Division, Russia’s principal maneuver unit in Donbas.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-16

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Case Of Russia's Apparently Back From The Dead Black Sea Warship

Tl;dr the rocket barrage against the Vasily Bykov mentioned a few days ago most likely didn't work. Ukraine was right to request anti-ship missiles.

[Storr]

It's interesting that this is coming from the French, who have been one of the bigger proponents of diplomatic efforts involving Russia and Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1504263929983295488?s=20&t=LBnMGA2K37n...

[Storr]

Bruh moment:

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1504298167348641798?s=20&t=F_68tgq9lHB...

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1504167224906600451
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1504136862277017607

Zelenskyy advisor Alexander Rodnyansky was in a German TV talkshow tonight and he said that Putin isn't actually interested in a negotiated peace, but the purpose of the talks is to buy time for Russia to get their military organized again.

I've read that another Ukrainian concern is that even if a full peace agreement was reached, Putin would simply rebuild and improve the military, preparing for another invasion.

Honestly what the US needs to do, whenever the war ends, is make an agreement, treaty, alliance, pact, or whatever that if Ukraine is attacked, the US/NATO will defend it. Putin would not have invaded if US/NATO intervention was a consequence. End of story.

Why would US troops put their lives on the line for other countries pre-war? These countries tax payers send nothing to the US.

The only time they like the US is when they are in trouble. The remainder of the time they say the US is giant and stupid. Look at France.

I think the US is tired of being the World police and has lost the appetite to be fighting these wars.

At this stage, if Putin invaded Canada, the US would say "too far away" for us to get involved.

The US has to fix itself at home before spending another 4-6 trillion dollars on wars that don't need waging.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504142139101483025

Beyond thrilled about this, but I don't see why this didn't happen two weeks ago. Can't get over the fact that some artillery and cruise missile targets could have been taken out and therefore saved a lot of civilian life and prevented a lot of destruction.

Edit: fml, nevermind....they're not predators like I imagined

[Yoda]

Definitely not concerning language from Putin:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504117674934247432?s=20&t=Zj9hz4g...

"self-purification of the society"

But remember boys and girls, it's Ukraine that needs to be de-Nazified...

[Yoda]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

If this deal happens, hypothetically, do the sanctions end?

I don't think so and certainly hope not. The Russians have committed numerous war crimes and Putin is responsible for thousands of deaths. Just because he stops the killing after having failed to win the war, we can't just return to business as usual and pretend all of that never happened.

I second this. The sanctions, in my mind, can't even begin to be talked about ending until Russia has paid for all of the damage they have done. They owe reparations to the families of all the Ukrainians they have murdered, and they must pay to rebuild all of the buildings and infrastructure they have destroyed. If the ~$400 billion in Russian deposits or so that the US and other countries have frozen is enough to cover this by the time the war is over, fine. If not, Russia has to pony up.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Bruh moment:

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1504298167348641798?s=20&t=F_68tgq9lHB...

And yet they're still expected to be the clear "victors". At least according to conventional wisdom

[Hindsight was 2020]

Honestly the peace talks have me conflicted as much as I want the killing to end any talks that don’t result in a complete Russian withdrawal of all of Ukraine, Russia paying war reparations, and the removal of Putin is quite frankly unacceptable 

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504142139101483025

Just to temper the sentiment, it appears at first glance that these are merely reconnaissance drones (TUAS; akin to the Russian one that Ukrainians shot down after flying into Poland/Romania) and not Predator/Bayraktar TB2 UAV drones.

They would just be intelligence gathering drones.

Biden has illustrated a clear picture that the US are not getting involved with bullets and tanks.

I think it's good that he drew a line in the sand.

I'm pretty sure we just gave them 20 million bullets in the latest aid package.

[NOVA Green]

Japanese MoD reports (4) Russian Warships heading to Ukraine...

Gotta check out the vessel numbers and naturally Japan's Navy is not going to intervene...

Not gonna quote, but images seem legit, regardless of wherever the ships are going towards.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-17-22/h_a6a95150fccc3376ef65294f93cef653

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Meanwhile... totally get it that the overwhelming majority of y'all don't like me, don't agree with my posts, and basically have me on virtual ignore, not planning on shutting up quite yet (Regardless of whomever the narc was who snitched me out last night... Karma will beat your Dogma any hour of any day of any week).

What gives you that impression?

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1504157074372108300?s=20&t=Zf2RGNOBURt...

Also, I am not the 'Oryx' who is nicely posting military updates on twitter btw.

 This is effing excellent. I hope most literal kidnapping criminals posing as real soldiers who Committed this war crime kidnapping him all died a very gory and painful death.

These were not some poor conscripts who have nothing to do with Putin or his foreign policy, but special forces with the ugliest reputation in the world.. H*** is just a little bit Fuller with their deaths

[Badger]

Russian officers at the front: "Don't worry lads, the South Ossetians are coming!"

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1504056749229326343?s=20&t=YP_9vqyiY3H...

South Ossetia apparently has 2,500 active duty personnel and fifteen tanks:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_South_Ossetia

 And presumably they're not sending their entire force, or even most of it.

[Badger]

Meanwhile... totally get it that the overwhelming majority of y'all don't like me, don't agree with my posts, and basically have me on virtual ignore, not planning on shutting up quite yet (Regardless of whomever the narc was who snitched me out last night... Karma will beat your Dogma any hour of any day of any week).

What gives you that impression?

It's okay.

I know what I did and accept responsibility for my actions and will attempt to "shut up" to the best of my abilities.

Not about me on this thread, although in the almost 50 years of my life in all sorts of IRL experiences never ever been a snitch or a narc, so let that lay on the moral consciousness of whomever went down that route.

Can't discuss this topic any more within this venue, but as it is suspect have been wasting way too many hours of my life providing reports from various media outlets, rather than shifting my energy elsewhere on broader Social Media outlets.

Will continue to lurk and occasionally provide updates, but don't really expect much in the way of actual written word content anymore except within extremely condensed content, which effectively for substantive content is the equivalent of neutering a male cat.

 Whatever it is, man, it can't be that bad. I for one think you're a great poster and your posts about this war are particularly valuable.

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504142139101483025

Just to temper the sentiment, it appears at first glance that these are merely reconnaissance drones (TUAS; akin to the Russian one that Ukrainians shot down after flying into Poland/Romania) and not Predator/Bayraktar TB2 UAV drones.

They would just be intelligence gathering drones.

Biden has illustrated a clear picture that the US are not getting involved with bullets and tanks.

I think it's good that he drew a line in the sand.

I'm pretty sure we just gave them 20 million bullets in the latest aid package.

I was meaning active shooters on the ground. If the US goes in, there will be blood.

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-17/volodomyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-leadership-transformed-by-war/100886298

"There have been comparisons with Britain’s WWII prime minister Winston Churchill "

[ugabug]

Between this and the whole encouraging patent theft i can't help but think that even if/when sanctions get lifted from Russia. Companies may be more careful in the future about doing business in Russia now.

Russia is seizing hundreds of commercial jets owned by US and European leasing companies, a further sign of the challenges the country's airline industry faces due to sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin signed a law Monday as part of the government's anti-sanction measures that will allow Russian airlines to register planes leased from foreign companies in Russia, where they will be issued local certificates of airworthiness, according to a statement from the Kremlin.

The bill will make it possible for Russian airlines to keep their foreign leased aircraft and operate the planes on domestic routes, while making it harder for foreign companies to reclaim their jets without Russian government approval.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/16/business/russia-aircraft-seizure/index.html

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1504336242997174274?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

[CumbrianLefty]

Honestly the peace talks have me conflicted as much as I want the killing to end any talks that don’t result in a complete Russian withdrawal of all of Ukraine, Russia paying war reparations, and the removal of Putin is quite frankly unacceptable 

That very obviously cannot be an actual demand. Though the hope must be that he is "dealt with" internally once this is over.