Survey Atlasia - August At-large Senate Elections Poll

[Meeker]

I will never understand why there are 5 seats and only two JCP candidates. How could progressives reconquer the Senate if we don't even have enough candidates to have a majority ??

Because you can't win five seats.

If you don't try, sure that you can't.

No, it has to do with how the preference math works. If we run too many candidates than we risk splitting votes to the point of not having any viable candidates.

[Meeker]

I will never understand why there are 5 seats and only two JCP candidates. How could progressives reconquer the Senate if we don't even have enough candidates to have a majority ??

Because you can't win five seats.

If you don't try, sure that you can't.

No, it has to do with how the preference math works. If we run too many candidates than we risk splitting votes to the point of not having any viable candidates.

The STV system is done precisely to avoid this threat by chosing the 5 candidates that are most representative of the electorate.

Representative of the electorate, not the JCP. It's next to impossible for one of the three major parties to win more than two seats in the current climate.

[Meeker]

Don't get me wrong, I did preface my remarks by saying first preferences would clearly not reflect those numbers. I'm just saying that the will of active members shows that the DA candidates are clearly most wanted in the Senate. How it will turn out? I can't see the JCP not getting one seat, or even two. This poll is more indicative of the party itself than future election results.

I'd happily vote for five JCP'ers if that was an option in this poll... but it's not, so I voted for the JCP and then the DA because I don't want the RPP to have seats.

Don't mistake the JCP not wanting the RPP and the RPP not wanting the JCP for the DA being widely loved. There's a reason you guys are the smallest major party.

[Meeker]

I feel like I'm talking to myself here. No where did I say we were "beloved" or "especially good". I said that this poll indicates that the three DA candidates are, for whatever reason, wanted back in the Senate. It is actually the voting system that obstructs this, because first preferences are so important. But clearly each party prefers the DA candidates over those of the other party.

The DA candidates are wanted back in the Senate, that's what I'm saying. Feel free to spin the reason however you want, but the fact remains.

The poll shows that the 3 DA Senators are generally the least objectionable candidates. The poll though was never going to reveal any useful information for the upcoming election. Nor is it the fault of the voting system that the DA won't retain their seats this time - the party just doesn't have the support.

Judging by the last election, we're looking at a quota of around 13 voters. Assuming the standard GOTV efforts and given the undying party loyalties involved, the RPP and JCP should easily get 2 quotas each, leaving only 1 other seat up for grabs.

Really, you guys need to start reading what I'm writing. I already prefaced my remarks by saying that this does not in any way reflect the voting outcome, as the system is based on first preferences and not on overall preferences. I accept that and I'm not looking to overhaul the system.

Whether you want to spin it as least objectionable, most liked, whatever, that doesn't change the fact that the three DA candidates are wanted in the Senate.

No you guys aren't. Neither the JCP nor the RPP want you guys in the Senate. However, since we want the other guys even less, we go with you.

You can say that "the three DA candidates are not wanted less in the Senate" or something, but to say that you're "wanted" is misleading and false.