Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[lfromnj]

But human waves win wars, don't you know?

If Russia is using human waves then why are the casualties at Bakhhmut of approximate parity ?

Because we don’t know if that’s true or not. Ukraine keeps their causality rates on the wraps pretty effectively

Sure , but interview sources from Ukranian commanders have stated their casualties at times are relatively close with the Russians. The only real examples of human wave tactics  post WW1 would be the Soviet defense in 1941 trying to delay the Germans and the Chinese in the Korean War. Do you have any sources of these massive human wave casualties ? Yes it is true the Russian military is embarrassing relative to expectations but its still important to note that this a near peer conflict .

[lfromnj]

If the rumors about the jets are true it seems that the opposition from the Pentagon over the Abrams being given was genuine rather than being cheap.

[lfromnj]

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/02/01/Israeli-PM-Netanyahu-says-considering-military-aid-to-Ukraine-mediation-

"Israeli PM Netanyahu says considering military aid to Ukraine, mediation"

Looks like Netanyahu might be open to sending Iron Dome to Ukraine.

Broke: American russia proxy war.
Woke: Iran Israel Proxy war

[lfromnj]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neue_Z%C3%BCrcher_Zeitung

https://www.nzz.ch/international/kampfpanzer-fuer-die-ukraine-wurde-olaf-scholz-ueberrumpelt-ld.1724136

One of the clues is a confidential conversation between the NZZ and two influential foreign politicians, one from the governing coalition, the other from the opposition. Both insist on anonymity because what they say independently is explosive. In mid-January, US President Joe Biden instructed CIA chief William Burns to sound out the willingness in Kiev and Moscow to negotiate.

The offer to Kiev was: peace for land, the offer to Moscow: land for peace. The "land" is said to have been about 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. This is about the size of Donbass. Both sides, the two politicians report, had refused. The Ukrainians, because they are not prepared to let their territory be divided, the Russians, because they expect to win the war in the long run anyway.

Seems that Biden was willing to offer Russia 20% of Ukrainian land for peace according to 2 German politicians. The newspaper itself is pretty trustworthy.

[lfromnj]

https://t.me/strelkovii/3925

In general, this was the end of the "offensive of the Russian army on the entire Donetsk front" widely announced over the network by "cheers-military corps". Complemented by the rebellion (refusal to take the position) of the battalion of Tuvinian nomads and not only (in principle, I do not report anything about this kind of events until they are "leaked" by someone into the network and become publicly available).

Girkin from the above politico article claims that the Tuvans (Siberian minority on the Chinese border) refused to fight or take a position which helped cause the turkey shoot in Vuhledar.

[lfromnj]

Tannu Tuva was an independent state until the 1940s and some of that mentality likely remains.

Funnily enough, though...

IIRC the theory is Shoigu gets the head role specifically because if he's not Russian its unlikely he could ever gather the support to lead a coup to become the leader of Russia.

[lfromnj]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

The Battle of Stalingrad lasted 5 months, the Battle of Verdun lasted 10 months. The Battle of Bakhmut has gone on for 6 months.

With all the wiped out Russian equipment and manpower destroyed in Bakhmut. Ukraine is going to launch a counteroffensive in the spring to liberate Melitopol and the land bridge to Crimea.

Quoting for posterity.

edit: I think its still possible for this to happen but a lot of predictions or statements from a lot of atlas users are far too optimistic. Just want to see how this play out.

[lfromnj]

SirWoodbury YaBB God ★★★ Posts: 4,754

Re: Great War Megathread « on: October 16th, 1918, 11:33:14 pm » Instead of being a condescending weirdo, you'd realize what the intent of the post was. Amiens wasn't the result of head-on assault by the Allies or an offensive, it was a withdrawal due to strains of manpower/logistics due to blockade, and mobilization transfer of divisions from the east was not yet completed. Manpower shortages is non-existent for the Germans now, they have guys to man fortifications and trenches, no need to support an Eastern Front, etc. Which is why it's going to be next to impossible for the allies to advance as there is no vulnerable spots left to attack. But the point is after Brest-Litovsk the Allies has literally made no gains or advances with the exception of the Amiens withdrawal. From here on out it's going to be that way. So yeah, Germany is winning. As long as they get more land than they started with (their frontlines are literally closer to Paris than they are to Germany), they're pretty much the winner.

I await the Russian surrender in 3 weeks. You could atleast change the date to during the Spring Offensive but in October 1918 it was clear Germany was on its last legs. The Spring Offensive by the Germans could be an apt comparison that mocks the idea of land gains equalling victory.

[lfromnj]

Just putting the Ukrainian perspective on Bakhmut, which is in addition to its symbolic value:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1626548035663560705

If they just ceded Bakhmut, they would still have to fight somewhere else, and right now Bakhmut is more fortified and defensible than other nearby locations. It also has a small river running through it which is an ideal place to hold off an enemy.

The original Russian goal for this area was to proceed through Bakhmut and up to Slovyansk, and then complete a pincer towards Izyum, encircling the Northern Donbas region. When they lost Izyum and Lyman, the Bakhmut offensive became operationally pointless, but in a renewed Russian offensive in Kharkiv/Luhansk would make it relevant again if they achieved gains there (such as retaking Lyman).

Anyway, the point here, really, is that if Ukraine retreats from Bakhmut, they are eventually going to be fighting in and around Chasiv Yar, then Kramatorsk, and then Slovyansk. They can't simply retreat every time Russia decides to throw wave after wave of forces at Ukraine's defensive lines. This is particularly true when Ukraine doesn't have a significant advantage which they could use to retake this land later. This war hasn't been marked by blitzkrieg-like maneuver warfare. It's been bloody attrition warfare with an occasional collapse in local forces (Kharkiv) or strategic retreat to preserve resources (Kherson). Ceding too much territory via tactical retreats might actually be bloodier for Ukraine than trying to hold it at great cost, at least in the long-term, since they are the ones trying to get their land back.

Each commander, Red Army soldier and political commissar should understand that our means are not limitless. The territory of the Soviet state is not a desert, but people – workers, peasants, intelligentsia, our fathers, mothers, wives, brothers, children. The territory of the USSR which the enemy has captured and aims to capture is bread and other products for the army, metal and fuel for industry, factories, plants supplying the army with arms and ammunition, railways. After the loss of Ukraine, Belarus, Baltic republics, Donetzk, and other areas we have much less territory, much fewer people, bread, metal, plants and factories. We have lost more than 70 million people, more than 800 million pounds of bread annually and more than 10 million tons of metal annually. Now we do not have predominance over the Germans in human reserves, in reserves of bread. To retreat further – means to waste ourselves and to waste at the same time our Motherland.

Therefore it is necessary to eliminate talk that we have the capability endlessly to retreat, that we have a lot of territory, that our country is great and rich, that there is a large population, and that bread always will be abundant. Such talk is false and parasitic, it weakens us and benefits the enemy, if we do not stop retreating we will be without bread, without fuel, without metal, without raw material, without factories and plants, without railways.

This leads to the conclusion, it is time to finish retreating. Not one step back! Such should now be our main slogan.

Stalin's Order 227 or No step back.

This isn't even mocking Ukraine. Obviously some of this doesn't apply such as the factories as Ukraine doesn't have to worry too much about wartime production as the West can take care of most of that.
I do agree there probably isn't enough room to keep retreating but recent positional losses around the Bakhmut area make it a real question. Most current maps show Bakhmut enveloped on 3 sides by the Russians. This effectively acts as a force multiplier for Russian troops in the area. I don't know enough myself but at least there is the argument to defend somewhere else if Ukraine can't get take back some ground in the region.

[lfromnj]

Everyone knew this last year. WTF were they doing all this time? I can't even count how many times I've seen an EU/American official talk about shortages and long production times and how this and that needs to be done, and then those governments proceed to do absolutely nothing. Either these people just don't care as much as they say or the amount of bureaucracy in the west is so gargantuan and so calcified that we are just hopeless.

I think this has to do with aligning spending with military doctrine.  To produce ammunition at a rate to match Russia would require long-term investment in production capacity.   Arms manufacturers need to make a profit and would need to lock in spending on ammunition on that scale for a long period to justify the capital investment needed to expand capacity.  This sort of decision calls into question the USA military doctrine and I can for sure see the Navy pushing back on any doctrinal shift toward spending away from spending needed to deal with a rising PLA in the Pacific.

GOP senator Hawley gave a speech recently that pretty much argued that limited USA resources should be shifted toward dealing with PRC and de-escalation against Russia would make sense.   It was always a difficult move for the USA to try to take on two Great Powers at once and in the end, it will make the make choices in a world of limited resources and competing domestic and foreign spending priorities.

This would imply that Russia is a Great Power.

[lfromnj]

Some of this Moldova stuff going on just seems like fear mongering by Ukraine to justify invading Transnistria in order to take the large ammo depot there.

[lfromnj]

Some of this Moldova stuff going on just seems like fear mongering by Ukraine to justify invading Transnistria in order to take the large ammo pool there.

Sounds like a good idea to me. I wouldn’t even need a pretence, just go in, take it, and relieve Moldova of a gigantic headache.

The amount of explosives in the area is huge. Estimated to be around the same as the explosive potential of Hiroshima. The Russians could theoretically destroy it first but yes if Ukraine could manage to get its hands on the ammo depot it could help quite a bit.

[lfromnj]

If they seize that airport, it's World War III. They're going to move into Romania. Russia doesn't respect the agreements it's in, why would they treat NATO as anything other than toilet paper?

Can you please take your meds.

[lfromnj]

Some of this Moldova stuff going on just seems like fear mongering by Ukraine to justify invading Transnistria in order to take the large ammo depot there.

Moldova itself is the one going on about it so the say it’s Ukrainian fear mongering is disingenuous

From a Moldovan standpoint, it makes all the sense in the world to get Ukraine to help them clear their territory (being that they cannot do it themselves).

Agreed but the comment I was replying too seemed to imply that Ukraine was the one pushing the Transdniester issues when it seems Moldova itself is raising the concern

I believe its mutual, where both sides would win. Moldova rids itself of a problematic tumor of Russians while Ukraine gains access to enough ammo to power the army for a few months.

[lfromnj]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/118uje2/ua_pov_prigozhin_publishes_photo_of_wagner_kia_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=13&utm_content=share_button

Wagner leader complains about lack of supply and posts 2 pics. One shows KIA in a day at Bakhmut. Around 50 bodies . Also shows shortages of unknown artillery shells.  Picture is NSFL so beware.

[lfromnj]

All those voting against this or present should be ashamed of themselves.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1628859900666191873

Interesting. Mali opposed it. Russia has been slowly buying influence in Francophone Africa by pushing France out as wel.

[lfromnj]

Incredibly asinine and insane that the Ukrainians are still in Bakhmut instead of leaving the city weeks ago.

Not even the Russians did anything close to this. Now they might really infact lose an entire grouping of brigades like they did in Mariupol. Not even I expected this to happen. I thought if the Russians ever got this close they would have done what they did in Lysychansk and left when the supply roads were still safe passage.

Didn't the Russians do the same at Lyman or Izium?

[lfromnj]

Nemtsov being alive would have made no difference in the past 8 years.  Him being president in 2000 might have though.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1625993969854214146

Ukrainian source basically confirms that 7% of a university program is dead which is probably like 15% of the male alumnus.  Sad to see and also shows worrying signs of Ukrainian casualties. This is both Zelensky's head university(he went to a subdivision in his home town) and Victoria Spartz's.

Even if its sad it is interesting to see elites dying for their country. Been a while since we saw something like this in America where ever since post WW2 we have merely sent the proles into all the wars while the elites actually died and fought in WW2 such as JFK giving up his back for the country.

[lfromnj]

As Bakhmut inevitably falls, Ukraine will soon launch an offensive towards the south to convince the West and NATO that they can still continue this war on their terms.

It is about to fall unless the Ukrainians have a trick up your ass.

[lfromnj]

As Bakhmut inevitably falls, Ukraine will soon launch an offensive towards the south to convince the West and NATO that they can still continue this war on their terms.

It is about to fall unless the Ukrainians have a trick up your ass.

Sorry, how long have we been hearing this now? Particularly from Woody?

He said in the 2nd week of Febuary it should in fall in 2 weeks. He was a bit overoptimistic for his side but the city basically surrounded on all directions except some dirt roads to the west. It really will either take some miracle to save it.

[lfromnj]

So this guy has an interesting idea on Bakmut
https://mobile.twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1630776302868340737
https://mobile.twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1630777045910167552
https://mobile.twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1630777576741273606

Casualties are unlikely to be favorable to Ukrainians under the current positions of being surrounded on 3 sides with only limited supplies coming through even if Russia is doing aggressive assaults.

[lfromnj]

Welp Ukraine is now openly stating why they won’t leave Bakmut yet. They’re having a 7-1 kill ratio they want to squeeze the most out of
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3677516-danilov-on-russian-military-losses-near-bakhmut-1-to-7-in-our-favor.html

If that were true then Ukraine's actions make perfect sense. I really doubt the actual casualty ratio is that favorable though.

Again even if the whole battle of Bakhmut had such favorable casualties it certainly isn't happening in the current position Ukraine is in.

[lfromnj]

Why does anyone feel the need to ask jaichind how he feels about any policy that implies a sense of interdependence, altruism, or compassion? He's agin' those things and has made that abundantly clear for many years.

I suppose they can't believe he is a complete and unashamed sociopath, but whether or not it's an online persona or his actual opinions he's sticking to them (and his insane Chinese national chauvinism which arguably makes him a traitor if he's a US citizen) and it clutters the thread that people keep asking him questions.

I've known, and in a couple of cases even been friends of a sort with, actual DSM-definition sociopaths who were at least capable of recognizing that there were situations, lots of them actually, in which their narrowly conceived self-interest and the interests of other people or of society as a whole converged or at least didn't need to conflict. Whatever's wrong with jaichind is even worse than that. You're right that it's high time the forum just learned to live with it rather than constantly trying to squeeze the milk of human kindness out of him to no avail, though--especially in a thread about a country that's facing real problems.

20 years ago jaichind actually said he opposed the BJP because of the riots being immoral.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1632870898997886978

Again even if the total casualties are true which are believable, the current casualties under current supply lines and firing angles for the Russian soldiers are not 5:1.