Dems/leaners: Should Biden drop out?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Yes.

I've been posting about this a lot for the last 2-3 months, and at this point I do need to acknowledge it's getting to be too late in the process to do this smoothly.  I still think there's time, but there really needs to be some urgency about this.

But one important thing is that Biden shouldn't "drop out", he should retire.

Pressuring Biden to drop out (because let's be honest, even if he said that he was making his own decision, this is exactly how it would look) would allow Republicans to very successfully paint Democrats as opportunistic hypocrites who were admitting that they had failed the American people over the past four years. If Biden's agenda remains unpopular in 2024, that's going to hurt the Democrats no matter who is at the top of the ticket.

Biden's agenda isn't unpopular!
Biden is unpopular because people believe he's too old to effectively manage the country.
A younger Democrat with the exact same agenda would be a much more effective candidate.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

But that was the thing. Biden was not the first choice of the democratic establishment. Obama especially praised Elizabeth Warren. Others wanted Buttegieg. Kamala Harris. But those others guys just flopped, leaving Biden as the last man standing.

I was never a Buttegieg supporter, but it's absurd to say his campaign "flopped".  It was spectacularly successfully in transforming him from an obscure mayor with 1% national name recognition to someone on the very shortest of shortlists of potential successors to lead the party.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What also should be considered that Biden's most likely replacement would be Kamala, and I have way less confidence that she can win an election.

If you actually believe this, I think you could make a lot of money on PredictIt. Harris is only at 7c to win the nomination there, while Newsom is at 18c.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Plenty of people want him to drop put, no one seems to want to advocate for a replacement. Harris and Newsom are both rather weak. Those that really want him gone if they are sincere need to come up with the alternative and fast.

A "replacement" should be chosen through the normal primary process, just like every election cycle without the incumbent running. I could easily list 6-8 stronger candidates off the top of my head (and have in other threads), but the voters should decide.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

These questions are pointless anyway because the real world doesn't operate on Atlas thinking.

Isn't almost every question on this forum pointless under that line of thinking?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The voters are deciding anyway. An inoffensive  generic D Congressman is running against Biden, and we'll actually get to know soon if Democratic voters really want to dump Biden or not.

But this is the wrong way to think about this.
Democratic voters don't want Biden to be defeated. That would be a repudiation of his administration and accomplishments.  They want him to declare victory and retire on top.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The voters are deciding anyway. An inoffensive  generic D Congressman is running against Biden, and we'll actually get to know soon if Democratic voters really want to dump Biden or not.

But this is the wrong way to think about this.
Democratic voters don't want Biden to be defeated. That would be a repudiation of his administration and accomplishments.  They want him to declare victory and retire on top.

That's just supposition and assertion. There's no data supporting that idea that Democrats are having that particular thought process.

Personally I think it makes more sense to just dismiss the polls saying that 75% or whatever of Democrats don't want Biden to be the nominee than try to contrive a reason why they might really think that but still ultimately vote for him in colossal landslides anyway.

Or maybe I'm totally wrong, the polls are right, and Phillips will win or at least give Biden a scare. I kinda doubt it though.

You can’t “contrive” a reason why voters might want Biden to retire but also don’t want to instead vote for one of a bunch of weird randos?

Most Democrats like Biden.  Most of them haven’t heard of Dean Phillips, but most that have don’t like the negative message that Phillips is running against him. 

They also don’t want Biden to run again. If he didn’t run, the Dems would get several options far better than Dean Phillips.  It doesn’t seem that hard to understand.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Plenty of people want him to drop put, no one seems to want to advocate for a replacement. Harris and Newsom are both rather weak. Those that really want him gone if they are sincere need to come up with the alternative and fast.

A "replacement" should be chosen through the normal primary process, just like every election cycle without the incumbent running. I could easily list 6-8 stronger candidates off the top of my head (and have in other threads), but the voters should decide.

The voters will decide anyway. But if you have an active opinion that Biden should drop out and think it's important, then you should come up with an alternative. It is much harder to oppose something with nothing. If you want him out you need pressure, and there's not going to be sufficient pressure without a clear alternative.

Any of the following (and I’m sure several more if I thought a little harder):
- Wes Moore
- Steve Beshear
- Tammy Duckworth
- Raphael Warnock
- Mark Kelly
- Wes Moore
- Gretchen Whitmer
- Jared Polis
- Josh Shapiro

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Any of the following (and I’m sure several more as well, if I just thought a little harder):
- Wes Moore
- Steve Beshear
- Wes Moore

Lol. Also, Biden's a couple of years older than even the elderly Beshear ...

Yeah, that was a brain fart on my part, though I’m curious why you quoted Moore twice.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Plenty of people want him to drop put, no one seems to want to advocate for a replacement. Harris and Newsom are both rather weak. Those that really want him gone if they are sincere need to come up with the alternative and fast.

A "replacement" should be chosen through the normal primary process, just like every election cycle without the incumbent running. I could easily list 6-8 stronger candidates off the top of my head (and have in other threads), but the voters should decide.

The voters will decide anyway. But if you have an active opinion that Biden should drop out and think it's important, then you should come up with an alternative. It is much harder to oppose something with nothing. If you want him out you need pressure, and there's not going to be sufficient pressure without a clear alternative.

Any of the following (and I’m sure several more if I thought a little harder):
- Wes Moore
- Steve Beshear
- Tammy Duckworth
- Raphael Warnock
- Mark Kelly
- Wes Moore
- Gretchen Whitmer
- Jared Polis
- Josh Shapiro

Why any of these people would risk their future careers as a sacrificial lamb candidate is beyond me, and Democrats poisoning the well when these people are still needed in their current role or to be used elsewhere is suicidal.

Biden is the candidate chosen to deal with the Trump question in 2020, he's the least risk option at this point unless you want to appear even weaker downballot. If you want, you can find some sacrificial lamb to be brought in during a brokered convention–Laura Kelly seems doable as an inoffensive candidate–but be prepared to deal with the consequences of it turning into a media circus because it will be a general s•••show.

I’m absolutely not saying any of these people should run -against- Biden.  I’m saying they are stronger alternatives if Biden retires.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Plenty of people want him to drop put, no one seems to want to advocate for a replacement. Harris and Newsom are both rather weak. Those that really want him gone if they are sincere need to come up with the alternative and fast.

A "replacement" should be chosen through the normal primary process, just like every election cycle without the incumbent running. I could easily list 6-8 stronger candidates off the top of my head (and have in other threads), but the voters should decide.

The voters will decide anyway. But if you have an active opinion that Biden should drop out and think it's important, then you should come up with an alternative. It is much harder to oppose something with nothing. If you want him out you need pressure, and there's not going to be sufficient pressure without a clear alternative.

Any of the following (and I’m sure several more if I thought a little harder):
- Wes Moore
- Steve Beshear
- Tammy Duckworth
- Raphael Warnock
- Mark Kelly
- Wes Moore
- Gretchen Whitmer
- Jared Polis
- Josh Shapiro

Why any of these people would risk their future careers as a sacrificial lamb candidate is beyond me, and Democrats poisoning the well when these people are still needed in their current role or to be used elsewhere is suicidal.

Biden is the candidate chosen to deal with the Trump question in 2020, he's the least risk option at this point unless you want to appear even weaker downballot. If you want, you can find some sacrificial lamb to be brought in during a brokered convention–Laura Kelly seems doable as an inoffensive candidate–but be prepared to deal with the consequences of it turning into a media circus because it will be a general s•••show.

I’m absolutely not saying any of these people should run -against- Biden.  I’m saying they are stronger alternatives if Biden retires.

If 75% or whatever of Democratic voters actually want a different candidate than Biden, these candidates shouldn't be afraid of running against him. The fact that nobody but Dean Phillips is willing to do so tells me that none of those guys really believe that Biden's situation is so dire.

No one said democratic voters were in touch with reality. The reality is we are doomed if we don't run someone else. Period. You can put your fingers in your ears and cry about ageism and how unfair it is but reality is reality. Biden is unpopular, he's damaged beyond belief and we need to pass the torch to anybody else. Whitmer, Beshear, and again, even Newsom or Harris would be better at this point!

I've posted in other threads about why it is not possible for another Dem to run against Biden.
Biden has been a very good president, and most Democrats believe this.  The only reason he shouldn't be the nominee is that he is too old.

But you just can't run a campaign on this message.  You simply can't run an ad saying "My opponent has been a great president, and I agree with him on everything.  But he's probably going to die soon, so vote for me!"

A lot of Democratic voters agree with the sentiment in the back of their minds.  But you can't say it in a campaign.  It's just too morbid and would immediate turn off voters for speaking the unspeakable out loud.  It's something that Biden needs to come to terms with himself, and it's really disheartening given his long career of terrific public service that he apparently isn't willing to do it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't understand how people keep misinterpreting what I'm saying.
My thesis is that the majority of Democrats (a) like Biden and don't want anyone running a negative campaign against him; and also (b) think he's too old to run again and want him to retire.

Both halves of this are both completely sensible and also consistent with every poll we've been seeing.

And yet somehow a lot of people think this combination of beliefs is impossible despite the fact this is exactly what Dems have been telling pollsters for months. And so we just have to ignore all the data because it can't be reconciled with your a priori beliefs?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't understand how people keep misinterpreting what I'm saying.
My thesis is that the majority of Democrats (a) like Biden and don't want anyone running a negative campaign against him; and also (b) think he's too old to run again and want him to retire.

Both halves of this are both completely sensible and also consistent with every poll we've been seeing.

And yet somehow a lot of people think this combination of beliefs is impossible despite the fact this is exactly what Dems have been telling pollsters for months. And so we just have to ignore all the data because it can't be reconciled with your a priori beliefs?

We understand your point, we just don't agree with it. If the "75% of Democrats don't want Biden to be the nominee" polls are true, then Newsom would beat Biden head to head in a primary, and even a generic unknown like Phillips would have a good shot.

I think you're bending over backward to come up with a way for those polls to be true even when we all know that Biden is going to win the nomination in a landslide anyway and Newsom won't even try. Is there really reliable polling data that goes deeply into the thoughts and motivations of those 75% who want Biden replaced and explains why they're still voting for him anyway? Or are you just projecting your own personal opinions onto tens of millions of Americans?

You're the one bending over backwards to just ignore polls that don't confirm your prior beliefs.
All of the data we have is on my side here.  Is it really so hard to understand that not everyone thinks about politics in the exact same way that you do?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't understand how people keep misinterpreting what I'm saying.
My thesis is that the majority of Democrats (a) like Biden and don't want anyone running a negative campaign against him; and also (b) think he's too old to run again and want him to retire.

Both halves of this are both completely sensible and also consistent with every poll we've been seeing.

And yet somehow a lot of people think this combination of beliefs is impossible despite the fact this is exactly what Dems have been telling pollsters for months. And so we just have to ignore all the data because it can't be reconciled with your a priori beliefs?

We understand your point, we just don't agree with it. If the "75% of Democrats don't want Biden to be the nominee" polls are true, then Newsom would beat Biden head to head in a primary, and even a generic unknown like Phillips would have a good shot.

I think you're bending over backward to come up with a way for those polls to be true even when we all know that Biden is going to win the nomination in a landslide anyway and Newsom won't even try. Is there really reliable polling data that goes deeply into the thoughts and motivations of those 75% who want Biden replaced and explains why they're still voting for him anyway? Or are you just projecting your own personal opinions onto tens of millions of Americans?

You're the one bending over backwards to just ignore polls that don't confirm your prior beliefs.
All of the data we have is on my side here.  Is it really so hard to understand that not everyone thinks about politics in the exact same way that you do?

"All the data" ??  What data? There's a poll that deep dives into the supposed 75% of Democrats that want Biden replaced and details how they actually do like him and will vote for him anyway? I can accept whatever poll as a data point, but I'm not going to spin a whole narrative to tie some data point together.

Ultimately the only data that really matters is how the election results come in, and I've been fully transparent that I could be proven wrong on those. But when it likely turns out that Biden beats Phillips like 90-5 in the contested primaries, that's damningly strong evidence against the 75% polls.

You can't understand that a lot of people want Biden to retire, but also don't want to see some rando Dem congressman attacking him every day?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Isn’t this the same logic as "Trump will win in a landslide because of his rallies and crowds"?

No, it's the same argument as "If Trump beats Biden in a landslide next November, a hypothetical poll saying that 75% of voters didn't want Trump to win was probably wrong.

Also, Biden's problems go way beyond Democratic enthusiasm — he still wins 85%+ of Democrats even in most polls which show him trailing badly in swing states such as PA and MI.

That may be true, but it's not really relevant to the discussion at hand, which is only whether the polls suggesting that 75% or more of Democrats want someone other than Biden to be the nominee are correct or not. I suspect that they are not, because if they were Phillips would be getting more traction and Newsom would have probably jumped in, but there's still time for me to be proven wrong. Whether these polls are wrong intentionally, because of bad methodology, or because voters are telling pollsters things they don't sincerely believe is another question too which I don't know the answer.

Can you imagine a scenario where a company would prefer that a well-liked long-time employee would retire, but don't feel they have grounds to fire them?  A lot of Dems feel the same way about Biden.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I’m curious as to why you quoted Moore twice.

And  I'm curious  as to  why  you listed  him  twice!

Ha! Didn't notice that either....but we've never had a President from Maryland, so it is high time we finally got one!