Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

For perspective: the Putin simps are gloating about taking half of a city with a prewar population of about seventy thousand after seven months.

While treating the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives as either not a big deal or actually bad for Ukraine

[Stranger in a strange land]

For perspective: the Putin simps are gloating about taking half of a city with a prewar population of about seventy thousand after seven months.

After having lost probably tens of thousands of dead.

In the meantime, the Russian Army has been attempting to advance across a field in Vulhedar for the past month, and failing to do so at the cost of hundreds of armored vehicles.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1631711697940389889
https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1631711992925888512

[Woody]

Always the important people that conveniently leaves first.

https://twitter.com/CByder/status/1631587107276836864

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1631609117381894144?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1631671464037429248?s=20

[Storr]

Meanwhile, on the diplomatic front:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1631703725399056384?s=20

The much discussed Global South laughs at Lavrov.

[Storr]

I'm guessing friendly fire since Yenakiieve is Russian held.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1631632523548557312?s=20

https://twitter.com/KpsZSU/status/1631648820630282242?s=20

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1631696751361916929?s=20

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Always the important people that conveniently leaves first.

https://twitter.com/CByder/status/1631587107276836864

Wow, how shocking. Scandalous. Ukraine must be the first country in history that has prioritized the safety of command.

The Eastern European way of war in general involves a pretty, shall we say, quantity-oriented approach to the safety of the enlisted grunts and has for a very long time. This is morally wrong and definitely one of the less pleasant things about what are already some pretty dysfunctional societies. It's complete and total BS to imply that this makes Ukraine's commitment to that tradition anywhere near as strong, and thus anywhere near as unconscionable, as Russia's is.

[Storr]

Never Forget:

https://twitter.com/iltaviesti/status/1631158606488825856?s=20

https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1631371845818523661?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I also wonder if they might be holding on to Bakhmut in order to boost morale.

That is very possible and potentially likely.  That would not be a wise move to base military strategy on domestic or foreign PR needs.  I am trying to give the Ukraine high command the benefit of the doubt.

To be clear, I think there's multiple things influencing Ukraine's strategy. Morale could be one of multiple factors.

[Woody]

Russia is apparently communist again:

https://twitter.com/runews/status/1631743936543817749

[Woody]

East bank Bakhmut has finally fallen & abandoned by the AFU:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1631751799110598663?cxt=HHwWjoC8ub...

[Hindsight was 2020]

Welp Ukraine is now openly stating why they won’t leave Bakmut yet. They’re having a 7-1 kill ratio they want to squeeze the most out of
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3677516-danilov-on-russian-military-losses-near-bakhmut-1-to-7-in-our-favor.html

[Woody]

They’re having a 7-1 kill ratio they want to squeeze the most out of

Yeah, okay bro.

Lot of Ukrainians are going to unnecessarily die for this action - you don't look at this map and think this is a favorable position:

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1631693040040439808

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Welp Ukraine is now openly stating why they won’t leave Bakmut yet. They’re having a 7-1 kill ratio they want to squeeze the most out of
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3677516-danilov-on-russian-military-losses-near-bakhmut-1-to-7-in-our-favor.html

If that were true then Ukraine's actions make perfect sense. I really doubt the actual casualty ratio is that favorable though.

[lfromnj]

Welp Ukraine is now openly stating why they won’t leave Bakmut yet. They’re having a 7-1 kill ratio they want to squeeze the most out of
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3677516-danilov-on-russian-military-losses-near-bakhmut-1-to-7-in-our-favor.html

If that were true then Ukraine's actions make perfect sense. I really doubt the actual casualty ratio is that favorable though.

Again even if the whole battle of Bakhmut had such favorable casualties it certainly isn't happening in the current position Ukraine is in.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Welp Ukraine is now openly stating why they won’t leave Bakmut yet. They’re having a 7-1 kill ratio they want to squeeze the most out of
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3677516-danilov-on-russian-military-losses-near-bakhmut-1-to-7-in-our-favor.html

If that were true then Ukraine's actions make perfect sense. I really doubt the actual casualty ratio is that favorable though.

Again even if the whole battle of Bakhmut had such favorable casualties it certainly isn't happening in the current position Ukraine is in.

Why not? Throughout the war Ukraine has shown a good ability at rotating out exhausted units and the injured while Russia has been using literal WW1 tactics and a lot of evidence that they leave even slightly wounded to die. So even in urban fights it wouldn’t be shocking Ukraine enjoys high kill ratios

[GoTfan]

Woodbury, why must you discount anything that gives Ukraine any credit?

[2952-0-0]

Meanwhile, on the diplomatic front:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1631703725399056384?s=20

The much discussed Global South laughs at Lavrov.

It wasn't the whole picture.

This means, the audience does believe western claims of defending Ukraine's sovereignty to be self-serving, but also recognizing the Kremlin's BS. The Global South is much more nuanced than a certain number of posters here claim.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Figuring that they are useless in the neutral country these days, Germany plans to buy 96 "Leopard 2" tanks back from Switzerland. The are intended for countries who are giving tanks to Ukraine.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1631561110787588097

Maybe a sign of our times: Due to recent record profits, arms manufacturer Rheinmetall enters the DAX, the German stock market index consisting of the 40 largest German companies in terms of market capitalization, replacing Fresenius Medical Care.

Along with Airbus, it's now one of two companies from the arms industry included in the DAX.


https://twitter.com/derspiegel/status/1631791958334279680?t=PpMFCywBdmYJMxVU54G5...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

They’re having a 7-1 kill ratio they want to squeeze the most out of

Yeah, okay bro.

Lot of Ukrainians are going to unnecessarily die for this action - you don't look at this map and think this is a favorable position:

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1631693040040439808

[dead0man]

Welp Ukraine is now openly stating why they won’t leave Bakmut yet. They’re having a 7-1 kill ratio they want to squeeze the most out of
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3677516-danilov-on-russian-military-losses-near-bakhmut-1-to-7-in-our-favor.html

Woody doesn't believe anything that doesn't fit his narrative.  Like lots of people.  It's one of those things that makes him normal.


(yes, of course it's fine to doubt the official numbers either nation puts out, but even if the numbers are half what Ukraine says they are, that's still a pretty good deal for them)

[Frodo]

Remember that pledge by NATO to send hundreds of Leopard II tanks to Ukraine in time for the spring counter-offensive? It turns out to have been full of sh*t for various reasons, not least of which is the general reluctance to give Ukraine offensive weapons even it means they could enter negotiations with Russia on a militarily stronger footing:

West fails to deliver tanks to Ukraine due to resurgent reluctance and logistics

It almost seems like the west is content to let Ukraine and Russia slug it out until they are mutually exhausted.  And then have Ukraine partitioned as part of a peace plan roughly along the lines set by the Chinese.  It is a disgrace, and shows how short-sighted our leadership is when we have it in our hands to knock out Russia as a Great Power once and for all, removing its threat to Europe.  

[Hindsight was 2020]

Remember that pledge by NATO to send hundreds of Leopard II tanks to Ukraine in time for the spring counter-offensive? It turns out to have been full of sh*t for various reasons, not least of which is the general reluctance to give Ukraine offensive weapons even it means they could enter negotiations with Russia on a militarily stronger footing:

West fails to deliver tanks to Ukraine due to resurgent reluctance and logistics

It almost seems like the west is content to let Ukraine and Russia slug it out until they are mutually exhausted.  And then have Ukraine partitioned as part of a peace plan roughly along the lines set by the Chinese.  It is a disgrace, and shows how short-sighted our leadership is when we have it in our hands to knock out Russia as a Great Power once and for all, removing its threat to Europe.  

There is a lot of fog of war going on about the tanks status as we see stories like this and the NYT with similar EU actually has no functioning Leopards to give stories but then we see vids of leopards in action in the field already

[Virginiá]

When you combine with all the modernized T-72 tanks they are getting, many of which are fairly heavily upgraded, it's not a bad set of commitments for their early-mid 2023 offensives. One of the downsides so far is that some will not arrive early. The Leopard 1s and the Abrams won't get there in full until late this year or next. But yea it's far short in modern-ish western tanks (like Leopard 2s). A fair bit of that is due to smaller actually operational tank reserves than assumed, and some geopolitical issues like Finland currently being stalled on NATO membership by Turkey and Hungary, which gave Finland cold feet because they share a large border with Russia - that's understandable. Honestly, there was never going to be many hundreds of Leopard 2s to begin with. Most European countries have less operational tanks than that, and it wasn't realistic to expect them to gut so many of their own active duty military armored units without any replacement. Particularly for Greece & Turkey, who collectively have a significant share of Leopard 2s in service - over 700, and are not open to stripping their stocks right now, given the high temperature of the region.

The US has always been the major force in this. Only we really have so many tanks in reserve that we could give hundreds to Ukraine. Same for the Bradleys (to a lesser degree), but the US so far is against doing this for a number of reasons, beyond that token 31 Abrams not due to arrive in time for Ukraine's next offensive (or maybe not this year, even). FWIW, the US would likely need Congress to approve a lot more military aid if we significantly upped our commitments of Abrams and Bradleys. The US wouldn't send these without support vehicles, so a couple hundred Abrams tanks would be around a 1 - 1.2 billion dollar aid package. The military aid money now just isn't enough to last through Summer if they start throwing expensive systems en masse. I also expect how successful Ukraine is in their next offensive to notably influence how motivated their allies are in digging around for new modern weapons for Ukraine.