2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Person Man]

More vote out of Allegheny, Biden's lead 54K now statewide.

Joe Biden 3,390,729
Donald Trump 3,336,751

About ~8K provisionals out of Allegheny broke 55-45 for Biden. ~4K provisionals from Delaware Co broke 63-36.

About ~2K more provisionals out of Allegheny. Biden nets another 600k votes. Up 54.6K statewide now.

Joe Biden 3,393,231
Donald Trump 3,338,645

Atleast ~7K more provisionals left in Allegheny, with ~20K left in Philly. Also ~10K mail ins left in Philly/Allegheny.

Biden will get to 50% but Trump may slightly over perform Casey’s predictions.

[Person Man]

NPR article on how the Navajo vote swung Arizona to Biden:

https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-2020-election-results/2020/11/13/934591289/how-the-navajo-nation-helped-flip-arizona-for-democrats

My con law instructor in Undergrad said that this would happen.

[Person Man]

And from my Point of view there should be Criminal Investigations by the Senate into the Polling Industry as well as how Networks call Races. FOX bad call about AZ clouded the entire Election Night Coverage not to mention the early House Call by FOX particularly with the underlining Headline "Democrats expand Majority" which is nowhere near true.

What crimes have been committed?

Kafkesque

[Person Man]

When it comes to the polling the biggest thing I take away from 2020 is that if you are a candidate whose party is currently in the white house like Hillary in 2016 or a siting president like Trump 2020

you had better be at or above 50 percent approval by election day otherwise its game over

In 2024 if Harris runs and I'm seeing polling showing her consistently struggling to get to 50 percent approval like Hillary did...... I think The GOP is going to take back the whitehouse

Obama and Bush were in the 40s too. It’s just that there wasn’t a clear majority of people that had a clear opinion about them one way or another. Obama was at 45. Bush was at 45. Their disapproval was also 45. Trump was close or at 45 but had a disapproval at 51 or 52. He only got 47% of the vote.

[Person Man]

More details on the Floyd County issue in the Georgia recount:

“There’s no issues with any of the equipment; I think they just didn’t scan these ballots,” Gabriel Sterling with the secretary of state’s office said. “ So the secretary, since this is such an amazing blunder and they had issues in August, would like to see that elections director step down from his position — because this was too important of an issue to allow to happen this way.”

According to the Rome News-Tribune, 1,643 votes were for President Donald Trump and 865 were for Democrat Joe Biden in the heavily Republican northwest Georgia county. That trims the margin that Biden is currently leading by about 800 votes, but nowhere near enough to affect the outcome.

“That county is the only county we've seen an issue like this so far,” Sterling said. “And again, it's unfortunate, but it's not an equipment issue. It's a person not executing their job properly.”

https://www.gpb.org/news/2020/11/17/battleground-blog-2500-more-votes-discovered-in-floyd-county-during-audit

Real "Waukesha County 2011" vibes here.

This link is too long. Fix it, please.

How much longer until it’s done?

[Person Man]

We need to start holding news organizations accountable.  Bring back equal-time rule and ban spread of misinformation on cable TV now!~

We need to ban cultural marxism, anti-family idiocy, and other such idiocy. Bring back traditonal families and values that have worked for thousands of years.
No more pushing of ideas that fail and cause more pain and suffering.

Well uh... gee... no one is seeing the irony between Jess and DS?

What is Cultural Marxism anyways? The ironic thing is that those who complain about Social Marxism are literally social marxists.

[Person Man]

We need to start holding news organizations accountable.  Bring back equal-time rule and ban spread of misinformation on cable TV now!~

We need to ban cultural marxism, anti-family idiocy, and other such idiocy. Bring back traditonal families and values that have worked for thousands of years.
No more pushing of ideas that fail and cause more pain and suffering.

Hear ye, hear ye, all in favor of ethnic cleansing say "Aye!"

All opposed, "No!"

And just so you know us LGBT people are already flaming so burning us on a cross won't do any good.

That's exactly why I didn't buy into the idea that "Jessica" is a decent Republican poster. What is "Cultural Marxism" anyway? Sounds just like another term to justify maintaining racism and bigotry.

“Civil Rights are Communism”. In reality, Social Marxism is what happens when you are concerned about what the free market is doing to your traditions. To me, it potentially defines anyone outside the Overton Window and isn’t some sort of libertarian anarchist nut.

[Person Man]

Yes the Bradley effect, after Tom Bradley the Black mayor of Los Angeles, who twice failed to be elected Governor despite polls saying he would win. But the consensus seems to be that is not what is happening now. What is happening now is that Republicans simply refuse to engage with polls - they hang up when a poll calls them, whether it's a live call or a robocall. They do this for the same reason they no longer watch the network news or read newspapers. They have retreated into Trumpworld, a fantasy world where they can believe their own facts, and they won't let anyone in from the real world outside. That's also the only possible explanation for 70 million people voting for the most disastrous failure in the history of US government.

How do we protect ourselves from people this untrustworthy and unreliable?

I hope that 2022 polls are as good as 2018 ones. But even then, Florida was a good mess.

[Person Man]

So basically Trump is trying to win the election by retroactively cancelling it.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1329424101291814914

So Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona are going to be certified or...

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/AmyEGardner/status/1329468989983125505
Looks like they're going for the coup in Michigan.

It’s not even a remotely close state, about as close as Florida is. Who’s to say there wasn’t mass fraud there? Again, Miami-Dade results seem fishy to me so we gotta overturn the whole outcome.

Yeah. There was no major election fraud/ voter fraud in this election. But if ANYTHING is amiss, its what happens year after year in Florida.

[Person Man]

The main issue is that the GOP at all level from local, to state to national are outwardly anti-democratic and have open and public disdain for the democratic process. They have increasing disdain for the cities and city-centered government. The next Trump to come along if he or she ascends power will never let that power go. Republican legislators will gerrymander and disenfranchise en masse. There's no need for an active militia as law enforcement is so far gone in the USA, they will be a branch of that government subjugation. If states or cities rebel, federal government will intervene to quash them. Resistance will be considered unpatriotic.

Half the country will watch what's left of the news, the other half will watch the crafted fiction.

So crush it now. There's no other opportunity.

Release the hounds?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1329549163403632640?s=19

So, we have to until tomorrow to see the results?

I mean we basically already know them, aside from those two big undercounts no other county had a more than 10 vote discrepancy.

It’s  probably a good thing that they are releasing and certifying on the same day. It kind of sucks, but what are you supposed to do?

[Person Man]

They’re going after MN now LMAOO

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1329568984400801793?s=21

"Statistical abnormalities" = "too many people didn't vote for our candidate".

I think we should have whined about Florida.

[Person Man]

They’re going after MN now LMAOO

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1329568984400801793?s=21

"Statistical abnormalities" = "too many people didn't vote for our candidate".

I think we should have whined about Florida.

It's not too late. I seriously think if they keep this up, we should just start throwing out baseless claims that Florida was stolen and that millions of votes were fraudulently cast or changed in Miami. Hell, Texas too while we're at it. And remember how Ohio looked like a Biden lead for a while on election night? Don't even get me started on North Carolina!

I can’t wait for 2028 or 2032 when our version of Trump just eviscerates the Sumter County and Cuban establishment. There will be so many people crying on both sides! It will be a beautiful thing when I tell them to fucc their feelings.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329924511546957824

 Trump was on TV talking about how he had 74 million votes which he doesn't even have yet. I'm telling you if he had the dominant victory Biden achieved he would never shut up. You'd lose count at how often he'd call himself the most popular president ever, more votes than anybody ever, nobody's ever seen numbers like these...

If he won by 6 million votes, the only state he would gain would be Nevada.

[Person Man]

I support individual freedoms, small government, and personal responsibility.

However, I don't support selfishness couched in "individual freedoms" e.g., like not wearing a mask even though it's a public health emergency. 

I am not really a libertarian though I just don't like either major party.  But right now the Democratic Party is far better and far less corrupt.

You see, that's part of the problem with the whole Libertarian Party and libertarianism — most of the backers are not real libertarians, they just don't like the two party system.  Like it or not, mask mandates and lockdowns go against the core values of the libertarian ideology. It has been interesting to see a lot of self described "libertarians" back themselves into a corner on this issue, though.

That’s like saying you can’t be a Democrat if you are against gun control or something.

[Person Man]

That map is quasi pathological

[Person Man]

Sounds like one of the Republicans has flipped to certify, we'll have to wait and see:

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1330937395080998914?s=20

This is basically a decision on whether to cancel the election.

[Person Man]

Biden breaks 80M

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331261330859438080

I hope Trump falls to 46%.

That’s not possible anymore with ca. 2 million votes left.

Only a 0.4% reduction is still possible for him.

Under 47% likely?

[Person Man]

So a question for y'all:

*Immediately* following GWB's over-performance with Hispanics (but particularly Latinos) in 2004, were GOP'ers confident that these gains would hold for future cycles?

(I was nine at the time, so a tad bit young for such demographical analysis hehe.)

Yeah. People were talking about how Democrats lost them over LGBT and abortion and needed to end church and state issues like that as a litmus tests or else Hispanics would become a swing vote.

[Person Man]

Prediction: this thread probably hits 300 pages and the site will crash multiple times.

This, a thousand times this.

Almost 800...

[Person Man]

Indiana?

Mississippi? Arkansas?

[Person Man]

2 things to note in the 2018 AP exits vs 2020. College white voters and high income voters voted like they did in 2018, Trump did better with lower income voters, non-college whites and non-college non whites vs the GOP in 2018. Below are the margins:

Non college Whites:
2018: R+20
2020: R+25

College White:
2018: -4R
2020: -6R

Non-college non-white:
2018: -57R
2020: -48R

College non-white:
2018: -49R
2020: -48R

Incomes:
2018:  <$50,000: -17R
2020: <$50,000: -8R

2018: $50-$99,000: -2R
2020: $50-$99,000: +2R

2018: >$100,000: -5R
2020: >$100,000: -4R

Basically, Trump improved by 9% among voters under $50,000 vs 2018, improved 4% among voters earning $50,000 - $99,000 and gained 1% among voters making over $100,000.

The conclusion is college whites making over $100,000 were likely the only group that became more democratic between 2018-2020.

Last week, I made the point that Democrats are becoming the party of the wealthy, and received much blowback for it. This seems to provide further evidence of that trend. Biden obviously still carried every group aside from non-college educated whites and middle-income voters, but Trump's gains among almost every group-except for college-educated whites-nevertheless should be concerning to the Democrats.

No disrespect but why would it be concerning. Also your implying most Democrats are wealthy why is why you might get blowback

I've explained elsewhere at some length my discomfort with the party realignments we are seeing. I'd rather for the Democratic Party to be the Party for working classes of all stripes then a Party that is not.

How do you change that when it appears that everyone at the moment is voting for someone else’s interests. Empathy is great but it doesn’t really work in democracy.