2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[lfromnj]

Looking at tourist counties

A lot of them are having pretty big swings towards Biden, like Leelanau county MI, Dare county NC etc.

[lfromnj]

Counting bias seems reversed in California this year,

Kings and Tulare are both farming central valley counties Trump won by low double digits. Biden is leading in Tulare by 3 with 50% of the vote in but in Kings with 85% of the vote he is keeping his 2016 margin of Trump +12.

[lfromnj]

Trump won, and polling is dead. Most of you won't feel the brunt of it. If I can stay in the country, see you in 4+ years. bye.

Imagine being this irrational, yikes.

Ironic from the dude who said Elliot county might go D because Biden's a white dude.

[lfromnj]

Also my belief in Wisconsin being the bluest and Michigan being the reddest of the big three continues to be confirmed.

First of all that has not been confirmed. Second of all, “your belief” that Trump would win the election while losing WI and PA because of MI has DEFINITELY not been confirmed. In fact that’s impossible now that Biden’s won AZ and NE-02.

Dude, how can you STILL be so damn arrogant after being humiliated with your Biden 413 map? My prediction is almost certainly going to be better than yours in many ways.

My 413 map was just giving Biden all the toss-ups. I was never close to certain it was gonna happen. My CONFIDENCE map was 290, which looks about right. I certainly didn’t run around the forum arrogantly telling everyone Biden was definitely gonna win 413 with no evidence backing me up. And said many times it could be a lot less.

And again, your prediction  is LITERALLY impossible now.

But you did think Elliot county even had a chance of going D.

[lfromnj]

The fajita districts are scarily close for Democrats, Cuellar is up by 3 and so is Gonzalez, I think the last few votes there should be D leaning but still very good news for GOP redistricting in 2022. Especially with depolarization they can argue for just perhaps 2 Rio Grande D packs and crack the rest for Hispanic Republicans.

[lfromnj]

Also my belief in Wisconsin being the bluest and Michigan being the reddest of the big three continues to be confirmed.

First of all that has not been confirmed. Second of all, “your belief” that Trump would win the election while losing WI and PA because of MI has DEFINITELY not been confirmed. In fact that’s impossible now that Biden’s won AZ and NE-02.

Dude, how can you STILL be so damn arrogant after being humiliated with your Biden 413 map? My prediction is almost certainly going to be better than yours in many ways.

My 413 map was just giving Biden all the toss-ups. I was never certain it was gonna happen. My CONFIDENCE map was 290, which looks about right.

I love watching you twist your own predictions to seem justified in your months of boasting.

I’m not twisting a damn thing. Again, I said MANY times that Biden could win with less. I just chose to give him every state I could see going either way in my no toss-up man (and all seem like they are gonna turn out pretty close) for the hell of it. Because that’s what I was hoping for. Because I’m not a doomer who gets off on despair. Never claimed it was definitely gonna happen — again, my CONFIDENCE map was the states I was CONFIDENT Biden would win — and certainly didn’t boast about it. REALLY ironic for someone who has changed his name to “I will now accept my accolades” because he feels smug about his... wrong prediction to accuse others of “boasting,” bu the way.

Texas is not "close"

neither is Florida

Eat your crow like a  man, like Monstro and I do, I admit I was wrong on those 2 states.

[lfromnj]

Trump is going to win. He's leading in every uncalled state other than NV, AZ, and Maine.

That’s irrelevant. What matters is what vote has been reported and what hasn’t.

Weird, wasn't irrelevant early in the night with Boone county Kentucky right?

Btw I agree, I don't know who wins but eat your crow first.

[lfromnj]

Clinton got a 282k lead out of Milwaukee county
Biden only has a 53k lead out Milwaukee countee

Trump only leads Wisconsin by 110k

I think Biden gets Milwaukee and wins Wisconsin somewhat closely if he gets 200k+ lead out of Milwaukee

Also right Milwaukee county is 59-38 Biden, Clinton won here 65-28. just for perspective

Clinton got 288k total and a 160k lead .

[lfromnj]

Clinton got a 282k lead out of Milwaukee county
Biden only has a 53k lead out Milwaukee countee

Trump only leads Wisconsin by 110k

I think Biden gets Milwaukee and wins Wisconsin somewhat closely if he gets 200k+ lead out of Milwaukee

Also right Milwaukee county is 59-38 Biden, Clinton won here 65-28. just for perspective

Clinton got 288k total and a 160k lead .

oh my bad, this isnt good for Biden, recount territory?

Possibly.

[lfromnj]

Trump leading Nassau with 88% in

[lfromnj]

https://www.tmj4.com/electionblog

Latest updates:

1:22 p.m. -- Milwaukee ballots just shy of 2016 total

Milwaukee had 78,160 voters at the polls on Election Day. Including absentee votes which have yet to be fully counted, Milwaukee had 247,501 votes in this election. That’s a few hundred shy of the 2016 turnout: 247,836, Ben Jordan reports.

MILWAUKEE COUNTY HAD LESS VOTES THAN 2016

[lfromnj]

You can see clear evidence of the red mirage in the county data in Pennsylvania and Michigan: Trump is running notably behind his 2016 margin in most major counties that have reported almost all of their vote, but way ahead of his 2016 margin in all the counties that still have a ton of vote left to count.  (This trend shows up in Wisconsin too to a slightly lesser extent.)

I have noticed this too.  The northern Wisconsin counties were red when the vote was like 60% in and then when they went to 100% the 3 of them all flipped.  It's clear that the second the absentee ballots are dumped into the result it's heavily Biden no matter what county they are coming from.

The NW one has a similar margin to 2016, the other 2 also have some resorts/tourists areas which in general are swinging D across the  nation.
Trump has improved in much of rural Wisconsin.

[lfromnj]

https://www.tmj4.com/electionblog

Latest updates:

1:22 p.m. -- Milwaukee ballots just shy of 2016 total

Milwaukee had 78,160 voters at the polls on Election Day. Including absentee votes which have yet to be fully counted, Milwaukee had 247,501 votes in this election. That’s a few hundred shy of the 2016 turnout: 247,836, Ben Jordan reports.

MILWAUKEE COUNTY HAD LESS VOTES THAN 2016

So this is just some guy's blog?

TMJ4 is the local media in Wisconsin

[lfromnj]

Pathetic result by Lujan by the way

Kinda like WA 2018 senate, news casters /weathermen are quite popular

[lfromnj]

Yeah it’s time to push left on fiscal issues and right on social issues.

Ew no. You really think that's what cost us in Fla and TX?

Considering you see 60 point swings in poor rural Tejano counties?

Yes lol.

[lfromnj]

CBS projects VA for Biden.

That it took this long to definitively project Virginia is certainly not good news for Biden. It appears that he is going to win the state by an underwhelming margin at this point, perhaps slightly less than Northam's margin of victory in 2017. This was a state where it was thought Democrats would win by double digits. And Bob Good won in VA-05, so another disappointment for Democrats in the House.

VA05th was always Likely R.

Anyway Biden did win VA beach by 9 points, looks like it will follow Colorado.

[lfromnj]

I don't know why anybody in their mind would believe that Berine whould be doing better after seeing what just happed to Biden in FL. The Fact is Trump effectively convinced many Cuban and Venezuelan voters that Joe Biden of all people was a socialist

Trump attacks worked and that should scare the heck out of AOC or any Dems that supports Berinie. If anything the Berinie whould has lost Florida by even bigger numbers
I also think that  Trump would have also won AZ and been well on his way to winning all of the Midwest states.

Bernie would have gotten other votes than Biden couldn't get.  Bernie had been very good at attracting apolitical voters, unlike Biden and other centrists, because he brings up issues the likes of Biden ignore.  Like you said, Trump and Republicans call everyone a communist or whatever, so there was nothing to gain by nominating a centrist like Biden.
Also if you think Bernie would have lost Arizona, you know absolutely nothing about Arizona and why it is becoming a blue state.  

Exactly, Bernie would've won Arizona very handily. This is just mind-numbing right now.

What universe are you guys living in lol

the two dem that AZ just elected are Mark Kelly and Kristen Sinema
they are the furthest from Berinie as you possibly can get

Arizona is a state where Democrats can get 45% of the white vote. Its honestly closer to Colorado.

[lfromnj]

Livingston County (exurban Detroit) went from Trump +29 to Trump +18.

It's just hard to envision Trump winning Michigan unless Detroit punches below its weight.

Its now Trump +22

Is no one else noticing the fact that 95% is in Gennesee county and Trump is winning it!? This was a double digit Clinton county and it was 62% obama!

[lfromnj]

What are the chances of a Trump win now?

Hard to say, but less than 50% if you trust the New York Times saying Biden is currently favoured in Georgia.

The fact almost all of Michigan's outstanding vote is in the Detroit metro really lowers Trump's probability in my mind

Also worth underscoring the fact that it's going to be hugely Democratic. Right now, Biden seems to be underperforming Clinton in Wayne county. Does anyone really believe that's going to be what we end up with? Nah. Biden's underperformance is a reflection of the fact that so many of his votes are so disproportionately locked up in the mail-in ballots. When all is said and done, the outstanding vote there is going to be a Biden tidal wave. I think we can expect the same dynamic in quite a few of these places where Biden seems to be underperforming.

Biden is doing really bad in Genesee county Michigan which is almost all in and basically a mini version of Wayne with a smaller Detroit.

[lfromnj]

What are the chances of a Trump win now?

Hard to say, but less than 50% if you trust the New York Times saying Biden is currently favoured in Georgia.

The fact almost all of Michigan's outstanding vote is in the Detroit metro really lowers Trump's probability in my mind

Also worth underscoring the fact that it's going to be hugely Democratic. Right now, Biden seems to be underperforming Clinton in Wayne county. Does anyone really believe that's going to be what we end up with? Nah. Biden's underperformance is a reflection of the fact that so many of his votes are so disproportionately locked up in the mail-in ballots. When all is said and done, the outstanding vote there is going to be a Biden tidal wave. I think we can expect the same dynamic in quite a few of these places where Biden seems to be underperforming.

Biden is doing really bad in Genesee county Michigan which is almost all in and basically a mini version of Wayne with a smaller Detroit.

I have already mentioned that the county hasn't reported any absentee ballots for the HD located entirely within the city of Flint. Also, if you go on the Genesee Co. Clerk's website, you will find that their vote totals match the NYTs but they are only showing 71% of precincts reporting, not 96%

https://www.gc4me.com/departments/county_clerks1/docs/Elections/202011/Cumulative%20Results-11-4-2020%2003-51-12%20AM.pdf

Thanks was curious about that, should have checked better, just found it a crazy swing.

[lfromnj]

Maine senate is looking better than it was, hard not to consider it a tossup (again) now, right?

The most in County is Cumberland which is the most D one.

[lfromnj]

The New York Times hilariously has Peters winning Genesee County while Biden loses it. I'm assuming that's an error.

Nope James is doing better in woke areas like Leelanau while Trump does better in working class areas. However Flint AV isn't in yet for that county.

[lfromnj]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

No because it would be as stupid as talking about New York shifting 10 points to the right, we don't have enough >90% in counties.  I did mention Nassau at 88% in  being Trump +2 which was interesting but I would still like to wait.

[lfromnj]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Shut up, you hack. The Senate is gone and you're still trying to run victory laps. Celebrate the tiny, narrow victory of Mr. Electable all you want, but this was not a successful night by any stretch of the imagination for the Democratic Party.

Oh are you his alt? Not surprising.

The Senate was never as safe a bet as the presidency either BTW and for reasons already explained, was not as important. You can cry about the Senate if you want. I’m gonna be happy the worst president in history will be ejected, likely by ironically the same EV margin he won by in 2016. (Not that narrow, especially since Biden will actually win the popular vote by a decent margin). I’m also gonna make fun of people for calling me things like “hack” when they got all smug and insufferable earlier about their terrible predictions that are now falling apart.

You mean like you thought it would either be 1980 or 1932?

You mean like Elliot county could go D

Kenton/Campbell do go D, and Franklin will easily go D?

[lfromnj]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.    

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

Latinos in most areas swung r from what I've seen. El paso wasn't as bad for Ds but still a few points swing