I think Republicans are favored (but far from safe) here, but the margin will be embarrassing, especially if Tuberville gets the nom.
I'm curious as to what you think it would take for Jones to win here, & what you would say his chances are as of right now?
A disastrous Republican candidate/campaign, an ugly Republican primary, further erosion of GOP support in the suburbs/urban areas, Republican overconfidence/incompetence, and a Democratic wave. I think he’s the underdog, but I don’t buy that the race is Safe R, and his chances are very clearly higher than <0.1% (this percentage was of course always ridiculous, but not surprising coming from the posters who thought KY-GOV 2019 and AL-SEN 2017 were Safe R).
I know it wasn't your intended effect, but this post actually affirmed to me that this race is Safe R. Jones has to luck into some pretty extraordinary circumstances to have a chance (not unlike 2017) and even then it wouldn't guarantee him a win. The things you listed are pretty big ifs and I question whether some of those factors will have a big impact on the race (specifically the "ugly primary" - there have been a bunch of contentious primaries on both sides and more often than not they rarely negatively impact the final outcome enough for the winning candidate to underperform the lean of a given state/district). Granted, I think Jones has the possibility to overperform the Democratic presidential nominee based on his own strengths as a candidate, but finding a path to victory will be very hard and will require more than simply running a strong campaign on his part.
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