Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Person Man]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

 There are few real independent voters anymore. There are more Democrats than Republicans.  

Seems that you have a large portion of independents who say "oh, I'm a registered independent" but have voted for the same party for decades. 

I like to say that group is made up of two people: Those who claim to be "independent" because it makes them feel that they came up with their own ideas of how things should be and that one party agrees with them 90% of the time and one doesn't and those who are "independent" so as to move the Overton window in their direction by pretending that the side they end up voting for  is "more moderate" and the other side is unreasonable.

I'm almost certain there are those who like to claim they are "independent" because it makes them seem more nuanced.  And to all of my green avs here, this is not a shot at you.
 

There are those on here that do have genuinely "independent" views that are green or even yellow avs. There are those on here that don't. Both Republican Independents and Democrat Independents.

[Person Man]

Impeachment is gonna be over soon and Trump polls are gonna replicate the Rassy, Emerson polls showing his approvals in 45-47% range, not 41%

Where was he before impeachment?

[Person Man]

So this poll reinforces that impeachment likely didn't change a lot of minds on President Trump.  People that were going to vote for him in November are just more excited to do so.  Those who are excited at the prospect of kicking him out of the White House seem just as fired up.  And while more surveyed Indies said that impeachment had made them LESS LIKELY to vote for President Trump by a nine-percent margin, a non-insignificant number answered that it made them MORE LIKELY to do the same.   But even amongst this prized group of voters, the same status-quo concept appears to be present in the 47% that answered NEITHER LESS OR MORE LIKELY to the question. 

Granted, this is just a single poll.  But I suspect that the numbers will come as a general disappointment to Democrats that were hoping impeachment would flip Trump-leaning voters to their side.  And for the Republicans, it seems that any sort of massive backlash against the Democrats hasn't materialized either.  Having said that, we are still early in the hard campaign season.  These numbers may change if and when impeachment re-enters the conversation later in the year. 

But overall, the numbers indicate what we already knew: the country is deeply divided along scorched partisan lines right now. 

At this point two things probably happen, something really bad happens and Democrats get their ass together and max themselves out or nothing happens and Trump does a little worse in the electoral college and Republicans pick up a handful of seats in the house and maybe the Democrats pick up a seat in the senate but nothing really changes. 2022 would then be very interesting to watch. The third and least likely scenario is “Dems in disarray” where Trump sweeps all the battleground states, gets a near record Republican senate, and a narrow Republican house. This R landslide would require Trump to become valuable somehow.

[Person Man]

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

Wishful (and kind of really mean towards the poors) thinking.

Most experts think, it will be modest, but still descent growth.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/02/what-method-implies-80-probability-of-recession-by-nov-2020

Cool, man, you've found a paper that implied that there were 70% that recession would be in 6 month from nov 2019.

that the implied recession probability in the six months after November 2019 is 70%, and for the 12 months after is 86%.

Like I said, 95% of experts think, that will be modest, but still descent growth.
2-percent'ish growth to be more specific.

I know it hurts, but that is what most experts predict  

So after the tax cut, it’s the same as Obama’s. Maybe that’ll be enough. It won’t be enough to take back the house unless Americans are completely done with the Democratic Party.

[Person Man]

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

Wishful (and kind of really mean towards the poors) thinking.

Most experts think, it will be modest, but still descent growth.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/02/what-method-implies-80-probability-of-recession-by-nov-2020

Cool, man, you've found a paper that implied that there were 70% that recession would be in 6 month from nov 2019.

that the implied recession probability in the six months after November 2019 is 70%, and for the 12 months after is 86%.

Like I said, 95% of experts think, that will be modest, but still descent growth.
2-percent'ish growth to be more specific.

I know it hurts, but that is what most experts predict  

So after the tax cut, it’s the same as Obama’s. Maybe that’ll be enough. It won’t be enough to take back the house unless Americans are completely done with the Democratic Party.

And if there's enough opposition to the Democrats that the House flips back to the GOP, control of the House will be the least of the Democrats' troubles.  

I, for one, will become Independent. At that point, the D brand is pretty much done.

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1228050978039095306

More like a jiggle butt.

[Person Man]

I don't disagree with Nate Silver.  Trump's approval has clearly improved over the last couple months.  But at the same time, there is definitely a noticeable separation in that trend between live-caller and online polls, which has led to the partisan response bias theory promoted by Elliott Morris among others.  I suspect that they're both right to some degree: Trump's approval is improving, but the movement appears greater among live-caller polls due to response bias.

Has Trump actually improved?

[Person Man]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 1-3, 1500 adults including 1134 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 48 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)


RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 48 (+1), Trump 40 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 51 (+3), R 38 (-2)


Interesting movement in the GCB when everything else was fairly stable.

I think even if the race is tossup and not even Lean or likely R by September/October, Democrats can make the argument that they should be kept around in Congress as a check on Trump. It’s pretty effective. No president has ever been re-elected and won back full control of Congress on their coattails. Even if Trump loses the popular vote, I would consider that a landslide.

[Person Man]

If Trump is struggling in Northern New England, maybe Dems have a chance of wrapping up Trump’s back door early. It’s good that Arizona is confirmed to be a horse race.

[Person Man]

Stepping up onto my soapbox for a moment:

So it seems as though Trump's approval/disapproval ratings are stabilizing.  But in this current environment of highly-charged partisanship where pretty much everybody has a "team" that they want to win, I think it's sometimes easy to forget that there's still months and months of a long election season ahead.  Nobody (whether you love Trump or hate him) should be counting his or her chickens yet. 

Allegations of misconduct, campaign gaffes, health problems -- they're all still on the table and almost certain (in some form of another) for the incumbent or any of the candidates.  (And frankly, I can't wait for the meat of the campaigns, hehe). 

This is a good time to say that we have a baseline from which the relative campaign performances can be evaluated.

Trump at 42-52-6 and consistently behind about 6 in h2h national polling, a generic ballot that indicates a wash in Congress, a tied Senate ( AZ,CO,AL,NC and ME flipping) and Trump losing PA, MI, NC, FL but holding on in WI with AZ being very close.

It’s very unlikely it will turn out this way, but this is the base line.

[Person Man]

Interestingly enough, Trump's favorability is even worse (43-56) in the battleground states versus nationally (43-53) in new CNN poll

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/03/09/rel2a.-.2020.pdf

I'm not ready to consider anything outside of Colorado or Georgia to be battleground states.
One cannot win, except against splintered opposition, when one has an unfavorability rating of 56%. To be sure, favorability is not approval, but the two generally relate.

I do not know what the "battleground states" are as defined in this poll.  My definition would be any state that Trump won or lost by 10% or less in 2016.

[Person Man]

Biden approval is 48 to 50 percent and Trump is at 45 to 54 percent.  Ohio just proved that it's a Trump state, since it has moved its primary to June, DeWine is a Trump conservative. If I were Biden, I wouldn't spend time in IA or OH, which are fools gold for Dems, just like VA and WI are for Rs.

Spend all the time you need in MI, WI and NV

I wouldn't worry about Nevada, Virginia, or Colorado. He needs to focus on Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and North Carolina. If things are improving, I would focus on downballot races in Georgia and Texas. If his campaign in struggling in September, I wouldn't simply retreat back into the Blue firewall but tell people to split their tickets and not give Trump a blank check on power.

[Person Man]

Ironically in 538, perception's of Trump's performance has improved slightly from roughly -11 to -10. It could just be that he again takes the credit from those who did well in mess. It's just as likely to be noise at this point.

[Person Man]

This poll had him 43-54 last week. A 20 pt swing in one week in a volatile situation seems unlikely.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1240946508570206210

God there is nothing worse then when a flawed tracking poll sends lib twitter into a meltdown

YouGov? What's going on with that poll? Their numbers were awful when Trump was on a roll with impeachment and gave up on his trade war with China.

1) The poll really does suck
2) The polls haven't registered what's going on yet
3) Everyone who eventually will vote for Trump is approving of him
4) Trump really is doing a better job and we just refuse to see it
5) Trump is "growing on" people they way I "grew on" people in the past.

Now this is a fun story and how I see Trump potentially becoming popular-

 Trump could be like the annoying chubby 14 year old me who never got a proper day of exercise after the 5th grade.  I would always cry in team sports and when my parents split, my dad got released from his firm and my mom's salary was too low to keep me in karate classes. Regardless, I was really excited when I turned 14 because then I could use the gym at the community center on the beach. I didn't know what I was doing and would just flail around with the weights I thought I should be able to lift rather than the ones I could properly lift. On top of that, I was pretty messy because I sometimes don't pay attention or pay attention to the wrong things. My friend who would drive me there said it looked like I was "dry humping all of the equipment".  Everyone would complain that "What the hell? He shouldn't be in here. He's too young!" when I had waited for 2 years to be old enough to go into the place. One of the guys who was especially upset was a middle aged charter fisherman at the marina. He would tell me "Hey. You're 14. You should be out playing in traffic or something or riding your bike. At least until you're 16. Besides, you leave sweat towels everywhere when there's clearly a waste basket near the scale. I don't care that you just had a growth spurt and your voice finally cracked a couple of months ago. You shouldn't be in here". It was really bad but I doubled down and I kept lifting what I couldn't until I could. My wrists always felt like I had bad arthritis in the them but by the time I was almost 16, I was lifting more than most of the regulars were. Around that point, everyone started including me into their conversations and greeted me with genuine affection when I came in. The only problems were that only focusing on "going heavy" caused me to have a beer gut. I wouldn't even have noticed but my dad would say "your clothes don't fit anymore. Let's go to the new expensive mall by the airport. It's amazing how many pull ups you can do with all that jelly in your belly". When I tried to lose that weight when I was 17, my dad threatened to revoke all of my car and electronics privileges because he I was becoming anorexic. Once I had lost about half the weight I needed to lose (going from like 23-24% to like 18% body fat), he had the pediatrician tell me that I was becoming like a castaway and soon I would be burning muscle.  From there, I steadily gained weight in college until I used the summer after I graduated and couldn't find a job to lose all of it. No one could stop me then because I was then a grown man who could do what he wanted. I digress... the point is that maybe Trump is that annoying messy kid in the weight room they wish they could get rid of that becomes that person that most people at least pertend to respect.  The caveat being that I noticed when I returned that year between school that the only cool one left and that most of them were your typical Gen X white trash.

[Person Man]

Trump is definitely not gonna crater to 35 percent, there isnt gonna be a Biden slide. Biden is still sleepy Joe

Hoover got 39% in 1932 and Carter got 41% in 1980. Trump gets into that area only if the economy tanks.

It's tanking. The only way the electorate is in that polarized mode where the NPV winner is decided by 4 or 5 million votes or less is that somehow the economy in November is average. Maybe the macros have the Dow back up to the 22-24000 range and the UE between 6-8%. Maybe Trump even wins like Reagan did. His wealthy backers put everything on the line to create enough bullsh**t jobs to get that guy in Jacksonville, Mesa, or Madison to say "anybody but Trump...but Biden." If a bunch of people start showing up at work at my job in the summer and are always watching the news or playing video games instead with an IDE or CRM up, I will know what's going on.

[Person Man]

When Gold Standard Live pollsters showed Trump getting all-time-high the unskewers said that you should istead look at online trash pollsters because muh "non-response bias". Now when these trash pollsters starts to show better numbers for your favorite Boomer President, the unskewers confess "Tracking polls aren’t reliable" 


Me? I'll wait for Gold Standard. With that said, I expect people to love Boomer Populist Power. Trump is gonna print so many $$$, you all gonna be tired of printing!   

At least we will have something to wipe our asses with.

[Person Man]

Trump approvals are at 45% to 54% and Biden's is 48 to 50%. FL, OH, and AZ are statistically within the margin of error and Trump hasn't campaigned yet. Pundits are still saying Trump is in the worst position and his polls haven't even slipped under 40, where they thought they would be, when coronavirus began. We might not even have conventions this summer, this isn't a normal election.

He always is campaigning though

[Person Man]

It makes me profoundly sad and deeply pessimistic about the country's future that a majority of Americans approve of the President's response to COVID-19. We're on a trajectory for thousands of deaths, a trajectory that could and should have been prevented. A majority of people think it is OK that the President decried the virus as a hoax for months and admitted to keeping sick Americans stuck on a cruise ship so that the number of sick people stayed artificially low.

It just goes to show that as bad as he is, the real problem is with the electorate.

America is split between modernists and primitives on issues of culture and politics. It is as if some people are living in the Jacksonian era and others are living in the Obama era. Such ensures conflicts. Maybe we are not as split as the Spanish were in the 1930's with people thinking in the age of Velasquez and others in the age of Picasso.  The ultimate winner was of course the Franco synthesis of medieval social values and modern technologies of war, repression, and production.

It was a fine synthesis for tourists, but not for the people of Spain.

 

I guess this country could, as a fallback,  be a zoo.

[Person Man]

This is so depressing. Our country of civically unaware ignoramuses will truly be the death of everything our nation ever claimed to have stood for.

People aren't paying attention

[Person Man]

This is so depressing. Our country of civically unaware ignoramuses will truly be the death of everything our nation ever claimed to have stood for.

People aren't paying attention

You would think they would be in a time of national crisis. For those who are locked-down there isn't even much else to do but watch the media coverage...and have sex I suppose (are people doing both at the same time? Probably!).

It used to be what you would do be streaming.  Either that or the History Channel.

[Person Man]

COVID-19 will result in Trump's re-election, I guarantee it.

You've been guaranteeing it ever since it became clear that Bernie would lose the nomination.

Trump is seeing a rally-round-the-flag effect.  It's very common in terms of crisis, and it usually doesn't last long.

Joe Biden is a horrible candidate. Even if he doesn't actually have cognitive decline, lots of people think he does, and that matters more. Plus, he may not be progressive enough to energize young voters.

If this does happen, hopefully does for progressives what the 80s did for moderates. Although it could equally mean when the Democrats finally put someone up there worth voting for, instead of being a progressive, they could just be someone they put up there "just to win for once", or at least did for Reagan what Clinton did. That is, the next Democratic president concedes on the main issues that gave Trump a durable electoral majority and simply say "I'm a new Democrat. I get that my party had some bad ideas, but I have new ideas that are neither left nor right."

[Person Man]

I’m not so sure that this can just be chalked up to a rally effect. Does half this country even agree that there is a crisis to rally around? Does anyone really think people on the East and West coasts are rallying around a guy basically absolving himself of all responsibility and leaving them to their own devices?

Moreover, I thought that "rally around the flag" usually happens because nations unites, that is President is praised by both parties and, of course, by MS, no???
Now the opposite happens.

I have no idea how people like you think.

[Person Man]

Really weird how they keep on wanting Democrats downballot. Maybe the House is at least Likely D because the voters don't really trust either party right now.

[Person Man]

Trump approval at all time high, only 2.0 points behind disapproval.

Not really translating downballot

[Person Man]

MAR 27-30, 2020
A+
Selzer & Co.
1,009 A
777 LV
https://www.grinnell.edu/sites/default/files/docs/2020-03/GCNP%20April%202020%20Toplines%20and%20Methodology.pdf

All Adults:
48 (+8 since OCT 17-23)
45 (-5)

Economy
54 (+4)
36 (-3)

Corona:
50
43

Likely Voters:
48 (+5)
48 (-3)

H2H, Biden +4

Yet Congressional Republicans are getting obliterated. What's going on? Is this evidence that the demise of split ticket voting was premature and that though there are no right-of-center Democrats left in Congress, that there will be a large amount of "Trump Democrats" who keep the Senate Competitive (potentially D-leaning in 2022) and both Pelosi and Trump entrenched? Or it could just be that no one is paying attention to Trump or anyone for that matter because of obvious reasons and all the Trump-Pelosi and Romney-Clinton people just shrug and say "he's our president. he's trying" instead of saying "we're making money, but he's a degenerate".