Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Bidenworth2020]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 16-17, 1115 adults including 978 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

Interesting, I wonder if his taking the virus more seriously is boosting his approval a bit (though not much, clearly)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 16-17, 1115 adults including 978 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

Interesting, I wonder if his taking the virus more seriously is boosting his approval a bit (though not much, clearly)

I wouldn't read too much into it.  That's normal noise-level variation for this poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unlike what Solid and Politician thinks, the Coronavirus isnt gonna tank Trump approval ratings to mid 30s and we get a 60 seat majority in the Senate. The govt doesnt have the money for Bernie programs and have to use its resources instead to get us out from this recession

[Bidenworth2020]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 16-17, 1115 adults including 978 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

Interesting, I wonder if his taking the virus more seriously is boosting his approval a bit (though not much, clearly)

I wouldn't read too much into it.  That's normal noise-level variation for this poll.

I am not familiar with this particular tracking poll. Does it often have misleading static?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 16-17, 1115 adults including 978 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

Interesting, I wonder if his taking the virus more seriously is boosting his approval a bit (though not much, clearly)

I wouldn't read too much into it.  That's normal noise-level variation for this poll.

I am not familiar with this particular tracking poll. Does it often have misleading static?

It has variation that's quite normal for the sample sizes they typically use; the margin of error is +/- 3.3% for adults, 3.6% for RV.  This kind of variation is normal for this poll and IMO is a healthy sign.  When a pollster is consistently stable with very little variation, I get a little suspicious.  (For example, during the 2016 campaign, SurveyMonkey published a weekly head-to-head that was exactly the same for something like 10 weeks in a row, and within +/-1 for 16 or so weeks.  That kind of stability is extraordinarily unlikely.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Montana: PPP, March 12-13, 903 voters

Approve 50
Disapprove 46

The Senate race between Bullock and Daines is tied 47-47.

[pbrower2a]

Montana: PPP, March 12-13, 903 voters

Approve 50
Disapprove 46

The Senate race between Bullock and Daines is tied 47-47.

This is weak for the President, and it could be a portent of 'strange things happening' in the event of a Democratic landslide in November. I do not predict any dynamic. Montana implies more than 400 electoral votes for Biden in 2020. If this polling is true and not an outlier, then Montana will be closer to a D victory than at any time since the near-landslide of Barack Obama in 2008.

Much more significant is the Senate race which I must now put in the toss-up category. Montana is a tough state to poll accurately; with only three electoral votes it is highly unlikely to make the difference in the Electoral College. Trump probably wins Montqana barring an epic collapse of credibility nationwide, and if he does lose Montana, then the Democrats win a Senate seat. Daines did vote to not remove Donald Trump.

 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is definitely not gonna crater to 35 percent, there isnt gonna be a Biden slide. Biden is still sleepy Joe

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Trump is definitely not gonna crater to 35 percent, there isnt gonna be a Biden slide. Biden is still sleepy Joe

Sloth Biden*

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is electable, but the EC map is the same with Bernie or Biden 279, Biden should not campaign in FL with 12 days left, like Hilary and ignore MI, again. That strategy failed

[wbrocks67]

This poll had him 43-54 last week. A 20 pt swing in one week in a volatile situation seems unlikely.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1240946508570206210

[Hindsight was 2020]

This poll had him 43-54 last week. A 20 pt swing in one week in a volatile situation seems unlikely.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1240946508570206210

God there is nothing worse then when a flawed tracking poll sends lib twitter into a meltdown

[Person Man]

This poll had him 43-54 last week. A 20 pt swing in one week in a volatile situation seems unlikely.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1240946508570206210

God there is nothing worse then when a flawed tracking poll sends lib twitter into a meltdown

YouGov? What's going on with that poll? Their numbers were awful when Trump was on a roll with impeachment and gave up on his trade war with China.

1) The poll really does suck
2) The polls haven't registered what's going on yet
3) Everyone who eventually will vote for Trump is approving of him
4) Trump really is doing a better job and we just refuse to see it
5) Trump is "growing on" people they way I "grew on" people in the past.

Now this is a fun story and how I see Trump potentially becoming popular-

 Trump could be like the annoying chubby 14 year old me who never got a proper day of exercise after the 5th grade.  I would always cry in team sports and when my parents split, my dad got released from his firm and my mom's salary was too low to keep me in karate classes. Regardless, I was really excited when I turned 14 because then I could use the gym at the community center on the beach. I didn't know what I was doing and would just flail around with the weights I thought I should be able to lift rather than the ones I could properly lift. On top of that, I was pretty messy because I sometimes don't pay attention or pay attention to the wrong things. My friend who would drive me there said it looked like I was "dry humping all of the equipment".  Everyone would complain that "What the hell? He shouldn't be in here. He's too young!" when I had waited for 2 years to be old enough to go into the place. One of the guys who was especially upset was a middle aged charter fisherman at the marina. He would tell me "Hey. You're 14. You should be out playing in traffic or something or riding your bike. At least until you're 16. Besides, you leave sweat towels everywhere when there's clearly a waste basket near the scale. I don't care that you just had a growth spurt and your voice finally cracked a couple of months ago. You shouldn't be in here". It was really bad but I doubled down and I kept lifting what I couldn't until I could. My wrists always felt like I had bad arthritis in the them but by the time I was almost 16, I was lifting more than most of the regulars were. Around that point, everyone started including me into their conversations and greeted me with genuine affection when I came in. The only problems were that only focusing on "going heavy" caused me to have a beer gut. I wouldn't even have noticed but my dad would say "your clothes don't fit anymore. Let's go to the new expensive mall by the airport. It's amazing how many pull ups you can do with all that jelly in your belly". When I tried to lose that weight when I was 17, my dad threatened to revoke all of my car and electronics privileges because he I was becoming anorexic. Once I had lost about half the weight I needed to lose (going from like 23-24% to like 18% body fat), he had the pediatrician tell me that I was becoming like a castaway and soon I would be burning muscle.  From there, I steadily gained weight in college until I used the summer after I graduated and couldn't find a job to lose all of it. No one could stop me then because I was then a grown man who could do what he wanted. I digress... the point is that maybe Trump is that annoying messy kid in the weight room they wish they could get rid of that becomes that person that most people at least pertend to respect.  The caveat being that I noticed when I returned that year between school that the only cool one left and that most of them were your typical Gen X white trash.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I wonder if the reality of how badly this was managed at the start sets in when Americans start losing all sources of income and start getting evicted, starving, and people they know start dying after it was all brushed off as “just like the flu” for the greater part of two months.

Then again, Americans have pretty short memories.

[pbrower2a]

Trump is definitely not gonna crater to 35 percent, there isnt gonna be a Biden slide. Biden is still sleepy Joe

Hoover got 39% in 1932 and Carter got 41% in 1980. Trump gets into that area only if the economy tanks.

[Person Man]

Trump is definitely not gonna crater to 35 percent, there isnt gonna be a Biden slide. Biden is still sleepy Joe

Hoover got 39% in 1932 and Carter got 41% in 1980. Trump gets into that area only if the economy tanks.

It's tanking. The only way the electorate is in that polarized mode where the NPV winner is decided by 4 or 5 million votes or less is that somehow the economy in November is average. Maybe the macros have the Dow back up to the 22-24000 range and the UE between 6-8%. Maybe Trump even wins like Reagan did. His wealthy backers put everything on the line to create enough bullsh**t jobs to get that guy in Jacksonville, Mesa, or Madison to say "anybody but Trump...but Biden." If a bunch of people start showing up at work at my job in the summer and are always watching the news or playing video games instead with an IDE or CRM up, I will know what's going on.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't usually mention the daily trackers, but Rasmussen has shown little movement this week, and is down a bit from the past few weeks.

3/16: 47/52
3/17: 46/53
3/18: 46/53
3/19: 47/52
3/20: 46/52

Last week had Trump approvals of 48, 48, 47, 48, 49.  In late February it was in the range of 49-52.

[soundchaser]

For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction...

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1241021788831862791

[Sir Mohamed]

For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction...

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1241021788831862791

So much for rally-around-the flag effect.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Those two polls caused a whipsaw in the 538 average - and now it's back to right where it was before.  It really was an equal and opposite reaction!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Trumps average approval on the coronavirus situation now averages around 55%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What a complete failure by the Democratic Party to expose Trump’s mistakes to the American people. Trump surging and stronger than ever now.

Its obvious now, other Dems are getting nervous like Blue Swan who attacks other Dems for stating the truth that it's not gonna be a 300 or 413 landslide anymore

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1241052330511958020

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1241052330511958020

This. 

Positive or negative, we won't have an idea of how this event will impact Trump's ratings for a while. 

[Bidenworth2020]

Has this been uploaded? I found it on the 538 site. I compared it to the last YouGov poll, which admittedly is a different poll and potentially has a different methodology.

YouGov (March 17-19)

Approve- 47% (+3)
Dissaprove- 48% (-4)