Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1631813160763006977?s=20

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-04/putin-gets-military-tech-chips-semiconductors-despite-eu-and-g-7-sanctions

"Russia Is Getting Round Sanctions to Secure Supply of Key Chips for War"

Bloomberg reports that the Russia military is able to meet its chip needs mostly by going through Turkey and UAE to buy what they need.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Figuring that they are useless in the neutral country these days, Germany plans to buy 96 "Leopard 2" tanks back from Switzerland. The are intended for countries who are giving tanks to Ukraine.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1631561110787588097

Maybe a sign of our times: Due to recent record profits, arms manufacturer Rheinmetall enters the DAX, the German stock market index consisting of the 40 largest German companies in terms of market capitalization, replacing Fresenius Medical Care.

Along with Airbus, it's now one of two companies from the arms industry included in the DAX.


https://twitter.com/derspiegel/status/1631791958334279680?t=PpMFCywBdmYJMxVU54G5...

In other Rheinmetall news:


https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1631946148452655104


The Panther KF51 is the fourth-generation main battle tank successor to the Leopard 2. The CEO of Rheinmetall said that the plant could be sufficiently protected by air defence systems.

[Red Velvet]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-04/putin-gets-military-tech-chips-semiconductors-despite-eu-and-g-7-sanctions

"Russia Is Getting Round Sanctions to Secure Supply of Key Chips for War"

Bloomberg reports that the Russia military is able to meet its chip needs mostly by going through Turkey and UAE to buy what they need.

And Turkey is a NATO country, right? Do they need a consensus to do anything or can countries act independently?

Because for consensus decisions, I can see Turkey blocking a lot of stuff. Russia would feel safe to take back all the past-Soviet territories even if part of NATO. That includes the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) alongside Ukraine and Moldova, which currently appear to be the main targets.

If the West kinda ignores a large country like Ukraine calls for more involvement, even if they are not part of NATO, it’s kinda hard to see them wanting to start WWIII because of Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania, even if those are in NATO.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-04/putin-gets-military-tech-chips-semiconductors-despite-eu-and-g-7-sanctions

"Russia Is Getting Round Sanctions to Secure Supply of Key Chips for War"

Bloomberg reports that the Russia military is able to meet its chip needs mostly by going through Turkey and UAE to buy what they need.

And Turkey is a NATO country, right? Do they need a consensus to do anything or can countries act independently?

Because for consensus decisions, I can see Turkey blocking a lot of stuff. Russia would feel safe to take back all the past-Soviet territories even if part of NATO. That includes the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) alongside Ukraine and Moldova, which currently appear to be the main targets.

If the West kinda ignores a large country like Ukraine calls for more involvement, even if they are not part of NATO, it’s kinda hard to see them wanting to start WWIII because of Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania, even if those are in NATO.

Turkey is slightly pro-Ukraine in the sense that they have no problem if Russia keeps all the areas it took over but Turkey does not want Russia to take over Odesa which would be bad strategically for Turkey in the Black Sea.

Of course, Turkey is in difficult economic trouble so anything that helps them get some extra cash would be welcome even if it is to help Russia buy some chips.

I showed this chart before but on the whole Turkey's population is fairly positive toward Russia

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1631919051743043584
Sounds like the withdrawal of Bakmut is happening today

[Middle-aged Europe]

Figuring that they are useless in the neutral country these days, Germany plans to buy 96 "Leopard 2" tanks back from Switzerland. The are intended for countries who are giving tanks to Ukraine.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1631561110787588097

Maybe a sign of our times: Due to recent record profits, arms manufacturer Rheinmetall enters the DAX, the German stock market index consisting of the 40 largest German companies in terms of market capitalization, replacing Fresenius Medical Care.

Along with Airbus, it's now one of two companies from the arms industry included in the DAX.


https://twitter.com/derspiegel/status/1631791958334279680?t=PpMFCywBdmYJMxVU54G5...

In other Rheinmetall news:


https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1631946148452655104


The Panther KF51 is the fourth-generation main battle tank successor to the Leopard 2. The CEO of Rheinmetall said that the plant could be sufficiently protected by air defence systems.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1631992383175786497?t=yY1xTQgJRmevIBXZ5kmW7w...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1631933841077157888
https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1631955518720729090

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-04/putin-gets-military-tech-chips-semiconductors-despite-eu-and-g-7-sanctions

"Russia Is Getting Round Sanctions to Secure Supply of Key Chips for War"

Bloomberg reports that the Russia military is able to meet its chip needs mostly by going through Turkey and UAE to buy what they need.

And Turkey is a NATO country, right? Do they need a consensus to do anything or can countries act independently?

Because for consensus decisions, I can see Turkey blocking a lot of stuff. Russia would feel safe to take back all the past-Soviet territories even if part of NATO. That includes the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) alongside Ukraine and Moldova, which currently appear to be the main targets.

If the West kinda ignores a large country like Ukraine calls for more involvement, even if they are not part of NATO, it’s kinda hard to see them wanting to start WWIII because of Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania, even if those are in NATO.

Turkey is slightly pro-Ukraine in the sense that they have no problem if Russia keeps all the areas it took over but Turkey does not want Russia to take over Odesa which would be bad strategically for Turkey in the Black Sea.

Of course, Turkey is in difficult economic trouble so anything that helps them get some extra cash would be welcome even if it is to help Russia buy some chips.

I showed this chart before but on the whole Turkey's population is fairly positive toward Russia

lol. After claiming for months that most Americans are turning against Ukraine, you post something that shows only 5% of Americans see Russia as an ally.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/dpa_intl/status/1632010884057800705?t=RNYTe_S-5hAHCyEdN5eD4Q...

[jaichind]

lol. After claiming for months that most Americans are turning against Ukraine, you post something that shows only 5% of Americans see Russia as an ally.

There is a difference between viewing a party in a negative light versus what level of funding should go to fight said party.  One can view Russia in a negative light but still feel that the level of funding to Ukraine has exceeded what is logical or preferred.

[Torie]

lol. After claiming for months that most Americans are turning against Ukraine, you post something that shows only 5% of Americans see Russia as an ally.

There is a difference between viewing a party in a negative light versus what level of funding should go to fight said party.  One can view Russia in a negative light but still feel that the level of funding to Ukraine has exceeded what is logical or preferred.

OK I will bite. What is your Goldilocks level of aid to Ukraine if at a level different from what is currently in place?

[jaichind]

I understand the ratings for Boyko but I wonder why Poroshenko and Tymoshenko's ratings are so low, especially Poroshenko.  I would argue that Poroshenko did an excellent job of building up the Ukraine army during his tenure to get to a situation where they are outperforming relative to expectations in this war.

[jaichind]

lol. After claiming for months that most Americans are turning against Ukraine, you post something that shows only 5% of Americans see Russia as an ally.

There is a difference between viewing a party in a negative light versus what level of funding should go to fight said party.  One can view Russia in a negative light but still feel that the level of funding to Ukraine has exceeded what is logical or preferred.

OK I will bite. What is your Goldilocks level of aid to Ukraine if at a level different from what is currently in place?

My personal opinion would be: I want the level of USA economic and military aid to Ukraine to be $0.
 I view this as an Eastern Slavic civil war.  I wish both sides the best of luck and will let them go at it and may the best side win.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/india-pm-modi-calls-common-ground-global-issues-g20-meeting-2023-03-02/

"Blinken, Lavrov meet for first time since Ukraine invasion"

My reading of what is being said in the Indian media is that it was Modi that forced both sides to meet as a favor to him.

[Torie]

lol. After claiming for months that most Americans are turning against Ukraine, you post something that shows only 5% of Americans see Russia as an ally.

There is a difference between viewing a party in a negative light versus what level of funding should go to fight said party.  One can view Russia in a negative light but still feel that the level of funding to Ukraine has exceeded what is logical or preferred.

OK I will bite. What is your Goldilocks level of aid to Ukraine if at a level different from what is currently in place?

My personal opinion would be: I want the level of USA economic and military aid to Ukraine to be $0.
 I view this as an Eastern Slavic civil war.  I wish both sides the best of luck and will let them go at it and may the best side win.

Thank you for your most candid response. That translates into Ukraine becoming a Russian province, with the number of Ukrainians continuing to live there as opposed to fleeing or being killed uncertain.

What is your perfect policy as to taking Ukrainian refugees in?

[jaichind]

Thank you for your most candid response. That translates into Ukraine becoming a Russian province, with the number of Ukrainians continuing to live there as opposed to fleeing or being killed uncertain.

What is your perfect policy as to taking Ukrainian refugees in?

My personal policy preference is that the number of refugees the USA should take in should be 0, from Ukraine or any other part of the world.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why does anyone feel the need to ask jaichind how he feels about any policy that implies a sense of interdependence, altruism, or compassion? He's agin' those things and has made that abundantly clear for many years.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1632068634444181505
It seems the UK and US are going to quietly increase the Challengers and Abrams to Ukraine make up for the Leopard setbacks

[Lord Halifax]

Why does anyone feel the need to ask jaichind how he feels about any policy that implies a sense of interdependence, altruism, or compassion? He's agin' those things and has made that abundantly clear for many years.

I suppose they can't believe he is a complete and unashamed sociopath, but whether or not it's an online persona or his actual opinions he's sticking to them (and his insane Chinese national chauvinism which arguably makes him a traitor if he's a US citizen) and it clutters the thread that people keep asking him questions.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why does anyone feel the need to ask jaichind how he feels about any policy that implies a sense of interdependence, altruism, or compassion? He's agin' those things and has made that abundantly clear for many years.

I suppose they can't believe he is a complete and unashamed sociopath, but whether or not it's an online persona or his actual opinions he's sticking to them (and his insane Chinese national chauvinism which arguably makes him a traitor if he's a US citizen) and it clutters the thread that people keep asking him questions.

I've known, and in a couple of cases even been friends of a sort with, actual DSM-definition sociopaths who were at least capable of recognizing that there were situations, lots of them actually, in which their narrowly conceived self-interest and the interests of other people or of society as a whole converged or at least didn't need to conflict. Whatever's wrong with jaichind is even worse than that. You're right that it's high time the forum just learned to live with it rather than constantly trying to squeeze the milk of human kindness out of him to no avail, though--especially in a thread about a country that's facing real problems.

[lfromnj]

Why does anyone feel the need to ask jaichind how he feels about any policy that implies a sense of interdependence, altruism, or compassion? He's agin' those things and has made that abundantly clear for many years.

I suppose they can't believe he is a complete and unashamed sociopath, but whether or not it's an online persona or his actual opinions he's sticking to them (and his insane Chinese national chauvinism which arguably makes him a traitor if he's a US citizen) and it clutters the thread that people keep asking him questions.

I've known, and in a couple of cases even been friends of a sort with, actual DSM-definition sociopaths who were at least capable of recognizing that there were situations, lots of them actually, in which their narrowly conceived self-interest and the interests of other people or of society as a whole converged or at least didn't need to conflict. Whatever's wrong with jaichind is even worse than that. You're right that it's high time the forum just learned to live with it rather than constantly trying to squeeze the milk of human kindness out of him to no avail, though--especially in a thread about a country that's facing real problems.

20 years ago jaichind actually said he opposed the BJP because of the riots being immoral.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In a way, I actually respect Jaichind's honesty. He makes no pretense that his positions are the product of any moral or even epistemic principles other than whatever maximizes his bottom line. There are other posters whose positions are substantively identical to Jaichind's, but who are just better at disguising the shameless, crass self-interest that motivates them under a veneer of profound, high-minded geopolitical reflection (a certain brown UK avatar comes to mind in particular).

[jaichind]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/ukraine-running-low-ammo-europe-faces-pressure-produce-rcna73231

"Ukraine is running low on ammo. Europe faces pressure to produce more."

An ambitious proposal made by Estonia and reviewed by NBC News would have Europe increase 155 millimeter artillery shell production by seven times, moving manufacturing capacity from 240,000 to 300,000 shells per year to up to 2.1 million shells annually.

The problem is Ukraine is asking for 250K rounds a month.

https://www.ft.com/content/75ee9701-aa93-4c5d-a1bc-7a51422280fd

"Ukraine asks EU for 250,000 artillery shells a month"

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why does anyone feel the need to ask jaichind how he feels about any policy that implies a sense of interdependence, altruism, or compassion? He's agin' those things and has made that abundantly clear for many years.

I suppose they can't believe he is a complete and unashamed sociopath, but whether or not it's an online persona or his actual opinions he's sticking to them (and his insane Chinese national chauvinism which arguably makes him a traitor if he's a US citizen) and it clutters the thread that people keep asking him questions.

I've known, and in a couple of cases even been friends of a sort with, actual DSM-definition sociopaths who were at least capable of recognizing that there were situations, lots of them actually, in which their narrowly conceived self-interest and the interests of other people or of society as a whole converged or at least didn't need to conflict. Whatever's wrong with jaichind is even worse than that. You're right that it's high time the forum just learned to live with it rather than constantly trying to squeeze the milk of human kindness out of him to no avail, though--especially in a thread about a country that's facing real problems.

20 years ago jaichild actually said he opposed the BJP because of the riots being immoral.

He must have decided Indian Muslims are on his sh**t list since then. It is what it is.