Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Person Man]

Did the primaries really change the trajectory that much?

[Person Man]

Did the primaries really change the trajectory that much?

Well, a lot of the number crunchers went into this with the assumption that the VA State Senate would close to Likely D while the HoD would be a toss up.  However, several things have happened to change this assessment leading to a place where both chambers could reasonably flip:

1. A 20/20 tie in the state senate goes to R's through the LG, while a 50/50 tie in the HoD cannot be broken and leads to power sharing unless someone switches parties (note there are no remaining rural Dems in the HoD who would obviously consider switching).

2. Individual candidates matter more in the smaller state senate.  Both of the strong Dem incumbents in Lean R rural-ish districts retired and R's nominated their strongest candidate in every one of the several Lean R Biden +5-10/Youngkin +5-10 seats.  They also a Susan Collins type candidate who is a moderately pro-choice OBGYN who already won a significantly Clinton 2016 district in the 2019 elections running in a Richmond area Dem-leaning seat (admittedly, it's a stretch at Biden +16, but D's will at the very least have to divert resources there).  If she gets through and R's win all of the Lean R districts, they have tied even without the median Biden +13/Youngkin +1 district.  However, this cuts the other way in the HoD because R's need to sweep several Biden +12ish districts with anonymous people.  

3. Outer NOVA is shaky.  The VA-10 area contains the most likely decisive seat for state senate control and it barely voted left of 2021 Youngkin/McAuliffe in the 2022 US House elections.  The Biden numbers probably don't work there anymore.

4. On the other hand, downstate college towns look great for Dems and turnout was surprisingly high in these areas in the primary.  Many of the decisive seats are anchored by college towns.  There's also a seat in the Richmond suburbs that is racing left.  Biden barely won it, but then it voted for McAuliffe in 2021 and the no-name congressional Dem in 2022.  They only need to win a couple of these seats to count to 50.  

Respectfully, I think your analysis here is fundamentally flawed in that you seem to be implicitly treating Youngkin numbers as more significant than the Biden 2020 numbers.  The Biden 2020 numbers are far more useful as a baseline than the Youngkin 2021 numbers.  The latter were basically the perfect storm, tsunami-level Republican wave absolute high-water mark for Virginia Republicans in NOVA.  While neither data set represents a perfect baseline, it would be a mistake to treat the Youngkin numbers in NOVA as anything more than a freak fluke.  It'd be like treating the 2021 New Jersey Governor results as the default baseline in New Jersey going forward.

Wasn’t 2022 almost the average of 2020 and 2021?

[Person Man]

I’m already seeing abortion ads on YT.

[Person Man]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/political-analyst-says-candidate-caught-on-tape-advocating-for-total-ban-on-abortion-is-a-disaster-for-republicans/

What do you think about the Senate?

I think Dems are taking the outer Loudoun and outer Richmond seats (the latter is quite Dem on paper but has Virginia's version of Susan Collins holding it) for granted so a 20/20 tie with R control through the LG is still a real possibility.  Range is probably pretty narrow now- 20 to 23 Dems.  Most likely is probably still 21.

That Richmond Republican only beat a weak Dem opponent by two points in 2019 in a district that was about seven points more Republican.  This time she faces a much better Dem opponent.

I also think Monty Mason has a much better chance than many think to hold on in the Tidewater.  Biden still won his new district by 9 and Dems won it in the 2022 House elections.

If 2023 is a rehash of 2022, Democrats win.

[Person Man]

co/efficient (R) has D+1

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1699087583613993354

What does a D+1 topline probably give us?

[Person Man]

Dem candidate in a competitive ... Rich District North of Richmond made and posted public sex tapes. In a closely divided district like this one, anything could matter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/09/11/susanna-gibson-sex-website-virginia-candidate/

who cares what she does in the privacy of her own home?

She has a good marriage annd she is proud of her marriage and that’s bad?

I mean think about it. Why is someone running on trying to make someone’s medical and sexual behavior a part of the role of government when they publicly disseminated the sexual behavior of their opponent, who is a woman, working on her marriage? This is some spectral sh**t.


If this ends up working, nothing’s off limits. My counterpunch to this would be an AI deepfake if this creep banging a sheep to be honest. Seriously. Whoever is changing their vote because of this is a goddamn pig!

And guys wonder why they can’t get laid.

[Person Man]

Dem candidate in a competitive ... Rich District North of Richmond made and posted public sex tapes. In a closely divided district like this one, anything could matter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/09/11/susanna-gibson-sex-website-virginia-candidate/

who cares what she does in the privacy of her own home?

She has a good marriage annd she is proud of her marriage and that’s bad?

I mean think about it. Why is someone running on trying to make someone’s medical and sexual behavior a part of the role of government when they publicly disseminated the sexual behavior of their opponent, who is a woman, working on her marriage? This is some spectral sh**t.


If this ends up working, nothing’s off limits. My counterpunch to this would be an AI deepfake if this creep banging a sheep to be honest. Seriously. Whoever is changing their vote because of this is a goddamn pig!

And guys wonder why they can’t get laid.

The fundamental question here is are there a significant number of people in this district (and perhaps statewide) who 1. believe any public discussion of sex (perhaps particularly by a woman) is inappropriate and disqualifying for a leadership position and 2. are otherwise open to voting Dem

I don't know?  This seems high risk/high reward.  It isn't about the "20th century was a mistake" people.  They were never voting for her or any modern Dem to begin with.  It probably does give this district to the R's because of an instinctual "ewww, that's gross" reaction among "proper" suburban types who are voting Dem in part because they similarly grossed out by Trump's sexual exploits, but it also risks sending a bunch of social libertarians over to the Dems statewide and/or generating near presidential level turnout from young single women. 

IMO making the whole election about gender issues = a statewide R loss in VA, but we will see.

I can buy that. This is what something like this does.

[Person Man]

A lot of this boils down to are people comfortable with a woman expressing her sexuality. For a lot of people in this thread comparing a consensual act in a heterosexual marriage to a man cheating on his wife or a woman sleeping with her subordinate the answer seems to be no.

Like I said, how this goes down will say more about the voters than the woman herself.

[Person Man]

The Democratic cope in this thread is nuts.  She should drop out immediately and if she doesn’t then she’ll blow the race.  Simple as that.

A lot of people are saying many things.

That was not intentional

Exactly. This is what I’m talking about. We have these weird allegations from a nationalist tabloid. Let’s see what happens.

[Person Man]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/virginia-democrat-who-raised-money-by-selling-sex-acts-could-be-charged-with-prostitution-lawyers-say
Seems like the GOP operator was basically doing media bait on liberal publications. He could have given it to say the dailywire first but seems he gave it to the AP who not only refused to report it but actually tipped Gibson off.  Seems the WaPo did decide to report it.

Good for them

[Person Man]

Apparently Joe Szymanski has access to some internals. It would be interesting to see what they say.

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1703188787658903575

Wonder what it could be

[Person Man]

I hope non swing voter returns.

but in seriousness, I think VA kind of heart breaks both parties. The democrats thinking it will be a hard progressive state, and the republicans who think it will vote like the 90s without Trump in office have all been proven wrong

It could go like Florida if Democrats have zero charisma with nonwhites or like Maryland if they do better with kids and vets. It will probably be like New Hampshire, Maine, New Mexico, or Minnesota.

[Person Man]

It goes both ways. This could be what it takes to make her lose so it obviously matters, but the fact that she can still win in spite of it is a sign of where our politics are at.

With everything else going on, and even then, this shouldn’t matter.

[Person Man]

It goes both ways. This could be what it takes to make her lose so it obviously matters, but the fact that she can still win in spite of it is a sign of where our politics are at.

With everything else going on, and even then, this shouldn’t matter.

Exposing yourself to hotel employees would truly be disqualifying IMO if that part is confirmed.

Agree but it’s been 3 days and nothing.

[Person Man]

Seems like things are shifting the Democratic direction here. I think the possibility that the result mirrors special elections and the Democrats win comfortable majorities is quite high. Even the best indicators for the GOP don't suggest that they will be winning Biden +~10 seats in the suburbs. A special election in that type of seat would yield a Dem+20 result looking at the results of other specials.

Perhaps the added voters going from low to moderate turnout are extremely GOP and the VA legislative elections can end up in a sweet spot, but that doesn't seem likely.

Where would that put us if we were looking at the Democrats landed between Hillary and Biden or slightly better than Biden?

[Person Man]

Seems like things are shifting the Democratic direction here. I think the possibility that the result mirrors special elections and the Democrats win comfortable majorities is quite high. Even the best indicators for the GOP don't suggest that they will be winning Biden +~10 seats in the suburbs. A special election in that type of seat would yield a Dem+20 result looking at the results of other specials.

Perhaps the added voters going from low to moderate turnout are extremely GOP and the VA legislative elections can end up in a sweet spot, but that doesn't seem likely.

Where would that put us if we were looking at the Democrats landed between Hillary and Biden or slightly better than Biden?

Matching Hillary would be 23D/17R in the state senate, but in practice there is a very R trending Hillary 2016 seat and very D trending Trump 2016 seat, so they probably lose the former and win the latter.  Slightly exceeding Biden everywhere would get them to 26D/14R (this would involve winning Trump +1 and Trump +2 open seat districts that are pretty rural).

In the HoD, matching Hillary would result in a narrow Dem majority, but I don't have exact numbers.  Think 53D/47R or something.  Slightly exceeding Biden would almost surely yield a Dem supermajority in the HoD as there are a ton of Lean R districts.

The deciding seat for a Dem supermajority in the state senate would be Trump +6 2020, but it was also Youngkin +15 in 2021 and R+9 in 2022 and the crazy R incumbent already lost to a normal person in the primary, so that seems totally out of reach.

I could this election being an accurate snapshot of what would happen if this was 2024 but the environment would likely be different by then.

[Person Man]

Seems like things are shifting the Democratic direction here. I think the possibility that the result mirrors special elections and the Democrats win comfortable majorities is quite high. Even the best indicators for the GOP don't suggest that they will be winning Biden +~10 seats in the suburbs. A special election in that type of seat would yield a Dem+20 result looking at the results of other specials.

Perhaps the added voters going from low to moderate turnout are extremely GOP and the VA legislative elections can end up in a sweet spot, but that doesn't seem likely.

Where would that put us if we were looking at the Democrats landed between Hillary and Biden or slightly better than Biden?

Matching Hillary would be 23D/17R in the state senate, but in practice there is a very R trending Hillary 2016 seat and very D trending Trump 2016 seat, so they probably lose the former and win the latter.  Slightly exceeding Biden everywhere would get them to 26D/14R (this would involve winning Trump +1 and Trump +2 open seat districts that are pretty rural).

In the HoD, matching Hillary would result in a narrow Dem majority, but I don't have exact numbers.  Think 53D/47R or something.  Slightly exceeding Biden would almost surely yield a Dem supermajority in the HoD as there are a ton of Lean R districts.

The deciding seat for a Dem supermajority in the state senate would be Trump +6 2020, but it was also Youngkin +15 in 2021 and R+9 in 2022 and the crazy R incumbent already lost to a normal person in the primary, so that seems totally out of reach.

I could this election being an accurate snapshot of what would happen if this was 2024 but the environment would likely be different by then.

Disagree on that part.  If this scenario actually played out, a big part of the reason would be that low turnout now benefits Dems (especially in very college+ states).  Of the different election years, I would expect modern Dems to do worst with presidential level turnout going forward, everywhere except the Deep South. 

That’s really hard to wrap a head around going forward

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1704918721976844675?s=20

And how long ago was this?

he was born in 1956 so we are talking are  talking mid 70s here.

The article says 1989 (and he was born in 1967).

Anyway I don't think this has any legs to do damage. Northam made a mess of his situation in large part by having an abysmal response and I have a hard time seeing Mason doing anything near as bad. Even still I have a hard time believing that either AA blue collar workers in Newport News or college kids and professors in Williamsburg will care about this enough to sit out the race.

Also the D+1 refers to the 2022 House Race which was an R overperformance. Going back further, it's Youngkin +3, Kaine +13, Northam +6, and Clinton+3 according to VPAP. Obviously an R upset is possible but I don't think this scandal makes it especially likely.

So basically Dems are probably fine provided they actually win the popular vote.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1704918721976844675?s=20

And how long ago was this?

he was born in 1956 so we are talking are  talking mid 70s here.

The article says 1989 (and he was born in 1967).

Anyway I don't think this has any legs to do damage. Northam made a mess of his situation in large part by having an abysmal response and I have a hard time seeing Mason doing anything near as bad. Even still I have a hard time believing that either AA blue collar workers in Newport News or college kids and professors in Williamsburg will care about this enough to sit out the race.

Also the D+1 refers to the 2022 House Race which was an R overperformance. Going back further, it's Youngkin +3, Kaine +13, Northam +6, and Clinton+3 according to VPAP. Obviously an R upset is possible but I don't think this scandal makes it especially likely.

TBH looks kind of desperate digging into college pranks that aren't illegal for scandals.  Reminds me a lot of this ad from Jack Conway in Kentucky back in 2010:

https://www.wsj.com/video/attack-ad-aqua-buddha/1FAB16E9-998F-4358-9264-8B8A75F7CC1F.html

And it’s a pattern here.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1705220520910675993

Focusing on abortion when they are already are on the defensive about it seems to be dumb.

[Person Man]

A GOP pollster has the VA leg generic ballot tied, 41-41.

Weird crosstabs though and has a 2021 recall at Youngkin +8

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1704856747842883686

Update: this is co/efficient, which given their horrific pro-GOP bias last year, makes this poll even better for Dems than originally thought

So Democrats are probably winning mid-single digits. I mean, they had Masters and Doctor Ass up a couple and they lost by 5. It would be a reasonable result given that they have nearly 20% undecided and their sample is 6% more Republican than the state.

[Person Man]

VA Early Voters as of 9/25/23: 17,873  

59% D / 34% R

54% Female, 46% Men
69% 55+ / 7% 18-29
70% White/13% AA/3 % Hispanic/3% Asian
50%+ have a Bach Degree+
18% Urban/49% Suburban/32% Rural

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1706392656866152584

What was it in prior years? Do we have a useful frame of reference?

Later: I see it was like 59-41 in 2021. That probably doesn’t mean anything though.

[Person Man]

I voted.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status/1708950893410807856?s=20

https://twitter.com/RTDSchapiro/status/1708818363500126314?s=20

I honestly think that this race has been nationalized because of abortion and Youngkin’s credibility as being a conservative governor in a blue state. If Republicans sweep, I think the morning line for 2024 is a toss-up though the campaign itself might make it move substantially. I think if things kind of cancel eachother out, I think we can move VA back to Lean D. The Dems barely sweeping keeps it Likely D, but a clear overperformance probably starts it at Safe D.

[Person Man]

I wonder if the entire speaker ordeal hurts VA Republicans right now.

I hope that this election sends the right message on this.