AL-SEN: It’s Tuberville

[SnowLabrador]

Is it possible Sessions splits the "typical conservative" vote with Byrne and Merrill, thus allowing for a Moore vs. Tuberville runoff?

Nah. I think it's more likely that Sessions just doesn't matter that much. Doesn't change my overall prediction that Tuberville will be nominated.

Sessions is damaged goods after Trump fired him last year.

[MT Treasurer]

I think Republicans are favored (but far from safe) here, but the margin will be embarrassing, especially if Tuberville gets the nom.

[brucejoel99]

I think Republicans are favored (but far from safe) here, but the margin will be embarrassing, especially if Tuberville gets the nom.

I'm curious as to what you think it would take for Jones to win here, & what you would say his chances are as of right now?

[MT Treasurer]

I think Republicans are favored (but far from safe) here, but the margin will be embarrassing, especially if Tuberville gets the nom.

I'm curious as to what you think it would take for Jones to win here, & what you would say his chances are as of right now?

A disastrous Republican candidate/campaign, an ugly Republican primary, further erosion of GOP support in the suburbs/urban areas, Republican overconfidence/incompetence, and a Democratic wave. I think he’s the underdog, but I don’t buy that the race is Safe R, and his chances are very clearly higher than <0.1% (this percentage was of course always ridiculous, but not surprising coming from the posters who thought KY-GOV 2019 and AL-SEN 2017 were Safe R).

[KaiserDave]

I think Republicans are favored (but far from safe) here, but the margin will be embarrassing, especially if Tuberville gets the nom.

I'm curious as to what you think it would take for Jones to win here, & what you would say his chances are as of right now?

A disastrous Republican candidate/campaign, an ugly Republican primary, further erosion of GOP support in the suburbs/urban areas, Republican overconfidence/incompetence, and a Democratic wave. I think he’s the underdog, but I don’t buy that the race is Safe R, and his chances are very clearly higher than <0.1% (this percentage was of course always ridiculous, but not surprising coming from the posters who thought KY-GOV 2019 and AL-SEN 2017 were Safe R).

So

1. Roy Moore wins the nom after a brutal primary
2. Roy Moore moores up the election
3. National GOP bungles response to said Mooring
4. No Active Trump Support for Moore
5. Dems winning national pop vote +6
6. Doug runs good campaign?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Crazy idea: should Doug Jones be considered for vp for anyone not named Biden? I mean he’s doa anyway but he would bring some good optics to the culture war Trump will make it all? Plus he has proven to be good a bringing out the black vote with his history and you could see him playing well in the suburbs

[Sir Mohamed]

Crazy idea: should Doug Jones be considered for vp for anyone not named Biden? I mean he’s doa anyway but he would bring some good optics to the culture war Trump will make it all? Plus he has proven to be good a bringing out the black vote with his history and you could see him playing well in the suburbs

Harris/Jones was a ticket I've always liked. However, Doug Jones would be better as AG under any Dem prez.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Sessions is running apparently, so this seat is safe R now. If it's likely R then it would b 8-9 points.

[😥]

5%

[Brittain33]

10% based on the fact he’s already won once and hasn’t done anything wrong to completely ruin his chances (like a scandal; I’m not counting random party allegiance here.) The Republican nominee is a complete wildcard. So very unlikely, but not asteroid-striking-Earth unlikely.

By fall 2020 we’ll know if it’s gone down to 1%.

I have a feeling that living through the Scott Brown win here in Massachusetts makes me less likely to go with the “no chance he wins”/flying pig assessment so common on this thread.

[Brittain33]

Sessions is running apparently, so this seat is safe R now. If it's likely R then it would b 8-9 points.

There seems to be some doubt that Sessions is still popular enough to win the primary.

[Yellowhammer]

I think Republicans are favored (but far from safe) here, but the margin will be embarrassing, especially if Tuberville gets the nom.

I'm curious as to what you think it would take for Jones to win here, & what you would say his chances are as of right now?

A disastrous Republican candidate/campaign, an ugly Republican primary, further erosion of GOP support in the suburbs/urban areas, Republican overconfidence/incompetence, and a Democratic wave. I think he’s the underdog, but I don’t buy that the race is Safe R, and his chances are very clearly higher than <0.1% (this percentage was of course always ridiculous, but not surprising coming from the posters who thought KY-GOV 2019 and AL-SEN 2017 were Safe R).

No.

[Tekken_Guy]

Two of the candidates in the race are:

-An establishment Republican who held this seat for 20 years and dared to show some independence from Trump.
-A guy who fudged up what should have been an easy GOP won.

Do either of these people have appeal with the GOP base? I don’t think so.

A beloved football coach who has no anti-Trump record or pedophilia history? He has great appeal and is the guy I want to see win.

To me, Sessions is old news and I don’t want to see him anywhere near the senate again. I’d honestly rather have Roy Moore as a Senator than Sessions back.

[Gracile]

I think Republicans are favored (but far from safe) here, but the margin will be embarrassing, especially if Tuberville gets the nom.

I'm curious as to what you think it would take for Jones to win here, & what you would say his chances are as of right now?

A disastrous Republican candidate/campaign, an ugly Republican primary, further erosion of GOP support in the suburbs/urban areas, Republican overconfidence/incompetence, and a Democratic wave. I think he’s the underdog, but I don’t buy that the race is Safe R, and his chances are very clearly higher than <0.1% (this percentage was of course always ridiculous, but not surprising coming from the posters who thought KY-GOV 2019 and AL-SEN 2017 were Safe R).

I know it wasn't your intended effect, but this post actually affirmed to me that this race is Safe R. Jones has to luck into some pretty extraordinary circumstances to have a chance (not unlike 2017) and even then it wouldn't guarantee him a win. The things you listed are pretty big ifs and I question whether some of those factors will have a big impact on the race (specifically the "ugly primary" - there have been a bunch of contentious primaries on both sides and more often than not they rarely negatively impact the final outcome enough for the winning candidate to underperform the lean of a given state/district). Granted, I think Jones has the possibility to overperform the Democratic presidential nominee based on his own strengths as a candidate, but finding a path to victory will be very hard and will require more than simply running a strong campaign on his part.

[Tekken_Guy]

Jeff Sessions honestly has as much of a chance of winning the primary as Bob Corker would if he jumped into TN-SEN.

[coolface1572]

It is safe to say no individual republican will win this primary outright.

Which two candidates are likely to make it into the runoff?

My guess is Jeff Sessions and Roy Moore. This is because the anti-Moore vote will be split between Tommy Tuberville, Bradley Byrne, John Merrill, and Arnold Mooney, and Jeff Sessions has a solid amount of name recognition.

Then, Sessions would win the runoff.

And then he defeats Doug Jones.

[Dereich]

Don't forget that as a long time Auburn football coach Tuberville has name recognition as high as anyone in the state with decent favorability numbers to boot. I don't see why his vote will split while Moore (who is barely in 3rd in recent polls) will keep his numbers intact.

I'd bet that Tuberville and Sessions make the runoff with numbers around 25% while Moore flounders in 4th at 10%. Without seeing any polling, I'd bet that Sessions wins the runoff as Auburn coming in 2nd seems only natural.

[Tekken_Guy]

Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville. Tuberville will win. Sessions will have a very limited base in the primary, as people are still angry at him for his recusal, and he’ll struggle to expand it unless he was against Moore, but Moore is damaged goods and doesn’t have enough support to make the runoff. Alabama likes their anti-establishment figures and Sessions is very much part of the establishment.

[Tekken_Guy]

Don't forget that as a long time Auburn football coach Tuberville has name recognition as high as anyone in the state with decent favorability numbers to boot. I don't see why his vote will split while Moore (who is barely in 3rd in recent polls) will keep his numbers intact.

I'd bet that Tuberville and Sessions make the runoff with numbers around 25% while Moore flounders in 4th at 10%. Without seeing any polling, I'd bet that Sessions wins the runoff as Auburn coming in 2nd seems only natural.

No, Tuberville will win that runoff. I don’t think people’s hatred of a football team willl overpower their hatred of a politician.

[coolface1572]

With Jeff Sessions now running, how would he do these runoff matchups?

Sessions vs Roy Moore

Sessions vs Tommy Tuberville

Sessions vs Bradley Byrne

Sessions vs John Merrill

Sessions vs Arnold Mooney

[Tekken_Guy]

He beats Moore, Merrill, and Mooney; but he loses to Tuberville and Byrne.

[Donerail]

Update on this: still very dumb

https://twitter.com/JuntoGunto/status/1195521706510737408

[JMT]

Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill announced that he is dropping out of the Senate race:

https://www.al.com/news/2019/12/john-merrill-drops-out-of-us-senate-race.html

[voice_of_resistance]

probably clears the way for Sessions to win the nom. As idiotic as AL Republicans are sometimes, I don't think they're idiotic enough to elect the one guy who can't win a general election again, knowing that he is a cartoonishly bad caricature of a Republican.

[President Johnson]

probably clears the way for Sessions to win the nom. As idiotic as AL Republicans are sometimes, I don't think they're idiotic enough to elect the one guy who can't win a general election again, knowing that he is a cartoonishly bad caricature of a Republican.

Doubtful, I think the God Emperor will go after him and support whoever is the rival in a runoff (which Sessions will most likely get into). I haven't read that recently, but on MSNBC it was said Trump would attack Sessions, as he and his core base fault Sessions for "allowing Mueller to happen". It's kind of amazing how this guy is throwing his own self-respect out the window for a Manhattan real estate conman.